Commentareum

  • Recent Comments

    • AvatarAaron David in reply to Stillwater on The Democrats’ TrumpAnd that is a loser.
    • AvatarStillwater in reply to PD Shaw on The Democrats’ TrumpSeems like a good hypothesis to me. I'd only add that environmentalism and neoliberalism have some similarities in that regard: both subvert the interests of the individual to a greater, or even a collective, good. Job losses resulting from outsourcing and offshoring were/are justified as creating jobs elsewhere while lowering the cost of goods and services to American consumers. Job losses from environmental policies are justified by preventing global harms that may never directly effect that person and may take years to manifest. People are treated like statistics. Or something like that, anyway.
    • AvatarAaron David in reply to North on The Democrats’ TrumpSetting aside my feelings about Obama, that IS “he’s good enough.” Obama was 10years ago, Biden isn't the first black president, he isn't coming off of Bush's tenure, he isn't lightning in a bottle... He isn't offering anything new. Now, I set aside my feeling about Obama, it might help if you do the same. Right now we have the best economy in decades, the left is split between the woke and centrists... How will he bridge that? What is Biden offering to make lives better? Nostalgia. That might, might, be enough, but do you want to count on that? Its what Romney offered, Gore offered, and countless others have offered.
    • AvatarStillwater in reply to Aaron David on The Democrats’ TrumpHere's another guess: Biden, who had months to think about and prepare in advance of declaring, hasn't put forward any policy proposals or specifics or even the outline of the direction he wants to take the country in, and that's by design. All he's running on is "beat Trump", and he'll stick to only that message as tightly as he can, for as long as he can. All he wants you to know is that he wants to beat Trump.
    • AvatarChip Daniels in reply to Aaron David on The Democrats’ Trump"Then what is he running on?" Make America Great Again.
    • AvatarNorth in reply to Aaron David on The Democrats’ TrumpTo pick up where Obama left off and resume working along those lines and in a similar manner. You loathe Obama's tenure and you've given your reasons why but a large portion of the centrist voters and an overwhelming percentage of Democrats hold Obama in high esteem and think he did a good job. That is not a nostalgia pitch and it's most assuredly not "he's good enough".
    • AvatarAaron David in reply to North on The Democrats’ TrumpThen what is he running on?
    • AvatarMarchmaine in reply to North on The Democrats’ TrumpIs this where I put the "you had one job .gif"?
    • AvatarMarchmaine in reply to PD Shaw on The Democrats’ TrumpGood observation, esp. with regards recent analysis from Australia... might have to bump that up the rhetorical calculations.
    • AvatarStillwater in reply to North on The Democrats’ TrumpMy guess: this moment right now is the high point of Joe's primary run. No one has gone in against him and he hasn't been challenged on policy specifics. He hasn't had to respond or react. He's floating. He's still clean. Pretty soon the knives will come out.* *Or maybe not {echoes of 2015 are suddenly ringing in my ears}
    • AvatarOscar Gordon on Songs!I am loving this, my playlist for the drive next weekend is getting some new additions.
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to Slade the Leveller on Songs!My favorite was always Fire Woman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8g6h1vI4Xv0
    • AvatarJaybird in reply to Stillwater on The Democrats’ TrumpThere was one seat in particular that the dems did *NOT* lose during those elections. It was the one in the Oval Office.
    • AvatarJaybird in reply to Stillwater on The Democrats’ TrumpIt's not the sole reason, but Obama's likability was fairly high (through the goddamn ROOF in 2008, only slightly lower in 2012). Trump's likability? Also fairly high in 2016 (looks like it'll be lower in 2020). Insofar as likability goes, I think that a reasonable case can be made that the more likable candidate won the last however many elections. Like, we have to go back to Nixon to find counter-examples (and we've no way of seeing what Nixon looked like in 1971).
    • AvatarPD Shaw in reply to Stillwater on The Democrats’ TrumpI wonder if it was more environmental policy? A lot of rust belt jobs rely on trade; the media has been identifying a lot of those the last couple of years. But the counties that shifted the most from D to R appear to have a lot of mineral and timber extraction jobs. Also, a lot of people's middle-class lifestyles in the Midwest are more closely related to driving than on the coasts. Just a hypothesis I've been thinking about since the Australia elections, where issues of global warming are probably more salient and may have cut against the party to the left. Not to say that environmental policies should be neglected, but telling people that their job will disappear to be replaced by jobs to be created some day as a 3-level environmental tech with their own cubicle may do little to suppress personal anxieties.
    • AvatarOscar Gordon on Weekend Plans Post: High School GraduationsThis weekend, we pack up the house for the move back to WA. The shipping containers get delivered tomorrow morning, and we have a bit of a moving sale this weekend to get rid of some older furniture that we aren't going to bother trying to move across country. Sunday one of the Aunties flies in to help with Bug during this last bit.
    • AvatarNorth in reply to Aaron David on The Democrats’ TrumpGood thing for Biden, then, that he's not running on that message.
    • AvatarStillwater in reply to Chip Daniels on The Democrats’ TrumpOr, to repeat one of Jaybird's oft cited factoids: Democrats lost a thousand seats while Obama was president....because people didn't like Hillary.
    • AvatarChip Daniels in reply to Jaybird on The Democrats’ TrumpHow does this explain the 2010 and 2014 results? The GOP had its massive sweep election in 2010, when HRC was nowhere to be found.
    • AvatarPD Shaw in reply to PD Shaw on The Democrats’ TrumpRemember the Maine (2nd Congressional District)!!!
    • AvatarStillwater in reply to Jaybird on The Democrats’ TrumpIHonestly, Jaybird, I'd like to agree with you that Hillary-hate was the sole reason Trump won the election, but it's hard to square that with at least two other things. First, Trump was equally disliked in the electorate, which effectively nullifies any GOTV (or Stay at home and don't vote) advantage Hillary's disapprovals may have given him. Second, it doesn't explain the red-shift which had been occurring in those Blue Wall states since Obama's first term began.
    • AvatarJaybird on Songs!An AC/DC song played on the radio while driving for lunch. It doesn't matter which one. They're all the same song. (Though if I had to pick one to turn up loudest, it'd be "Whole Lotta Rosie".) This song also played on the way there. It needed to be turned up too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRqP52c0OLU
    • AvatarStillwater in reply to Stillwater on The Democrats’ TrumpThinking about this a bit more, I remembered that item #1 in Michael Moore's 2016 post predicting Trump would win the rust belt states. They'd been trending red since 2010, and (according to Moore) Obama's support of the TPP and other NAFTA-like trade agreements was a primary reason. fwiw, anyway
    • AvatarPD Shaw in reply to Jaybird on The Democrats’ TrumpObama also won Iowa and Florida.
    • AvatarJaybird in reply to Chip Daniels on The Democrats’ TrumpAllow me to copy/paste my argument again: I don’t know that Obama drove people to the GOP as much as Hillary did. I mean, Obama *WON* Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
    • AvatarChip Daniels in reply to Stillwater on The Democrats’ TrumpIf the argument is that the Rust Belt voters like Democrats, but found something uniquely bad about HRC, the best test would be how much ticket-splitting there was. Best I can tell, after 2008 the GOP saw gains across the Rust Belt in 2010, 2012, and 2014 in all the downballot races where neither Obama nor HRC were the choices.
    • AvatarDoctor Jay in reply to George Turner on From the Hill to the Rose Garden & Back Again: A Drama in 4 ActsWell George, let's suppose this "coup attempt" thing drags along with tantalizing hints, but little substance for the next year. Or maybe longer. What then? At what point do you start to wonder if they in fact, have anything to go on at all? I mean, I've been wrong about at least one thing like this and it died hard, that's for sure. I find it important to think in advance how far I'm willing to take things on faith from people.
    • AvatarAnne in reply to Maribou on Songs!Thismy Violent Femmes that MUST be played loud https://youtu.be/Ra8VTlXVqUQ
    • AvatarStillwater in reply to Jaybird on The Democrats’ TrumpShe lost in the rust belt. Which isn't a per capita thing.
    • AvatarJaybird in reply to Stillwater on The Democrats’ TrumpShe got fewer votes than Obama did despite the population of the country growing significantly. It's a "per capita" thing.
    • AvatarDark Matter in reply to Philip h on From the Hill to the Rose Garden & Back Again: A Drama in 4 ActsI don't understand where this "Dems don't fight" meme comes from. ...relentless ads asking pointedly if they are willing to uphold the Constitution There is nothing in the Constitution that prevents a vile scoundrel from holding office. You're also assuming guilt, that you can prove guilt, and that this won't look like a witch hunt. In terms of crimes we've got Trump cheating on his wife, accepting less than $2k of anti-HRC information from the Russians (which might mean a wiki look up), and toying with firing Mueller. Trump's reasoning could make that last either legal or illegal and I don't want to step inside his head. These are not strong cards. Expecting the rest of the country to rally behind "because Trump" and that surge will save the day seems like a good way to lose the next election.
    • AvatarDark Matter in reply to Marchmaine on From the Hill to the Rose Garden & Back Again: A Drama in 4 Actsif Trump cannot deliver on a “better” Obama care, The Wall, and Infrastructure… I'm very good with him failing to enact massive boondoggles. pivoting to “but the democrats” is the definition of weakness. I listened to Obama's followers claim "it's the GOP" for years and he's still thought by his followers to be a political genius who was cursed with an intransitive opposition.
    • AvatarMarchmaine in reply to Mike Schilling on Songs!Another favorite... but I was going for more of a "deep tracks" take on it. 🙂 I also really like "Au fond du temple saint" from Bizet's Les Pêcheurs de perles and play that much too loudly. Now that I think about it, I only really play Opera at max volume.
    • AvatarNorth in reply to Aaron David on The Democrats’ TrumpThe #metoo crowd has Georgia and the new conservative majority on the supreme court focusing their minds on the stakes. Purity politics tend to be weaker when the Dems aren't succeeding their own president and the abortion question is gonna pound a couple more stakes into that corpse this cycle when it comes to the #metoo group.
    • AvatarNorth in reply to Aaron David on The Democrats’ TrumpHe's certainly not a shoo in yet. Personally I'd be much more comfortable if one of the younger candidates in the centrist lane end up winning the nomination. But prediction wise his lead is a better position to be in for winning the nod than not and the fact that the Democratic Party instinctively gravitates to a candidate like him and who is saying the things he's saying says things about the Democratic party (mostly good things Trumwill and I think but you and Stillwater understandably beg to differ).
    • AvatarSlade the Leveller on Songs!A moldy oldie that screams for 11. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCOSPtyZAPA
    • AvatarFish on Songs!Must be played at a volume which allows everyone living in your dorm to listen along with you: https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Ejga4kJUts
    • AvatarAaron David in reply to Jaybird on The Democrats’ Trump"Given that this is the most important election of our lifetimes..." Tomorrow never comes, it is always just today.
    • AvatarNorth in reply to Marchmaine on The Democrats’ TrumpNo, but any 2007 references need to take into account that Bill was so complacent about her odds that he got her to hire Mark fishing Penn as campaign manager and that shit for brains idiot thought that all the Democratic Primary's were winner take all and thus ignored the smaller states and caucuses in general.
    • AvatarStillwater in reply to Stillwater on The Democrats’ TrumpIf you're arguing that there is something about Hillary which only rust belt voters didn't like, I'm all ears. The current explanation is that those voters flipped from Obama to Trump because they were dissatisfied with Obama-era policies*. *Which is why the suggestion that a member of the Obama admin will win them back is so mystifying.