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    • AvatarPhilip H on What, exactly, is a $2000 check?First, you need to sort the particulars. There's a $300 weekly federally funded bump up in Unemployment Insurance, to be administered by the states. There's a $600 one time stimulus check. And Biden has proposed adding $1400 to this to get to $2000. While the debates you outline might serve certain pedantic interests, there's no lack of clarity here on what is under discussion.
    • AvatarChip Daniels in reply to Oscar Gordon on It’s Not Just About A Speech: Impeachment and President TrumpWell, it isn't JUST race. Its also misogyny and Christian cultural hegemony. But race connects them all. Fred Clark at Slacktivist has done a good job at revealing the way racism has steered the theology of white evangelicals, echoing Lee Atwater's confession about the code-speak behind the Southern Strategy. And the MRA types have themselves demonstrated how racial panic and sexual insecurity is intertwined with panic over changing male role models.
    • Henrietta Lowellfillyjonk on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My HatI am, on the advice of my doctor, making An Excursion! this weekend. I am masking up (probably breaking out the KN95s I bought for lab this semester) and going to the JoAnn Fabrics and the Kroger (and maybe, if I go early enough and it's not busy, the Ulta right next door to the JoAnn's. I had my regular checkup (I am on a six month schedule because of high blood pressure and allergies and some difficulty initially getting both under control) and it was a televisit, and she asked me - as she said she was asking all her patients - how I was doing emotionally and I kind of laughed and said "good days and bad days" and that I was feeling isolation hard, because I was only doing grocery shopping at the small local grocery and that only once every 10 days, and she was of the opinion that an early-in-the-day, well-masked and distanced trip was safe, and probably necessary for my mental health. Also there are some things the Kroger sells that my local grocery does not. I laid in a supply back in October when I last got out there, saying to myself, "Well, maybe by the time I run out of these things I'll be vaccinated" but I've learned since NOT to say that (sigh). So it's a stock up and then hunker down trip. But yeah, I am really feeling what they call "third quarter phenomenon" right now - tired of being alone, tired of only short conversations from 6 or 10 feet away and then with a mask on, tired of the inside of my house and of my office, tired of my hands being chapped from cons…
    • AvatarDoctor Jay on What, exactly, is a $2000 check?I can see this be a misunderstanding, and yet, it was a completely predictable one. I think Biden and Dems should go for a full $2000. If they have to dial it down some to get some Republican support, so be it. If not, we can afford it. Or we will once we roll back the idiot tax breaks. Interest rates are really, really low. That makes it a great time to borrow money.
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to Dark Matter on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorOr, any problems that arise will be solved very quickly, and perhaps decisively.
    • AvatarDavidTC in reply to Stillwater on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorExactly. If the Capitol insurrectionists did need there to be a lesson about a 'lack of response' before they would have done this(1), that they needed to know they would get away with 'We shall take over a legislative body and not allow the government to do what they are trying to do'...this was a lesson learned by, and I feel this is somewhat obvious, the previous time right-wing activists took over a government building and stopped the government from doing what they were trying to do, and there was no response and they all got away with it. 1) Not that they really did. They're white people. They know they can protest however they want
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to North on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorThe Capitol invaders were middle clase, middle aged prosperous white men. They’d have looked at the BLM looters and said “Those fishers got what’s coming to them and are nothing like us. They wanted free booze and TV’s, we want Patriotism.” So even strictly on it’s own merits I think your point is a weak one. The point of the this post is to focus the argument to it's core. Past that, I'm kinda playing Devil's advocate here a bit. I do think how authorities responded to ALL of the protests this summer & fall fed into the events of Jan. 6. I think the protesters were emboldened by the responses in the immediate past, and the lack of a show of force on the day. And the thing is, I don't know that the cities could have done any better even if leadership wanted to, partly because of points you made up above, but also because I think, for the most part, the police were too busy feeling all butthurt to give a shite about arresting people and prosecuting cases. As to my initial reply to you, it was something of a hypothetical. I highly doubt the police, even if they had been on the ball, would have made a lot of arrests because, as Veronica pointed out, experienced protesters understand OpSec quite a bit better. But if they had been able to, it would have sent a clear message. But I get that it's like trying to prosecute the people doing ransom ware. Lots of ifs and shoulda coulda woulda flying around, I know. Although, has anyone heard if the guys seen with zip ties or sledge hamme…
    • AvatarDavidTC in reply to Stillwater on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorExactly. If the Capitol insurrectionists did need to be a lesson about a 'lack of response' before they would have done this(1), that they needed to know they would get away with 'We shall take over a legislative body and not allow the government to do what they are trying to do'...this was a lesson learned by, and I feel this is somewhat obvious, the previous time right-wing activists took over a government building and stopped the government from doing what they were trying to do, and there was no response and they all got away with it. 1) Not that they really did. They're white people. They know they can protest however they want
    • AvatarNorth in reply to Dark Matter on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group Behavior+1
    • AvatarDark Matter in reply to Oscar Gordon on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorRE: ...absent a very obvious display of force. I expect thousands of national guard soldiers at Biden's swearing in. I expect there won't be any problems.
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to Stillwater on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group Behaviorwas that since the BLM rioters weren’t arrested and charged for the illegal violent acts As I mentioned to Philip upthread, I should not have limited F1 to simply the BLM protests, as there were other protests that fed into that whole "mixed bag" of responses. You and Philip are both very correct that those other protests are relevant to the perceptions at play. As much as the police should have gone after arsonists and vandals at BLM, they should have also gone hard after any other lawbreaking at other protests. As to your other points, the argument is only about the actions of the authorities. One thing to keep in mind regarding the BLM protests is when the Trump-cult appeared to counter protest, the police and federal authorities were very buddy-buddy with them. So not only is BLM/Antifa seen as getting gentle slaps, but Trump-cult is a welcome ally. I'd argue they had almost zero expectation of police resistance, absent a very obvious display of force.
    • AvatarNorth in reply to Oscar Gordon on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorWell sure, but if LE was on the ball in Minneapolis instead of being all rage-aholic that anyone would dare not respect their authoritah then we'd probably not have had the riots in the first place. That stipulated if we just posit that the police were slightly decayed instead of badly decayed and they and the DA's were trying to go after the violent vandals and looters, well, how exactly would they do that? Chasing after the capitol invaders is comparatively easy because pictures of them in the capitiol at the time of the invasion is pretty open and shut case for the charges that will be levied at them. The looting and vandalizing mostly occurred (in Minneapolis at least) under cover of darkness by masked young men. I was standing, sick with fury, on my own condo’s balcony watching as what looked like a bunch of white and asian college kids in masks sacked the liquor store across the street. Could I identify them in a police lineup? No, I certainly could not. And how would the cops even get the right candidates into a lineup? The population of suspects is too big, the identifying info seems too sparse, the cases are too numerous. I’ve been mulling over why the BLM comparisons with the Capitol invasion chafes me so much and I think, setting aside the ludicrous BSDI/moral equivalency element which is mostly absent in this specific line of argument, it’s that it’s self-defeating. If we did this near impossible thing when the BLM demonstrations happened then it might have discou…
    • AvatarDavidTC on Not An Escalation of Trumpism, An Acceleration of ConsequencesBTW, since we are going to get plenty of lies about this, I thought I'd preemptively reveal one that Rudy has already started: John Sullivan. Supposed a BLM activist, who Anderson Cooper got duped into interviewing. Just...read this: https://twitter.com/RebellionBaby/status/1331902008765206528 Note the date of last November. They followed up post-insurrection with this thread, where they compiled lists of not only John's absurd behavior, now documented across with information from a ton of BLM leaders but very suspicious activities like asking new activists to join 'militias', and his possible connections to law enforcement. Also the fact that, if you actually look at his feed, he's not only almost purely posted violence, and calls for violence, but he's also inexplicably liked a hell of a lot of far-right content. https://twitter.com/RebellionBaby/status/1349717938803142656 Now, people are wondering why I am mentioning this person, who has not shown up before here...I am doing it because the Second Big Lie (After 'There was something wrong with the election, which is the First Big Lie) is that the DC insurrection was lead by BLM, Ruby has already started promoting it, with John Sullivan as the poster-boy, and I'm sure some people aren't sure what to make this person. Well: This person is, at minimum, a fake BLM activist that is not trying to actually do anything for them, and merely trying to incite violence, and at worse he's literally working for law enforcement. And thoug…
    • AvatarStillwater in reply to Stillwater on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorAdding: seems to me the better counterfactual analysis to explain the insurrectionists behavior on Jan 6th would be the police response to two events conducted by folks on the right: the Bundy's occupation of the wildlife refuge and the armed militia taking over the Michigan state legislature. Both of those were *wildly* successful uses of private power to oppose government. Ie. "if not for those events and the correlated responses, there would have been no siege of the capitol."
    • AvatarPD Shaw in reply to Marchmaine on It’s Not Just About A Speech: Impeachment and President TrumpThe Constitution refers to conviction and judgment. I think Andrew Johnson and Belknap both had a two step process -- the Senate Rules required an order of acquittal to be entered in the absence of two-thirds to convict on any article and proceed to judgment otherwise. I think the Senate standing rules are similar today. As a practical matter this seems necessary because typically multiple articles of impeachment are presented. Senators may have different opinions on what to do next based upon the nature of any conviction(s). The Senate can promulgate any procedural rules it wants to try the case. I'm not sure significantly different rules are likely to exist in a 50-50 Senate with Roberts presiding instead of Pence/Harris.
    • AvatarStillwater in reply to Oscar Gordon on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorPerception is EVERYTHING here. The entirety of the argument rides on perception. Well, perception can't be "everything" otherwise the argument you made in the OP makes no sense, right? Delusional people have perceptions that are divorced from reality, yet they still act on their perceptions. Maybe you want to say that the Trumpist insurrectionists had *correct* perceptions about not facing any consequences for engaging in a violent attack on the Capitol building despite the fact that those "correct" perceptions may turn out to be incorrect? Let's flip it around. Seems to me that you're argument is that the thought process invoked by the folks that violently attacked the Capitol builidng (with intent to murder and kidnap elected CCers and Pence) was that since the BLM rioters weren't arrested and charged for the illegal violent acts they committed, they wouldn't be arrested and charged for illegally storming (and attempting to kill and kidnap various CCers) the Capitol building. Is that plausible, though? In what way would *ascribing* (and let's be clear here, that's what you're doing in the OP, you're ascribing a mental state and a thought process to the insurrectionists) that belief be plausible? They'd have to (falsely) believe that storming the capitol wouldn't result in criminal charges against them; they'd have to believe (falsely) that the riots flowing from the BLM protests didn't result in charges against those perpetrators; they'd have to believe (falsely) that the u…
    • AvatarKristin Devine on Ordinary Times’ Andrew Donaldson on Consumer Choice RadioHey, that's awesome! Can't wait to listen!
    • AvatarFish on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My HatI remember watching Rocky and Bullwinkle on the TV in my parent's bedroom, lying on their bed before having to rush off to catch the bus for school. This'd be in the first house I can remember us living in. Nothing in particular on my docket this weekend (wash/rinse/repeat).
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to North on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorLet's say LE was actually on the ball in Minneapolis, instead of being all rage-aholic that anyone would dare not respect their authoritah, and they aggressively hunted down and publicly prosecuted anyone who was starting fires, etc. like that person had just killed a cop. How many times do you think the police and DA have to do that before folks get the hint that the cops are not sitting back on this? That'll squelch all but the most sociopathic (which tend to be the kind of people who actually try to kill cops). Now I'm not saying the cops SHOULD have done that, because as the LAPD once showed us, that's not a good thing either. But the perception was that the police and DAs were pretty hands off after the fact. They might get violent during, but hell, if you were a white conservative, chances were pretty good you'd be fine.
    • AvatarNorth in reply to DensityDuck on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorHow were they stoppable? I mean, I suppose if the mass demonstrations themselves hadn't happened then the opportunistic douchebags wouldn't have turned out to take advantage of the suppressed police presence to loot and trash stuff. That seems like a non-starter to me. I'm uncertain how BLM itself could have prevented the violent element. The police themselves strongly prioritized harassing the peaceful demonstrators and ignoring or even encouraging the violent ones. That's policing 101 for undermining protests against police tactics. I mean, heck, I'm second to no one in my disdain of the parasites who commit to violence at demonstrations and in my contempt of leftists who try and justify said violence as anything but unproductive and lamentable but I don't see how an event as vast and spontaneous as the BLM protests could have prevented the destruction that ensued on its margins.
    • AvatarNorth in reply to Kolohe on Thawing The PumpWhere in Nova Scotia did your Grandmother's house lie? I'm a south shore raised fellow myself. Water pumps are yet another thing that people born in my odd time window have just a vague experience with. They were there, mostly old and rusting but still functioning and generally no longer used having been replaced by powered water line systems before our memories started really gelling. We used to have a blast playing with it. There's something... I don't know... just neat about driving that handle, feeling the suction take and then eventually having the water come pouring out. Neat, that is, when you were merely getting a drink and didn't need to fill a whole pail or a barrel. That would, of course, be work.
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to DensityDuck on Drinking Cheap Vodka Will Kill You: A Twitter Parable"Cheap Vodka" is, after all, racist code for "Filthy Cossacks!"
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to Kazzy on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorWould that encourage anyone to violently attack the Capitol? I dunno. It’d tell me that I might get my skull cracked by a baton, though might keep my record clear. That doesn’t sound very encouraging. Go back and read my footnote. Perception is EVERYTHING here. The entirety of the argument rides on perception.
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to gabriel conroy on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorContribute, or perhaps embolden.
    • AvatarPinky in reply to Jaybird on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My HatThe jokes are vaudeville.
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to Devin Carless on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorThere is no connection with regard to the prosecutors. Local DAs and federal prosecutors have completely different concerns and motivations. Any rioter who thought that the federal authorities would let slide a riot in the Capitol is an idiot. But I honestly think that is a given (that they were idiots). As for other direct evidence, no. If there was direct evidence, there wouldn't really need to be an argument.
    • AvatarJaybird in reply to Pinky on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My HatQuickly followed by a shushing librarian. The jokes are okay. Maybe a B+. The comedic timing is off the charts.
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to veronica d on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorProve that the maga chuds would have been perfect, peaceful little angels without the BLM protests. Sounds like being told to prove a negative, so... umm... no. Also, what are you trying to argue with your counterpoints?
    • AvatarPinky in reply to Jaybird on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My Hat"Omar -" "Goodness?"
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to Philip H on January 6th: A Layman’s Post About Group BehaviorAh, yes, that you for reminding me about all the white folks who protested and did not have the cops get all beaty on them. Those protests and the responses to them add to the mixed bag of responses in F1.
    • AvatarPinky in reply to Oscar Gordon on It’s Not Just About A Speech: Impeachment and President TrumpYou have to play Six Degrees of Separation to make this past election about race, but people do that. "They say they care about this, but they really don't. They say they care about that, and they always have, but they really care about it because it has something to do with this other thing, which has something to do with race, which is what they really care about." I mean, the biggest arguments are on social media, where you can't even tell what race anyone is. People may not know this, but even Christians tell jokes about the preacher who turns everything into a condemnation of homosexuality.
    • AvatarJaybird in reply to Pinky on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My HatThat arc kicks off with one of the jokes that sailed over my head when I was a kid and, as an adult, strikes me as laugh out loud funny. It takes place between 1:38 and 1:44: Holy cow, I'm realizing that the cartoon benefits from the very recent radio dominance. Rocky and Bullwinkle is a radio show with funny pictures.
    • AvatarMarchmaine on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My HatI remember *not* liking Rocky & Bullwinkle when it was 'age appropriate' and wondering whether the age at which it might be appropriate was wrong. For this weekend I'm trying to get our young contractor to multi-thread instead of single thread... the project is nearly complete, but he's being overly cautious about certain things being 100% complete before working on some other thing... which leads to total inaction without commensurate gain. What's this new Scrum technique all'y'all are talking about?
    • AvatarOscar Gordon on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My HatThe wife and I have been working our way through the British Baking Show, now that it is on Netflix.
    • AvatarPinky on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My HatI remember seeing it for the first time as an adult, with Bullwinkle carrying around a little boat made of jewels, called the Ruby Yacht of Omar Khayyam.
    • AvatarOscar Gordon in reply to Pinky on It’s Not Just About A Speech: Impeachment and President TrumpChip thinks a lot about race, so he assumes everyone thinks a lot about race. And everybody is motivated by racial issues. And everything has racism at it's core. Hammer, nail...
    • AvatarMarchmaine in reply to Kolohe on Thawing The PumpWe're so modern we had a second, warm water well dug last year 😉 Our one major vulnerability on the homestead is water... if the power goes out for an extended period (like 3-weeks) we're sunk and all the animals will be gone one way or another. I keep looking for Solar and/or hand pumps to augment the well, but I'm in that bad place where I can see the engineering specs, but can't build the engineering specs... and can't find someone who will. At night when no one is looking, I get paranoid about all or our assumptions regarding electricity and it's omnipresence.
    • AvatarJaybird in reply to gabriel conroy on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My HatThere was a throwaway joke where Bullwinkle was calling the government and complained about "adding new states all the time". "Wait, when did Alaska/Hawaii become states?", I asked. Both were made states in 1959. The episode in question aired in 1960. This joke was funny in 2021. I can only imagine how funny it would have been in 1960.
    • AvatarJaybird on Drinking Cheap Vodka Will Kill You: A Twitter ParableWhen I was young, I thought the Turing Test was about the sophistication of the machine. When I was older, I realized that the Turing Test was about the sophistication of the human. Now that I am in my dotage, I realized that my pocket was being picked by the guy who said "talk to this monitor and tell me whether or you think that someone else is typing at the other end."
    • Avatargabriel conroy on Weekend Plans Post: Hey Rocky, Watch Me Pull A Rabbit Out Of My HatI *LOVE* Rocky and Bullwinkle, and I agree with what you say here. I actually like the short things (Sherman and Peabody, Fractured Fairy Tales, etc.) better than the serial stories. I, too, watched it in syndication as a child and have, in my adult like, occasionally netflixed the dvd's. The humor is very adult (in a good way).