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This whole week has been wrenched. On Monday the Kaiser doc said the hideous cough was sinusitis and bronchitis, and prescribed an antibiotic, steroids, and an inhaler. So add in the fun that comes with having all your gut bugs killed off. Spent last night with lower back muscle spasms, reason unknown. So long as I moved veeery slooowly the spasms stayed calm. Turned getting into and out of bed, and even rolling over, into qigong forms. Same spasms returned this evening, but seem to have resolved already with some diligent (slow) stretching. Still coughing stuff up. If that doesn't clear up over the weekend, it'll be back to Kaiser on Monday.

The triage nurse at Kaiser same-day care this past Monday said that the crud getting passed around Front Range Colorado seems particularly nasty this year.

I am having a related but different bout of normal for my weird body myself and you have my sympathies. (I will be getting some complicated hormonal bloodwork done tomorrow morning and reading your comment has reminded me to eat dinner before I start fasting, so thank you!!!)

Oh, I don't think I'm in such a bubble. On balance more of my relatives voted for him than didn't, even here in my ultra blue little enclave of the world.

But you're talking about perception, whereas I'm talking about substantive improvements in their lives and his specific promises. I think the perception from his true supporters is mostly positive and his more reluctant voters, while finding him crass, would still take him over the alternative in heartbeat. My dad is one such person, and when I asked him why he voted Trump he simply said 'who else was there?'

But the truth is those tax cuts for the middle class are miniscule, temporary, and do nothing towards the fundamental precariousness in which the working and middle class live. A few more bucks is always nice but household savings hasn't changed a bit nor has preparedness for emergency expenses. He's still the tool of a GOP establishment that would gut Medicare and Medicaid if it had the votes (and he'd sign off on it) despite specifically promising not to do that. We're as involved in the ME as we were the day Obama left office, another broken promise. The regulatory environment is mostly at a stand still, and while that may make some people happy in a philosophical way I'm sure your brother knows that the vast majority of regulations that impact his life are state and local not federal. Also what happened to that healthcare plan that was to replace (and be better than) Obamacare? Oh yea, even his own party wouldn't touch it and it turned out they had nothing in the first place. The media is paying more attention to the treatment of detained illegal aliens but it's far from clear anything new is happening other than a massive influx overwhelming the system.
Otherwise it probably isn't that different from the last 2 administrations (you yourself have noted this).

By any honest assessment of his accomplishments based upon his promises and stated agenda in the campaign he's been a huge meh. But yes, he's good at triggering the easily triggered, the pearl clutching intersectionalists (read respectable racists and sexists) stuck in their own class bubble. Indeed the perception of the people who support Trump is quite positive based on that alone. In that regard he himself is a true post modern president. He gets nothing done, helps no one, and his core supporters love it because they themselves, like most Americans of all stripes, just aren't that smart or tuned into the world of public policy. He affirms their feelings no matter how irrational, is a star at drawing the boos and hisses of the enemy tribe, and Americans eat that shit up. They (We?) do it all at their own expense, while our government fails to adapt to a quickly coming globalized future.

So to be clear about where I stand, I'm not against Trump because I'm liberal and he hurts my feelings. Real liberals are made of sterner, more principled stuff than the mewing critical studies class. And I'm also not so far removed from the average Trump voter as to find their motivations inscrutable.

If you read my comments the last few days youll see I'm hardly certain the Democrats will win the next election. The way I'd fight Trump is very different than the way the leading voices in the Democratic party are. No one cares about Russia or Ukraine or his twitter feed. But I do think people care about the fact that the state has turned into a means of siphoning wealth upwards and prioritizing interests remote from those of the average citizen. In that respect Trump, for all his bluster and promises to shake things up is no different than the rest nor has he proven himself capable of doing anything new. He's a sham just like the people he said he was out to defeat. If establishment Dems and Republicans hadn't spent decades compromising principle there would be much better vehicles of opposing him.

But please, let's not pretend his supporters know jack that other people don't. They're being taken for a ride like the rest of us, and they hoot and holler and love it the whole way.

I know this article isn't about Mike Pence. I know it's a pain when someone in a comment section tries to make a whole case out of a single, minor point in an article.

Here I go.

I'm no fan of Trump, or of Pence. But if you're going to make the case that Trump needs to be removed from office because he's a singular blot on our political system, then you should consider Pence a singular improvement. It's hard for me to believe Democrats who fail to do so.

Again, I'm not saying that this article is all about Pence. I think you could even make the case that this article seems to, that Pence might not appear as an obvious change from Trump to the average voter. But that claim should be on everyone's lips, and if anything, the opposite is the case. I hear people saying that Pence would be worse because he hates gays, or that Pelosi needs to figure out a way to get rid of both of them and take the White House.

Back during the Clinton impeachment, I believed that he should have been removed from office. I disagreed with Gore on a lot of issues (and still do), but he was the Constitutional successor, and I believed that he should be in the presidency. More than that, on a practical level I thought that a removal of Clinton would have guaranteed Gore a victory in 2000. But that was a political price I would have paid for the Republic. The integrity of the office was paramount.

If Trump were removed from office, I don't see Pence winning in 2020. I wouldn't even see him getting the nomination. And I don't see the Senate actually removing Trump, anyway. But that's what's at stake here, and that's what the Democrats are saying should happen. If I don't hear the Democrats make the case that Pence is better than Trump, then how do I accept their primary argument as being in good faith?

I don't know Andrew, the article George quoted is pretty clear:

Several days ago, Trump’s campaign manager Brad Parscale posted statistics from last week’s rally held in Toledo, OH, which showed that 43% of attendees identified as either Democratic or Independent. I called that figure “stunning” in a recent post.

But the same statistic from Trump’s Tuesday night rally in Wisconsin can only be described as staggering. 57.8% of registrants identified as either Democratic or Independent.

Do you have better info on this?

I would simply say, Ask them. Don't look to your own feelings, biases, and wants, but start honestly looking toward the right side of the aisle. Too many here don't do that, indeed, too many of the left and never Trumpers. Because when I talk to my family members who are Trump supporters, they are very happy with him, for a variety of reasons.

My brother, an architect, raves about the tax cuts, and he is no millionaire. He likes all the regulations that have been slashed, the judges. And, one of the main reasons, he fights. Many here take that as "owning the libs" or some such childishness, but as opposed to the last few R's that have come up, this means a lot to them. This fighting back against the ever-encroaching blob that is the (to them) media/gov't industrial complex.

They love the fact that he is not of them and their machinery. And if you don't spend time with people who actually think and discuss and ponder ideas such as this, you won't get it. If you just spend time reading the news that is generally against him, or don't read what his supporters say, and read it honestly, not hate-read, you will never get to the point of understanding. And, if I am right, you will lose in '20.

Trump certainly has something to do with it. Not all of it, but some of it. Tariffs are part of it, but also the economic and policy climate that favors massive corporate farms over family farms.

But yes, I will admit to taking the NYT too credulously.

It is true that I am not wise in the ways of the DNC, but the "Hey, we've thrown a lot of (conflicting) national slogans at you" gambit might be as dispositive as you seem to think.

What *is* the pitch to Wisconsin going to be?

I mean, I've flat out said I think Democrats *can* make a pitch to Wisconsin... I don't think the problem is Trump's pony, I think the Democratic party is conflicted on what it's interests are.

"of course, there is never a single source for any market woes, "

lol

so when you said "Three years into his presidency, and we have data on this question. 10% of Wisconsin dairies have closed", you...didn't actually mean for that to imply anything about Trump?

I was able to get health insurance during my years as a contract lawyer for a relatively affordable price because of the ACA. So thanks Obama :)

The good thing about such a large cast of Dem candidates is that a lot, a whole lot, of messages have been given a test run.
UBI, M4A, Neo-New Dealism, Obama-ism 2.0 etc.

I don't think any of them have garnered a statistically significant number of disaffected Trump voters. Because Trump hasn't lost a statistically significant number of votes.

I don't see any evidence to suggest that anyone, anywhere, supports Trump because of economic concerns.

He is a one trick pony. But that pony is pretty strong.

That hits at why I think Trump is Finley wearing a Steinbrenner mask. Steinbrenner's stated goal was the same as his actual goal - winning and the prestige from winning. Trump wants that prestige regardless of winning; he wants loyalty regardless of competency (I think Steinbrenner would, on a sane day, call competency loyalty - he had a very complex version of competency, but that ruled all). He grasps the form of Steinbrenner without understanding how to make any of it work.

My grandfather worked in the aerospace industry during the Cold War, and he'd speak of Soviet replicas of Texas Instruments calculator that were completely accurate - right down to copying the logo like idiots. They didn't know what parts were essential; they were just good at copying. Trump lacks the internal value engine for a Steinbrenner attitude to work - he just copies some parts. This is probably part of why his fortunes have gone up and down all the time, while Steinbrenner stayed rich - none of what motivates him enables sustainability.

Great question. Good news, there's definitely a strategy that could exploit those concerns.

As I mentioned above, the biggest concern that separates Producer/Farmers is the consolidated Agriculture Industry.

"The Trump administration chose meatpacking giants over farmers in USDA proposal"

"Chicken Farmers Thought Trump Was Going to Help Them. Then His Administration Did the Opposite"

The tricky thing is that the Agriculture Industry is Neo-Lib NYT constituents (Money)... but the Farmer/Producers are MAGA FoxNews constituents (Votes). So, the answer isn't MOAR GLOBAL TRADE. It's going after the moneyed winners... the front row people... the new Democrats.

That's a message the Democratic party used to make, could theoretically make... but hasn't been making. And even when Obama was taking baby steps in that direction, it was fundamentally too little and too deferential to Consolidated Ag interests. So, yes, there are votes to get, but it will put at risk money... and likely will result in higher food costs, which runs contrary to a number of other liberal constituency interests.

TLDR: Tariff shaming plays well in all the wrong circles, because it isn't the fundamental problem as perceived by the producers/farmers.

Trump has gone to extremes to protect American workers. Democrats keep screaming about those things, while the workers keep listening to him, and looking at their bigger paychecks, and looking at their IRA's.

But even absent that, even if Trump was as hands-off as George HW Bush, determined to let nature takes it course and content to watch Japan eat into the American auto market because of long-overdue Darwinism, Trump would still have a huge advantage because he wouldn't be campaigning on throwing American's out of work because of "fairness" and "responsibility" and "climate change". Obama laughed at Trump's plan to bring back American manufacturing jobs, saying "What's he gonna do, wave a magic wand?" Well, to folks who don't understand technology and economics, everything looks like magic.

When moderates watch the Democratic debates, they're seeing candidate after candidate announce plans to wipe out or badly damage whole sectors of US jobs. "I will ban fracking!" "I will eliminate the health insurance industry!" "I will eliminate the internal combustion engine!" A whole lot of happily employed voters hear that and the back of their mind thinks "If these people win, I'm going to be standing in the unemployment line and applying for welfare and public housing."

On one level, Trump is running on hope, patriotism, optimism, and lots of humor, while Democrats are running on gloom and doom, hatred, and resentment. They rarely even smile, and seem to even hate each other. These intra-party attacks are of course a flip from 2016 when Republicans had to stab at each other while Hillary sailed to the nomination because she and Wassermann-Schultz had rigged the primaries. Yet she still lost.

Obama must be grinding his teeth just watching the unfolding disaster, as "Hope and Change" fades to a quirky period fad that's not in fashion anymore - except with Republicans who took it to another level entirely.