The Age of Context
My wife and I have been experimenting with the Fitbit Flex for the last few weeks. For those unfamiliar, the Fitbit Flex (pictured below) is a small wireless dongle that is inserted into a rubber wristband and worn throughout the day. It tracks the amount of steps you take, similar to a pedometer. It also tracks your sleep cycle throughout the night. This information is collected and charted via their website and compared to your health goals.
To issue an initial disclaimer, the technology is not perfect. I wore the Fitbit one afternoon while digging up some old bushes in our yard and it registered my arm movements as walking a couple of miles. The sleep tracker also relies on your movement during the night to determine your sleeping patterns. From their website:
- During sleep mode, when your body is completely at rest and unmoving, your Fitbit tracker records that you are asleep.
- A restless state of sleep indicates that your body transitioned from a very restful position with little movement to movement, such as turning over in bed. This doesn’t necessarily mean that you were fully awake or cognizant of your movements, but it may indicate that you were not getting the most restful sleep possible at that time.
- When your tracker indicates that you are moving so much that restful sleep would not be possible, your sleep graph will indicate that you were awake.
So far this gadget has mostly been an enjoyable toy but it has also provided some fascinating insights. For example, if the data is accurate I walk about 17 miles per week while at work (this is what happens when the building is 800,000 square feet and you have responsibilities on both ends of the facility). It also tells me that I sleep soundly most nights and every morning I can see exactly how many minutes I was awake during the night. It has become a personal challenge to see how low I can get that number.
What seems to be much more important than this specific technological tool is what it says about the future. Back in January I wrote about tech guru Robert Scoble and his prediction of the coming Age of Context. To recap, Scoble defines this by five characteristics:
1) wearable computing
2) big data and data computation
3) sensors
4) social media
5) location-based technology.
The Fitbit falls under category 3. There are other sensor devices on the market that measure all sorts of other health statistics as well as things like air-quality sensors and sensors you can put in your potted plants to analyze chemical levels in the soil.
Big data is the future of business. It is already here of course as companies are now able to mine through layers upon layers of information. I recently learned that for a very reasonable fee you can obtain data through credit reporting companies that allow you to determine the net worth and charitable giving habits of a potential donor to your cause. Google has been using keywords in emails and online searches to create targeted ads for several years. Companies are scrambling to make the best use of this information.
Social media needs little explanation here on the pages of an online magazine. Facebook, Twitter and other social media sites reveal much about out personal lives. We all know the stories now about potential employers checking our online profiles before hiring. Colleges are doing the same. As I noted in my previous post on this subject there is a lot of cultural change tied up in social media. Our kids’ idea of privacy is radically different than our own and this trend is not likely to change.
Location-based technology will provide us with a contextual experience like never before. The default settings on most smart phones these days are constantly transmitting location data. If we are users of established sites like Foursquare we are adding additional layers to the data pool. Paired with our mobile devices and new technology like Google Glass retailers will be able to offer us targeted discounts and suggest all sorts of experiences. In the coming years you will walk into a hotel in another city and they will know enough about you to suggest restaurants, point you to the gym, partner with tourist attractions to offer discounted tickets based on your likes and dislikes and so on. I have a pet theory that location-based technology will actually harm marriages as spouses will quickly be able to determine just what their partner is up to when they are apart. Or it may actually improve marital fidelity.
Moore’s Law is the observation that over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. Scoble has noted that there is a corollary to this with the Age of Context. The number of social media posts and location-based pings are doubling every 18 months. Currently there are over a billion Tweets sent out every 36 hours and Facebook posts are far greater.
We are on the verge of an explosion in technological change, happening at a much faster rate than anything we have seen previously. I am not exaggerating when I suggest that this is going to be a far more impactful era than what we saw with the internet boom over the last 20 years. The reason for this is that it will be much more integrated into our lives. Companies have had two decades to learn how to use the internet to their advantage. Now they will have hundreds of entry points into our lives that will give them access to us 24/7.
For me personally, I am scrambling to see what this might mean for my career. As an aspiring professional writer the Age of Context gives me the ability to craft a specific message for my tribe. The trick is to plug into that ability in the right ways. In my day job as a business professional, I want to see how this technology can help us do our job better. Sensors will allow us to increase efficiency in our operation. There will also be ethical questions about whether or not we can use that same technology to examine data about how our employees behave themselves. It is not a big leap to image we can link a sensor to a work station and determine just how much an employee is actually working while at their post.
For more on the Age of Context, below is a five-minute video where Scoble discusses the concept and gives some real world examples of how this is already happening.
Mike Dwyer is a freelance writer in Louisville, KY. He writes about culture, the outdoors and whatever else strikes his fancy. His personal site can be found at www.mikedwyerwrites.com. He is also active on Facebook and Twitter. Mike is one of several Kentucky authors featured in the book This I Believe: Kentucky.
Yeah, I’m really looking forward to iris scanners in public places used to generate individualized adverts…..Report
What could possibly go wrong?
[recalls Blade Runner.]Report
Or Demolition Man.Report
Those didn’t exist in Demo Man. You’re thinking of Minority Report.Report
My wife actually has a similar device for her Weight Watchers program. It got left in Vegas and she is very distraught. She, like me, loves measurables. I’ve compared it to the MPG calculator in my car. Conserving fuel becomes like a game with an actual score. Her device made activity a game and kept her score.Report
I am the same way. I love trying to get the MPGs up a digit or two closer to 40. The difference is probably just pennies, but it is a game. The feedback mechanisms nowadays tell you if you are charging the battery up or down, whether you are running on battery or gas or a combination. I still remember it showed 38.2 as I drove into the garage today.
My wife and I would both do the same with these wristbands (she already has a GPS enabled, heart rate band for running, but not yet daily everything). If they are waterproof I will put one on my gift list.Report
I’m just not seeing the power of all this. Maybe I’m just being an old fogey, but it seems like there are going to be diminishing marginal returns for advertising targeting, and while the gadgeteer may enjoy the extra information, the entrepreneur won’t get much advantage out of it.Report
Why not?
They can in theory target nearly perfectly. Target ads to those interested in your category, in shopping mode and approaching your store.
I still remember my son mentioning how ubiquitous ads were for GOpro surf cams. I told him I had never seen one. He bought one later that year.
They knew he was a target customer and would be in the market soon, and they were right. I just hope I don’t start seeing a surge in Viagra ads.Report
I may be the wrong person to talk about this because I buy practically nothing. I mean, if some advertiser gets a hold of my information, he’s going to try to sell me a pack of gum like the one I bought five years ago.
I’m guessing that the main benefit of this isn’t its ability to target the right ads, but to diminish the number of wrong ads. The average advertising victim has to filter out nearly 100% of the marketing aimed at him. With better accuracy, the potential consumer may start to lower his defenses as he realizes that more of the products he’s hearing about are things he’d want.Report
@pinky
“I’m guessing that the main benefit of this isn’t its ability to target the right ads, but to diminish the number of wrong ads.”
basically. you spend less money (in theory) trying to target people who would never be interested in your stuff/thing/service in the first place.Report
Pinky,
I think dhex is correct here. The goal is to spend your advertising dollars on the people that will actually buy the product. It’s also about instead of getting a generic ad for a large sporting goods store you get an ad for golf clubs because your digital history tells them you are a golfer.Report
I also think the primary problem thus far has been bad input. That is where data collection really matters. As they get better data, the targeting will become more effective. Consumers will appreciate it rather than think it’s creepy. “Holy shit, I almost forgot the sour cream! Thanks technology!”
I’ve got some million-dollar app ideas that are all built around highly targeted advertising, as well as other features. I just have no idea how to app.Report
@Roger,
Wait until the highways become “smart” with billboards scanning your lisc. plate and iris, doing an instant data dump and displaying an add targeted right to you, all the while, the road is monitoring your speed and reading your event data recorder, auto generating a speeding citation mailed to your house for each and every time you stray over the posted speed limit. Get to many citations and or not pay them and your car will be auto locked down remotely until you do pay.Report
Kazzy,
most of the advertising out there is for impulse purchases.
For those of us who don’t make impulse purchases… it’ll still be annoying.
“oh, you want to tell me about your new graphics card? I bought a computer a year ago, shove off already!”Report
I’m on the other side of the technology war, trying to find ways to keep all of the push advertising from reaching my devices (or at least, keeping it from being displayed), whether it’s targeted or not.Report
That touches on the idea I was raising. Massive, untailored advertising has made us filter out most of it as noise. It’s possible that over time, fewer, better-targeted ads will get our attention again, but it’ll take a long time I suspect to recondition the consumer to actually listen to the things.Report
@Michael: I’m with you and Pinky. If I could find a way to selectively hide most of my data, I would. I have no desire to have corporate American stalking me to sell me the latest gizmo based on a detailed demographic profile of every last little thing I buy. Nor do I wish for the government to do so. I’d prefer to remain largely inscrutable. I also think that there are some pretty major implications for personal privacy when your every little movement can be tracked. So, I won’t be buying a fit bit. I’ve thus far managed to avoid obtaining a smart phone.
I’d prefer not to be reduced to my credit score and consumption habits.Report
@michelle I think the point is that this ship has already sailed. You’re already reduced to your credit score and consumption habits (at least from the perspective of the people trying to market to you). It’s just that in the future, at least you’ll be reduced to an accurate bundle of credit score and consumption habits, rather than being blasted with messages that you don’t want from people who aren’t aiming to talk to you (e.g. billboards). Hopefully, anyway.Report
I’d much rather be subject to random ads than specifically targeted ones. It strikes me as less Big Brotherish. The ship may have already sailed, but it seems to have headed out to sea without taking much note of potentially dangerous head winds.Report
Fascinating stuff, for sure, but I don’t know if we should say that our kids have no notion of privacy. Danah Boyd has written some good stuff about how teenagers today are navigating the world of social media while presenting different faces to different audiences; check here for a good intro. Her blog is also worth reading.Report