We’re coming up on a month since I last checked in on where the Best Picture race for next March’s 98th Academy Awards stands. Since then, the big shake-up has been the Cannes Film Festival, which has come and gone, helping the international pieces of the board start to take their slots.
The top prize went to the Iranian thriller It Was Just An Accident, directed by Jafar Panahi, no stranger to political persecution in his home country. We’ve been on a bit of a streak lately with Cannes winners making it into the Best Picture lineup, two of them even taking home the statue in the past six years. But the Academy doesn’t have the strongest track record when it comes to embracing Middle Eastern films, so this could be the year that streak ends.
If anything, Neon’s other two contenders, Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent, seem better positioned to me as international titles with real Best Picture nomination potential. I’d also keep an eye on their dark horse, Sirat, another international entry that could sneak into the ten.
That said, Neon’s Cannes success hasn’t come without casualties. Life of Chuck has dropped from the top five on my board all the way down to #29, and Alpha fell off the board entirely after unexpected negative reviews. And while Neon’s slate is strong, I do wonder how they plan to juggle that many international contenders, especially as a single indie studio that’s never managed to get two films into the Best Picture lineup. Time, money, and campaign bandwidth are finite, even for bigger studios.
As for my current predicted ten, I’m still holding Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another in the default frontrunner spot. I spoke with a source who’s actually seen the film, and they told me it’s very much a movie that taps into the current political and cultural moment. That said, I still wonder if the film’s odds of finally being PTA’s Oscar breakthrough might be getting a little overhyped. Between its inflated budget and its satirical, comedic tone, I wouldn’t be surprised if it struggles at the box office; and historically, that’s not a combo the Academy always embraces.
Rounding out my ten, I’ve still got new films from Poor Things’ Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Nomadland’s Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), and Marriage Story’s Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly), plus the Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me From Nowhere. For now, I’m also sticking with Sinners, Wicked: For Good, and Avatar: Fire and Ash as the more populist blockbusters that sneak into the lineup.
Outside of my predicted ten, there are still plenty of sleeper hits that could shake up the race. Sources have flagged The Rivals of Amaziah King and the newly-added-to-my board Rental Family as potential top-tier contenders. MGM has the drama After the Hunt, which some are already slotting into their predicted ten. There’s also a new James L. Brooks film, Ella McCay; a musical adaptation of Kiss of the Spider Woman; Guillermo del Toro’s next project, Frankenstein; Richard Linklater’s look at the making of the French New Wave classic Breathless (Nouvelle Vague); Spike Lee’s remake of High and Low (Highest to Lowest); and more. Not to mention a wave of potential crowd-pleasers like F1: The Movie or the next Knives Out installment. You can check out the full slate of films on my radar as we wrap up Cannes coverage and head into a busy summer box office stretch.
Tier 1: The Predicted Ten
1. One Battle For Another
2. Sentimental Value
3. Bugonia
4. Hamnet
5. Jay Kelly
6. Deliver Me From Nowhere
7. The Secret Agent
8. Sinners
9. Wicked: For Good
10. Avatar: Fire And Ash
Tier 2: The “On The Bubble” Contenders
11. The Rivals Of Amziah King
12. It Was Just An Accident
13. After The Hunt
14. Marty Supreme
15. The Smashing Machine
16. Ella McCay
17. Kiss Of The Spider Woman
18. Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein
19. Nouvelle Vague
20. Highest 2 Lowest
Tier 3: The Dark Horses On The Verge Of Being Taken Serious
21. Ann Lee
22. Hedda
23. The Ballad Of A Small Player
24. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Political Thriller
25. F1 The Movie
26. Rental Family
27. Is This Thing On?
28. The Roses
29. The Life Of Chuck
30. Die My Love
Tier 4: The Long Shots With A Slim Path
31. Sound Of Falling
32. Sirat
33. No Other Choice
34. Resurrection
35. Train Dreams
36. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
37. Blue Moon
38. Eleanor The Great
39. Long Days Journey Into Night
40. Mother Mary
Tier 5: The Long Shots Looking For A Path
41. Sorry, Baby
42. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
43. Materialists
44. Eddington
45. The Phoenician Scheme
46. Black Bag
47. The Wedding Banquet
48. The Running Man
49. Tron: Ares
50. Superman
Off The Board Since The Last Update: Alpha; Caught Stealing; Mickey 17; Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning; The History Of Sound; The Lost Bus; The Wizard Of Kremlin
