The Third Tribe
Maybe this would be otherwise if I’d followed the discussions around here of Charles Murray’s Coming Apart thesis a little more closely, but I was struck by the math in David Brooks’ column* today:
Worse, there are vast behavioral gaps between the educated upper tribe (20 percent of the country) and the lower tribe (30 percent of the country).
20% + 30% = 50%. So what’s going on with the middle half of the nation in this analysis? Is it there, but just not in Brooks’ column? Or is Murray concerned only with the very top and bottom? Can we really talk honestly and effectively about growing divisions between the top and the bottom without taking the middle half into account, too? (And, more importantly, what should we name this third neighborhood?)
*Unrelated side note: Does anyone else notice that they do a lot more reading of Times articles in the last two days of the month than at any other point?
Thank goodness Brooks is doing his part by voluntarily going to the Applebees Salad Bar once a week to check in with the lower tribe.Report
“Can we really talk honestly and effectively about growing divisions between the top and the bottom without taking the middle half into account, too?”
I think we sort of can. To be perfectly honest, no one really cares about the middle class. As long as you are in there, it’s assumed you’re doing just fine. Their money comes from a magical grove of money trees planted by the WPA during the New Deal.
What people worry about is the bottom and the top because it is assumed that it’s a zero sum game between these two groups. If the rich get richer it was because they stole it directly from the poor.
(Man, I am really feeling cynical for a Tuesday)Report
Mike, you are a treasure. I disagree with you plenty often, but this comment both made me laugh and made me think.Report
It was only 50% tongue-in-cheek. People don’t really worry a whole lot about how the middle class is doing. They just look at the numbers of people moving south of that group on the income scale. And you hear even less about the people who move in the other direction.Report
Reminds me of Mr. Bergstrom’s parting words to Lisa Simpson — “That’s the problem with being middle-class. Anybody who really cares will abandon you for those who need it more.”Report
I’m with Jason. I agree with you basically never, but this comment was gold.Report
I find myself seeking out lots more Times articles to read via external links than I ever did before because of the paywall. Which just means their damn scheme is working like gangbusters, the bastards.Report
My understanding, based on what I’ve been reading on the various rightblogs I find tolerable, is that Murray is confining his “analysis” to white America, which is about 50% of the country, so dividing it into an upper 20% and a lower 30% could make sense.Report
That is still sloppy math. Whites exist at all percentiles.Report
And wouldn’t we expast a certain vastness to the difference between the top and the bottom? I mean, they are opposite ends of a spectrum. I can understand reason to be concerned about just how vast the gap is. But without knowing what is going on in the middle, and whether the gap is exponential or linear or what, we really can’t do much with this information at all. Nor should we be shocked by it.Report
He’s not only missing the middle 50%; he’s missing the entire non-white population as well. I’m not sure why Brooks didn’t notice this, since the book is Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010. Also, maybe Murray uses the same numbers elsewhere in the book, but he might be missing even more; Murray has a article in the WSJ:
So it might be even less than 50% of the white population.
However, I think the whole thing becomes another lecture about elites being out of touch with ordinary americans. The test linked around does assert itself as generalized (although defining mainstream around class is questionable in itself):
He proceeds to write a test based on a certain regional, largerly white culture, that to a large extent trancends class (as noted in the discussions on this site). And while those paragraphs above seem to want to go on about “The American mainstream” as a cross-racial thing, the book is supposedly about white Americans, as are all his statistics.
Murray’s solution (in the WSJ article linked) – elites should move into non-elite (white) culture – has the effects of (a) not making any sense, (b) ignoring people that aren’t white; and (c) shaming elites for not being enough like real Americans “the American mainstream”. How would elites moving to non-elite areas change anything? Why would the non-elites follow their lead? I doubt the non-elites are opposed to the values they’re supposed to learn, so is there something other than direct cultural factors causing the problems?Report
Nobody knows…
what it’s like to have your town be the “rape reservation”, in which all rape goes unpunished…
what it’s like to know about crimes, and equally know that you can’t report them.
the wasteland that used to be mountains, now turned to dust.
Where a hundred feet vertical means five more years of life expectancy
Where the DMZ is, and why the police don’t go there.
No, I don’t think Americans in general know about America very well. You win cookie (wif sprinkles) if you can name four of these places.Report
People still read the New York Times?Report
Only once a month. And to see the betting odds Nate Silver is giving on any given day.Report
Dang, am I the only dead-tree NYT subscriber out there?Report
Well, someone’s got to take one for the team.Report
This is a guess at what Murray is getting at. Or perhaps a projection of a subject that I would think interesting… but if I had to guess, he would be putting Belmont over here, Fishtown over there, and suggesting that the people of Belmont are alienating Middle America and therefore allowing Fishtown’s counterproductive behavior to creep up to the middle class. Reverse Prole Drift.Report
It’s our damn craft beers. I know it is. I’m wracked with guilt, for my part.Report
What strikes me about those numbers is that the variance within the upper 20% and the lower 30% alone makes those classifications suspect. I mean, we’re talking about several distinct groups lumped together, so that the difference between a person at the bottom of the top 20% and the top of the top 20% isn’t that much smaller than the difference between the person at the bottom of the top 20% and many of the people in the bottom 30%.
Anyway, while I’m not going to read Murray’s book (I’ve made that mistake before), I am kind of looking forward to seeing the reaction among statisticians and social scientists to the book.Report