Which one is it?
I’m afraid I’m intruding on Daniel Larison’s beat here, but the latest from National Review really highlights the disconnect between two competing critiques of Obama’s foreign policy. First, here’s Rudy Giuliani’s unhinged take on Obama’s approach to non-proliferation:
President Obama’s revamping of American nuclear policy is the mark of an “inept” leader intent on living a “left-wing dream,” says Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City, in an interview with National Review Online. “A nuclear-free world has been a 60-year dream of the Left, just like socialized health-care. This new policy, like Obama’s government-run health program, is a big step in that direction.”
“President Obama thinks we can all hold hands, sing songs, and have peace symbols,” Giuliani says. “North Korea and Iran are not singing along with the president. Knowing that, it just doesn’t make sense why we would reduce our nuclear arms when we face these threats.”
A few posts later, National Review published this assessment of the Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review from Henry Sokolski, an actual proliferation expert (emphasis mine):
Today’s headlines are screaming that the president has decided that the U.S. will no longer threaten to use nuclear weapons against Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) states that are compliant with their NPT obligations and that themselves lack nuclear weapons. This sounds dramatic but essentially means we would not consider threatening to use nuclear weapons against states we never had any intention of ever targeting, such as Brazil. On the other hand, we still could use them against Iran, North Korea, China, or Russia. And there is an additional hedge, as the New York Times reports:
“White House officials said the new strategy would include the option of reconsidering the use of nuclear retaliation against a biological attack, if the development of such weapons reached a level that made the United States vulnerable to a devastating strike.”
Bottom line: This new, “dramatic” nuclear-policy change hardly changes anything.
Anyone who witnessed his ill-fated primary campaign knows that Giuliani, despite being completely uninformed on foreign policy, has managed to parlay his mayoral tenure on 9/11 into some sort of weird national security street cred in Republican circles. And so he’s given to attacking Obama’s rhetoric on nuclear proliferation – “North Korea and Iran are not singing along with the president” – without actually considering the substance of the Administration’s policies. As Sokolski notes, the upcoming Nuclear Posture Review does very little to change the United States’ approach to proliferation. Aside from a few rhetorical gestures at a nuclear-free world, Obama has not, as Giuliani suggests, removed our foreign policy leverage with respect to Iran or North Korea or Russia. Indeed, someone interested in preserving the status quo might welcome a few cosmetic changes as a way to make the United States appear more accommodating without actually granting any substantive concessions to regional competitors. But Giuliani is so focused on a few ultimately meaningless rhetorical flourishes that the merits of the Nuclear Posture Review or the Administration’s tactical approach aren’t even discussed.
I think it is only fair that we consider the possibility that Rudy is not just interested in silly rhetorical flourishes, but that he may actually be a very stupid man.Report
Agreed Will. By my reading Obama’s moves on this issue amount (in substantive policy terms) to speaking softly but keeping our big stick. Not a bad position to take to my eyes.Report
I think that Giuliani represents part of Bush’s legacy.
In 2006, the Republican Party was in shambles. The Hawks and the Socons and the Fiscons all hated each other and the various nominees represented that.
You had Mike Huckabee as Bush III. Socially Conservative, Fiscally Compassionate, sure whatever on the Hawk issue. Fiscal Conservatives *HATED* him. He, of course, won in Iowa.
You had Mitt Romney as the Governor of Massachusetts who was back to being Socially Conservative after being Socially Moderate, Fiscally Conservative after being Fiscally Moderate, and Hawkishly Conservative after being Hawkishly Moderate. Everybody hated him for being lukewarm.
Giuliani was The Only Person Who Could Beat Hillary. Socially Liberal (see! We like gay marriage too! And abortion!), Fiscally Conservative! Tough on Crime! Hawkish as Hell! 9/11!!! America’s Mayor! The social conservatives would vote for Hillary before they’d vote for an adulterer who supports abortion.
(And, of course, Ron Paul. Fiscally Conservative. Socially Conservative. And Hawkishly Paleoconservative… which, of course, meant that we should read the newsletters, and do you really want to vote for a racist, and he’s a gold bug, and he’s a truther, and so on and so forth.)
Giuliani is a historical artifact from being a guy who happened to be in office at the time of a huge attack on US soil and who, in the weeks that followed, did not screw up spectacularly and who was presumably going to fight against Hillary Clinton (but that battle had to be called off for various and sundry reasons) and who benefited from the enormous vacuum left by Dubya’s cratered Compassionate Conservativism.
Hillary is no longer a threat and 9/11 is more likely to make people think about Iraq than Afghanistan, let alone New York. Giuliani has nothing interesting to say anymore.Report
@Jaybird, got the timing wrong, sorry, was suspected of being able to beat Hillary *BEFORE* 9/11 but wasn’t able to demonstrate that one way or t’other. It was 9/11 and Hillary’s certain nomination in 2008 as the Democratic Standard Bearer that brought that never-happened-but-what-woulda fight back into the public eye.Report
Giuliani is a historical artifact from being a guy who happened to be in office at the time of a huge attack on US soil and who, in the weeks that followed, did not screw up spectacularly
He’d gotten the spectacular screwing up (the placement of the emergency command center in a location that had already been a target once) out of the way early.Report
@Mike Schilling, and in addition (IIRC), he diverted some anti-terrorist funding for bettern inter-department communication equipment to other purposes. This meant that the police and fire dept couldn’t talk to each other easily, which slowed the evacuation of emergency people, which got a bunch of them killed. However, those bodies were mingled with the rest, so it was all good for Rudy.Report
I disagree. The difference between ambiguity and certainty in knowing what type of attack on the US would trigger a nuclear repose could be the very thing that leads a power to attack us.Report
In theory, Scott has a fair point: why eliminate the ambiguity if ambiguity might add to the deterrent effect of the arsenal? But that isn’t a real problem here. Scott refers to “a power,” but the only powers that are both capable of and interested in attacking the U.S., our forces or our allies with these or any other weapons are already excluded. Nuclear-weapons states are automatically excluded, and non-NPT states are likewise excluded. Signatories that are not in compliance are excluded. Look at the list of NPT signatories, almost all of which are in compliance with the treaty, and find me one state that could and would launch such an attack. Are we living in dread of impending Indonesian aggression? Do we need the threat of nuclear retaliation to deter the Canadians from launching a sneak attack on Detroit? I don’t think so.Report