“Do you think it’s an accident that when the neocons were in charge Hezbollah led the Lebanese elections but when we ditched the neocons, the Lebanese ditched Hezbollah? Do you think it’s an accident that when we ditched our far-right extremist government here in favor of a realist liberal that the liberals in Iran advanced their cause remarkably? Much further than anyone had a right to hope?” ~ a friend of mine, in a forum online somewhere
Erik Kain
Erik writes about video games at Forbes and politics at Mother Jones. He's the contributor of The League though he hasn't written much here lately. He can be found occasionally composing 140 character cultural analysis on Twitter.
Devcat is watching over, but if you notice any problems contact the editors and Devcat will be notified and deployed immediately.
on Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to IcelandHrm. I always felt like the experience was an epiphenomenon of the deeper quest for a dinner jacket… on Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to IcelandYou did good.
on Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to IcelandIt's more of an 'experience'. The old way was a sales-guy talking about the fabric/color/style and t…
on Paper: Inflation and the 2024 US Presidential ElectionEdward Bennett Williams, probably the greatest trial lawyer of the generation before mine, said that… on Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to IcelandWe have seen the lava. My buddy's eyes are better than mine, he claims to have seen the spouts from… on Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to IcelandThe last time I got a sport coat ("It's not a blazer, sir"), I was blessed to have a chubby tailor e… on Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024Withdrawing from the treaty wouldn't prohibit other countries from taking actions; the treaty is sel… on Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to IcelandYeah, it turns out that the dark green suit I was interested in was 'last year's' style and all they…
on Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024I am relatively hawkish on Ukraine since they proved their willingness to fight for their independen… on ICC Follows Through on Arrest Warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu & OthersOn the government, no... I'm more wondering about the citizens.
November 22, 2024
November 21, 2024
November 20, 2024
Movie of a Young Man Calling on a Lady Friend
November 19, 2024
on Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024 on Paper: Inflation and the 2024 US Presidential Election on ICC Follows Through on Arrest Warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu & Others
on ICC Follows Through on Arrest Warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu & Others on ICC Follows Through on Arrest Warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu & Others
on Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to Iceland on Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to Iceland
on Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to Iceland
on Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024 on ICC Follows Through on Arrest Warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu & Others
on All the President’s Nominees: The Legion of Groom
on Paper: Inflation and the 2024 US Presidential Election on Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024 on ICC Follows Through on Arrest Warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu & Others
on The Mandate That Wasn’t
And so, once again, Americans get to claim responsibility for progress in the Middle East.Report
Right – and Larison has grabbed this now and made some very good points. However, I would just add that when a country is directly involved with the affairs of another country – when, for instance, there is the feeling that American might very well invade said country for instance, or assist in the invasion of said country, the citizenry might (just might) vote for hawks who promise to do a better job keeping us out. We certainly use that national security line all the time in our voting. Doesn’t that play a role in who many Americans vote for – wasn’t that part of why Bush beat Kerry in 2004, because of the perceived threats elsewhere? Why wouldn’t other nations do likewise when they perceive a certain American administration to be more of a threat than another?Report
They might, sure.
Then again, Bush might have beaten Kerry because Kerry was so god-awful and a grown-up nominated by Democrats (Gephardt?) would have beaten Bush handily (or, say, a Dean).
It’s possible to come up with any number of theories for why this is happening now… foremost, of course, is the Neocon theory that it *CAN* happen now because Saddam is gone.
It seems safer to wait for them to tell us, in their own words, why they did it.Report
This “Do you think it’s an accident?” style is out-and-out conspiracy theory. Or, rather, it’s an egregious example of post hoc ergo propter hoc so-called reasoning.
The most intelligent thing said about this so far: It seems safer to wait for them to tell us, in their own words, why they did it.
ED Kain wants to claim some sort of credit for “ditching” the “neocons” and then that this has somehow generated changes that we can agree with in the Middle East.
Once they do “tell us, in their own words, why they did it,” ED Kain & Friend will be eating their own words. Or probably not. They’ll still find a way to take credit for doing nothing.Report
“It’s possible to come up with any number of theories….”
And thank you My Sweet Lord for that. Otherwise this comments section would be largely empty.Report
Frankly, I do think it’s a coincidence. Iran and Hezbollah were successful while Clinton was President; they did not need a Republican in the White House to use as a bogeyman. Whatever the virtues or drawbacks of a purportedly “realist liberal” U.S. Administration, it must be the case that leadership groups in Iran and Hezbollah have their own dynamics and their own politics.Report
I think the diverse pressures of modernity have more to do with it than any US political party in power. It’s affecting China, India, Iran, the whole world. The time they are a’changin’….
Medieval mindsets just can’t survive in this quickly changing world. Technological progress alone is enough to cause discombobulation.Report