Mother Jones and the War on Drugs

Roque Nuevo in reply to Mark Thompson says:

I’m glad you noticed the link between the drug war and immigration. That shows you read more or less carefully. I’m very grateful for your attention and time. On the other hand, you did ask me a question. That’s risky since I tend to give the long answer whenever I can:

would it be a fair statement to say that the US will never significantly curb illegal immigration until it ends the War on Drugs, or is this overstating things too much?

Yes, it would; no, it isn’t.

For a lot of people illegal immigration is just a way to survive. There’s no way they would take such risks if Mexico offered them opportunities for growth. The only “solution” for the illegal immigration problem is that Mexicans want to stay in Mexico to take advantage of the opportunities they already have. This means improving the Mexican economy. Everything else is just politics: wedge issues chosen specifically to divide and conquer the population and win elections. The economy cannot be improved under such conditions as the drug war generates.

To explain: First, you should consider that Mexico has been rising (or falling…) on failed-states indexes

there is a consensus for analytic and operational purposes that some countries’ policies, institutions, and governance can be defined as exceptionally weak when judged against the criterion of poverty reduction, especially with respect to the management of economic policy, delivery of social services, and efficacy of government. World Bank

The WB analyzes stability of states based on six criteria: voice and accountability; political stability; government effectiveness; regulatory quality; rule of law; control of corruption. As the pro-business party, one would expect the PAN to at least improve the rubrics of government effectiveness and regulatory quality but they have remained more or less where they were under the PRI. On all other indicators, Mexico has been falling since Democracy took hold here and the [Christian-Democratic] PAN got power over the state. They have presided over unprecedented chaos and destruction here.

Here are two WB charts to illustrate this: Mexico governance; US governance I put the US chart in there for comparison.

May I quote a Mexican analyst here? Thank you:

Si el conjunto de los temores de la población pudiera reunirse en un indicador macroeconómico, el gobierno de Felipe Calderón podría exhibir urbi et orbi su gran logro –el único en tres años– en foros internacionales, spots televisivos y anuncios espectaculares: la multiplicación del miedo.
En las zonas del país que han tenido la desgracia de ser seleccionadas por el régimen espurio para exhibir músculo y determinación, la gente vive aterrorizada por el poderío de los càrteles, pero también por un “estado de derecho” que se expresa en cateos, arrestos, torturas y hechos peores, perpetrados sin orden judicial alguna, las más de las veces, en retenes y “controles” en los que no es fácil distinguir si el enemigo a vencer es el narco o la población civil, en un aparato policial y militar que actúa libre de escrúpulos legales y humanitarios. Pedro Miguel, Navegaciones

[If the set of the nation’s fears could be gathered in one macroeconomic indicator, Calderón’s government could show urbi et orbi its great accomplishment—the only one in three years—in international conferences, in TV ads, and on billboards: the multiplication of fear.
In the areas of the nation that have had the bad luck to be chosen by the spurious government to show its muscle and determination, the people live in fear of the power of the carteles, but also of the “rule of law” expressed in searches, arrests, torture and worse, perpetrated under no legal warrant, mostly in military roadblocks and “controls” where it isn’t easy to tell if the enemy is the narco or the civilian population, in a military and political apparatus that acts free from legal and humanitarian scruples.]

With this way-too-long introduction, then, the answer to your question lies in the link between good governance and economic progress. One can’t expect much progress to happen under such a “set of fears” as is presided over by the PAN-Calderón government.

Without economic progress immigration will continue as it has been, only worse. To achieve economic progress, the government needs to reform vast swaths of the regulatory structure here. Under the conditions produced by the drug war—the “set of fears”—the government lacks the power that derives from legitimacy therefore it lacks the power to reform the economy. A good example is the new oil law passed last year. It was effectively gutted of all effectiveness by opposition politicians who fought their political battles on the street instead of in the congress and so intimidated the government into backing down. The government simply lacks the bandwidth to deploy the military throughout the Mexican mountains and border cities in the drug war and at the same time take care of opposition politicians with their street gangs. Without reform of the nation’s oil industry, the government will be impoverished and therefore unable to provide social-net services. You can see how this will lead to more chaos—and more illegal immigration.

But the point is that from the point of view of US national security, a failed state on our southern border, with an authoritarian leftist caudillo in charge and allied with Hugo Chávez/Russia/Iran is a nightmare. The drug war is leading us right there.

The only rational plan is for the US to call off the drug war. Just say no. Then apologize for the wanton destruction of their societies we have presided over. Then announce a reconstruction plan for Latin America, funded by the US, similar to the Marshal Plan—LA nations get the funds if they cooperate on how to use them. This would be a “Bolivarian Dream” that Hugo Chávez could stick up his a**. Then the US would gain true allies instead of allies extorted into cooperating. If Obama did this, he’d be a hero all over the continent. People would have his picture next to the Virgin in their home altars and be praying for his safety until he dies.Report