Screwing the blue pooch
Jack Gillis thinks the Blue Dogs’ days are numbered:
Blue Dog Democrats are essentially doomed. There’s no place left for them to hide. [Okay, okay, I promise to reduce the cliche to total-word ratio from now on.] Their careers are over, or all but over, even if a few of them hang on this November. Their force in national politics is about to collapse. And that will be the case regardless of the outcome of the vote on Health Care Reform upcoming in the next week or so and regardless of whether the Democrats keep control of Congress in the elections in November.
There are four phenomena at work destroying the Blue Dogs, and while they have for many years faced some combination of those, I don’t think they can survive all four at once. At the electoral level, they have to fight at either a tactical or strategic disadvantage, or both, and at the ideological level they have both an American problem and a philosophical problem.
I agree. Then again, where would the Blue Dogs go? Would they be red-blooded enough to avoid the RINO label if they joined the GOP? A few more pieces of big, liberal legislation (which the Blue Dogs oppose) and there won’t be any reason why voters who oppose that legislation would vote for a Democrat, any more than voters who supported the legislation would vote for a Blue Dog.
There isn’t anywhere for them to go. Frankly I think that was one of the lines Pelosi used on some of them during her whipping. Everyone knew that the monsoon was coming for the moderates; the question was what they would be remembered for doing.Report
To add on to North’s point, the monsoon is likely coming whether this passes or not. The question is whether they would rather be former congressmen in the good graces of their party or in the wilderness. If they lose now and the tide turns in favor of the Democrats in a few years, they can run again for some office and are more likely to get party support. If the tide does not turn in the next 2-4 years, they’ll just be right where they would be if they voted “no” on Obamacare. It’s a pretty compelling argument.Report
Erik:
Thanks for the plug!
North:
I agree with everything you say agreeing with me except the “everyone knows” part. I’m surprised how much of the punditocracy doesn’t know that.
Trumwill:
Heck, the tide could turn between now and November.Report
Possible, I suppose, but unlikely. Made unlikelier if this bill passes. Regardless of the merits of the bill, the benefits won’t start kicking in for some time and between now and then I suspect it’s going to be a tough road.
On the other hand, it may depend on what constitutes a turning tide. Some might consider Dems holding on to congress a turned tide. I think that’s likely in any event, though it will be small comfort to the Blue Dogs that lose.Report
Indeed Trum and Jfx, but lets not be over romantic. Barring a black swan event (the wars mostly) we all know what will dictate the upcoming election; the level and trajectory of unemployment. If unemployment is high and rising the left will be in deep trouble. If it’s lower and falling the Obama can point to it and what the hell will Republicans have left to say?Report