Gird Your Loins For The “Great Rebundling”

Andrew Donaldson

Born and raised in West Virginia, Andrew has been the Managing Editor of Ordinary Times since 2018, is a widely published opinion writer, and appears in media, radio, and occasionally as a talking head on TV. He can usually be found misspelling/misusing words on Twitter@four4thefire. Andrew is the host of Heard Tell podcast. Subscribe to Andrew'sHeard Tell Substack for free here:

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42 Responses

  1. Brandon Berg says:

    You absolutely can use streaming to watch whatever you want at a fraction of the cost of premium cable TV: Just rotate subscriptions! Realistically, you’re only going to watch so much in a given month; why not stick to Netflix in July, Disney in August, HBO in September, and so forth? Even if you subscribe to two or three services at a time, that’s still a good deal compared to $100+ for cable.

    Of course, if everyone does this, the system breaks down. The economics of these services depends on people staying subscribed year-round. Netflix works with people paying $120 per year, but not with people paying $20-30 per year.

    For the same reason, the unbundling people were asking for in the 2000s was always pure fantasy. Paying 10% of the cost for 10% of the channels was never viable, because turning off 90% of the channels doesn’t actually cut costs.

    Besides, the economics favor bundling. Because the marginal cost of giving viewers access to additional content is so low, the industry as a whole is better off with viewers paying $50/month for everything than paying $40/month for access to 10% of the content. The only reason they charge extra for premium channels (or multiple streaming services) is price discrimination: They want to get more money out of those who either really like TV or can afford to spend more. Part of this is that they want to make more money, of course, but they also just can’t produce all the content they produce with everyone paying only basic-cable rates.Report

    • North in reply to Brandon Berg says:

      You are correct but then you’re performing the ancient act of swapping out money for effort. Managing those subscriptions, subscribing, unsubscribing and rotating them, is a non trivial amount of work and if you lapse at it you end up paying for undesired months. If you do it correctly you save money but are putting in more work.

      Still the fundament principle is still sound. The grip has to get paid. People want the entertainment and other people can’t/won’t make it for free. The whole foofaraw about pricing and bundling is just the churn in between those two parties. Eventually a new stable paradigm will emerge but we can be 100% certain that it won’t be free because the grip has to be paid.

      But if we’re really lucky maybe there’ll be a few fewer coke encrusted Hollywood execs skimming off the top in between those parties.Report

  2. Damon says:

    I just want my Turner Classic Movie channel back in my standard cable package.Report

  3. fillyjonk says:

    “People simply don’t want to associate, even tangentially, with channels or products they don’t like.”

    this is so weird to me, and so frustrating. Bunch mentioned the Cracker Barrel thing where they *added* another product to the menu and a few people went ballistic, so you’d think Cracker Barrel had gone full PETA and was shaming people for asking for dairy butter or something.

    Honestly, this kind of – call it tribalism, maybe? – worries me. Because it means we see more stupid fights like that one, and maybe we get a few unhinged people who do things like threaten the lives of librarians because the libraries happen to have books that person, personally, does not approve of.

    And as I said: it’s weird to me. A lot of my life has been compromise; accepting something that wasn’t *exactly* what I wanted in order to go along with the group I was in, or understanding “okay neither of the two local groceries sell the brand you prefer of that item and you don’t have time to drive an hour’s round trip to the larger city where you can get it, just pick a brand they have” and I wonder if the people making the big stinks about fake meat patties, or some cable channel they dislike being in their package, have never had to compromise in their life before, and that seems to me that they must be absolutely miserable people to have to be around.

    I still have a cable package; it’s easy, it gets me a discount on my internet (from the same place). I don’t feel like dealing with streaming services. A couple years ago I *almost* signed up with Netflix and then read that DIsney (and I think, maybe, even then, Paramount?) was talking about pulling their IP off of Netflix, and I was like “eh, they’re gonna reinvent the cable package, just in streaming form, so we’ll pay what we paid before for cable but now we have to go through a more complicated interface to get the entertainment”

    That said? It does seem that cable channels that have a streaming service have relegated the re-runs, stale content, and less-appealing content to their cable channel, while teasing the “good stuff” you can get if you “only” pay $12-15 more a month for their streaming service as well.

    I don’t think there’s a solution to it: either we keep paying and griping, or we cut all those kinds of cords and go back to reading books or telling stories…Report

    • InMD in reply to fillyjonk says:

      Very good comment. Rather than tribalism I’d use the word ‘childish.’Report

    • Brandon Berg in reply to fillyjonk says:

      The push for cable unbundling isn’t really about that. It’s not (generally) that people are offended by having the Polka Channel in their cable package, but that they think they should be able to buy only the channels they actually watch at a steep discount. For reasons I explained in my earlier comment, this just doesn’t make economic sense and isn’t going to happen.Report

    • North in reply to fillyjonk says:

      McMegan also made the pertinent point that, speaking realistically, the number of people -actually- cavailing about the vegan options on Cracker Barrel menus is inconsequential and that Cracker Barrel was quite unusually sensible by offering a polite “we don’t care about your irritation” comment in response and otherwise ignoring them.Report

      • CJColucci in reply to North says:

        One of the local tabloid papers occasionally prints a letter from someone complaining that comic X sucks and shouldn’t be on the comics page. Oddly, they almost never print letters asking that the paper add comic Y. You’d think the latter has a more legitimate grievance.Report

      • Brandon Berg in reply to North says:

        It’s good that they can do that with the cluster-B right. Here’s hoping for the day that businesses work up the guts to respond in this manner to the cluster-B left.Report

        • North in reply to Brandon Berg says:

          Shouldn’t take long. Business already ignores the internet left entirely on matters economic. They simply think that giving the internet left what they want on non-economic matters yields better return than ignoring them. I can’t honestly say with any confidence whether, in business terms, they’re right or wrong.Report

  4. InMD says:

    I think this misses one of the big issues preventing cutting the cord- pro and college sports. Back before the proliferation of streaming services the thing that kept me from doing it is it would have meant losing access to the local MLB teams, which during the summer would feel unthinkable. We’ve now also got the power 5 college conferences establishing their own networks, which I believe have become available on hulu, but at premium package prices. The result is that you aren’t really saving anything (every time I do the math it’s basically a wash), especially if your local internet choices are also your cable tv providers.Report

    • PD Shaw in reply to InMD says:

      Yep, if I want to watch my MLB team live, I pretty much have to keep cable. I can subscribe to MLB and watch teams on the other side of the country or watch a replay of my team the next day. I still will miss a handful of games that MLB grants special distribution deals to Facebook, Peacock, Apple, etc.

      My main concern with this is that my dad’s health took a turn for the worse a few years ago, and his baseball team was his main interest. His satellite tv provider discontinued baseball coverage and he refused to get cable. It was only when we realized that MLB would play the games the next day, and my dad usually DVR’d them anyway because he couldn’t stay awake long enough in the evening. I don’t know if I can watch that way.Report

    • John Puccio in reply to InMD says:

      The Yankee & Entertainment Sports Network (YES) – one of the most expensive add ons in cable, always waring with the NY area providers – sold 21 regular season games to Amazon Prime this season. You throw in games on Apple Plus, ESPN, Fox Sports – it’s anyone’s guess where the Yankees will be broadcast on a given night.

      Mind you this was the network that was built on being the only way to see every game when it was launched 20 years ago.

      As a casual viewer who really only “checks in” on regular season game, it’s an incredibly frustrating 1st world problem to constantly have to exit Fios, launch Prime and then click on the game, then exit Prime, launch Fios, rinse repeat. And I’m not ashamed to admit that instead of going through those steps, I just check the score on my phone instead of switching services.

      Yes, I’m that lazy. It’s a lot to ask of a chronic flipper.Report

  5. Kazzy says:

    I’m rarely right about tech predictions (I thought cell phones were a fad and smart phones were dumb).

    But when cord cutting started I anticipated ever more streaming services with divided offerings and increased fees. My friends insisted it was the future and acted like they’d be forever laughing to the bank.

    I mean, did we think these billion dollar companies were gonna be had?Report

  6. Jaybird says:

    Defining oneself by one’s consumption choices is a thing.

    The weird thing is that the people who define themselves by their consumption choices see that as superior than merely consuming. There’s the meta-joke that I’m sure you’ve seen in the t-shirt: “I appreciate the muppets on a much deeper level than you”.

    To compare to sports, it’s not enough to enjoy baseball. You have to have a team. Indeed, it’s not merely enough to have a team, you have to have a team that you hate. You know the joke “I just hope that both teams have fun”? Yep, that’s in the ballpark.

    You may have even seen discussions of the circumstances under which you are allowed to change favorite teams.

    You can’t just like the Yankees one year and then like the Twins the next. There is a very small list of reasons that give leave to change teams and “meh, I felt like it” is not on there. Like, there’s a debate over whether *MOVING CITIES* is on there.

    There are a bunch of little rules over who constitutes a “real” fan from, say, “casual” ones.

    So, too, for other consumption choices. Are you a real fan of the Marvel Cinematic Universe? How’s about Cracker Barrel? How’s about… well, no. That would start a food fight. (But that’s on there too.)Report

    • Greg In Ak in reply to Jaybird says:

      True. Also its what companies have been pushing hard for. They want us to define themselves by our brand of floor cleaner/desert topping/underwear color. It’s the primary basis of advertising. If there is anything that capitalism has woven into the fabric of the West ( and most of the rest of the world) it’s this kind of thing: defining ourselves by consumption.

      Mad Men was about a lot of things but conspicuous consumption and how advertising leads us there is a big part of it.Report

    • Chris in reply to Jaybird says:

      We live in a world in which almost everyone defines themselves, in one way or another, by their consumption choices, and while I think the “People simply don’t want to associate, even tangentially, with channels or products they don’t like” explanation for people not going back to cable is ridiculous, it is undeniable that people increasingly view their consumption choices through a political lens.

      I remember years ago on this site, I told a former OT author (who has long since self-banned) that I thought it was really depressing that he saw everything through a liberal-conservative political lens. Turns out, he was just ahead of his time.Report

  7. Pinky says:

    “Which is really the point that has been at the core of marketing and business for as long as there has been marketing and business: how do you get people to pay for something whether they like it or not?”

    This reminds me of the economics of amusement parks. They can make the most money if they charge on the way in and charge per ride. More rides (even if unpopular) can bring in extra people. Popular rides can bring in people and get them to pay extra.

    One problem with the current model is that each subscription streaming site may only have two cool roller coasters and a bunch of identical bumper cars. There are sites like Tubi and even YouTube that can get you free tv and movies, so the strongest selling points are the tentpole projects. Peacock’s ads are only about The Office, Disney hocks Marvel and Star Wars, and Hulu has nearly given up.Report

  8. Bryan O'Nolan says:

    Another issue with the streaming trend is the change in the ownership structure of much of the content. The big companies love the fact that they can control what options you have–remember how Disney used to release their classic movies on VHS and then make them out of print a month or so later?–and to control how you can watch, listen or read.

    The days when the norm was to buy and therefore own a copy of X and–as long as you weren’t profiting off it–you could consume X to your heart’s content, however you pleased without having to worry that if the distributor when belly up you might lose all access to the thing you paid for.

    I’d love to see the pendulum swing back in the direction of physical media being the norm.Report

  9. Michael Cain says:

    Most of the streaming services have made the same category mistake that most cable companies made during the merger-and-acquisition frenzy of the 1990s: no matter how much they might wish, they are in the content aggregation and distribution business. Which means the tedious grungy work of signing up individual customers, managing billing and collections, handling delivery infrastructure, and negotiating contracts with the content producers. Not hanging with the glamorous people at the top of the production business.

    There are only a few ways to make more money in that business, and they all boil down to aggregate more content in order to attract more customers at a fixed price for the package. In short, become a cable company sans the distribution plant. And eventually, that means signing up content like HGTV to pick up another million subscribers.Report

  10. Saul Degraw says:

    The other things companies can do is let you pay to “rent” a particular series but not subscribe. What if I want to watch For All Mankind or Slow Horses but do not want to subscribe to Apple TV or Moonknight but do not want to subscribe to Disney plus. Why not let people rent the season for X or purchase it for Y? Amazon lets you do this.Report

  11. Greg In Ak says:

    Our big cable company decided to get rid of cable boxes so they went with an all on line service. Supposed to be like Youtube or Hulu. Only problem is it worked terribly. So we ended up cutting the cord since our local cable company broke cable tv, a tech which has worked for decades. Shows wouldn’t record and live shows would freeze for minutes. Not great. Sigh.Report

  12. Marchmaine says:

    If I put my Tech Sales hat on… what these platforms are stumbling towards is a consumption model.

    The thing about consumption models is that they are difficult for the platforms at first, but lead to hockey-stick growth if successful. If successful. So, there’s a lot more risk than they’d like even if the upside is much bigger.

    The issue for consumers is that it looks great at first, but, if the company is successful your spend will increase dramatically over time. In theory you are ‘happy’ about this because you are only spending the funds on things you consume and clearly you are happy with the things you are consuming. In theory. At which point you go back to your platform and say, dude, love your stuff, but what if I commit to spend $XX, can you give me a much better price on my consumption? To which your platform says Sure! And in theory everyone is happy. In theory.

    Right now we’re in the weird middle ground where each platfom wants a fee to cover their risk – which works fine when there are one or two, but less well when there are 7, 8, infinity. When the market share grab is over, the pivot to consumption will commence and it will crush the ‘also rans’ because the model will shift the risk back to them.Report

    • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

      I’ve been at a couple of companies now that have gone through this in a circular fashion, where unbundling leads to à la carte/transactional, which eventually jacks up the price, which causes CFOs and auditors to lose their minds, which eventually then returns to some form of bundling or tiers of service. This is all b2b though where the leverage is different, not consumer facing, where the ability to monopolize and completely pillage seems to me to be much greater.Report

      • Marachmaine in reply to InMD says:

        Greater pillaging for B2B or B2C?

        Yeah, I’ve had customers tell me they ‘love’ the hockeystick because as technical team they can get the right solutions they need to solve the business challenges, and then they are selling success to the CFO – vs. the old model where they had to put success at risk because all the costs were upfront and CFO was forcing solution decisions that made the projects fail, or take longer.

        Two sides of same coin, I suppose. Fail quickly for less / pay more for success later.

        Medium term I’d expect to see some consolidation into shared platform Sub Models (for the second/third tier players)… but once the first big-boy goes consumption with Tiers… game over.

        Musing… I could see Substack pioneer some of this… like pay $10 or $20/month with, say 20 or 50 articles included where the per hit rate is shared with author.Report

        • InMD in reply to Marachmaine says:

          It’s funny you mention substack, I was also thinking about them. I’m subscribed to 4 and there are others I like, or at least would like to be able to read occasional subscriber only articles, but the all or nothing à la carte makes it not worth it for any writer where I’m not going to read close to 100% of their output.Report