Every election is supposed to the most important of our lifetimes. I have heard that every four years since 1980. But this may be one of the rare times where I think that claim is … well, not exactly accurate … but not completely insane either. I’ve never hidden my disdain for Trump. But in recent months, he’s been getting worse and inspiring worse behavior in his followers. And rather than finally stand up to him, the GOP has become even more of a doormat, refusing to even do the minimal lip service of condemning racist remarks. Good conservatives like Justin Amash are fleeing the party, leaving Trump with a party defined almost entirely by him. For that reason, I legitimately worry that re-election will inspire Trump to indulge his worst instincts. It would be a vindication of every stupid, inconsiderate, bigoted, illegal or unconstitutional thing he’s done for the last four years. It may not “destroy our democracy”. But it has the real possibility of permanently damaging the norms and institutions that have kept the incredibly dangerous power of government in relative check for the last couple of centuries.
It’s hard for me, a self-described “libertarian/conservative”, to endorse a Democrat. But that the place where Trump has brought us to. However, I’m comforted by several things. First, it is likely the Republicans will hold on to the Senate, which will blunt the agenda of any Democratic President. Whatever gets done will have to be done by peeling off enough “traitorous” Republicans to form a majority. Second, of the three domains where the President has much more certain authority — law enforcement, foreign policy and judicial appointments — I trust the Democrats far more than I trust Trump. I like having conservatives on the Supreme Court; but I think we need that liberal minority to keep things honest.
Given all of the above, I think that the most important quality of any Democratic nominee is the ability to beat Trump. So even if I agreed with the more progressive candidates on their polices — and I don’t — I still couldn’t find myself endorsing them. The simple fact is that many of the policies being flogged by the progressive wing will turn voters screaming back to the Republican tent. Decriminalizing illegal immigration? Abolishing private insurance? Enjoy the next four years of Trump then. I said in a previous post that there is a real danger that the Democrats, thinking 2020 an easy win, will nominate a far-Left lunkhead and go down in a 1972-style disaster. Nothing since I wrote those words has dissuaded me from this opinion. So the question I find myself asking is which of these candidates can actually beat Donald Trump running on a more center-left agenda. And since I don’t quite hate myself enough to write up Biden, I’ll endorse Mayor Pete.
Most political junkies are familiar with Buttigieg’s record, but just to go over it: Harvard, Oxford, Rhodes scholar. Joined the Navy Reserve and spent seven months in Afghanistan. Mayor of South Bend since 2011. A religious man, but one who is somewhat “Religious Left”, often casting his left-of-center views in religious terms and harshly criticizing the Religious Right for embracing policies like immigrant detention or opposing the minimum wage. It’s kind of odd to see the mayor of a mid-size Midwestern city become a Presidential candidate, but Mayor Pete has impressed a lot of people with his intelligence and speaking ability and has been raising funds in amounts similar to the big candidates. He’s one of only five candidates — Biden, Harris, Sanders and Warren being the others — who are polling better than my former gallbladder.
So why do I like him? His military service is a big part. He opposed the Iraq War while still supporting military service in general. He then enlisted and served a seven-month tour in Afghanistan. We have not had a President with military service since Bush the First and none have had any experience post-dating World War II. Past military service does not guarantee a wise foreign policy — John McCain supported almost every war we could get into. But I think it brings a critical first-hand perspective on what we’re sending soldiers into that it is often lacking in a city that sees them as pieces on a board.
Buttigieg is more moderate than the other candidates, favoring a carbon-tax-and-dividend approach to climate change; correctly identifying automation, rather than trade, as the cause of manufacturing job losses; favoring a public option instead of abolishing private insurance, etc. Most of these policies will never happen if the GOP retains the Senate. But they are far less likely to send Americans stampeding back to Trump than Warrenism. And the parts he can do on his own — withdrawing for overseas adventures, criminal justice reform — sound fine to me.
I also like that Mayor Pete sees things in terms of systems. A lot of his most passionate issues are about ways of fixing the system of government so that we get better results (e.g., voting access). He isn’t proposing, a la Harris, to issue a series of executive orders. Nor is he is interested in trampling the power of the states, favoring incentives rather than coercion. Again, many of his proposals are unlikely to happen; some would require Constitutional Amendments. But an approach that focus on process and systems would be a critical step back from the imperial presidencies we’ve been enduring lately.
Another thing that struck me about Mayor Pete was this:
Question: "The police force in South Bend is now 6% black in a city that is 26% black. Why has that not improved over your two terms as mayor?"
Mayor Pete Buttigieg: "Because I couldn't get it done." https://t.co/xwTwsvYdbu pic.twitter.com/sfoyLIKpOL
— The Hill (@thehill) June 28, 2019
“I couldn’t get it done”. It’s rare to see a politician say something that basically honest. They blame the other party. They pretend they did it anyway. They yell at the media. They invoke war dead and apple pie. They never just say, “I failed.” Harry Truman used to say, “the buck stops here”. Our last election gave us a choice between a candidate who said “the buck never got here” and a candidate who said, “I have the buck. It’s the best buck. I have so many bucks. You would not believe how good these bucks are.” A President who will simply say, “my bad”? I’ll take two, please.
But when I think about it, the thing I like most about Mayor Pete is that … he’s kinda boring. Oh, I don’t mean he’s a bad speaker or anything; he’s quite good. I mean that he doesn’t cast himself as a revolutionary. He’s not dramatic. He doesn’t deal in crazy rhetoric. He crosses me as … a manager. Someone who will run things competently, change what he can, stay focused on the moment and not get caught up in the outrage de jour. I think a Buttigieg presidency would be incredibly boring. And frankly, I could use a bit of boring right now.
Vote for Mayor Pete. And maybe, if we’re very lucky, we can occasionally forget that he’s President.
A boring President Buttigieg would be an incredible win for progressive politics, in the same way that President Obama’s boring tenure was, because it would show that you can have a Member Of An Oppressed Minority Group as President and America and the world continue to function pretty much the same as before.Report
Yeah I’m fond of Pete, he’s my #2 preferred pick. Good write up.Report
Ditto… Pete is one of the Dems I could see myself voting for against Trump.
And while I’m at it, this entire series has been GREAT!Report
I always have trouble with the “mid-sized city” part, at least when it’s supposed to imply South Bend is large enough that the experience is meaningful. South Bend would be only the thirteenth largest city in Colorado. There are seven Denver suburb cities that are bigger. If Mayor Pete were to come to Colorado and say he knew how to deal with our cities’ problems, the response would be, “Ha! South Bend’s population is essentially unchanged for 30 years. You have no idea about our problems.”
As I have said multiple times in comments in this series of posts, the Dems have a problem. There’s an eastern wing of the party where “city problems” largely means decayed urban cores, stagnant population, disappearing jobs. There’s a western wing where “city problems” means almost-unmanageable growth.Report
The Buttigieg rise is a bit silly. Being mayor of New York City, or Chicago, or LA has rarely been considered a sufficient qualification for President.
Only three former mayors have ever become President.
Andrew Johnson was a mayor, then a representative, then a governor, then a senator, then a Vice President.
Calvin Coolidge (who my dad campaigned for) was a mayor, then a state senator, then lieutenant governor, then governor, then Vice President.
Grover Cleveland was mayor of Buffalo, then governor, the President.
Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg both made failed bids after being mayor of New York, as did John Lindsay in 1972. No New York mayor has ever been elected to anything higher than mayor (such as senator or governor) since 1869.
That a mayor from South Bend would throw his hat in the ring mainly indicates a massive disconnect from reality.Report
Yes, we certainly wouldn’t want to elect someone unqualified for the position.Report
Indeed. A mayor from a small or medium sized town can’t viably run on their record as mayor, they have to have some huge accomplishments other than being mayor, perhaps the same ones that got them elected mayor.
If Clint Eastwood ran for President, he wouldn’t just rely on his record as successful mayor of Carmel. Sono Bono was mayor of Palm Springs, which he used to run for the US House, not the Presidency. Bill Gates or Steve Jobs could have easily become a mayor, but that wouldn’t be what would make them think they could pull off a Presidential bid.
Donald Trump is like many successful businessmen who ran, such as Steve Forbes or Ross Perot, or Carly Fiorina, or Andrew Steyer, or Andrew Yang, etc.
Zachary Taylor, Grant, and Eisenhower never held public office before becoming President, coming in from the military side, in which leaders are promoted, not elected. Herbert Hoover (who my dad also campaigned for), had been our food delivery man in Europe, then served as commerce secretary, where he handled tons of work modernizing the country.Report
Taylor, Grant, and Eisenhower were all promoted, in major part, due to demonstrated battlefield success which is a strong indicator of an ability to reason, plan, lead, and follow through. Otherwise, most military promotions happen because “you’ve been in long enough to have earned a promotion” or “you scored high enough on this test” or “you convinced a promotions board that you deserved a higher rank.” Military rank, in and of itself, is absofishinglutely not an indicator of leadership quality.Report
Eh, if you see this as a marketing campaign, it makes a bit more sense.
If Mayor Pete decides to run for the House in 2020, he’s pretty much already won. If he decides to run for Senate in 2022, he’s got a good shot, depending on the winds.
How much free advertising is he getting? Globs.
I suppose a good question might be “what’s going on that he’s getting so much traction?” but we know the answer to that already… he’s media-friendly and gives good soundbite and the “Gay Guy Everybody Can Agree On vs. Pence” storyline is too sweet for journalismists to pass up.Report
“Gay Guy Everybody Can Agree On vs. Pence” would certainly be an interesting rerun of 2008…Report
The two of them should do a series of Lincoln-Douglas debates across the country. And they would be required to share an RV while they did it. I would watch that show.Report
This only works if Buttigieg gets a rider in his contract stipulating that a third person must always be present in the RV because he refuses to be in one-on-one situations with straight guys.Report
both of these comments just made my dayReport
Reality TV stars and shady real estate guys have also not historically been presidents but strange things happen. 😉Report
There have been unqualified presidents, and racist presidents, and asshole presidents, but the trifecta was unprecedented.Report
I have a pet theory that Harris actually doesn’t like a certain kind of black person. Kind of hoping she gets the nomination so I can take it for a test drive.
I also think she is definitely an asshole. Mayor Pete? He’s a guy I’d like to have in my disc golf league so we could be doubles partners.Report
There’s an eastern wing of the party where “city problems” largely means decayed urban cores, stagnant population, disappearing jobs. There’s a western wing where “city problems” means almost-unmanageable growth.
Dang.
This is a great comment.Report
I’m more or less pretty sure that, unless Biden is the pick, Mayor Pete will be the VP.
So if *ANYBODY* but Biden gets the nod, the ticket will be Not-Biden/Buttigeig.
(I think Biden is going to be the pick, though. Which means that he *CAN’T* pick Mayor Pete. “Fight White Supremacy! Vote Biden/Buttigeig!” just doesn’t work. It’d be Biden/Harris in that case. *BUT*! If it’s not Biden, Buttigeig is on the ticket in the 2nd seat.)Report
I think that’s probably right. My feeling is that Mayor Peter is angling more for a future run in 2024 or 2028. His meteoric rise — well, somewhat — reminds me a bit of Obama. So a VP seat, Senate seat, maybe governorship. We’ll see.
And I agree that Biden is likely to pick Harris if he wins the nomination. He won’t pick Warren because they’ll lose the Senate seat (and she’s more valuable to him in the Senate anyway). He will try very hard to pick a woman. Klobuchar might be a better fit as she would bring Midwest votes (and Minnesota has a Dem governor). But I think tapping Harris will solidify his flank.Report
I think Harris is effectively done, if not toxic, after her last performance. I’ve seen a lot of blacks expressing absolute contempt for her. Even the CNN pundits couldn’t find a good word to say about her performance. I would be surprised if she gets reelected to the Senate, but then California always defies rational predictions.Report
I feel sympathy for Mayor Pete because I don’t think he has much of a political future in a deep-red state like Indiana. His chances of winning a state-wide election in Indiana are slim to none. He probably wouldn’t even come close to what Beto accomplished in Texas.
Paradoxically, he can raise his political profile by running for the Democratic nomination for President and losing but losing a state-wide election in Indiana would be a career killer. My view is that he is smart enough to realize he probably will not get the nomination but knows he might land the VP pick or a cabinet position if Democrats win the WH in 2020.Report
We have watched all the debates and myself, my wife and her 75 year-old parents all commented how he just sounds like a normal person. I love his Religious Left position. I love that he is pitching himself as the person you most want to see on a debate stage with Trump.
Agreed he is an easy VP pick. America may not be ready for a gay president, but I think it can handle a gay VP.
I would for sure vote for him if given the opportunity. I have already decided to switch to Democrat so I can vote in the primaries next spring. Hope he is still around, but usually things are all settled by the time KY weighs in.Report
He’s my #2 pick as well and I’m very happy as a Democratic party member that he exists and is doing pretty well in the party. If, by some miracle, he won I wonder who his veep pick should be?Report
Gabbard. Plenty of intersectional boxes to check and can you imagine Trump trying to lecture the two of them on foreign policy?Report
Bold choice; an awful lot of baggage on Gabbards part. HI isn’t much lift either.Report
You’re right and I was being a bit sarcastic. I’d probably pick Booker. They’re bro memes would put Obama/Biden to shame.
Harris seems like the smartest pick on paper but I really wonder if her ego would allow for #2.
I’m also starting to think about cabinet picks if the nominee chooses from the field. Inslee at Energy would be a great pick. I think Harris would be a great Secretary of State. Gabbard as UN ambassador (technically not a cabinet position).Report
Harris is more likely to be AG than get State I’d think.
Buttigieg is in a interesting spot that he’s clearly running for a cabinet job if he doesn’t get a Veep nod, but there isn’t a natural fit for him. Unless its bringing that McKinsey energy to Commerce. He might be considered a fit for the VA, but he wants a job that launches a future career not ends it.Report
I thought about AG but it almost seems like an insult to her to go from AG to senator to AG (even if a much bigger job). Plus, AG is so politicized and after seeing what Trump did to Sessions I would not want that job for a million bucks.Report
Harris/Buttigieg was my initial pick. I’ve kinda backed off of Buttigieg as the #2, but I’m having a hard time deciding who would be a better pairing for Harris. Like it was noted above, I think Warren is too valuable to lose from the Senate just to fill the VP slot. Pete’s probably the guy if Harris gets the nod.Report
If NY picked someone with her clout to take her spot, would they get her committee spots? Hillary? Bill? Lady Gaga?Report
You’re talking about Warren, right? She’s from Mass, not NY. But no, I don’t think her replacement would automatically get those committee spots. They’re in part awarded by seniority and some other mysterious metrics, right?Report
Ah, crap. My bad. I was thinking NY for some reason. Seems like a safe seat but I get that her voice is important.Report
In Mass, the Governor picks the replacement and its being held by a very popular Republican, so Warren resigning means they lose that safe seat until an election happens. So she probably doesn’t get picked for anything if she doesn’t win the nomination.Report
Gotcha…makes sense.Report
But that assumes that there’s a second Republican in Massachusetts for the governor to appoint, and that this Republican has a crazy ambition to be a US Senator.
Strangely enough, there is exactly such a person, and I’m sure he’s given some thought to retiring from the New England Patriots.
If I was a Massachusetts Democrat, I would think that trying to unseat a Senator Brady would be a pretty daunting prospect, so I’ll bet Warren will stay right where she is.Report
Eli Manning could do it.Report
That would be the only way Massachusetts would ever pass a voter ID law, to keep scads of New Yorkers from tipping the election.Report
Well, what would actually happen is the overwhelmingly Democratic legislature would just change the law to make it so the seat has to be filled by a special election, as opposed to a gubernatorial replacement.Report
Mayor Pete for HUD Secretary.Report
This is the first time someone younger than me is running for President.Report
sameReport
Get off of my lawn!Report
God(ess?) damn it, so he is for me too! Damn you to hell Saul!Report
He’s older than me but only by 6 months.Report
That can’t be right. IIRC you were born in either ’86 or ’84, but Pete was born in ’82 according to google and wikipedia. But if you and JamesK are right, then I am younger than the two of you. But I always thought I was older than at least JamesK.
Is there anybody here who was born after April ’85?Report
This was a solid endorsement Michael, above all else I agree with your criteria. Government should be boring, and a politician with the courage to be publicly self-critical is almost unheard of.Report
Also, electing him would make Erick Erickson’s head explode.Report
A very fine reason to elect him.Report