The Ethics of the Coronavirus
At a Beach Club, Memorial Day Weekend
CoronaDave: I love this. Lockdown over. Everybody hanging out in bars with everyone else. This is wonderful.
CoronaMike: I was frankly getting worried there. So many people just staying at home. How are we supposed to proliferate if everybody’s staying at home?
CoronaTom: I love this country.
CoronaDave: No kidding, right? We could have been born in South Korea of something.
CoronaMike: {shudder}
CoronaSteve: They must suffer for their sins. Let’s go.
CoronaMike: I’ll take that guy over there. Steve, you come with me and take that chick he’s hitting on. Dave, let’s see if we can get access to the bartender. After we’ve all gone around and had a bajillion babies, we will regroup on the barmaid. Sound good?
CoronaDave: Let’s rock.
All: CHARGE!
Minneapolis, Minnesota, Three Days Later
CoronaMike: Oh man, this is great. Targets everywhere.
CoronaDave: Time to get off this planet.
CoronaSteve: I don’t know, guys, it seems wrong. They’re out here protesting a grave injustice.
CoronaDave: Huh?
CoronaSteve: It seems like we would be taking advantage of injustice if we used this opportunity to spread among the crowds.
CoronaMike: Who cares?
CoronaSteve: It’s really important that the state respect its citizens – all of them – certainly we can agree on that?
CoronaTom: Why do you have to make everything political Steve?
CoronaSteve: Black Lives Matter, Dave.
CoronaMike: Steve, I don’t know a polite way to say this, but WE KILL PEOPLE. I mean, IT’S WHAT WE DO.
CoronaSteve: Not all people.
CoronaMike: Look. We have laid a billion babies on our current host. He’s going to start feeling symptoms soon. He might quarantine, it’s now or never.
CoronaSteve: Surely there is somebody who voted for Trump that we can infect while they’re on their way home.
CoronaTom: Unnecessary risk and who cares?
CoronaSteve: Look, all of these people are wearing masks. They’re even socially distancing some. Trying to make the jump seems like the risky move.
CoronaMike: I don’t think we’re going to get a better opportunity than now. We just aren’t. It’s their fault for being out here.
CoronaSteve: Shouldn’t we respect the fact that they wear masks? Don’t we want to reward good behavior?
CoronaDave: Wearing masks is not good behavior, Steve. We don’t want people wearing masks. It’s risky, but the more we get through the more some blowhard on Fox News will be able to convince people that masks don’t work and the easier it will be for our children and grandchildren.
CoronaTom: Yeah, when you think about it, it’s the patriotic thing to do. For the future of Coronakind.
CoronaMike: What the hell are you guys even talking about? We’re virii. Literally all we care about is going from place to place and having billions of babies. Trump? Fox News? Black Lives Matter? Nothing matters but BABIES and BABIES and MORE BABIES.
CoronaSteve: I’m really disappointed in you, Mike. You sound like one of those people on Fox News talking about demographic displacement.
CoronaTom: Woah, Steve, that’s really out of bounds.
CoronaSteve: Sorry, but it’s true.
CoronaDave: Enough, guys. It’s time to make our move.
CoronaTom: I’ll be honest, while I want to be a coronapatriot and all, I don’t like the odds with all these masks.
CoronaDave: Screw you guys. I’m going for it. LEEEEEEEROY JENKINSSSSSSS!!!!
{CoronaDave doesn’t make it, falls to the ground.}
CoronaTom: RIP Dave
CoronaMike: Hey look, there’s somebody without a mask stumbling around not keeping their distance. Let’s go hop on that train.
CoronaTom: You coming Steve? I mean I’m sure they’re all on the side of the angels and everything, but they’re not wearing a mask.
CoronaSteve: {Sigh} Let’s go.
A Church, The Following Sunday
CoronaTom: Have I mentioned that I love this country?
CoronaSteve: This is almost too easy.
CoronaTom: Yeah. They just looked at the protests and decided if people can do that then fair is fair, they get to go to church.
CoronaJack: When you put it that way, it sounds kind of unfair.
CoronaMike: What does fairness have to do with anything? Babies! Hosts!
CoronaJack: I get that. But seriously, though. These people heard absolutely nothing about the virus for several days while people protested. After many of them missed funerals and dying loved ones. It feels like taking advantage of their frustration.
CoronaSteve: Oh good lord. Nobody is making them do anything. They could be wearing masks but they aren’t. They could be distancing but they aren’t. They think they’re invincible. This is an invitation.
CoronaJack: I’m just saying we should look at the big picture.
CoronaMike: What big picture?
CoronaJack: It’s not fair that they should stay home and then the second they go out here we are.
CoronaSteve: No, no, no. These are the same people who have been protesting the lockdown from the beginning. The protests are pretext. It has nothing to do with that. They are just doing exactly what they want and trying to put the blame on someone else.
CoronaMike: Who cares. BABIES!
CoronaTom: Yeah, I think you guys are seriously overthinking all of this.
CoronaJack: I’m just saying that we should be conscientious of double standards and choose our targets accordingly.
CoronaSteve: Poppycock. These people chose to be here and unlike the protesters they do not have a righteous cause. They’re here to deprive women of the right to choose and gays of the right to marry. These are even worse than the haircut people.
CoronaJack: What does that have to do with anything?
CoronaMike: Nothing! None of this has to do anything with anything. BABIES!
CoronaTom: Dude’s got a point.
CoronaTom: Besides, inside/outside. Most of the protests were outside. To whatever extent we held our fire it was because of that. These guys are all-in on the inside.
CoronaJack: Yeah but they’re starting to do more inside, too. Memorial services and rallies. I don’t think that distinction is going to hold much longer.
CoronaSteve: Are you seriously going to compare a memorial service for the victim of racism to this?
CoronaJack: They’re the same thing, epidemiologically speaking.
CoronaSteve: Wait, Jack. I’m confiused. Do you only care about epidemiology now all the sudden or do you still care about double-standards?
CoronaJack: I would say both are relevant.
CoronaSteve: We can debate this all day, but there’s a communion cup headed our way.
CoronaMike: Can’t argue with communion cups!
CoronaJack: Sigh. I guess you can’t.
CoronaTom: I love this country.
All: ATTACK!
Feature Image Derived from NIAID image.
The virus is patient.
People are talking about a second wave and many are making the point that we’re still in the first wave.
What was the original projection made a million years ago? Two million people dead because of this thing?
We’re at 5% of that.Report
There have been some Magic 8-Ball missteps, but the two million figure assumed minimal action on our part. It was foolish to promote that number because *of course* people would take action (whether the government required it or not). But it is not a good benchmark of success.Report
Not to mention, models are based on assumptions (transmission rates, mortality rates, rate of asymptomatic transmission). Just because a model said two million dead does not mean we would actually have had two million with no action. There is really no way to confirm that number, because you cannot do a control experiment. I imagine if you made a model using what we know now, starting at time 0 (way back when), if would look different than those earlier models, and probably closer to what really would have happened without taking action.Report
We crushed the curve in the economy while we only flattened the curve with our behaviors.
We’re going to get to herd immunity, like it or not. With or without a vaccine.Report
Herd immunity may well be where this ends up. in which case, likely more than that two million will die. Back of the envelope calculation (80% to get herd immunity, death rate of .5%) is roughly 12 million.
That – and especially the fear surrounding that and alsotoo a lot of illness along the way some lifelong – will be really bad for the economy.
Which if that’s what has to happen, that’s what has to happen. I think maybe it does (I’ve been pretty loud on my views about schools and lockdowns through 2021 were always impossible). But it’s really quite unclear that herd immunity is “for the economy”, as some would have it.
Maybe also not something we should resign ourselves to on the fourth month.Report
We may be fortunate in that some folks seem to have some inherent immunity or resistance to it.
My sons spent several days with their mother while she was infected. Four of these were during her pre-symptomatic period and two after the onset of symptoms. I’ve seen some research that suggests people are not at all or only very mildly contagious absent symptoms, which may change the interpretation of this situation. All the same, they were in as close contact with her as possible: sharing a smallish home, her preparing their meals, giving them baths, tucking them into bed and snuggling them good night, etc.
Two months later, they test negative for antibodies. Now, it is possible the tests are wrong. But I also tested negative and the three of us spent the next 16 days together. Which would mean that if their tests were wrong, my test was probably wrong, too. I’ve seen reports that the antibody test may only be 50% accurate. So we’re looking at a 12.5% chance of all of us being negative. Not impossible but pretty low.
Why didn’t they (seem to) get it? Beats me. Luck? Fluke? Some genetic predisposition to not get it? I have a quasi-informed theory that kids are more resistant to it because the “common colds” they basically live with 6 months out of the year are from the family of Corona-viruses so maybe that helps them fight it off better?
So there is a lot we still have to figure out with this whole thing. If kids just don’t or very rarely get it… well, then we’d never get to 80% infection rate. So the death toll would be lower. And if kids do get it and get it much more mildly than adults, than the fatality rate is going to be lower.
Lots and lots and lots of ifs in there, undoubtedly.
I hope that our response gets smarter… more scalpel then machete. Learn what works and doesn’t work to slow the spread. Learn who needs more protection and who doesn’t. I read that a hairdresser (in GA, I believe?) saw 140 clients while infected, but because they wore a mask, none of them became infected themselves. Holy shit… that is a big fucking deal. Let’s get everyone wearing masks when they’re indoors!
We know that nursing homes can be disaster zones if the virus gets in. Let’s *NOT* do what NY/NJ did and maybe do what other states did to offer extra protection to those populations.
There are options between “full lock down” and “totally open”. Let’s explore those and use them wisely, focusing on what, when, where, and who.Report
“Scalpel not a machete” is exactly the thing.
Every now and again they seem to get it. But only reluctantly and out of convenience, and it shows.Report
Megan McArdle wrote a while back that even if we (or most of us) (or a goodly number of us) will get covid eventually, it’s better to get covid 6 months from now than to get it right now, because then we’ll have understood the virus and illness at least a little better.Report
As I understand it, the virus does not spread so easily outdoors. The virus does spread easily in closed confined spaces. This is why the big outbreaks seem to be in places like cruises ships, offices, restaurants, choir practices, old age homes, bars/clubs. There might be some stuff about circulating air that helps spread the virus as well.
The United States sort of took a half-assed approach to social distancing/lockdown. Part of this is because we have extreme disagreements over social spending/welfare compared to other countries combined with one party dedicated to nothing but own the libs.Report
Closed spaces with recirculated air, like every large office building in the US. I think that in retrospect that’s going to look like a very bad decision.Report
CoronaDave: What about that guy? No mask, elderly, overweight, in poor health. He’s like our dream host.
CoronaBill: Are you kidding? He’s the best friend we’ve got.Report
Game respects game?Report
CoronaSteve’s not even alive, and he’s still woke as fish.
That’s not a euphemism. It’s just a well-known fact that fish are pretty fucking woke. Some don’t even have eyelids.Report