September Jobs Report: It’s the Virus, Stupid
Former President Bill Clinton attends the 59th Presidential Inauguration ceremony in Washington, Jan. 20, 2021. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris took the oath of office on the West Front of the U.S. Capitol. (DOD Photo by Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Carlos M. Vazquez II)
Another month, another disappointment, this time the September Jobs Report.
A Swing and a Miss
Industry forecasts on employment are, right now, inflated with irrational exuberance. September’s job report saw 194,000 jobs added. Forecasts expected about half a million. It was a miss many saw coming, much like Lucy, Charlie Brown, and the Football. Pundits and armchair economists (and actual economists) who stated that the temporary unemployment benefits were preventing folks from returning to the labor force were wrong. They now find themselves confronting actual facts that disagree with their beliefs. I will not hold my breath that many change their mind. It was never the benefits keeping folks from coming back. It was, and will be, the virus, until we put enough shots in arms. And until we do, we know who is going to be most hurt in the labor market.
Women are Left Behind
Research suggests that four times as many women left the labor force in 2020. This difference is likely due to the fact that women are much more likely to stay at home and care for the children. There are lots of reasons for this, and I am not going to spend time getting into that here. Yes, the latest jobs report shows that male unemployment is 4.7% versus female unemployment at 4.2%, but remember, if you LEAVE the labor force, you’re not counted in those rates.
Economist Betsy Stevenson shows that in previous recessions, women reached back to full recovery faster than men, except for the Covid-19 driven recession, where they are lagging. I’m certain this difference looks worse if you split out gender by income. Simply put, lower to moderate income women (those that don’t have office jobs, or have telework options, or are schoolteachers) cannot return to work because of childcare, or they do return to work but then their child (or the school) closes for two weeks for quarantine and many jobs simply won’t have leave options for that situation (especially if it happens more than once in a year).
The male employment level is down from 83.9 million in February 2020 to 81.5 million in September 2021, a decline of about 2.8%. The female employment level is down from 74.9 million to 72.2 million, or 3.6%, all numbers seasonally adjusted. While women may have been much more likely to leave the labor force, there’s actually not a large male–female difference in the change in total labor force.
Also, keep in mind that benefits expired on the 6th, and the establishment survey reflects the pay period containing September 12th, so it may be a bit too early to see the full effect.Report
That .8% difference is actually quite sizeable when we think of it in terms of effect size. Female employment is recovering 30% slower than male employment. (3.6-2.8)/2.8Report
If I wanted to look up the whole forecasts where the outcomes exceeded expectations versus missed expectations and do it by quarter, how would I look that up?
(I’m wondering if there are any patterns, you see.)Report
I’m not aware of one that combines all the estimates together like that, would be a nice resource.Report
Is the GOP discouraging vaccinations to tank the economy going into the midterms?
No, they’re riding the tiger on this one, as witness how Trump and Lindsey Graham get booed for even suggesting that vaccination is an option. But it would be like them.Report
I found this interesting, the really annoying bit is that business leaders KNOW that their AI systems are making them viable miss job candidates, but they seem unable or unwilling to fix it.Report
And when employers do go out of their way to search out candidates that don’t match the usual criteria, the result is dismissed as “affirmative action hires”.Report