Defending Basketball Mysticism
I know I should be talking about Four Loko or Thomas Friedman’s latest column on the horrors of deliberative democracy, but the start of a really compelling NBA season demands some sports blogging.
Despite a pathological hatred for pretty much everything related to numbers, I find advanced basketball statistics pretty interesting. Part of this can be explained by wanting to learn how things tick – a sports team is pretty complex, and it’s endlessly fascinating to break down the component parts to find what works (Michael Lewis’s widely-cited profile of Shane Battier – a vital player whose contributions don’t show up in a traditional basketball box score – is a pretty good example of how this process can be so engrossing). Another point in favor of statistical analysis is the shallowness of most sports commentary – you can only go so long hearing sports writers credit “intangibles” or “mental toughness” for a team’s success without wanting to pull your hair out.
[Brief aside: Some sports-literate political pundit should really explore the parallels between commentary over an extended NBA season and political punditry. Basketball beat writers and campaign reporters are basically in the same boat – they have to craft a compelling narrative about day-to-day happenings (games or political events) that bear little to no relation to underlying factors that determine a candidate or a team’s success. A close Lakers loss to the Memphis Grizzlies doesn’t alter the balance of power in the Western Conference any more than a minor gaffe spells the end of a political career. But losing to a mediocre team inevitably provokes a spate of commentary about bellwethers and turning points, much like the occasional political gaffe is blown wildly out of proportion despite looking absolutely trivial in hindsight.]
But here’s the rub: the most celebrated collection of basketball talent on the planet is making a mockery out of our most sophisticated projections. After signing three of the best players in the NBA to long-term contracts, the Miami Heat were widely expected to win 60-plus games and contend for an NBA title. Fast forward a month or so into the season and Miami is hovering around .500 while rumors of an impending coaching change routinely circulate on ESPN. It’s the basketball equivalent of a soap opera, and I’m enjoying every minute of it.
Why are the Heat losing? They’ve had a few injuries, but Bosh, Wade, and LeBron James remain healthy. All three players are in the prime of their careers, so any age-related drop-off is far enough into the future that we can discount that as a factor.
So what gives? Ask a stat-head and he’ll tell you that the Heat’s star players are under-performing. Of course, anyone with access to a few box scores or cable television can tell you that much – we’re still left wondering why LeBron, Wade, and Bosh are suddenly losing to the Indiana Pacers (a decent ball club to be sure, but we’re not talking about the ’97 Bulls here).
The Miami Heat are the revenge of every mediocre sports broadcaster who told you intangibles and chemistry matter just as much as talent. Their on-court performance vindicates every traditionalist, every basketball troglodyte who tut-tutted Pat Riley for throwing together a mish-mash of All Stars instead of building a team.
Of course, it’s wildly premature to declare Miami dead and advanced basketball statistics obsolete. The Heat are a work in progress. In a season or two, I predict that they will be formidable. They may even have enough talent to overcome a slow start and win a title this year . And it’s worth remembering that no one – not even the doubters – could have predicted that Miami would start 10-8.
But despite my interest in stats, I’m also a little happy that the numbers can’t explain why the Heat continue to struggle. In no small part, the joy of watching sports comes from arguing over questions that will never be definitively resolved. Magic or Bird? Brady or Manning? These topics have been debated for years and show no signs of losing steam, and frankly, I like it that way. I like ascribing mystical powers like “toughness” or “character” to the athletes I root for. I like imagining that something beyond the box score – or the Excel spreadsheet – explains greatness. Statistics are a great corrective to the idiocy of your typical sports broadcaster, but I’m in no hurry to totally demystify our national pastimes. Without the great, interminable arguments about Player X or Team Y, sports fandom loses much of its appeal. And if a less talented team never beat the favorite, there wouldn’t be much point to watching at all.
I have to say I have my doubts that it’s going to be feasible to bring down the “Do-The-Players-On-The-Team-Score-Enough-Points?” school of NBA basketball analysis in favor of something stressing intangibles. It seems like a pretty unassailable analytic approach to me.Report
How does this relate to the Cincy Bengals season?Report
I’m afraid that the Bengals don’t have quantifiable talent or “mental toughness,” so they’re basically screwed.Report
Wait. So Sepp Blatter and his cronies choose $#@!$%^ing Russia and Qatar for the 2018 and 2022 World Cup, and you’re writing about….basketball? C’mon, man!
I fart in Sepp Blatter’s general di-rection.
I know we’re supposed to think that money shouldn’t matter and all, but, uhh, really? We’re going to think that so strongly that we’re going to have four straight World Cups in places that are either hard to reach or are lacking in fundamental infrastructure?
I suppose I should at least take some consolation that Vladivostock was not one of the cities in Russia’s bid and all of the cities in that bid are west of the Ural Mountains and thus in Russia’s westernmost time zones…but still!Report
Dude, this has got to be the worst thread hijacking of all time.
And yes, real ‘murican sports take precedence over soccer.Report
Look, maaaaaaan….the soccer-loving contingent of the League needs to stick together in our ongoing war to bring Stalin’s Game to the Infidels. Writing about basketball on a day like today is appeasing the enemy.Report
Seriously? We’re in the middle of the most fascinating NBA season in decades and you want to talk about playing soccer in the middle of the desert?Report
No, I want to talk about not playing soccer in the middle of the desert!Report
Personally, I’m waiting for the pro wrestling posts to come back.Report
That depends on whether Linda Mac’s loss forces Vince to remember what it was like to make wrestling interesting.Report
Last month was not a shining moment, no. (Seriously… making a championship match about the status of the damn REFEREE????)
BUT!!! I still think we’re better off than most of 2008 and the first half of 2009.
We’re pointed in the right direction and we’re on the right track.Report
Sorry Mark, I’m with Will on this one. There’s a blogpost at the Economist where the author writes that England ought to be less concerned with hosting the World Cup and more concerned with winning it. I suggest the same goes for the US as well.Report
Do we have any bikefans at the League? I expect a post on fixies and the Tour (in no particular order) within a month.Report
Not within the month, but I’ll certainly blog about the Tour next year.
Although I really prefer sprint cycling.Report
Hats off to you, James. You must have been one helluva great cyclist (even able to enter the “zone”). My bike messenger career in Boston lasted less than two weeks–sudden opening of car door and down I went–well, up then down–ended up with broken collar bone. Just loved the job though, while it lasted.Report
Ow. The car door scenario was one of my greatest fears. I can still remember the bolt of ice that shot down my spine each time I heard that “click” as I was riding past a row of parked cars, but fortunately it never happened. I did have other car run-ins, but never that particular one that scared me the most.
I do flatter myself that I was a good biker (at the time).Report
Ah, yes, that “click” sound–indeed, the sound of possible, immanent peril. I always thought (foolishly, as it turned out) that I could anticipate when someone would actually open the car door from their body language (I know–that makes no logical sense) but there was a certain way they’d look into the side mirror that usually meant, you’re safe, no need to slow down, they’re aware of you and the speed you’re going. Crunch. Not always. I really loved your story of the bike messenger experience–wonderfully written–I felt “right there”, racing heart and all! And how it all tied into the experience of being “in the zone”, mindfulness, the peace that “passeth all understanding” kind of moment. You should post it again–I think everyone here would enjoy reading it. I also seem to remember another great story you wrote–the blackberry brandy moment. I really love your writing when you stray away from the political issues. (Geez, can’t imagine why that would be!) You’re quite a fine essayist, and I find you’re at your very best when leave the political realm. Not that the political issues comments aren’t usually interesting–speaking of, are the chapters of your new book still available online?Report
Without the great, interminable arguments about Player X or Team Y, sports fandom loses much of its appeal. And if a less talented team never beat the favorite, there wouldn’t be much point to watching at all.
Democrats lost, get over it.Report
This is not news. See the 2003 Lakers for another case.
Another example, if you had watched a lot of basketball in the late 90s (as opposed to just eating numbers, which I admit are tasty), you would have known that Glen Rice was a *horrible* pickup for the Lakers when they got him in 1998. The Hornets ran their entire offensive scheme off of “Get Glen Rice open shots off of high corner picks”. The Lakers were never going to re-engineer their team to do that.
I never expected this triad to work out well in year 1. It’s possible that they can form up as a good team, but these three players weren’t going to work well together until the offensive scheme gets worked out.
For a football example, you wouldn’t expect John Elway to flourish in a Run-n-Gun offense. Nor would Steve Young have worked quite so well in the vaunted West Coast Offense of the early 90’s 49ers… if the 9ers had never had a running back that could catch a ball in the flat.
Any sports team isn’t just a collection of guys who play the game. It’s that *plus* the style of game the team, as a collective, runs.Report
Pat, I want to give you a big freaking hug for writing something tangentially related to my (admittedly clumsy) post. The Glen Rice example is a good one. I would not have expected him to accept becoming the second or third option so readily.Report
If you’re a sports nutbar, basketball is the sport to follow. Baseball is more fun for raw statistics (and oddball events) and season-long strategy. Football is more fun for strategic in-game analysis.
But basketball (in-game) is small unit tactics (like soccer), where both teams have to execute both offensive and defensive strategies in very short time frames. It has the season longevity of baseball (where team dynamics and player health is distributed over long stretches of time) as opposed to the nearly cataclysmic period of football. The scoring frequency in a game greatly reduces the impact of exception events (which is the weakness I see in soccer and hockey).
I hated basketball as a kid, but got into basketball in college (I went to LMU from 89-93 and was there for the Paul Westhead/Hank Gathers team that scored 120 points a game). Started watching college ball, and had a roommate who was a huge Laker fan. Watched most of the games in the worst Laker season in history, and became a fan when they drafted Eddie Jones. With 2 kids, a full time job, and a doctorate program I don’t have the time to watch every Laker game of the season like I did back in the 90s, but I still watch when I can 🙂Report
If the big three of the Heat start playing well together, no one will stop them. That much talent in sync with one another will be awesome.Report
If they mesh, they’ll be very hard to beat in the regular season. I’m not so sure they’ll be unstoppable, though, especially in the playoffs.
Chris Bosh is skinnier than I was in high school, and that’s saying something. I love Zydrunas, but he’s not a low-post powerhouse. The regular season is about dynamic play, but in the playoffs the refs call an entirely different game, and you can beat the hell out of the other team. Dexter’s big enough, but he’s young and inexperienced (plus, three hunnert pounders can have all the experience in the world but it don’t mean a thing if they don’t have knees of titanium).
I’m hard pressed to imagine a team strategy with Bosh/Wade/James that is going to move a half-court offense slow enough to work against a real half-court team. Now, if they could pick up a journeyman rebounding/defensive specialist…Report
A great comparison case is the original Dream Team vs. the next set of guys who illegitimately adopted that monicker and proceeded to embarrass the U.S. There’s more than sheer talent involved, and it’s not just about hard work and mental toughness. It’s about willingness to really work with those around you. The original Dream Team had guys like Bird, Magic, and Barkley, guys whose will to win was far greater than their egos. Even Jordan, whose ego may outstrip the sum of all other egos on earth (based on his horrifying hall of fame introduction speech) wanted to win more than he wanted anything else. And, like Bird and Magic, he had a great knack for making the other players around him better.
I think LeBron James may be the most physically talented player to ever step onto the hardwood, but he’s yet to demonstrate that he really can make other players around him better or that he puts winning above everything else. I’m less certain about Bosh and Wade, but if they’re essentially like James in their attitude, these three will never truly mesh. Maybe two of them could, but three always creates a strange dynamic that’s hard to manage (says the father of three children).Report
I’m not sure I buy that LeBron doesn’t make other players around him better. Plenty of people have remarked that he’s an extremely gifted (and willing) passer, but the success of that facet of his game may depend on the type of players on the floor with him. In Cleveland, he was surrounded by spot-up shooters and guys who would run off screens and cut from the weak side all the time. Now he’s trying to run the offense with two other ball-dominant superstars, which necessarily limits his abilities as a playmaker.Report
I think LeBron can. I just don’t think that he regularly does. He’s a good passer, but he doesn’t necessarily pass in the right situations. Passing up a good shot for a pass to a poorer shooter–even if that shooter is in good position–doesn’t necessarily help the team.Report
It’ll be interesting — I believe their skills are going to drive each to their best, and that after they find their groove, they’ll be scoring big — so with any defense, they should do very good.Report
What he lacks, though, is the ability to be good without the ball – he often look lethargic when he is on the opposite wing. LeBron can shoot, he can drive, and he can dish – and he can do all of them crazy good. But all of those things mean that the ball always has to be in his hands. And that can be devastating in a regular season game. But in a 7 game series it is overly- predictable, and easy to coach against.Report
Hey, how bout this Cam Newton story? How much you think NCAA officials got under the table from Auburn?Report
I think the most telling (though I’m guessing unintentionally Zen-like in its wisdom) phrase in your post was describing the Heat as “the most celebrated collection of basketball talent on the planet.” This phasing speaks on many levels, as they are – unquestionably – the most celebrated. But just as important is what this phrase doesn’t say: The best. The hardest working. The winningest.
I have long held to the argument that basketball statistics are paradoxically the most dynamic and most meaningless is sports. Dynamic because the big shinies can indeed speak to long-term or momentary greatness: a back-to back triple double, a 20-20 night, 81. But they really aren’t meaningful in the way that, say, the baseball statistics are. And the Heat have two prime examples of that.
The first is Bosh. He has obvious talent, and has great career stats. But talent alone is overrated. And, more to the point, he has great career stats on a team so historically bad that he was often facing opponents so disinterested as to only be going through the motions. Because fair or not, averaging 25 ppg on the Rapts, the Clips or the Griz is not the same as averaging 25 ppg on the Celts, the Spurs or the Lakers. Even if a good team loses to you, they just don’t give a crap. (See: every player who parlayed a great stat line from a crappy team into a quickly non-existent career at a potential title contender.)
The second great example is the way that for the past five years, every statistical predicting model I’ve seen has shown whatever team LeBron is on has the team so miles ahead of everyone that they can’t be touched. And anyone who had watched any of his teams play against quality teams (of which there are few in the East) knew that they weren’t going to win a quality 7 game series against a tough-minded team. To a certain extent, I feel like those kinds of statistical models (such as the Hollinger model) are really created backwards – they look to reward the teams with the players that do well in fantasy play, but ignore intangibles – as they must. (Intangibles are, after all, intangible.) Look back at any stat-based predicting models over the past three seasons and see, before playoff time, where either the Celts or the Lakers ranked. Eighth? Tenth? Thirteenth? But what non-casual fan doubted they were going to beat the ugly off of, say, higher ranked Atlanta or Phoenix?
Lastly, I think you are doing what everyone else is doing with LeBron: Giving him his parade before he’s earned it. Since before his rookie year, he has been dubbed as a dynasty waiting to happen – but that has always been based on the potential of talent, never on results, or even – far more telling – his work ethic. People compare him to Tiger all the time, but Tiger is an icon because he won sooner and faster than anyone had previously thought possible in his sport. LeBron is an icon because ESPN decided he was.
The Heat aren’t struggling – they’re playing at a playoff making pace. They just aren’t playing like the greatest team on the planet. But that’s because they’re not the greatest, they’re the shiniest.Report
At least playing the Caviliers, they were more than shiny. Lebron lookedReport
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