Fresh as boiled cabbage
Having endured one of his commencement addresses, I naively assumed that my opinion of Newt Gingrich could not get much lower. Boy was I wrong! No, I’m not referring to his incoherent objections to the Ground Zero Mosque or his odious personal habits. Instead, I’m baffled by the persistence of his reputation as an “ideas guy” despite the fact that every “idea” he presents is either tired or transparently stolen from someone else.
His latest article for National Review is a case in point:
The U.S. should negotiate a series of bilateral treaties with receptive governments, carving out undeveloped sites the size of Hong Kong. Then a joint venture between the host government and the U.S. would launch brand new Free Cities in these places, with a complete set of American-style freedoms and responsibilities, guaranteed by treaty for 50 years.
Treaty-based Free Cities would entice and attract enterprising people and capital from around the world by offering: self-government; the rule of law; low taxes; reliable prosecution of corruption; freedom of faith, speech, and press; public registration of real property; a merit-based civil service; multi-ethnic meritocracy; zero tariffs; and an American university.
I actually find this proposal pretty fascinating. But it’s also vaguely familiar:
Rather than betting that aid dollars can beat poverty, Romer is peddling a radical vision: that dysfunctional nations can kick-start their own development by creating new cities with new rules—Lübeck-style centers of progress that Romer calls “charter cities.” By building urban oases of technocratic sanity, struggling nations could attract investment and jobs; private capital would flood in and foreign aid would not be needed. And since Henry the Lion is not on hand to establish these new cities, Romer looks to the chief source of legitimate coercion that exists today—the governments that preside over the world’s more successful countries. To launch new charter cities, he says, poor countries should lease chunks of territory to enlightened foreign powers, which would take charge as though presiding over some imperial protectorate.
But hey, it’s not as if the originator of this idea – Paul Romer – is a well-known economist. It’s not as if he was profiled in a major American magazine last month. It’s not as if “charter cities” have been covered just about everywhere.
On a more serious note, one of the reasons I’m drawn to Romer’s Gingrich’s proposal is because it offers an empirical testing-ground for various theories of economic development. One of the issues this blog has grappled with recently is Gregory Clark’s A Farewell to Alms, which suggests that institutions don’t matter and industrial development only proceeds after societies reach a Malthusian “tipping point” (go here for a critical take on the book; here’s a more sympathetic review from yours truly). If Romer is right and good institutions spur growth, free cities ought to quickly outpace their neighbors. If Clark is correct, however, institutional reforms – and, by extension, free cities – are a lost cause.
Natural experiments have already demonstrated as much.
There’s no particular reason to suspect, for example, that the breeding in and about Hong Kong was just a tiny bit better than in the rest of eastern China. Yet for several decades it was vastly wealthier. On the breeding hypothesis, one would have expected Beijing to have been the leading city of China, given that it was the center of the governmental/ruling class for so long.
Institutions pointed to Hong Kong, and Hong Kong delivered. The gap only began to close when the PRC’s economic policies went from completely insane to almost reasonable.Report
@Jason Kuznicki, I think Jim Manzi’s recent article on “causal densities” and the need to repeat social experiments over and over again is worth re-reading in this context:
http://www.city-journal.org/2010/20_3_social-science.html
Hong Kong’s success is suggestive, but not dispositive, is what I’m trying to say.Report
On a only loosely related topid have either of you ever read Guns Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond?Report
@North, I have! One of my frustrations with Diamond is that he can’t really explain why Europe beat China to the Industrial Revolution (although he does a pretty convincing job of explaining why Eurasia outstripped the rest of the world). Clark, on the other hand, has developed a pretty interesting thesis that explains why Europe industrialized first.
But yeah, Guns, Germs and Steel is great.Report
@Will, Horray! Someone to talk to about it! I thought he explained the difference between Europe and China well.
-Historically there was the example of the Chinese central authority banning what would have been a mini-industrial revolution by forbidding the use of water driven looms. Diamond’s thesis was that China (centralized and ruled by a single autocratic ruler due to its highly uniform geography) was able to squash new innovations by imperial dictate while Europe (fragmented into multiple competing autocratic polities by geography) never had a central authority that could prevent regional advances. Columbus, for instance, applied to and was rejected by several rulers before eventually getting support from Spain. A Chinese Columbus on the other hand would have applied to the Emperor, been denied, and spent the rest of his life fishing since he would have had no one else to apply to.Report
@North, I do recall Diamond’s arguments about how fragmentation and competition may have put Europe over the top. If I remember correctly, however, these were conjectures he tentatively put forward towards the end of the book that were not as well supported as his other research. His ideas about the Industrial Revolution strike me as plausible, but they were nowhere near as well developed as the rest of Guns, Germs and Steel.Report
@Will, Oh yes, absolutely. He was at his best when dealing with humanity during the sweep of millennia and tens of millennia, not the passage of mere centuries.Report
@Will, I should read Clark. But I’m queing up Collapse right now.Report
@North, Meh. I’m a big fan of “Guns, Germs and Steel” but “Collapse” annoyed me so much I didn’t finish it. It just seemed to be on ad-hoc hypothesis after another.Report
@Simon K, Hmm I’ll keep it in mind. Still I enjoyed GG&S so I will give Collapse a shot.Report
Did we discuss the clothing manufacturer that is now paying their employees in the Dominican Republic a “living wage” (something like three times what the other clothing factories are paying there) and, in turn, charging a few more bucks to college students who like to pay for stuff like this anyway? It struck me as a similar experiment- improving capitalism with more capitalism- probably the only thing that works.Report
@Rufus, Well that’ll work great for niche companies Rufus but can it be replicated on a broad scale. The consuming public has only demonstrated one reliable allegiance as a collective whole; that of low prices.Report
@North, I don’t know… I mean, it might eventually have to be replicated on a large scale. This creates serious competition for textile workers in that area, right? It stands to reason that you’d get the best workers and their neighbors, when they see them doing well, start rallying for higher wages at the other factories. Apparently, Chinese workers have started organizing, successfully, for higher wages and, at some point, higher wages/prices might be inevitable. The rising tide that lifts all boats and so forth.Report
@Rufus, I agree completely. Every upward step in wages tends to build up the wages all over when you’re in an economy that’s industrializing. Fingers crossed.Report