Guaranteed Wrong or Your Money Back!

Mark Thompson in reply to Kazzy says:

I don’t have a problem with your Eagles prediction at all, actually. They managed 10-6 last year with Vick starting 6 games, and their division is just as weak as it was last year. Foles would have been a top 5 QB if he had started the whole season, and he probably still has a little room to grow in his third year in the league, second as a starter, and second learning Chip Kelly’s system. They’ve got 3 near-guaranteed losses on the schedule, with road games against SF and GB, and a home game against Seattle, and I think their game at Indy is a tossup, but other than that, they should be clear favorites in every one of their games. I think they probably slip up in one or two of those, but somewhere in that 11-12 win range seems about right.

I do think your AFC East predictions are pretty off-base, though (not including New England, of course). Then again, no one other than New England is making the playoffs out of that division, so we’re really just debating degrees of suckitude.

But still….2-14 is historically bad, and the Bills are just consistently the same level of regularly bad. And I’d be shocked if Miami approaches .500. I’m going to say Buffalo goes 6-10 with 2 wins over Miami (who they beat twice last year as it was), a home win over the Jets, a home win over the Vikings, a home win over San Diego (who I think you’re overrating slightly and whose QB I think becomes very average against teams capable of regularly beating his o-line), and then either a home win against KC (who they always play tough) or a road win against Oakland (who is not going to be very good).

As for Miami, I don’t see how they start better than 1-3. They open against the Patriots, albeit at home, so that’s easy to predict as a loss. Then they travel to Buffalo for Buffalo’s first home game after Ralph Wilson died, Andre Reed was inducted, and Jim Kelly won a very public fight with cancer, and with a fan base itching to remind the world why it would be criminal to sell the Bills to Bon $#%^ing Jovi. On top of that, Buffalo absolutely dominated them in Buffalo last year despite starting a QB who couldn’t even make it past the first round of roster cuts this season. Then a home game against KC and a road game against Oakland, both of which are close to toss ups in my mind. Then an almost unwinnable home game against GB followed by a never-easy trip to Chicago, after which Miami could easily be 1-5 with the wheels coming off. They probably turn it around against Jacksonville and catch a worn-down Chargers team coming to town after a Thursday night game at Denver to get to 3-5. Then they hit a brutal stretch with road games against Denver, Detroit, New England, and Jersey/B, with a Thursday night home game against a physical Buffalo defense only a week removed from a bye and a regular home game against always-physical Baltimore thrown in. I can’t imagine they win more than twice in that stretch, and really I think they probably only grab 1. That puts them at 4-10 or 5-9 going into their last two games, both of which are winnable home games against Minnesota and Jersey/B, but could well involve either an interim coach or a lame duck coach. I think 7-9 is Miami’s ceiling, and more likely they fall in the 5-6 win range.

7-9 sounds about right for the Jets, although with Rex Ryan I could see them finishing anywhere between 4-12 and 10-6.

Turning to the AFC North….I’ve got no idea with that division, other than that Cincinnati should win it, probably with room to spare. Pittsburgh rightly revamped its running game, but I think Roethlisberger’s due to start declining, their D-line is horribly uninspiring, and Taylor and Polamalu were already in decline last year. On the other hand, their linebackers have a lot of potential; I think whether they live up to that potential will determine whether Pittsburgh goes 6-10, 10-6, or somewhere in between.

Baltimore’s got its own huge question marks, not least of which is their RB situation, both on and off the field. Their defense should be tough as usual, and I love the addition of Steve Smith, aging as he may be, but if they can’t get the running game back on track, they’re not going to get Flacco back on track either. I could see them fall anywhere between 7-9 and 11-5 depending on what happens with their RB situation. Their early schedule is really favorable, though, so even if they take some time to get the running game on track, they could well be undefeated through 4 games. With that in mind, I think they wind up with 9-10 wins as long as the running game improves even slightly.

In my heart, I think Cleveland should do better than 5-11, but reality will probably prove your prediction close to accurate. Pettine was an outstanding and underrated hire in my opinion, and not just because of what he did for the Bills last year. Their roster also has tons of young potential with Manziel and Josh Gordon, but of course the problem there is the word “potential,” and how Gordon’s suspension plays out will have a huge effect on their season; I’m already prepared to give up on Manziel, though – it’s clear that he doesn’t seem interested in building the work ethic needed to succeed as an NFL QB. If I were a Cleveland fan at this point, I’d almost root for Gordon to stay off the field all season and hope the Browns only win 3 or 4 games, trade Manziel before the draft for pennies on the dollar and take advantage of the fact that they’d then again have two very high draft picks (since they have Buffalo’s first rounder) by doing everything possible to grab Mariotta. I think that would set them up for a beautiful worst-to-first turnaround in 2015.Report