The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: 2024 Special Edition
In 2011, we made predictions about 2012 and then, in 2012, enjoyed reading those predictions.
Back in 2015, we made predictions about the coming nominations and then, in 2016, had a real hootenanny looking back again.
In 2018, we made predictions about what would happen in the mid-terms.
And, yes, in 2019, we made predictions about who the Democratic nominees would be.
In 2020, we made predictions about the presidential election.
In 2022, we made predictions about the off-year election.
Back in January, we made predictions about November.
It’s not too late to make predictions about November!
Who will be Trump’s running mate?
Will Biden still be on the ticket?
If it’s not Biden, who will be at the top of the ticket? Harris or… someone else? If it’s someone else, *WHO*?
Those are the big ones, I guess.
We’ve got a handful of minor predictions we could make about the senate (Michigan, Ohio, Montana) but that doesn’t matter, does it?
The only prediction that matters is the one about Biden.
Will he be on the ballot in November?
I was wrong about Trump not being on the ballot. I thought it would be DeSantis/DeWine.
So I’m wrong all of the time.
But my guess is that the choice needs to happen before the convention so that we can *FINALLY* have that dream that we’ve all had since we were children:
A BROKERED CONVENTION.
And the Convention is where we’ll find out that it’s not Biden and it’s not Harris and it’ll be Gavin Newsome.
There.
Gavin Newsome will be on the ballot come November.Report
I’m pretty happy with my January prediction focusing on whether Biden would be the candidate. Get tomorrow’s news today, here at OT!
As I understand it, the party has for some time been planning on having a virtual nomination this month, because waiting for the convention would keep the candidate off the ballot in Ohio. I think they probably have to proceed, but the pressure is going to be on Biden to decline. I think he relents. He’s an egotist, but a party slave most of all, and Democrats aren’t used to defying the press. I think the nomination goes to Harris.
I don’t know if this will matter, but you can’t have the POTUS and VPOTUS candidates from the same state. That would impact Harris and Newsom, unless Harris calls herself a DC resident. I don’t think it will matter, though. Biden will consider Harris to be his legacy and insist on her at the top of the ticket. She’ll go with Gina Raimondo as her running mate. They’ll get 230 electoral votes.Report
Between then and now I went from “Biden’s not *THAT* old” to “Holy cow, I didn’t know it was that bad.”
Like, you’d hear that he did something or other and it was really easy to shuffle it off to “I want to hear his team DENY it!” territory. “Oh, Biden had a senior moment at the Vatican? Sure he did.”
He was bad off during the debate. Even The Daily Show’s spin was something like “Biden had to not appear doddering, Trump has to not come across as an asshole!”
Of course, both failed…
But there does strike me as being an issue where one of those traits is a trait that you don’t want *ANY* of and the other is a trait that you don’t want a whole lot of… but a little is preferable to having none.Report
I don’t want an a$$hole president. Full stop. And outside the debate, Biden is a strong, motivating speaker. Remember his SOTU address in … checks notes …February? He wasn’t compromised then. He hasn’t been compromised in any of his press conferences or campaign speeches to date.
Mitch McConnel visibly glitched twice in six months. Twice. and no one called for him to go.
You may want Biden and Trump to somehow be equivalent … but they aren’t. And Biden remains the better President and thus the better candidate – if you care about accomplishments and defending democracy.
If you don’t I guess Trump will do . . .Report
(looks around)
PLENTY OF PEOPLE CALLED FOR MCCONNEL TO STEP DOWN.
Anyway, I don’t see the choice as being:
“Biden vs. Trump and therefore I should pick Biden”.
I see the choice as being:
“Biden is going to lose against Trump and so the choice is run Biden against Trump and lose to Trump *OR* you can have Trump go up against… WHAT’S IN THE BOX?”
The choice isn’t “Biden or Trump”.
Since I assume that Biden will lose to Trump, I see the choice as being “Trump or WHAT’S IN THE BOX”.
I appreciate that you’re pushing for Biden, though.Report
The choice will be Trump versus Biden. There is no magic box. And Biden still has a chance to beat Trump. As good or better a chance statistically then any of the options that would be in the magic box.
The question is – are you willing to accept Trump winning? because if you are, then it really doesn’t matter who he runs against does it?Report
The question is – are you willing to accept Trump winning? because if you are, then it really doesn’t matter who he runs against does it?
I accepted the last um… let’s see… since 1992… I have accepted the last five presidents. Prior to 1992, I wasn’t old enough to vote but I suppose I accepted those presidents too. So the last 10 presidents.
I will accept the next one.
Will you?Report
I accepted his election the first time. I don’t expect any massive illegalities that would propel him into office. As you may recall I also worked in his administration.
Apparently I wasn’t clear – are you willing to accept what he says he will do to the country after he is elected? DO you believe the policies and practices he has been clear about will negatively impact you at all? Anyone you care about? Your community?
I believe him. He was only stopped last time by the incompetence of the yes men he assembled around him. Given the SCOTUS immunity ruling yesterday, I believe he will badly hurt the country, my community, and probably family members and friends. I don’t think we as a nation or me as a leftist deserve that.
But you seem ambivalent. And I see that as a huge part of the problem.Report
Wait, I’m not sure what you’re asking.
Are you asking me if I will continue to pay taxes and complain about the government online, I will.
If you’re asking me if I’m going to join one of the tent cities in the quad at the local SLAC in an effort to display solidarity with government workers in the Eastern Time Zone, I’m not going to do that, no.
But, for what it’s worth, I’ll continue to argue that you, yes *YOU*, should have the right to own a gun and not argue that you should be disarmed by the authorities.Report
how about women’s body autonomy? Immigration? Arrest and prosecutions of Biden administration officials? Arrest and incarcerations of leftists? Project 2025?
Are you ok with all that coming to pass? Do you believe it will not hurt you, your friends, your loved ones or your community?Report
I fully support your right to own a gun and, if necessary, use it.
I don’t plan on using mine but I do wish that ammo was less expensive.
As for your Gish Gallop, I can only say that I see Trump as a backlash against previous excesses. All this has happened before, it’ll all happen again.
I kinda doubt that leftists will be incarcerated for being leftists. Maybe for, you know, burning police cars… but not for being leftists. As for the administration officials… if they broke the law, they should be, you know, arrested? This is one of those things where we may have a legitimate disconnect in world views.
(And Project 2025 is a Heritage Foundation wishlist. I don’t see it as any more likely than the 1619 Project to come to fruition.)
“Quit making wild pitches and maybe they’ll steal fewer bases”.Report
Trump is already calling for the arrest of Liz Cheney for doing nothing more than voting against him.
The track record of “Tut tut, calm down” pundits is so far 0.00Report
Similarly to how he called for Hillary to be locked up?
Do you think that it’s a fair conclusion to say “Trump’s 2nd term will be a lot like his first term”? Because I have seen a lot of people arguing that there is no material reason to believe that a Trump 2nd term won’t be a lot like his 1st term… making 2028 the most important election of our lifetimes.Report
Imagine talking to a normal person in 2000 or so and telling them this.
“Sure, he keeps demanding that the feds arrest his political opponents and his handpicked court just declared him immune from any sort of prosecution and his party has drafted plans to purge the DOJ of any disloyal members, but hey, nothing to worry about!”
OH, forgot to add: “And his loyal fans staged a violent attack on Congress and attempted the assassination of the Vice President and Speaker of the House in an effort to overthrow an election.
But again, and I reassure you, there is nothing to worry about!”Report
Eh, I’ve probably sat through too many “the most important election of our lifetimes” including one in 2004 that signaled the end of our democracy.
Unlike Mittler Rommelney, this guy really *IS* Hitler reborn? Oh. That’s really interesting.
Still voting 3rd Party. Lemme know if Biden legalizes weed or ends DST.Report
Is this all just a game to you Jaybird?Report
you know the answer to that Saul. No need to give him another Gish Gallop opportunity by asking him.Report
Do you think that Biden will be on the ticket come November?
(Not “should”. “Will’.)Report
yes. based on his track record to date as President I see no reason he shouldn’t be.Report
…it wasn’t a “should” question but, okay. You think that he will be the nominee come November.
Thanks.Report
No.
That’s why it’s kinda important to me to make sure that I see the world as it exists rather than how I would prefer it to exist.
Do you think that this is a situation where enough will-to-power will create the world you’d prefer?
Do *YOU* think that Biden will be on the ticket in November?
Not “should”. “Will”.Report
There will not be a brokered convention. Pundits and armchair pundits have been begging for a brokered convention since well before Trump descended that elevator in 2015.
The fact that pundits and reporters would rather salivate over the idea of a brokered convention instead of seriously dealing with Trump for what he is, is not a good look for them.Report
Will Biden be the nominee come November?Report
I’m pretty sure he will beReport
And a major reason why we are in this mess.Report
I am extremely angry at the pundit class for being incredibly irresponsible about the 2024 Presidential elections. The idea of brokered convention sexually excites them and the online ones don’t want to tell Zoomers to be sensible rather than dumb idiots. I wasn’t joking when I wrote that Trump has all the tools he needs to be a dictator.Report
I’ve had occasion to read old news clippings from the 1930s that sound like Politico.
They are all self important Savvy Insiders telling us with utter confidence that Mr. Hitler time in jail has mellowed him and so on.Report
The Importance of Being Savvy. These people need to see themselves as world-weary cynics despite being suburban dupes.Report
The youngest Sulzberger is clearly Trump-curious but knows most of his audience is Democratic or Democratic-leaning. He doesn’t want to alienate them and lose money but he wants to troll them as much as possible.Report
My predictions, randomly how I feel today and only semi numerate.
1. Biden remains nominee. Whether that’s the right decision or not I don’t know but I don’t think it will change.
2. Democratic House, odds 90% it is 5 seats or fewer, 10% 5-10 seats, 1% more than 10.
3. GOP Senate, 52-48- Tester holds on, Brown doesn’t, Hogan wins Maryland (this seems aggressive but he keeps beating low charisma machine politicians).
4. Biden wins 277 to 261 (holds PA, MI, AZ, NV, loses WI, GA, NC, dgfa the carved out districts, they won’t matter).
I will leave now to avoid the vegetables, especially on number 4.Report
These are reasonable predictions but I don’t think Hogan winsReport
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/02/biden-replacement-debate-harris-cnn-poll/
“This is a weird, complicated situation, so it’s worth putting a fine point on a few things.
For one thing, just because people are wary of Biden doesn’t mean they won’t vote for him. CNN’s poll found the same dynamic at play that many other polls have found: Biden’s support is primarily made up of people who support him because they oppose Trump.”Report
The main contest in Nov will still be Biden Harris vs Trump / x
X is going to be Doug Burgum
Electoral college will be 287 251 – everything will be the same as 2020, except Georgia will switch to Trump
Senate will be 52 48 GOP Dem (dems will lose Mt and Oh)
House will be 218 gop to 217 DemReport
Darn, should have went with the chalk pick for VP.Report
(other parts of the prediction are still holding, but gotta say, it was a close call for one of them)Report
Hmmn, some people are breaking the rules by commenting without predictions.
60% chance Biden is on the ticket
35% chance Harris is leading the ticket
5% other (East of Rockies/West of Blue Ridge)
No idea who Trump picks… don’t care and it doesn’t matter.
Saving election predictions until the election prediction time capsule.
My emerging Biden take is that many may be writing off the election, and therefore candidates with an interest in 2028 don’t want to ruin their chances with a half-baked unfocused campaign that isn’t ramped and staffed properly with messaging they want to take… would be like cooking a meal you don’t like in someone else’s kitchen. Which means Harris might just be willing to take that gamble. The flip side is that no-one wants the gamble, so they might as well ride Biden as far as he’ll go and see what happens. Democracy, in this case, dies in ambition.Report
Someone pointed out that a good rule of thumb for coups is that they’re either fast and successful… or they fail.
We’re down to the wire for “fast”… what’s the deadline? COB?Report
A good rule of thumb for avalanches is that they don’t run out of time, they run out of momentum. As long as it’s gaining mass it’s an increasing threat. Nixon stepped down after a year and a half of an avalanche.Report
Sure, but I’m not 100% convinced it is or needs to be a coup.
Executive negotiations on their exit may be closer to the mark; what they get, who they bequeath things to, and how their legacy is shaped by the nature of their exit. That happens all the time and can be lengthy or short depending upon circumstances.
Timing, it seems to me, will at least partially be determined by prosaic logistical limitations like ballot access, convention planning, and anything else that would determine the *real* deadline other than election day itself.Report
Well, “the media” (however you want to define it) seems to be in the middle of saying that Biden needs to be replaced while major Democratic players like Obama, Clinton, and that Pennsylvania guy all made somewhat big statements about how one just does not engage in changing horses midstream.
So, at the very least, we’re debating over who’s in charge here… and who is Al Haig.Report
It’s more confusing than that. Insiders are starting to blame each other anonymously in the press, and it’s hard to tell if, say, “a former Obama official who has worked closely with President Biden” is leaking *as* a former Obama official or as someone who has worked closely with President Biden.Report
Nate Silver says:
He and the betting markets are putting the odds of Biden not being the candidate at >50%.Report
OK I guess I’ll agree with the majority here — Biden doesn’t want to step down and there’s too much risk and complication to make an open-and-shut case for it, so he’ll be the one on the ballot in November.
But I’m wondering if we’ll start to see a shift in tactics from here on out, where there’s a concerted effort to try to raise Harris’ profile, get her more visibly involved and burnish her reputation, and the Biden messaging starts shifting away from “He’s great, don’t believe your lying eyes” to “He’s fine, but the future is hard to predict, and Harris is ready to step in should the need arise”.
Either way, it’s Trump’s election to lose at this point. And if anyone could lose it in this situation, he can, but it will take more than just the usual Trumpiness.Report
In the liberal-sphere I’m seeing more and more posts and comments like “We aren’t voting for a person- We’re voting for future Supreme Court justices”.
Making the election a referendum on Trump, SCOTUS, Project 2025, and reproductive rights seems like a good path to follow.
Like the post I made about the DOJ investigation of a corrupt police department, whether the people of that town get justice or not very much hinges on the presidential election.Report
I’m sure that’s good enough for a solid 40% of the electorate, maybe even more.Report
There is never any guarantee that democracy and the rule of law will win elections. People all over the world and throughout history have enthusiastically voted to strip themselves of freedom.
About the only thing pro-democracy advocates can do is speak the truth.Report
I made 7 predictions in January and the only one I’m feeling iffy about is Nikki nuking Iran and Syria in 2026. I guess I’ll let the other 6 ride.Report
“Fish” it. I no longer care. I’ll vote for whomever the Democrats nominate but otherwise I’m checking out. The ignorant seem more happy anyway. It was a good run.Report