So here’s what I need from you: I need you to look at the upcoming 2018 elections. Both the ones in the House where every representative is up for re-election and the ones in the Senate where only one third of them are (you can see the states/senators here).
Currently, the House of Representatives has 235 Republicans and 193 Democrats (and 7 vacancies). The Senate has 51 Republicans and 47 Democrats and 2 Independents (but the independents are both caucusing with the Dems).
Your predictions need only cover what the House and Senate will look like after the elections shake out. I mean, if you really want to, you can explain which State Houses and State Senates will also flip… but you don’t *HAVE* to. (Are there any interesting ballot initiatives out there? Throw down your predictions for your favorites of those too!)
Now, of course, we’ve got 153 days until November 6th, 2018 and that means that we’ve got somewhere between 100 and 300 news cycles and any one of those news cycles could change everything so this isn’t an attempt to get you to say something that will have other people point and laugh at you if you get it wrong. It’s more that I think that there is benefit to making measurable predictions about a measurable output of a system and if one’s predictions are particularly far off, one can say “huh, I’m thinking about this incorrectly” and change how one thinks about it.
Or, I suppose, one can say “well, you ought to understand… I was right to be wrong and the people who made the technically accurate predictions were using flawed thinking to make their predictions and because it was mostly luck that got them there so they were wrong to be right.”
Lay down your markers!