Elections In The Meantime
An unpopular sitting incumbent Republican executive that confounded pollsters to get into office and might have to pull off a similar upset to get re-elected. A moderate Democrat that is taking heat from the left and hopes to win with the middle. A heated debate on whether a state has become too partisan for one party to ever win even locally there again. Legislative races fought under the shadows of sexual assault allegations in the news and a conversation on race after a series of scandals shakes the entire executive cabinet. If you think I’m talking about the environment so far for the 2020 presidential election cycle, you’d be wrong. I’m talking about the various storylines happening in the biggest of the 2019 off-year elections.
It’s understandable that the media is focusing all of its electoral coverage resources on the first phase in the battle to decide who’ll be in the White House as we enter a new decade; but there are smaller races in 2019 that deserve a look as well. Yes, a sitting incumbent president may actually lose for the first time since I was three years old and yes, there’s an interesting debate fallout occurring as I write this piece regarding “Big Dog” Joe Biden potentially showing signs of that historic meltdown everyone seems to have been anticipating from him. However, I’d argue there’s just as much drama and tantalizing possibilities in the off-year races as well. So while there’s certainly plenty for me to write about in regards to 2020 we still have plenty of months, news cycles, and poll fluctuations before Iowa, so you’ll have to humor me this one time so I can go over elections that are going to be decided THIS year instead of next. In fact, these races will culminate in just around four to five months from now.
Before I begin let me just get some things out of the way. There are thousands of races happening this year that we never hear about. From local city council and mayoral races to interesting statewide initiatives to local cabinet positions to other ballot questions that will be decided. You should always keep track of your own local races and turn out to vote even in a year before the presidential race as these races tend to elect people into positions that effect you more personally than a federal race likely will; and sadly they nonetheless see very little turnout. But the only races I’ll be focusing on in this particular piece are what I believe to be the biggest races of the year, and it just so happens to be pretty much an all southern affair.
– Kentucky: A Potential Preview Of The 2020 Presidential Election?
Matt Bevin Pulled Off An Upset To Win Office, He May Have To Pull Off Another Upset To Keep It.
For what is extremely likely to be just circumstantial reasons, Kentucky’s gubernatorial elections of late have ended up sort of previews of what happens the following year when the country goes to the polls to elect a president. In 2003 a Republican victory preceded George W Bush’s close fought re-election, in 2007 a Democratic victory precede Barrack Obama’s sweeping victory, in 2011 another Democratic victory precede Obama’s hard-fought re-election, and in 2015 the race was eerily just like the presidential race that would follow.
That year an unpopular among the “establishment” Republican politician in Matt Bevin, a private businessman who had failed to defeat then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in a primary the year before, had overcome suspicions and an outsider image to win the nomination of his party for governor. Democrats in turn had played it safe and nominated Jack Conway, the state’s then-sitting attorney general who had come up short in an open seat senate race in 2010. Conway, like Hillary Clinton, seemed to have been the “their turn” candidate and lead in the average polling from the start of the race up until election day. Bevin however, like Donald Trump, pulled off an upset going from being down by as much as five points in some final polls to winning statewide by nearly nine.
Bevin’s win, like the 2016 presidential race, was a shock to the conventional wisdom of a Conway victory. However, just like in 2016, polling data suggested a last second tightening towards the red team with some final polls actually showing momentum towards Bevin. And like in 2016, the down ballot races saw Republicans enjoy a mini wave of sorts in the state that year via the Bevin upset’s coattails. And now Bevin faces the very same tests that Trump will face come next year.
Like the president, Bevin has ended up an unpopular sitting incumbent. Polling suggests that as he seeks re-election he is arguably the most unpopular governor in the country today – with the latest Morning Consult poll showing him at just 33% approval to 52% disapproval in the same state the president is wildly popular in and in which he is extremely likely to win again in a landslide next year. Bevin even underperformed in his primary; favored to win by huge margins according to polls a month before, he ended up with a mediocre for an incumbent 52% vote share among his fellow Republicans. On paper he should be beatable.
But just like in the ongoing 2020 presidential race, Democrats have no room to get cocky. Besides the obvious fact the state’s partisanship is a problem for them, they did have Bevin on the ropes four years earlier and he still overcame the odds to beat them. So, they seem to have played it safe once again by nominating previously-popular Democratic governor Steve Beshear’s son, Andy Beshear, the sitting attorney general of the state (Just like Conway was) who barely won his post while Bevin was surprising the pundits. Beshear survived what turned from a rout to an extra close primary battle and according to polling he has a serious shot to dethrone the unpopular governor, but between the polls available as I write this, he only leads by one and the most recent polling had him down by six.
Will state partisanship reign supreme or will fundamentals in the background of the race matter more? Whatever happens, Trump finds himself in a sort of similar situation today and he might want to take some notes on how this one plays out.
– Louisiana: A Moderate Democrat Tries To Build A Legacy
Unlike Bevin, John Bel Edwards Is A Popular Governor In His State; But The State’s Partisanship Could Haunt Him
In 2015, the blue team did have one major highlight happen for them in Louisiana. Weeks after Matt Bevin stole victory from the jaws of defeat, they won the gubernatorial runoff election by double digits. How did they win in a red state that would go on to back Trump by a landslide the following year? A perfect storm and a perfect candidate.
Democrats ended up getting behind John Bel Edwards, the then Minority Leader of the state house. Edwards is a moderate with a background that includes military service and is one of the few remaining pro-life Democrats. With the then-sitting GOP governor Bobby Jindal leaving office very unpopular and Republicans getting behind the controversial scandal-plagued Senator David Vitter, Edwards came from behind to easily win the open seat.
In office Edwards has lived up to his moderate image. He signed conservative pro-life bills limiting abortion while also signing executive orders to protect the LBGT community in the state. He’s been openly pro-gun rights while also expanding Medicaid and pushing for a reduction in the prison population. He’s been active in trying to work with the Trump administration as best he can for his state, while giving teachers raises and working to lower the uninsured numbers in the state. This type of governing in a red state has led to Democrat Edwards being a net popular governor, posting as of this writing a 47% approval rating to 32% disapproval rating in Morning Consult’s polling. Polls as of today show him favored to easily win first place in the first round and have a lead in the runoff. On paper he should be favored for re-election.
But just as Bevin’s unpopularity in Kentucky may be trumped (no pun intended) by state partisanship, Edward’s popularity in the same state that refused to back moderate Senator Mary Landrieu’s re-election five years ago may not be enough. Republicans will likely attempt to nationalize the race and Edwards’ popularity is a plurality, not a majority – meaning plenty of unsure voters could be persuaded to think it is time for a change in the governor’s mansion. Also, Edwards will probably end up being forced into a runoff where the race will likely tighten as the red team will likely nominate someone without the baggage David Vitter had four years prior.
Like with some federal figures in the blue team, Edward’s moderate stances, especially on issues like abortion, have gotten him some flack from his own side. But for Democrats to win in a state as red as Louisiana is these days, a popular moderate Democrat that governs is their only real chance at any power here. And even then, we may learn this fall that’s not enough anymore.
– Mississippi: Open Seat Test For Blue Dogs
Democrat Jim Hood Has Won Easily In Red Mississippi For Decades, Can He Pull That Off Again?
But if Louisiana’s sitting blue dog governor is trying to prove he can keep office, his neighbors in Mississippi are going to decide if they’ll give the same opportunity to a blue dog of their own in a potentially competitive open seat race for governor there. Mississippi isn’t as red as, say, a Kentucky or a Louisiana, but it remains aligned with the red team, even backing a gaffe-prone GOP Senator in her re-election bid last year. One of the few prominent Democrats left in the state is the sitting attorney general who knows how to win in the state as a blue dog, Jim Hood.
For years Democrats have fantasized about Hood running for the seat as he arguably is their best chance to get the governor’s mansion. He’s been attorney general in the state as it has transformed into becoming much more partisan towards the right. In 2003 he was elected to the position in a landslide and in 2007, 2011, and 2015 won re-election by double digits each time. Now with an open seat battle planned for the fall for the gubernatorial seat, Hood has finally decided to go for it.
Unlike Edwards who was able to win thanks to a perfect storm of things in 2015, Hood won’t have anywhere near such help. The Mississippi sitting GOP governor, Phil Bryant, is leaving office a clearly popular governor as he posts a 52% approval to 25% disapproval in the latest Morning Consult findings. Hood’s likely opponent won’t be a controversial federal official but the state’s lieutenant governor, Tate Reeves, who won statewide office by landslide margins in the same election years Hood was easily winning his own statewide races. Polling as of today between this hypothetical but likely matchup shows a very tight race with a very slight edge to Reeves, but some higher quality polling being more bullish on Hood.
A Democratic victory here is arguably the longest reach out of the three gubernatorial races happening this year, but it isn’t anywhere near impossible either. This alongside Kentucky and Louisiana could lead to three gubernatorial races all within the same year that are hard fought competitive affairs with sweeps or heartbreak for either party completely plausible.
– Virginia: A Cabinet In Scandal, But Are Voters Feeling Blue?
Governor Northam And His Cabinet’s Scandals Aren’t Hurting His Party As Much As Some Predicted They Would
There are non-gubernatorial elections happening this year that I consider to be just as interesting and arguably important. In Virginia, a state that has transformed from red to purple and may be turning blue of late, the state’s Democratic party seems to be poised for a great off-year election. They still might be, but unexpected events have given Republicans a path.
In 2017, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam overperformed polls that on average suggested a close victory for him by winning by nine points. Down the ballot his victory had coattails that saw a mini wave in the state that gave the blue team the cabinet and moved them from out of reach of flipping the state house and senate to being within striking distance. With the trends of the state and the governor and cabinet proving to be popular, Democrats were favored to flip the legislature this time around.
Then came one of the worst couple days in Virginia Democrats’ history. Governor Northam and the attorney general were discovered to have dressed up in black face in their youth. The governor even had a bizarre press conference featuring his wife having to stop him from moonwalking. To make things go to a whole other level, the lieutenant governor was accused of sexual assault and is still as of this writing dealing with those allegations. It was an absolute perfect storm of scandals that on paper you’d think would damage the blue team’s hopes for this year’s state races.
But if partisanship and polarization favor the GOP in the southern states holding gubernatorial elections, Virginia’s transformation into a bluer leaning state may help Democrats weather this storm here. Northam initially saw a big hit in his approval polls but has bounced back to become a very slightly plurality popular governor, posting a 40% approval to 36% disapproval in the latest Morning Consult poll, and other recent state-based polling suggests he’s more popular than that. State observers continue to be bullish on the Democrats flipping one or both of the state legislatures this fall. If Democrats sweep, they’ll have full blown control of a state that even Bill Clinton at one point couldn’t flip.
These are but a few of the many races happening THIS year, but these are arguably the highest profile ones and could tell us something about the current political environment and coalitions we’re dealing with as we continue on to 2020. I get the high record-breaking early interest in the 2020 election; I share that interest myself. But just keep in mind that its not all about 2020 and that election night(s) 2019 has/have plenty intrigue in itself.
First: I remain absolutely astounded that Northam retained his job in today’s current political and cultural climate. I don’t know Virginia’s politics really at all, so maybe there is another force at work that I am unaware of, but either this is just sheer force of will on his part or further empowerment of the executive branch, which seems to be happening everywhere.
Secondly: I have some opinions about Bevin. In my 44 years I don’t think I have ever disliked a politician more. To start with, he’s one of a very few governors we have had that weren’t born in the state. I’m a believer that unless you grew up drinking Kentucky tap water, you shouldn’t sit in the governor’s mansion. He has also attacked nearly every major educational institution in the state, either directly or through proxy. He seated an entirely new board, loyal to him, at the University of Louisville. He has ‘audited’ Jefferson County Public Schools (Louisville). He has messed with the University of Kentucky. On top of this he has transferred state ownership of several important historical sites to private entities, one of which was a church congregation. I don’t think he is actually corrupt or has done anything illegal, but he’s just very wrongheaded in his approach to politics.
The worst part about Bevin though is that he takes many of his cues from the president. His social media is similarly antagonistic. He picks fights instead of staying above the fray. It never feels like he puts the Commonwealth first. With all of that said, the problem with unseating him is the same problem we have with Trump: can the other side actually produce a viable candidate and run a successful campaign? Andy’s father’s administration has some corruption issues, but no more than what is normal in state politics. I’ve heard through mutual acquaintances that Andy is a bit of a turd, but you sort of have to be to make it far in politics. My main concern, as referenced in the OP is how much Andy struggled in his last campaign. he has to do a LOT better. I’m going to vote for him, no matter what, but he will need to sway a lot of people out in the state and that is a tall order, despite Bevin’s popularity numbers. My suggestion would be to keep any national politicians out of the state until this thing is over. Dems are still respected in much of Kentucky at the state level but on the national level, outside of a the major cities, they are despised.Report
Watching Virginia from just on the other side of the river (meaning a shared media market and having professional and social circles bleeding into NoVa) I think the situation is another one of those little episodes exposing the disconnect between the media and the Democrat rank and file.Report
I’m a believer that unless you grew up drinking Kentucky tap water, you shouldn’t sit in the governor’s mansion.
Since I moved to Colorado 31 years ago, the state’s population has gone from 3.3M to 5.7M, mostly along the Front Range urban corridor. (From smaller than Kentucky when I moved here to 1.2M people larger.) The “median” Coloradan looks very much like me — moved here from somewhere else, raised kids here, worked for a big business, worked for a small business. Our recent governors reflect that trend: Bill Owens grew up in Texas and moved here from Washington, DC; John Hickenlooper is from the Northeast and moved here as a geologist who stayed after the mid-1980s oil bust; Jared Polis was born in Colorado, then mostly grew up in California, went to college at Princeton, and eventually returned.
When I worked for the state legislature, I had the same conversation on some budget issues over and over: “With all due respect, Representative X, Colorado is no longer a small, poor, rural state. We are medium sized, relatively wealthy, urban/suburban, highly educated, and the economy is driven by services, technology, and specialized manufacturing.” One of the biggest problems the legislature struggles with is that much of the state — in square mile terms — is still small, poor, and rural.
Redistricting after the census will be both interesting and boring. We will almost certainly get an eighth US House seat and it will go to the Front Range — that’s the interesting part. The boring part is that the districts will be drawn by a commission. The only question is whether the split will be 5-3 for the Democrats or 4-4.Report
I think in a place like Colorado it makes sense to be open to people that weren’t born there. Kentucky still has it’s transplants (god love ’em) but we’re still mostly a people with deep roots. My family has been here close to 200 years. It’s like that all over the state. It feels like you still have to have that connection to really build a following here.Report
I think Northram could win in Kentucky. Heck, if we can find a French-Vietnamese restaurateur named Dior Tri to run as a third party candidate, he’d have a good chance of winning. Bevin and Beshear both barely won their primaries against Random Country Bumpkin, so about 45% of both parties’ voters aren’t happy with their candidate.
Bevin is like a character on Lost. You watch him for years and still can’t figure out what he’s really up to, or why, or which side he’s on, or if he’s representing some side that hasn’t been revealed yet, or if his character is just a joke one of the writers is playing on the audience.
However, we’ve survived Bevin’s antics thus far, and I’m not sure the same will be true of Andy Beshear, who is likely to sue us into oblivion over some obscure codicil in a back appendix of the Federal Register, just to be a jerk.
People liked his father pretty well, and his father wasn’t marred by scandals. But I think Andy is like a preacher’s kid or a sheriff’s kid, both notorious for being narcissistic, untouchable, bullying, d-bags.
So, given how each candidate did in their respective primaries, about 55% of each parties’ voters are loyal to their candidate, and even that was probably heavily influenced by electability, considering that their opponents were both running as Over-the-Top Bumpkins. For those who never saw one of the challenger’s campaign ads, it took me a while to realize they were real, and not Saturday Night Live trolling us with parody Hillbilly politician skits.
Assuming the state was evenly split between R and D, to ease the math, the loyal voters would go 27.5% Bevin, 27.5% Beshear, and 45% for someone else, if there is a someone else who could draw support from voters in both parties.
It’s doubtful enough Democrats would be willing to write in “Cocaine Mitch”, which would McConnell appoint a lieutenant governor from a DC political retirement home and then resign and return to the Senate, so recent retirees like Bob Corker, Orin Hatch, and Trey Gowdy are out.
The candidate also has to be a resident of the state, which rules out most celebrity picks like Tom Hanks, but not William Shatner, who has a farm here, or coach Calipari, or Jennifer Lawrence, who will turn 30 in the summer of 2020, meeting the minimum age requirement.
But we also shouldn’t overlook the idea of just picking a random person out of the phone book. As long as they don’t have outstanding felony warrants, they’d probably be a better pick than what we’ve got.Report
Unfortunately at the moment we just don’t have any good public figures in the state that could be talked into running and have that corner-to-corner appeal. Personally, I’d like to see someone from one of the exurban artisan farms get interested in politics. A lot of them came from the cities, still do business there but they are committed to understanding and building good relationships with their neighbors. Seems like that’s a good start.
I was also kind of digging that Sellus Wilder guy from the last senate race. He seems like he could stir things up.Report
Well, maybe it’s time we expand our thinking and look outside the state. Who has lots of money, fame, political power, and comes to Kentucky a lot?
What about that British woman with the corgies who likes horse racing, or someone in her immediate family. Heck, Theresa May is out of a job and can’t accomplish anything, which is exactly what we need in a governor. Just task her with pulling UK out of the SEC and we’ll be set for four years of entertaining failure.
Moving on, Ivanka Trump looks great in Derby hats and she’d be a shoe-in. We’d probably get a whole new governor’s mansion out of it, and it would be fabulous.
Princess Noor Pahlavi from New York, or her dad (supposed to be the current Shah Iran) would add some much needed elegance and flair to the state, reminding the rest of the country that we’re more than “chicken biscuits”.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia have rich crown princes coming out of their ears. Convince one to turn born-again Baptist and blow $100 million on the campaign and the governorship is theirs.
Or instead of thinking big, perhaps we should think small. Peter Dinklage would make an excellent governor. Or we could get a GoT star with a deep love for our bourbon industry, like Kitt Harrington or Sean Bean. As long as we keep them away from distillery tours they would do fine, although Sean Bean would undoubtedly become the second Kentucky governor to be assassinated because he never survives any role.
But instead of all those wonderful possibilities, we’ve have to pick between Matt Bevin and Andy Beshear, who at best should be cartoon leaders of Springfield or Southpark.Report
I have a friend that travels the entire state inspecting bridges. I have a bunch of other friends that travel the state as archaeologists. There are wildlife management officers and biologists. Folks from the Ag Dept that meet with people through the extension offices. All of those people should be developing the kinds of corner-to-corner relationships and knowledge that could serve a governor well. That’s where my head is at.Report
#notallseanbeanmovies
https://filmschoolrejects.com/7-movies-where-sean-bean-doesnt-die-13c84af5bf6b/Report
The Supreme Court’s standing decision means that the less gerrymandered map stands and this means that Virginia’s House of Delegates will probably go Democratic. Northam managed to ride out his scandal fairly well.Report
I’d throw the 2020 Doug Jones Senate election in the mix as well. If the Republicans run a standard candidate, I’d be very surprised to see a repeat of his one-off defeat of Roy Moore.
Jon Bel Edwards is one Re-election, one Funder, and one clever and ambitious adviser away from making a play on the mythical Upper Left Quadrant.
My scalding hot-take: His success might end the Democratic party as we know it.Report
It really won’t, since his abortion bill went way beyond what even most pro-life Democrat’s want, plus the other issue is many of the people in that Upper Left quandrant are minorities who won’t be comfortable with the alliances that somebody like Edwards would have to make to be viable nationally.
It’s one thing to make alliances with good ole’ boys Republican in suburban Baton Rogue who were Democrats a decade ago to get things passed. It’s another thing to make national alliances with people who have attacked every national level Democrat, including those national level Democrats that upper level minority Democrats like, such a the Clinton’s and Obama, as Satan Incarnate.Report
I think you are wrong about the upper left Minorities… or rather, the story you tell is what you have to hope happens (if you are a partisan Democrat) not what will happen. That is, if/when the Upper Left comes into play, it won’t happen the way I think you think it will… or it won’t come into play.
To be fair, it’ll wreck both parties… but differently each; that’s what realignment looks like. But hey… maybe Jon Bel Edwards is already a broken vessel… I’m suggesting that after Trump it’ll surprise us in the way *like* a Jon Bel Edwards… be it him or not.Report
I mean, my personal opinion is I think a very likely result in Louisiana is despite how far right Edwards has gone on abortion, he still loses re-election because he also kept LGBT protections, didn’t go after immigrants, etc. because most of the white “Upper Left” quadrant want social conservatism/fiscal liberalism for themselves and social conservatism/fiscal conservatism for people unlike them.Report
Has it always been like this and we just had no way to get the word out?Report
Pretty much.
Wait, I thought you were talking about the Epstein proto-scandal.Report