The Losing of One’s Mind Online: Mar-a-Lago Search Warrant Edition
Mar-a-Lago, photo by Jack Boucher, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
All I really wanted to do was to eat my grilled cheese, watch Grease with the family following the sad news of the wonderful Olivia Newton-John having passed, and deal with the drama of the youngest youngin’s batch of cookies not turning out just quite right.
But, noooooooo, all political hell had to break loose as the Feds executed a Mar-a-Lago Search Warrant:
Former President Donald Trump said Monday that the FBI “raided” his home at Mar-a-Lago in Florida and even cracked his safe, with a source familiar with the matter telling NBC News that the search was tied to classified information Trump allegedly took with him from the White House to his Palm Beach resort in January 2021.
Trump also claimed in a written statement that the search — unprecedented in American history — was politically motivated, although he did not provide specifics.
“These are dark times for our Nation, as my beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents,” Trump said in a lengthy email statement issued by his Save America political committee.
“After working and cooperating with the relevant Government agencies, this unannounced raid on my home was not necessary or appropriate,” Trump said before bemoaning: “They even broke into my safe!”
Trump lawyer Christina Bobb, who said she was present for Monday’s search, told NBC News that Trump and his team have been “cooperative with FBI and DOJ officials every step of the way,” while adding that the bureau “did conduct an unannounced raid and seized paper.”
Thus, the freakout commenced. Before the Mar-a-Lago staff had even gotten the gates closed behind the departing Feds, the interwebs started losing their minds over the events of the day. Predictable after nearly six years of Trump coverage that rages from periodic “WE GOT HIM THIS TIME FOR SURE” to the constant drumbeat of “POLITICAL WITCH HUNT” from the former president’s very own lips, tweets, and whatever it is that social media platform that doesn’t really work he is using now is called. The Mar-a-Lago Search Warrant was immediately cudgelized by his online supporters who sang of the Stasi in a synchronized staccato that I’m sure was totally organic and not at all coordinated.
A “banana republic,” declared the sitting governor of Florida who not very discretely wants to be more than just the governor of Florida.
Of course let’s hang the American flag upside down because the country is in distress along with unhinged civil war comparisons and “political persecution” as tweeted out by the dunderheaded sitting congresswoman from Georgia who had spent the previous weekend publicly enjoying Trump’s company at a golf event.
Not to be outdone on the sheer widespread panic front, there is “If they can do it to a former president, imagine what they can do to you.”
That last one is from the official Twitter feed of the House Judiciary GOP. Just ruminate on that a spell.
Oh, good living hell. The republic isn’t going to fall, at least not today, and Trump isn’t going to be seeing the inside of a courtroom from being up on charges anytime soon, if ever. Probably especially not from this Mar-a-Lago search warrant since we can mostly deduce what this was apparently about:
A senior government official told NBC News that the FBI was at Mar-a-Largo “for the majority of the day” and confirmed that the search warrant was connected to the National Archives.
Trump this year had to return 15 boxes of documents that were improperly taken from the White House, the National Archives and Records Administration, or NARA, said in February.
“In mid-January 2022, NARA arranged for the transport from the Trump Mar-a-Lago property in Florida to the National Archives of 15 boxes that contained Presidential records, following discussions with President Trump’s representatives in 2021,” the National Archives said in a statement Feb. 7.
The same month, the National Archives and Records Administration asked the Justice Department to examine whether Trump’s handling of White House records violated federal law, a story first reported by The Washington Post and subsequently confirmed by NBC News sources.
The New York Times on Monday first reported the FBI focus on the National Archives materials.
Just hours before agents searched Trump’s residence, the FBI notified the Secret Service about the bureau’s plans to execute the warrant, according to a Secret Service official. The Secret Service facilitated access to the property, the official said, but did not participate in any aspect of the search.
The legal part of these documents get sticky as far as getting a conviction of criminality because – with notable exceptions – the president can declare just about anything he wants to be unclassified. While even his own supporters concede that the paperwork involved may not be up to snuff, you can see the legal fight that would be involved would not be quick or clean.
The Mar-a-Lago search warrant is also not – despite the interwebs and some news network talking heads insistence – related to anything January 6th related at this time. Or any other of the various investigations that are always one step away from Donald J. Trump being frog marched off in cuffs as some have been predicting since his decent from the golden escalator and into political relevancy. But it also is not a nothing, and unless there was some serious malfeasance somewhere in the chain of acquiring a federal search warrant from a federal magistrate to executing the Mar-a-Lago search warrant, there is something there. Something, like the already known taking of documents from the White House that is against the law, that needs fully investigated.
This has long been part of the problem of a Donald Trump-centric media and political discourse. It is always, in all things, a “choose your own adventure” of media coverage and social media hot takes with folks cranking the hyperbole and vitriol to 11 since they can avatar the situation to become what they always wanted to be anyway. “Let the investigation play out” is not a popular choice. It doesn’t get you straight to the ending you want to get to so badly you cheat the “choose your own adventure” and skip ahead to make sure you get it.
But it is the right way.
Let the investigation play out. Turn down the noise of “we got him this time FOR SURE” and the caterwauling, justifying, pretzel logic that not only is Trump above the law, but cannot even be investigated because of Hillary, Hunter, or a thousand other things from the previous edition of “choose your own adventure” political corruption. “They can do it to you” only makes sense if you accept the premise that you are exactly like Trump, just as amoral and casually corrupt to break norms and rules with thoughtless will. Then, you see, everyone is doing it, so it is totally wrong to even investigate because then you are just picking on the one person who knows what’s really going on…or something, witch hunt garble garble.
Just let the story breath. Let the investigation play out. Then start parsing out if that investigation was properly conducted and if its conclusions have merit.
Most importantly, go do something else while the investigation works its course. Take a walk. Pet a puppy. Watch Grease and let the dearly departed Olivia Newton-John sing “Hopelessly Devoted To You” about Danny Zuko, and let that timeless piece of work stay just that. Singing such lyrics at politicians, or worse, dedicating your whole personality and personal agency to the narrative of the day, just makes you look silly.
At least where I’m from, a grilled cheese with bacon is known as a Happy Waitress.Report
“Just let the story breath. Let the investigation play out. Then start parsing out if that investigation was properly conducted and if its conclusions have merit.”
A thousand times this. I hope the investigation and surrounding process is as clean as humanly possible. And I hope something of real merit comes from this, otherwise it will have been a horrible decision that will only add fuel to the Trump fire. My common sense indicator tells me they must really have had something to go on because doing this now on a whim or to embarrass Trump or as a Hail Mary seems really, really foolish. But people have been really really foolish before. So… let’s see what happens.
Is the warrant itself a matter of public record? It would be interesting to see what went into it and what the purposes of it were. Do we know who the judge was that signed off on it? If so, what do we know about them?Report
Two things:
1. As Ken White noted, a rubicon was crossed. Executing a federal search warrant on a former President is a Really Big Deal. As he put it, the unlikely of Trump being charged is now plausible.
2. Trump had these documents for over a year, and it took a federal warrant to pry them out of his hands. I feel it’s fairly safe to believe these aren’t Melania’s West Wing redecoration plans. Which, of course, leads to the question as to why he still had these documents in the first place and why he wasn’t keen on turning them over to the National Archives.Report
Worth noting that when investigators were there in June, Trumps’ lawyers showed them documents preserved in a basement, but not properly. The reporting on this warrant service never mentions entering a basement. An obvious conclusion is that the DoJ became aware of documents being moved and/or being lied to about the extent of documents being held.Report
There are basements in Florida homes?Report
if you build up above grade and then spend a LOT of money on water proofing yes, there are.Report
The basement thing remains a source of incredulity to me (Mar-a-Lago is directly on the Intracoastal Waterway and is less than 100 yards from the Atlantic Ocean), but okay, I’ll run with it. There’s a basement. Which I presume they have the Mother Of All Sump Pumps in, in addition to whatever other waterproofing got put in by the original owners.
The feds may have needed to seize documents before they got destroyed in hurricane season flooding.Report
“Florida Man ‘accidentally’ destroys state secrets, Natty Light keg in ‘basement’ flood.”Report
Plus a top DOJ official almost certainly approvedReport
The search warrant was signed off by a Trump appointed Federal District Judge.Report
Not for nothing but a fair number of the judges he appointed have handed him or people in his orbit legal defeats.Report
Kash Patel, a trump official, directly said he saw trump take docs and admit they were not declassified properly. He said it was just a paperwork mistake which is sketchy at best as an explanation.Report
Sigh. We’re talking about a demented old man who doesn’t get involved in details. He will have given a vague order phrased as a desire and some minion may have to be thrown under the bus.
The media is over promising and will under deliver, just like always.
And we will have created the president that former Presidents can be criminally investigated for whatever the current President thinks is connivant.Report
Your assumption that the warrant is baseless is based on…what, exactly?Report
Based on the last 6 years I would say the smart money is that, whatever the basis, it is either so minor or convoluted that the media and chattering class reaction will prove unjustified, and way overblown. I sincerely hope I am wrong about that, and would prefer nothing more than whatever Trump’s future ambitions are being crushed by his own criminal idiocy. But we have also been watching Charlie Brown trying to kick this football for a long time now and I don’t know why anyone would predict a different result, at least absent an arrest or charges being filed.Report
Do you think he’s actually innocent of all he has been accused of, or are you just acknowledging that our system of justice is unwilling to hold powerful people to account?Report
What’s the warrant for? Give me one piece of actual data and I’ll opine.
I’m 100% sure that DJT has broken laws and the spirit of thousands of other laws.
We have no idea what this warrant is for. One is arrested for a thing not a vibe.Report
Right.
No one has any idea of what the warrant was looking for, or whether they found it.
But he has a long history of corruption and fraud. ANd at least one federal judge was persuaded that there is reasonable cause to believe a crime was committed.
Which is why its so odd to see people dismissing it preemptively.
It seems of a piece with what I’ve called the “peasant mentality” where people in repressive regimes become so beaten down and inured to government corruption they just greet each new tale with a helpless shrug of indifference.Report
See Michael Cain at bottom.
Could be Something…Anything… or Nothing… at the moment we’re in that eternally joyful position of Charlie Brown running towards the ball.Report
We are dismissing it because Lucy took the ball away from Charlie less than 50 times and the media has gone after Trump way more than that.
At the end of the day, Charlie never kicked the ball and Trump remains out of prison.Report
true. Sadly.Report
You realize that when you use the metaphor “Lucy with the Football” you’re saying “Once again the legal system allows powerful people to break the law with impunity”?
Contrast this, with the widespread outrage over that video of a guy shoplifting in San Francisco with impunity.
One set of expectations for the peasants, another for the powerful.Report
I think evidentiary requirements and burdens of proof are a feature of our system, not a bug. If I were to be given omnipotent powers of perception, and trained those powers on Trump, I would be shocked if I discovered that he is not guilty of at least some of the things he has been accused of, not to mention quite a few things he hasn’t been. But as far as it goes in the real world, I do not see any benefit to continuing to whiff, or over promise and under deliver. If the evidence is there, then go convict him (seriously, I beg you), but if it’s not stop playing these games, because it hurts more than it helps.Report
Maybe he’ll plead the fifth!
Then we can talk about how innocent people have nothing to fear from the truth!Report
We at least know that the FBI has managed to convince a judge that a _crime hypothetically exists_, because that’s a requirement for a search warrant: It has to have some stated prosecutable crime that the search warrant could produce evidence for.
It is very hard to see how this crime could be done by anyone else _but_ Trump.
Ergo, the government at minimum has a hypothetical crime that they think Trump committed and they intended to prosecute him for it if they find it.Report
“Based on the last 6 years I would say the smart money is that, whatever the basis, it is either so minor or convoluted that the media and chattering class reaction will prove unjustified, and way overblown. I sincerely hope I am wrong about that”
The first part is my fear: that the ambitions of this action outpace the ability to execute the action, which will ultimately play into Trump and his supporters’ hands.
I share your hope that that does not come to fruition.
My very naive perspective is that this time does feel different primarily because of who seems to be pursuing him. In previous episodes of “THIS TIME WE REALLY GOT HIM!” the efforts often seemed more focused on the getter than the gotten. This include moments like Maddow’s tax return “reveal” which was a ratings grab and little more and both impeachments, which quickly became overly politicized and not actually focused on an analysis of potential wrong doing.
In this situation, where the major players (Wray, Garland, the Judge) seem to have much more to lose from things blowing up on them than they have to gain from grandstanding, I have to think there is more fire behind the smoke.
But, I’ve been wrong before. I really hope I’m not wrong here.Report
Don’t you think its weird how people treat Trump differently than say, Jeffrey Epstein?
Like, are people going around saying “Welp, the Florida Attorney General gave him a light sentence, so I guess all those lurid stories were just a big nothingburger after all!”
No of course not. Everyone right here on this blog just goes around believing that the Epstein stories are true, without really knowing anything.
I mean, categorizing accusations of corruption against Trump as “smoke” seems bizarre.Report
Your opinions on Trump are a…
Wait for it…
CONSPIRACY THEORY.
And therefore I don’t have to talk about it anymore.
(smirks)Report
Not always, but that’s the way to bet.Report
Seems like a weird take, considering that Ghislaine Maxwell was convicted of sex trafficking underaged girls _for_ Epstein.
I mean, he might not technically have gotten a trial, but the allegations were indeed proven in court.
I mean, I agree with you, but Epstein is exactly the wrong example.Report
Who on this blog waited for her conviction before believing the stories were true?
What’s also a striking difference is that virtually no one anywhere is saying Trump is factually innocent, wrongfully accused.
And likewise, no one was asserting Epsteins innocence either.
But can you imagine someone dismissing it all as a nothingburger, a petty paperwork mixup (He probably misread the birthrate on her ID, it’s nothing really, a simple mistake and once again Lucy pulls the football.)
I guess that’s what really galls me, is the peasant passivity of knowing Trump is massively corrupt, watching the judicial system fail again and again, but reacting with learned helplessness.Report
I think the journalistic exposes with actual women telling their stories, pictures, and, well, the previous conviction had a hand in it.Report
Remember when #metoo was ascendant and they went after Trump staffers for giving Epstein a sweetheart deal back in the oughts?
Remember when Acosta said that he was told to back off because Epstein “belonged to intelligence”? Crazy.Report
Right… the baseline was “how did this guy admit to procuring child prostitution and solicitation thereof” and only get a 18-mos with work release.
Seemed sketchy… and heck, turns out it was kinda sketchy.Report
Accused of what?
Far as I can tell, what’s on the table at the moment is nothing. We don’t know the accusation, we don’t know that it’s serious, we don’t know that it’s against Trump.
I doubt we’d need a judge’s order to recover a paper with nuclear codes on it, but if that’s it then we’re in “mistake/incompetence” territory.
It was annoying when HRC did it too.Report
you do remember Trey Gowdy writing reports on his way out saying he could find nothing criminal to refer to the DoJ? And Trump’s State Department IG saying the same thing?
Oh, and when did she serve as President again, and refuse to conceded an election she lost, and incite a mob to attack the Capitol and then take classified document to Florida?
Secretary Clinton’s transgressions would have gotten me fired. Trump’s would have gotten me prosecuted. There’s a big difference there.Report
You just moved the goal posts to “criminal”, i.e. “provable in a court of law”.
Let me just repost what I was replying to: I guess that’s what really galls me, is the peasant passivity of knowing Trump is massively corrupt, watching the judicial system fail again and again, but reacting with learned helplessness.
“Corrupt” as in, “has her own personal charity which accepts contributions from entities that are clearly trying to win favor from her, contributions that dried up the moment she lost power”.
HRC was openly corrupt and not provably criminal. She openly sold pardons and we couldn’t do anything because we couldn’t prove it in court.
Trump is openly unethical and doesn’t care about his crimes provided they don’t rise past the point where he does more than pay fines. He clearly views them as a cost of doing business.
Now we also have him encouraging people to overthrow the election. However it’s not clear to me whether he crossed pre-existing lines that we arrest former presidents for as opposed to just outlawing what he did.
Now on top of that the entire Trump empire is a massive FU to all sorts of self dealing and other forms of corruption but America let him grandfather that in so whatever.Report
What does that mean, “America let him grandfather that in”?
Doesn’t that just mean, “He’s corrupt but a lot of Americans don’t care”?Report
“Grandfathered”, as in the relationship and/or activity existed long before we had to make decisions about him.
America elected him knowing that he had business interests that were trivially usable for invisible corruption.
Everyone who voted had hear about The Trump Empire, and Trump is so linked to TTE that it was impossible to separate them more than he did (i.e. putting his kids in charge).
Similarly, the Emoluments clause in the Constitution was ignored (or maybe followed) because Congress had to give him a pass on TTE.
So if a politician from another country visits a Trump hotel, he gets a pass. If China approves TTE buying great land to build a hotel, he gets a pass. If the prices for that land are artificially low we have no way to tell.
This is FAR pass other countries giving the children of politicians fluff jobs… but TTE can claim (correctly) that they were trying to buy that land in China long before Trump ran for President.
TTE had an economic reality that predates the politics of this.Report
Which brings me right back to my initial comment to you-
First, you, like everyone else, know nothing about this case. So why the presumption of innocence?
And second, isn’t this the opposite of his history?
Everything he has ever been accused of, has later turned out to be corroborated with further testimony or facts.
So “based on history” the logical conclusion is that whatever he is accused of, he is probably guilty.Report
Epstein plead guilty, Chip.
This is one of the things that shouldn’t be in dispute.Report
I haven’t followed this thread or the story, but I had to choke on the question, “why the presumption of innocence?”. I can’t tell what’s being debated here.Report
Ignoring the entire Russia-gate thing which was the bulk of the reporting for the first several years and the root of which was from HRC.
Presumption of innocence of what?
The media is on fire (again), which makes it a day that ends in a “y”.
Why do I think the media being on fire isn’t a sign that he’s about to be arrested? For the same reason that I think Lucy isn’t going to let the football be kicked.
It is possible to think both that he’s not innocent and that whatever is going on won’t result in him being arrested, much less serving time.Report
It is possible to think both that he’s not innocent and that whatever is going on won’t result in him being arrested, much less serving time.
And I might add, may well result in the peasants celebrating the cleverness of his corruption and rewarding him with unchecked power.
Which is the scandal.Report
“Whatever”?
We don’t know if he’s accused of anything.
If it’s him, we don’t know if it’s serious.
If it’s him and serious, we don’t know if it’s provable.
If it’s him, and serious, and provable, we don’t know if it’s something justice would bother for normal people.
If it’s him, and serious, and provable, and doesn’t involve lowering the bar because it’s Trump, then all we need to worry about is it looking like a witch hunt and getting him re-elected.Report
I’m fairly confident Trump is guilty of various crimes. And not in the way that everyone commits 3 felonies a day or whatever. But like actual crimes that the vast majority of people never come close to committing.
But there is what I think he is guilty of and what can be proven.
And for people like Trump — rich, powerful, and (recently) protected officially and tacitly by the office of the President — it tends to be harder to prove them guilty in a court of law. It’s wrong that that is the case but it is also pretty evidently true.
So, lots of folks will go to jail based on smoke. Hell, some will go to jail just because they’re in the general vicinity of warmth. But, like it or not, folks like Trump need to be shown spraying gasoline on the fire itself. And given his ability to weaponize his critics and enemies into advantages for himself, I hope to god that the search of his home was well-considered and is close to the final piece of a puzzle that shows obvious and undeniable guilt.Report
Interesting take. Thank you.Report
InMD beat me to the Charlie Brown + Lucy + football example.Report
Does anyone ever do anything else with a Rubicon except ‘cross it’?Report
Didn’t they name an SUV the Rubicon? You could drive that, although a dangerous precedent was set with the name for sure.Report
‘Picnic by’Report
Make out near, swim in, row boats, snooze by, so many things to do near the Rubicon.Report
You try to assemble it back into order. No wait, that’s a Rubik’s cube.Report
Heh, looks like all of us ‘literal guys’ showed up to help.
The real issue is that so few things are really Rubicon moments, like, maybe just crossing the Rubicon was a Rubicon moment. Everything else? Crossing the Po – we go back and forth all the time.Report
“You could stop in Rome to take pictures first.” – Mark ClarkReport
Interesting bit of trivia: there’s a river today called the Rubicon but it’s all but certain this was not the river that Caesar crossed. No one is quite certain where that river was exactly.
This region produces some of the stinkiest (and tastiest) cheese in Italy. When in northeastern Italy, definitely seek out Sogliano al Rubicone, and get some pecorino finished in the special pit!Report
My favorite conspiracy theory: It’s because we got Alex Jones’s texts.Report
Nice, that’s what was in the Safe. Maybe we’ll find the video’s recovered from Epstein’s island too.Report
Apparently, the judge who signed off on the warrants was Epstein’s lawyer back in 2008 or something.
Hey. It’s a small industry. All the electricians in town know each other too, probably.Report
Starting to think that becoming a judge is all about who you know and not the straight meritocracy we’ve been told…Report
I recall being candidly instructed on this point by one of my more colorful lawprawfs. Something to the effect of ‘unless you happen to know somebody it’s nothing you’ll ever have to worry about.’Report
Who, exactly, has told you it’s a “straight meritocracy”? I’ve never been told that and I just celebrated my law school class’s 40th reunion.
Of course you need connections, and some qualities other than being well-qualified, that make it useful for the appointer (or the voters) to choose you.
I have myself wanted to be a judge, and I think I would have been good at it (I’m too old to be considered now.), but being just another well-qualified straight white guy with no influential friends like Senators, Governors, or party leadership, means I’m basically fungible among the potential qualified candidates, so nobody gains by naming me. I’m too realistic to resent this, and am sincerely happy for people who beat me out of certain jobs. (I razz one in particular all the time.)
None of that means that most judges aren’t meritorious appointees. But the process has never been “straight meritocracy,” and only fools or liars say it is.Report
Pretty sure he was joking.Report
The joke was also in the safe.Report
When you’re only “pretty sure” something is a joke, it’s not much of a joke.Report
I understand exactly how you feel, CJColucci; I too think I’d have been a good judge, well-qualified, lawful, and fair. And like you I don’t resent any of the people who got put in line ahead of me.Report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ed0UgcXZCh8
“I would much prefer to be a judge than a coal miner because of the absence of falling coal.”Report
New favorite conspiracy theory:
This came days after Trump’s golf course hosted the Saudi-backed LIV Golf event, which Trump himself was present for.
Hm…Report
The reaction too Mar A Largo does demonstrate one of the Rights strongest powers, unity. Immediately after the search became public knowledge, the American Right rallied around Trump even though he is one of the biggest criminals to hold the Presidency. Meanwhile, Biden or any other Democratic President fails to implement the ideal policy in this or that area, no matter what the actual politics of the situation are, and this or that faction on the Left says that they are talking their toys home.Report
Very true. Its how the Right has been so successful at the long ball game they have played.Report
Besides the funding issue, one reason you aren’t going to have a liberal equivalent of the Federalist Society is that there will always be a tremendous fight on what issues to prioritize.Report
The downside of permanent revolution.Report
“the president can declare just about anything he wants to be unclassified”
The President can. An ex-President can not.Report
Knowing Trump, I bet money he did a Micheal Scott and just drew himself up tall, and in a loud voice, bellowed “I…Declare. .. These..CLASSIFIED!”Report
I think the concept here is that he “declassified” them January 19, 2020, just by ordering them taken away from the WH and sent to Mar-a-Lago.
Like Cheney “declassified” the identity of Valerie Plame just by telling Robert Novak. No additional paperwork needed. The action IS the declassification.
Which, of course, means to those documents should now be accesible by the public. To the extent that Trump wanted them hidden, well, they are no longer classified and can be published anywhere. Hopefully they are, and they at least embarrass him. That’s what I’d do (and what Bush did in the Plame case)
Or, they were not declassified, and therefore taking them away from the WH is a criminal act.
Or, they are both classified and declassified at the same time. Not a crime to take them away, but not to be seen by anyone.
Yeah, that last option must be itReport
they are both classified and declassified at the same time. Not a crime to take them away, but not to be seen by anyone.
Yeah, that’s the best kind of safe, Schrodingers Safe.Report
Okay. Assuming that there is not a established pattern of bad action on the part of these agencies, this is a tacit admission that bad stuff has been found:
Report
Pre-denials: the Pee Tapes are real.Report
A Trump appointed judge also ordered that Trump turn over his taxes to Congress.Report
If this is true:
HOLY CRAP.
Report
No, it doesn’t.
Regardless of origin, it exists because it is a valuable tool for the enforcement of authoritarianism.
At any point in its existence any number of judges could have struck it down, or any number of legislatures could have legislated it out of existence, but the Punisher skull caucus would have killed them at the ballot box.Report
I agree that it’s a valuable weapon in the hands of the state.
If it turns out that even its origin is ill-founded, then that’s one of those things that I think is better off publicized rather than waved away with our shoulders shrugging.
But I’m one of those “abolish QI” folks.Report
After sleeping on it, I think I’ll just go with Hanlon’s razor. Incompetent help packing at the White House mixed something very sensitive — nuclear codes? list of deep moles in Moscow or Beijing? — in with innocent stuff and shipped it to Florida. Someone at Mar-A-Lago recently stumbled onto it, put it in the safe, and notified either the Archivist or the FBI. A judge agreed on the urgency of securing the document(s) and signed the search warrant to get the papers out of danger. Trump himself had no idea it was even there.Report
Michael Cain serving up mushroom casserole hot-takes… fills your belly but no-one likes it.Report
It will be worth seeing how these same people react to Trump being deposed today by the New York AG as part of her investigation.Report
Report
Though I put basically no stock in Cuomo, the meat of his argument is correct.Report
Trump has the warrant and the inventory of what was taken. If he thought they could undermine the soundness politically he’d use them in a heartbeat.Report
Agreed. But IF nothing more comes of this, it will ultimately be a positive for Trump. Big IF. But a reality to consider all the same.Report
Positive…in whose mind?
Yours?
I mean, if it turns out that this one time, he is falsely accused, will you find yourself saying, “well, maybe he’s fit for office anyway!”?
It just sounds like Pundit Theatre Criticism where everything is viewed through the lens of who wins the exchange.
Like, we’re not supposed to remember his corrupt dealings while President, we’re supposed to forget the fraudulent university scam, the long history of lying and cheating.
No, this one instance of being falsely accused will redeem his reputation.
Not mine, of course, and not yours obviously, but to Those People *sweeps hand grandly across a vast sea of imaginary people, in whose name I speak.*Report
Trump will shout far and wide that the search was an attempt by Biden to silence him and his base will eat it up.
Trump haters will be dispirited.
It will help him electorally. Do you argue otherwise?Report
As the Super Number One Trump Hater, I can say no, I absolutely will not be dispirited.
I thought he was corrupt and a threat to democracy yesterday, and this new accusation, even if false doesn’t change that one bit.
“Dispirited” is an especially strange word to use.
Do think this makes me happy, to think that a former President has committed yet another crime, made yet one more threat to our republic?
Even if he were perpwalked and flogged in the public square, I would still be alarmed that we came so close to losing our democracy, and I would continue to be appalled that so many of my fellow citizens are willing to destroy it.Report
The problem isn’t so much the credibility of Trump as it is the credibility of the people who oppose him. A world where everyone can be portrayed as just as cynical and corrupt as him is the kind of world he wants, and that serves his purposes best.
Which doesn’t mean don’t go after him, it just means if you’re going to do it, for God’s sake, have the goods to succeed. This guy is living rent free in too many peoples’ heads and has been for too long. Which again, is what he wants.Report
There is no “credibilty problem” because Trumps lifelong pattern of corruption and contempt for rule of law isn’t an accusation, its documented history.Report
That’s certainly an interesting way to look at it, but this is kind of what I mean about living in peoples’ heads rent free. He is not the stick against which everything else is measured.
Repeated failure to deliver creates credibility problems independently of what is promised, whether it’s a hot pizza 30 minutes from when it was ordered or Trump in a jail cell.Report
Like, you can only consider Trump to be corrupt if they can prove it in a court of law?
You don’t make an independent evaluation of his character?Report
You can, and it’s an assessment I generally agree with. I just also think people with the authority to do something about it have to be careful with how they wield that power and calculate for success. Failure is not without consequences, especially if it creates a perception of corruption or just plain old incompetence.
And look, if they manage to get him I’ll be right there with you cheering the outcome. But what’s most important to me is that people other than Trump are in charge of those authorities. If the price of keeping him out of power is his freedom it’s one I’m willing to pay. It’s also better than the worst outcome where they fail to get him and the failure feeds his cult of personality, which in turn helps propel him right back into office.Report
There’s this weird detachment to the way you describe the Trumpists.
The use of the passive voice- a perception is created, failure feeds a cult of personality…
People aren’t making choices or decisions, things are just happening, and inevitably.
Once again, imagine using this logic elsewhere-
Epstein/ Cosby/Weinstein escaped the most serious charges, so I admire him so much more now! His popularity soars, because a perception of incompetence of his accusers has been created. He’s practically a rock star!
This…didn’t happen, right? The fact that these guys escaped the noose time and again didn’t feed any cult of personality, a perception of incompetence was created. Instead, their reputations grew darker and darker with each revelation.
Its true that Trump’s fans react to each charge with increased fervor. But this isn’t inevitable, and it isn’t due to any passive creation of perception. And it certainly isn’t within the power of the FBI to make it happen or not.
This is cult behavior, choices people make to dig in and circle the wagons against a perceived enemy.
In other words, the outside world can’t control the behavior of the cult members. That’s why it is called a cult.
Ignoring the criminality of the cult leader doesn’t make the members reasonable.Report
I pointed out HRC both because she’s a great example of BSDI for open corruption and also I expected someone to defend her.
Trump is now worse because of the whole refusal to accept an election. That doesn’t change that for his first election he ran as the less corrupt candidate.
If the GOP front runner becomes Pence, and he’s somehow running against HRC, my expectation is all this concern about corruption and people getting away with it would magically go away as unimportant.
As long as concern over this issue is limited to using it as a club against the GOP, nothing useful will happen because no one (including you) cares about it.Report
I will simply respond that many people view things differently than you and thus will respond to this differently. You are fully entitled to that perspective but I hope you know it is not universal, even among those who despise Trump.
And the group I left out were folks in the middle. I’m not the biggest fan of Jaybird’s “three groups” theory or whatever but this would definitely filter out through that in different ways based on what comes next.Report
It’s a tool. Sure, pick it up when you need it but you don’t need to carry it with you! Leave it on the bench when you don’t need it!Report
There’s a lot of sockpuppetry going on here.
Everyone agrees he is corrupt. No one will stick their neck out to say they think he’s innocent.
But I keep getting told that “people” will change their opinion of Trump if the charges can’t be proven in a court of law.
Do these “people” exist? Can someone produce one where we can talk to them and hear them speak for themselves?
Or are these “people” just like the lady with the dog in the microwave?Report
Trump doesn’t win by making himself look good. He wins by making everyone look bad. Person after person climbs into the Trump slime pit without realizing that they have more to lose than he does.
For example, Biden trying to have his political enemies arrested would be more than a little alarming.
It might even be more alarming that Trump himself since he didn’t attempt that as President, i.e. he shut down his “lock her up” chant the moment he won.Report
Mr. Trump took the Fifth and declined to answer questions. If this was the civil case, not necessarily good tactics.Report
It was the civil case.Report
Trump being deposed today by the New York AG as part of her investigation… for Real Estate Fraud.
“James’ office has said that it uncovered “significant evidence” that the Trump Organization fraudulently valued multiple assets and misrepresented them to mislead financial institutions.
Which is cool… I’m fairly certain that all large financial deals in NYC are a form of organized fraud… and I’d be thrilled if Trump was convicted for Real Estate fraud… and then others and others until high-finance fraud was exposed? reduced? wiped-out?
Is there supposed to be a synergistic reaction to the FBI raid at his home? Are they related? That would be genuinely interesting. In possibly good, bad or ugly ways.Report
Well Trump has said this is a witch hunt and he then pleaded the 5th – which he has previously said innocent people don’t do.
But more to the point – the FBI did its job. the NY AG is doing its job. One of those got a lot of wild accusations from commenters on the right – up to and including DEFUND THE FBI. I’m just waiting to see the same thing for him being made to sit for a deposition.Report
Everyone in Shawshank is innocent.
Yeah, I’m sure there are lots of nutters on the right saying dumb things… which is why it’s probably best for all of us to keep the things happening in Mar-a-Lago and the things happening in NYC in their proper swim-lanes so we can evaluate when one thing goes in one direction and the other in another.
I mean, in totally unrelated news, I’d like to see every member of Congress submit to a forensic audit of their finances every three years and for 9-yrs after they leave office. I have suspicions of financial shenanigans.Report
This is a good idea.
But then immediately tosses the ball to the citizens with the question of “OK, now what are you going to do about it?”
Because Rick Scott was convicted of defrauding the government of millions, and the citizens of Florida elected him Governor, and then Senator.Report
Of course, the time honored answer is re-elect them. The blue-sky dream of reform is that as Congress reforms itself, it also controls whom it seats. So as long as there’s ‘trust’ in the audit system applied uniformly regardless of party… then it’s an internal discipline matter.
Unfortunately my magic wand seems to have run out of juice sometime around when Cubs won the world series (priorities after all) – best I can tell, anyway.
Still, failing that, I’d be ok with the audits and results being public – there’s a chance that Senator X, sponsored by Big Industry Y would simply become a thing; but even that might be better (incrementally). Let’s strip away the plausible deniability and see what happens in the next iteration.
Edit to add: Obvs. baseline illegal actions such as bribe taking and insider trading and other pay-go should simply be prosecuted…Report
“Unfortunately my magic wand seems to have run out of juice sometime around when Cubs won the world series…”
I’ll say!Report
Link? Wiki doesn’t mention this.Report
Google “Rick Scott Medicare fraud”Report
This sounds more like Marchmaine’s Other Great Idea (TM)… that whole no Equity for Exec Compensation (all cash, as much as you want to give them) plus repriced Equity opting in all labor at 30% valuation.
These are mis-aligned business incentive problems, not exactly mis-aligned political problems.
Ironically, Scott could make a Republican case for why Medicare is a poorly run program that is easily gamed/abused and not allocating precious funds correctly… he ought to know! Did you know that aspirin is often billed at hundreds of dollars in our medical system? I know, right? All we had to do was bump on a few diagnostic codes and request some un-needed treatments and boom! that visit became profitable. Sure, we had to pay $1.8B in penalties, but even with all that, our merger created a company that now has $55B in annual revenues and partnering with Google for next gen Patient Information! How’s that for shareholder value?
Even better… the successor company HCA:
“In July 2005, U.S. Senator Bill Frist sold all of his HCA shares, which were held in a blind trust, two weeks before disappointing earnings sent the stock on a 9-point plunge. At the time, Frist was considering a run for president and said that he had sold his shares to avoid the appearance of a conflict of interest.[62] When the company disclosed that other executives had also sold their shares during that same time, shareholders alleged that the company had made false claims about its profits to drive up the price, which then fell when the company reported disappointing financial results. Eleven of HCA’s senior officers were sued for accounting fraud and insider trading.[63] HCA settled the lawsuit in August 2007, agreeing to pay $20 million to the shareholders but admitting no wrongdoing, and no charges were brought.”
Blind trust, dumb luck.. no wrong doing, no charges.Report
He wasn’t convicted, but the company he led was fined heavily. And as part of that he did sign off on public facing products that actually recorded the fraud, as CEO’s do.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2014/mar/03/florida-democratic-party/rick-scott-rick-scott-oversaw-largest-medicare-fra/Report
I read a great little essay the other day. Here’s the opener:
All you have to do is apply this to powerful people too.
For the record: I’m pretty sure that Trump is guilty. Throw the book at him. Just, you know, be air-tight about it. There is no benefit to not being air-tight.Report
To be filed under “Lessons Learned; Impeachment 1 & 2.”Report
How did those work out for you?Report
We’ll never know.Report
Guys, guys, guys. Newsweek reports:
Report
So it could easily be a case of low level agents not liking Trump, or incompetency, or Trump having done something really trivial.
Gentlemen, that is the sound of Charlie realizing that Lucy took the football away.Report
Well according to the Attorney General today, he was aware of the warrant and the raid. Sounds like a case of a burrowed in DoJ official trying to sandbag the press.Report
According to the news:
1) Garland wasn’t involved until after the fact. This implies the WH also wasn’t involved until afterwards.
2) The FBI didn’t think it was going to be a big deal so they didn’t bother with lesser ways to get the documents, like issuing a subpoena for them.
I’m pretty sure that Trump, out of habit, doesn’t do anything for law enforcement without a subpoena.
3) The documents are nuclear secrets, i.e. not related to Jan 6th.
4) It’s implied this was never about putting Trump in prison.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/philboas/2022/08/11/fbi-trump-raid-massive-blunder-newsweek-interview/10298735002/Report
As we now know, Garland signed off on the warrant- and presumably the raid. We also know that Trump was subpoenaed for these and other documents in June and failed to deliver them.
And yes they appear to pertain to nuclear secrets, which seems to rise to the level of something he was never entitled to as an ex president.
As to putting him in jail – in this instance he and I would be subject to the same laws. I’d be jailed if tried and convicted. Not sure why you think he wouldn’t be. That aside the law is clear that if he’s tried and convicted he cannot legally run for any office again. Will that happen before the 2024 election? Hard to say. But being a candidate won’t shield him from this prosecution.Report
If it’s as clear cut as all that then I encourage it.
The concerning part is we’ve seen this dozens of times before and it has always turned out that it’s not as clear as all that. The media, and people leaking to them, are two layers of chances where people lie and exaggerate.
Even by Trump standards the idea of him running off with nuclear secrets seems like a bad-writer plotline.
As corrupt as Trump is, my expectation is some of what we think we know is wrong. Having said that I very much like the idea of him off in jail somewhere while Pence looks all Presidential.Report
Forget it Jake, it’s Newsweektown.Report
Notice how when we saw the video of Uvalde, everyone here, like without exception, was aghast and outraged.
So very, very, outraged! How could this happen?! Surely there must be some sort of accountability, a reckoning, some sort of justice meted out to these cops who broke their sworn oath to protect and serve!
But why? If we choose to ignore corruption at the highest levels, if there is impunity for those at the top, why wouldn’t there be impunity and lack of accountability all the way down?
This is why I compare Trump to Epstein and Uvalde. People who wink and smirk at Trump suddenly feign shock and outrage when that same pattern is repeated elsewhere.Report
Does it change your opinion of the people who have long been saying “we need to change things!”?
Does it change your opinion of the people who were saying back “no, everything is fine!”?Report
In order of increasingly illegality:
The Uvalde police showcased gov incompetence. This is legal and expected (but hopefully rare).
HRC went to the edge of the enforceable law (just over the edge of the letter of the law).
Trump, as a business practice, goes over that line to min/max profit. He treats lawsuits for misbehavior as a cost of doing business. Mostly he says outrageous things to get people spun up.
Epstein did things that everyone gets arrested for. If he hadn’t died he’d still be in jail.
The Uvalde shooter did things everyone gets shot over. If he hadn’t died he’d be in jail.
I would group Trump and HRC together but all the others are different, unrelated problems. If you want to change something to fix any of these I’m all ears.Report
It appears the Attorney General is quite confident in the DoJ’s case as he has now submitted a motion to the court to unseal the warrant and it’s attached property inventory.Report