Thursday Throughput: Why Masks Are Coming Back, In 1030 Words

A masked man walks his dog in front of the New York Stock Exchange. Photo by Anthony Quintano, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

At the beginning of the pandemic, there were articles that reflected back on the 1918 flu pandemic and specifically on the resistance to masks that reached impressive levels of hysteria and worsened the pandemic. At the time, I was of two minds, one thinking we wouldn’t descend to those depths and the other certain we would.

It took a year, but we’ve finally gotten there.

Not only do we have people resisting masking in the wake of the Delta Variant, we have governors threatening to withhold funds from school systems that implement mandates¹ The logic with schools seems to be that we did not have a breakout last year in schools. Never mind that the reason there wasn’t a breakout was because we took precautions. Never mind that Delta is far more infectious than wild COVID-19 and is specifically breaking out in populations of unvaccinated children. Never mind that Texas, Louisiana and Florida are already seeing strained hospital systems, including unprecedented numbers of children in the ICU. No, masks are evil authoritarianism. We all read in the history books how the Nazis started with pandemic control.

“But, Mike!” I can hear the cry, “Masks don’t work! This is an aerosol born disease!”. Wrong. The majority of studies clearly support the use of masks to control the pandemic. The analogy the anti-maskers often make is that wearing a mask is like using a chain-link fence to keep out mosquitos. That analogy might work…if the fence was made of sticky flypaper. And mosquitos couldn’t fly on their own. Masks can lower aerosol spread by breaking up the air flows that propel aerosol particles. Their effectiveness is probably lower with Delta. But it’s not zero.

What about vaccinations? Why should people mask up when they have vaccinations? That’s like asking why you should bother with cornerbacks when your defensive line is so good. The vaccines we have are amazing — 90% effective against the original strain and 60% effective against a strain that didn’t exist when they were made. They dramatically cut the risk of hospitalization and death. But they are not perfect. Let’s say a mask only reduces your chance of infection by 50%. Then using a mask and a vaccine cuts your chance of infection from 40% to 20%. It cuts the risk of serious illness and death to close to nil. Maybe masks aren’t 50% effective; maybe they’re 10%. That still means thousands to tens of thousands fewer cases and far less strain on our system.² Jacob Sullum tries to make a good faith argument against mandates but, in the end, is reduced to hand-wavy arguments about the supposed negative effects of masks.

Moreover, there are people who can’t get vaccinated. Children, for example, can not be vaccinated. And while their risk of death is low, it is not zero. Nor is the risk of serious complications with potential lifetimes consequences. I never thought I’d have to explain to Republicans the necessity of enduring a mild inconvenience for the benefit of society. But here we are.

In the end, I expect soaring caseloads will convince most people to mask up just as they are now persuading many holdouts to get vaccinated (the odd Florida Governor with Presidential aspirations aside). But this will come only after many needless illnesses, many needless deaths and a giant economic cost. The fires burning in Florida, Texas and Louisiana will spread. And we will pay in both blood and treasure.

One of the ironies of our society is that we have become so used to safety and long life that we’ve become suspicious of the things that got us there. Vaccines have ended the childhood diseases that used to slaughter and maim children by the stadium-load, but we’re scared of them causing autism.³ Our water is so clean you can drink from a random tap without fear and yet we’re afraid of “chemicals” in it and buy bottled water by the cargo ship load.

Disease and pandemics used to be the norm. And, contra the historical revisionists, we often imposed restrictions to control them. My parents can remember polio epidemics and how pools and summer activities were shut down. Mary Mallon — better known as Typhoid Mary — was literally imprisoned because she refused to believe she was infecting people with typhus. Closed businesses, closed schools, central quarantine — these were all regular features of life until relatively recently. This is the first time in a century we’ve had to do anything remotely like that and…people have forgotten. So now even the mildest control methods — masks — are seen as some kind of strange totalitarian imposition.

I understand a lot of people are tired of the pandemic. I am too. But keep in mind that our forebears put up with far worse and for far longer when faced with disease, depression or war. Wearing a face covering is hardly on that scale.

Maybe I’m naive, but I expected better of politicians. After all, they’re supposed to be able to do the things that are necessary but unpopular — that whole “we’re a republic, not a democracy” thing. But the Republican Party — and let’s not mince words, it’s the Republican Party that’s driving most of this — has let their nihilism finally reach the point where they will oppose basic public health measures just because “liberals” want them. A decade ago, the Republicans cynically thought that playing footsie with the birthers and other crazies would get them lots of votes at no cost. All it got them was the disaster that was Donald Trump. This year, they cynically thought that the dazzling efficacy of the vaccine would let them play footsie with the COVID denialists.

In the meantime, I will once again refer you to Andrew’s post on masking. Surviving COVID-19 is no picnic. You do not want this disease. You do not want those you love to get this disease. Vaccinate. Mask up. Do things outdoors when possible. Do your bit for king and country. Because there are too many people out there who won’t.

1. . Remember when Republicans favored local control of schools? Good times.
2. With Delta, simple cloth masks may no longer cut it. Surgical masks or N-95’s are preferable, especially in crowded conditions.
3. Which they don’t.