Philip Klein: Trump has clearest path, but here’s how he can still lose – Washington Examiner
Trump has led polls in Ohio and Florida. If Trump beats Rubio and and Kasich there, not only does he win the state’s 165 delegates, but he likely knocks both candidates out of the race, leaving the race one between him and Cruz as the race moves to states less fertile for the Texan.
It’s also a strategy merely to deny Trump a majority of delegates. He’s still poised to go into the convention with more delegates and states won than any other candidate. If he were denied the nomination, the convention would be chaos, as he’d stir up his passionate supporters. It would have the look of the party elites overruling millions of voters, poisoning the well. And Trump would almost definitely run as an independent – even if it meant he’d have to run as a write-in candidate due to ballot access issues.
On the other hand, by denying him the nomination, Republicans would be taking a stand against Trumpism. And given the currently unquantifiable number of people promising to defect if Trump is the nominee – a list that already includes a sitting U.S. Senator – it seems a third party may be inevitable. So the only real question may be whether that manifests itself in conservatives heading for the exits to avoid nominee Trump. Or whether it comes after party regulars block Trump from hijacking the Republican Party.
From: Delegate math: Trump has clearest path, but here’s how he can still lose | Washington Examiner
And given the currently unquantifiable number of people promising to defect if Trump is the nominee
And if he’s elected, they’ll move out of the country!Report
Please to note for those who are uneducated about such things:
It is relatively hard to immigrate to Canada… unless you already own a business there.Report
If they’re going to defect, they’ll do their “Crazy Ivan” to the starboard at the bottom half of the hour.Report
You have not since 1976 had a convention wherein there was any uncertainty about the outcome when the convocation was offered (and there wasn’t much in 1976). You haven’t had a hung convention requiring multiple ballots since 1952. The selection process in 1952 was a different regime entirely than what we have today and even in 1976 there were some residual features of that regime. Kasich and Carson have been passably stubborn about remaining in and neither Cruz nor Rubio seem to be able to garner much of an advantage over each other. Trump may effectively wrap this up in two weeks.Report
It would have the look of the party elites overruling millions of voters, poisoning the well.
It would have that look because that’s exactly what it would be.
On the other hand, by denying him the nomination, Republicans would be taking a stand against Trumpism
Yes, a stand taken by party elites to overrule millions of voters, poisoning the well.
{{If only there were someone to blame for this existential impasse. Thanks, Obama!}}Report
There’s literally no way to win for the party if Trump is even within spitting distance of the nomination. Any loss, even if through perfectly legit floor maneuvering that occurred because Trump never managed an outright majority (say, Trump hits with 45% of the delegates and the remaining 65% who backed other candidates consolidated on the last non-Trump) will infuriate Trump voters. As long as he holds the plurality of votes, rejecting him as the nominee will screw the party.
Trump voters are, among other things, generally angry because they feel they’ve been screwed from their due (by the party, by elites, by life, whatever). It’ll fit perfectly into their worldview.
If he wins the nomination, or gets it with a plurality, then you’ve got…Trump at the top of the ticket. The guy hobnobbing with the KKK, who has turned the dial up to 11 on anti-minority sentiment and has the crossover appeal of a case of herpes.
Frankly, blaming Trump on Obama/liberals/the left is about all you can do. It’s literally the one response without huge blow-back from somewhere critical.Report
Yes, tho I disagree with the characterization that Trump is “hobnobbing with the KKK”. Part of his whole shtick (and I don’t think it’s an act) is that he shouldn’t have to publicly denounce a Duke endorsement, especially when the underlying logic (PC-driven) is that such a failure constitutes, by logic!, an implicit endorsement of the KKK.
So regardless of whether or not he’s hobnobbing with the KKK (if he actually is is a different matter, seems to me), his reluctance to DENOUNCE Duke’s endorsement was motivated by a rejection of the underlying logic compelling the denunciation.
He may have over-reached there. He ended up denouncing, of course…Report
While America is a heck of a lot more racist than we often like to believe, the default American view of race does include “KKK” on one side and “Decent freaking human beings” on the other.
KKK members are a sort of hardcore racism that, if it didn’t exist, would have to be invented just so that people can look at the old racism meter stick and assure themselves “Okay, maybe I’m uncomfortable around [x] or say [y] sometimes privately, but it’s not racism. The KKK is racism”.
Any sort of fun “I denounce the logic of denouncing” nuance is entirely lost, because honestly — the point of the KKK is to isolate the really crazy, undeniable, nutcase racists so that everyone else can say “I’m not with these guys. Those guys are racists”.
Playing word games with the KKK is not the way to go. For anyone interested in even a sizable minority appeal.
(I realize the KKK is a voluntary organization of people with some unique and surreal points of view on race, race relations, and the a love of fire and funky white robes with strange hats. However, since they conveniently made themselves, the rest of American pretty much uses them as a “Thing I can say I’m not as bad as and want nothing to do with” group).Report
KKK is old, and more or less persecuted.
I’d rather we talk about the groups of people who are significantly more virulent, likely to hurt me and mine (or thee and thine, I’m not picky), and crazy to boot.Report
Any sort of fun “I denounce the logic of denouncing” nuance is entirely lost
I think this is an important point because it gets to one of the most common reasons people can’t understand Trumpism, seems to me. Not only is it NOT lost, but in my view (and others too, I should add) it’s actually the main driver of his appeal to those who support him. I won’t belabor it any further since I made my case upthread.Report
The guy hobnobbing with the KKK,
He didn’t.
who has turned the dial up to 11 on anti-minority sentiment
He hasn’t.
and has the crossover appeal of a case of herpes.
He polls adequately against Hellary, a bit worse against Sanders. Oh, did you catch it that Hellary’s personal IT tech has been given immunity from prosecution?Report