To win back the House, given the current distribution of seats, Wasserman calculates that even if Dems hold all their seats and win a number of true swing districts, they’d still need to pick up as many as another two-dozen GOP held seats with a PVI of up to +3 Republican. As Wasserman sees it, there simply might not be enough voters sympathetic to the Dem agenda to flip all these seats in the near term.
“For Democrats to win the House by even a single seat, they’d have to win all Democratic leaning districts, and all districts up to +3 Republican,” Wasserman tells me. “There aren’t enough disengaged young voters who are Bernie fans to make up the Democratic deficits in these districts. For Bernie to usher in a revolution that would reclaim some of these districts, you’d need to assume there are a lot of hard-core Bernie supporters who were disaffected in 2008 and 2012.” As it is, Cook Political Report currently sees only a dozen GOP-held seats as being true toss ups.
From: Can Bernie Sanders’s ‘revolution’ break the GOP? – The Washington Post
