Fishes, Ponds, Governors, Senators
West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is considering running for his old job as governor:
“Senator Manchin loved being governor of West Virginia and has made no secret of his frustration with the partisan gridlock and dysfunction of Washington,” Manchin spokesman Jonathan Kott told the Gazette last April. “Senator Manchin is leaving all his options open for 2016 and will continue to look for the best way to bring common sense to Washington.”
The following month, in May 2014, Manchin told the AP he was keeping “all options open.”
I have two minds on the subject.
A part of me doesn’t understand why politicians would ever trade a governorship for the senate. Politicians are, by their nature, ambitious. If you’re a governor, you’re the Big Fish. You are the chief executive of one of the fifty states of the most powerful nation on Earth. Why would you give that up to be a freshman senator, where you have but one of a hundred votes. The best reasons I can think of are:
- You come from a small and comparatively inconsequential state. Like, say, West Virginia. You may be the most important person next to the president for the West Virginia Gazette, but you’re rarely going to get on Meet the Press as a governor. Of course, a lot of senators never get on Meet The Press either, but your odds are better.
- You can, ultimately, be more powerful as a senator than you can as a governor. It’s unlikely that you will, but you can. It’s a bit of a moving target as the larger the state you are from, the more difficult it is to get more power as a senator. But there’s not much doubt that Tom Daschle (D-SD) or Harry Reid (D-NV) became as senators what they never would have become as governors. The same is likely true of any recent Senate Majority Leader, as they have come from smaller states (the largest being Tennessee). That may be a product of the senate’s small state advantage, or may be the product of ambitious people from small states focusing on the senate instead of state politics, or both.
- Being in the senate can be easier. Say you are not all that ambitious (for a politician). You want to have influence, and you want to make your mark, but you don’t want to actually be responsible for much. The Senate is the perfect place for you! Now, senators can throw themselves into the job, like John McCain, but you don’t really have to. You go to some meetings, you make some speeches, and you vote on bills. The pension is nice. You might get some stuff named after you (even if you are an unremarkable senator). When you leave, you can make a lot of money as a lobbyist. Which brings me to…
- Income potential. You make a lot of connections in Washington that you wouldn’t make in your state’s capital. You get to know people and other people will want to pay you lots and lots of money to introduce them to the people you used to know.
- You want out of your stupid backwood state and want to live in DC. This is presumably more of a draw if you’re from South Dakota than California, but some people – and politicians in particular – like to live in important places. Washington DC is one of the most important places on earth.
- Term limits, where applicable.
- You’re from a small state but you want to be president. This one is actually pretty dubious. If you’re from a small state, it’s exceedingly unlikely that you come from a small state. The only two presidents in recent history to come from small states are a charismatic governor and a very important general. A couple small or middling state senators have gotten party nominations, but they lost. If you want to be president, it’s historically been better to be a governor. Though between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, maybe that’s changing.
Personally, I find reason three to be the most compelling. Other than term limits, of course. But that’s the mentality for why I would make a crappy politician.
There may be a calendar thing as well as the peculiarities of WV politics going on with Manchin, too.
A West Virginia governor candidate is not going to be targeted with outside money the way a West Virginia Senate candidate is, because the resource extraction industry already has enough influence on the state level, and other national Republican interests are either already represented or need not apply (due to the party registration differential Dem over GOP that still persists).
Getting elected on a Dem ticket for any job pretty much anywhere is easier in a presidential election year (when the next WV govs race is) than it is in a mid-term election (when the next Class 1 Senate election is, and when Manchin would be up for re-election)
Manchin could and should probably win re-election to the Senate easy enough, but winning the Governorship again is almost certainly a far easier contest for him to win.
Based on when Manchin resigned his Governorship to take his Senate seat, I believe he wouldn’t have to give up his Senate seat until after he was elected governor, allowing current governor Tomblin to name a Dem replacement that would serve out the rest of Manchin’s Senate term. (it’s very confusing because Manchin is the one who appointed Byrd’s replacement, then ran for the seat himself, after the special election was rescheduled) But if that’s the case, it means the Dems wouldn’t have to fight for another Senate seat in Presidential election year (but would probably mean that seat would be written off after Hillary’s first Congress)Report
IIRC Manchin wanted to fight cap and trade. It was the cap and trade bill that he used for target practice in his campaign commercial, right? Couldn’t do that very well in WV, gotta do it in DC. Bonus: reset term limits counter to run for a second term (maybe, depending on how the WV term limits law is written). I realize the idea that a politician might want to do a specific thing rather than self-aggrandize is odd, but statistically, it’s going to happen from time to time.Report
Yeah, Warren’s certainly got her hobbyhorse. So does Coburn, though his is a bit broader.Report
Or consider the case of Harry Reid. His signature accomplishment for the people of Nevada has been temporarily* blocking the opening of the Yucca Mountain spent nuclear fuel repository. It may not be what he set out to do when he ran for the Senate, but it’s not something that he could accomplish as governor (Nevada governors have tried, a lot). To Burt’s point, there are federal policies that have larger impacts on some states than others, but governors don’t get much if any say on them even if their state is paying a big price.
* I expect the Republicans to attempt to force the issue this year. George Will has forcing the opening on his list of five-six things the Republicans should do first. The nuclear power industry’s wish list includes quadrupling the capacity of Yucca Mountain from 70,000 tons to 280,000 tons because (a) they’re already holding more than 70,000 tons of spent fuels in on-site storage (dry casks and cooling pools) and (b) they regard the DOE’s original plan of a large repository in the East for fuel from the large number of eastern reactors and a small repository in the West for fuel from the small number of western reactors to be unrevivably dead.Report
The sphere of influence is different for a senator. As opposed to being the big dog in the lives of one states people, you get to be at least a medium dog in all of the peoples lives.
Also, just as an aside, if you truly want to be a good president, you really need to be both. One need both strong executive experience (leading), and strong legislative experience (deal making.) The only substitute I could see for this would be a governor from an opposing party in a one party state. In other words, a dem governor in a red state, or vise versa.Report
If you’re from a small state, it’s exceedingly unlikely that you come from a small state.
That’s way too Zen for me.Report
If it’s too zen for you, then it’s likely just zen enough.Report
It’s actually more of an if/zen statement.Report
There is a classic bonehead political move from 1958 California politics. William Knowland was a popular Republican Senator from California with Presidential ambitions. Goodwin Knight was the popular Republican governor of California at the time. Both were up for reelection. Knowland felt that he had a better shot at being the GOP nominee for President in 1960 if he was a Governor and not a Senator, so he convinced Goodwin Knight to switch places with him. Knowland would run for Governor and Knight would run for the Senate.
Both lost their elections and the next President of the United States was Senator Kennedy of course.
As to your thoughts, I think you lay out the calculus pretty well. I think being a Senator would have fewer headaches and stresses than being a Governor personally. I also think the Senate is for people who really like behind the scenes work that is done in committees.Report
It was really dumb for Knowland to think that the GOP would nominate him rather than Nixon to be their Presidential candidate for the 1960 election. The general rule is that if a sitting VP wants the Presidential nomination when it becomes available, the VP gets it.Report
That wasn’t the rule at the time.Report
In fact, it hadn’t happened since .. I want to say Martin van Buren in 1836.Report
In fact, it hadn’t happened since .. I want to say Martin van Buren in 1836.”
I think that’s correct, unless you want to count John C. Breckinridge, who was Buchanan’s VP 1857-61, and was nominated for president by a splinter group of the Democratic Party in 1860.
Martin van Buren is also the answer to the trivia question, “Who was the last Secretary of State to go on to be President?”Report
You seem to be right.Report
I don’t know the laws in every state, but I suspect that term limits — #6 — play a pretty big part in this. One of my senators, Lamar Alexander, is barred by term limits from serving as governor of Tennessee again, iirc.
Related to #3 and #4, I would mention job security; I believe governors usually have a tougher fight for reelection than most senators, most of the time. And senators only have to run every six years, as opposed to four years (or two years in some states) for gov.*
Governors also get blamed for the general conditions in their states in a way that senators do not.
* Barry Burden argued in this paper in 2002 that this can hurt senators when they then try to run for president; some senators have not had to run close and tough races in a while, while governors are almost always recently bloodied. YMMV.Report
This analysis doesn’t treat Joe Manchin as a human, just as a politician. People I know make career decisions based on a lot of variables. Sure, income and promotion potential matter, but so does hunting season, and whether there are pro sports teams.Report