Democracy Symposium: Going Marginal
Note: This post is part of our League Symposium on Democracy. You can read the introductory post for the Symposium here. To see a list of all posts in the Symposium so far, click here.
Shorter Me: There are various ways in which we could de-democratise which do not involve us getting rid of democracy completely at one shot and which are likely to produce more just social orders.
Jason Brennan, below, argues that of all our freedoms, the freedom to make a choice which has negligible impact on who ends up taking power is relatively unimportant.
As Brennan argues, when people talk about the desirability of constitutional democracy or liberal democracy, the ‘constitutional’ or ‘liberal’ part of the term is doing most if not all of the work. To prove the point Brennan says that constitutions enshrine a set of rights and liberties which are deemed to be so important that nobody is allowed to vote on them. The right to do what you want with your own money consistent with respecting the other freedoms in the constitution is an important component of securing one’s freedom to pursue one’s own conception of the good. Having the vote on the other hand, does very little for me. With or without my vote, the result of the election is unlikely to change one bit. Taking away my right to vote therefore has a negligible effect on whether I am able to pursue my conception of the good consistent with others similarly pursuing theirs. Therefore, the right to own private property in productive assets as well as the freedom to be free from onerous regulation in the use of said property is more important than the right to vote. And if economic freedom results in increased inequality which increases the political voice of the rich disproportionately, this is not a bad enough thing to count against economic freedom. After all, it was not like political voice was doing you any good anyway.
But it’s not just in the area of fundamental liberties which we find it better to restrict people’s right to vote. Just as we find the thought of a federal reserve which is beholden to partisan politics distasteful and want a more independent fed, there are other policy areas which would benefit from independence from democratic control. For example, fellow gentleman Burt argues rather convincingly that Greece is a probable, if not inevitable outcome of democratic politics. The people will tend very greatly to vote for more benefits and lower taxes with which to pay for those benefits. Removing taxing and budgeting power from democratic control and giving said control to an independent fed or similar body*. Similarly, as I have argued on this site, on a wide range of issues, since experts are more likely to arrive at correct answers than lay persons and since public discourse is particularly prone to error, technocratic bodies are likely to be better at producing policy than democratic bodies. As I’ve said before:
Public deliberation is less likely than academic deliberation (especially in the sciences and probably to a large degree in the social sciences as well) to reach the truth about a matter. More than that, in situations where the true theory is counter-intuitive for the discussed reasons, public deliberation is more likely than not to lead to the wrong conclusion
For wide range of policy areas, whatever a supermajority of experts can agree to is likely to be better than whatever a majority or even a supermajority of lay persons will agree to. In what areas is policy likely to improve when we separate it from democratic decision-making? Economic policy, design and implementation of social safety nets, foreign trade and healthcare are just some of the areas that come to mind. Maybe foreign policy is an exception, but just because democracies have not invaded other democracies doesn’t mean that democracies are not war like**. And I stand by my criticisms of American Foreign policy.
As I’ve written before:
If we want better policy, we should either limit public deliberation, limit the effect public deliberation has on policy or find a way to internalise the benefits of coming to the right decision.
I’m definitely not a fan of limiting public deliberation because I think freedom of speech is very important and should be protected even if it results in people believing in stupid things. Limiting the effect of deliberation on public policy is one way to go. And we need not proceed in an all or nothing way. We can carve out various areas of public policy making and delegate them either to independent technocratic bodies or enshrine the relevant rights in the constitution. We can thus, at the margins, pare down the set of policies which democratic bodies have control over without necessarily completely getting rid of democracy. Internalising the benefits of coming to the right decision is another option, but seems the hardest to do. Futuarchy seems like a good place to start with this, but I am a bit sceptical of the ability to significantly internalise such benefits and costs of the policy we prefer.
Let us suppose we successfully separate from democratic bodies, the decision-making powers that said bodies are poor at making. Over time, we successfully enshrine all the relevant rights and liberties in the constitution. We develop, over time, independent decision-making bodies that are either composed of experts, or make use of prediction markets to arrive at good policy in that domain. What domains of public policy are left after we have done all of this? Is there any other role at all for democratically elected bodies? And is what is left so terribly important that delegating it to some other independent technocratic body or constitution or for that matter, the market would be a mistake? Can such a form of government where so little is left for democratic bodies to handle rightfully be called democratic?
Honestly, I really don’t know how far we can go in terms of such technocratisation and constitutionalisation. But it is certainly the case that we can afford to delegate some of the existing powers to either a technocratic body or to limit them via a constitution. To borrow Jaybird’s paradigm, de-democratisation as a vector or maybe marginal anti-democracy. There may very well be a sweet spot with just the right amount of democracy, but we have not reached it yet, and we in all probability have far too much of it. And maybe, as we de-democratise, we discover better ways to do things, or maybe even over time evolve the social institutions that would allow us to finally do away with democracy altogether. But, and this is a major concession on my part, we should just start gradually and not radically revamp the system.
*I’m deliberately being agnostic on whether it is better or worse for the body which has control over monetary policy to also have control over fiscal policy. I’m inclined to think that it is better, but I am open to arguments as to why we should separate fiscal and monetary powers.
**Arguing that the fact that global conversion to democracy would likely put a halt to war is a good reason to go democratic is kind of like arguing that global conversion to Catholicism would put a halt to inter-religious strife is a good reason to become a Catholic. I mean, they came up with the bloody Spanish Inquisition didn’t they? Yet there really wasn’t much in the way of systematic violence by Catholics against other Catholics. Even the Inquisition was ostensibly aimed at those who were insufficiently Catholic and not at the “Real Catholics”.***
***I’m not wedded to this argument. I just wanted an excuse to play the Monty Python video and say: No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!
What domains of public policy are left after we have done all of this? Is there any other role at all for democratically elected bodies? And is what is left so terribly important that delegating it to some other independent technocratic body or constitution or for that matter, the market would be a mistake? Can such a form of government where so little is left for democratic bodies to handle rightfully be called democratic?
Well, taking separability to its logical conclusion. There’s technocratic policy as in, “the most efficient ways to achieve some goals are X, Y, and Z”, and politics as in “our goals should should be A, B, and C”. What’s the easiest way to legitimize a claim that some aggregate goals, which may necessarily be non-Pareto-improving goals, are the deserving ones?Report
Hmm. Murali works in Singapore.
A couple of local political scientists have commented – I think Dr Cherian George was one of them, but I can’t really be sure – that the state ideology in Singapore has a notion that the only legitimate and respectable state goal is maximizing material economic wealth. It’s not really explicit, it’s just that anyone who forwards other goals from the left gets mocked as impractical, and from the right as endangering the fragile ethnic peace.
This lends itself to drily efficient technocracy quite well, and (let’s be fair) the incumbent regime has done a pretty good job of efficient technocratic pursuit of economic growth. So the ideology is one which validates the regime ex post. It’s not quite the explicit acquiescence-for-rapid-growth of the PRC, rather some very successful entrenchment of the values of the incumbent regime amongst its people; prescribed cultural identities are accepted.
But of course, many other polities have other notions of goals, particularly when identity politics is legitimized as fundamental to the advancement of human liberty instead of ferociously condemned as destabilizing. Then the politicization of distribution between identities cannot be avoided.Report
This is one of the reasons I’m intrigued by Futuarchy. The values government is to pursue are decided democratically, but the method of achieving those values is left up to prediction markets.Report
That really just squirrels the hard bit of technocratic judgment into how the security used as a proxy for future outcomes is designed.
The neoclassical instinct moves in favour of prediction markets, but the game-theoretic instinct tells me that designing auctions to work well is really, really hard, and designing auctions where the outcome could have a massive impact on asset values elsewhere and thus permits investors to complicate their incentives in a way that drags in all the hell that is general equilibrium in Arrow securities is… well, not something I’d assume to be possible without proof.Report
Prediction markets don’t use auctions, they work via exchanges. As far as manipulating them goes, all the research I’ve seen indicates they’re effectively impossible to manipulate, and are in any event much harder to influence than elections.
I don’t think futuarchy is ready for prime time yet, but I think it merits more investigation.Report
In the economic sense of an auction, of which securities exchanges are generally a subset.
I reiterate the point that the difficulty of policy design is not solved, just hidden. Generic futures markets have the nice element that we assume that participants don’t really have an opinion about (say) what the future value of pork should be, we assume that they just want to maximize their portfolio of pork and non-pork assets, whatever those may be. A decision market starts blurring the boundaries here. A decision market whose price outcome itself influences the values of the securities reflecting each decision raises all the !!!MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA!!! alarms.Report
No, I’m really not seeing the problem here. Decision market securities converge on best estimates of probabilities very reliably. Plus, unlike other securities, the value of decision market securities is constrained – they can’t rise above an implicit probability of 1.Report
How do those properties help?
Here is an easy decision market: bet on the weather tomorrow. There are lots of methods of collecting data out there, and nobody has any way of influencing the weather that we know of. In other words: the people with relevant information face liquidity constraints in the same ballpark as other people with relevant information, and furthermore the outcomes being bet on are exogenous to the values of the decision-market securities.
That’s not true once you actually make policies depend on that decision market outcome. Then you have the possibility of (1) agents who are prepared to make a loss in order to influence a decision in some way that will make them a profit elsewhere (and Real Life has liquidity constraints, so such agents can operate) (2) multiple equilibria, where the relevant probabilities are endogenous to the policy being made, which messes up arbitrageurs who are supposed to fight (1) to begin with.
You can’t just offer Arrow securities on the values of some social-welfare-function of possible policies and then pick the policy with the highest SWF as assigned by the decision market; policies do not exist in a vacuum and investors adjusting their portfolio affect the SWF in other ways. e.g., if I DM’ed a choice of more rail lines or more bus lines, an investor isn’t just going to buy Arrow securities, they’re also going to buy carriage companies or bus factories, which affects the real benefits of rail vs. bus, and this makes the value of the security feed back into the probabilities over the outcomes.
And the technocratic problem of designing the SWF over outcomes is, yes, buried, not eliminated… Arrow’s theorem prevents this from being democratically decidable in any obvious sense.Report
Ah I see, thank you for your patience.
As it understand it point 1 has been tested experimentally and it turns out that it doesn’t work. Attempts to manipulate the market inevitably fail – undermined by arbitrage. Point 2 on the other hand, I could see how that could cause problems. It’s definitely a weakness of futuarchy, but I suspect it is manageable in practice. You would need to make sure the SWF was built on a large number of high level macro variables, and ideally not on the direct outputs of other financial markets. I don’t think it’s a fatal problem, but it’s definitely a weak point.Report
You can’t do that, either, for the same reason that an investment market dominated by index funds will produce index funds that do badly. The goal of arbitrage is not for arbitrage’s sake; the goal is to reward individuals who believe they have superior information for revealing this information, and a high-level SWF bundles too many extraneous conditions. You are demanding that these individuals purchase a considerable amount of risk to garner any benefit. They could almost certainly do better just buying ‘index funds’.
And really, liquidity constraints matter for real-life decisions. The decision which democracies make most badly are precisely those with a concentrated group of special interests who monopolize valuable information regarding policy consequences. Unfortunately, the conditions where futures markets perform undeniably well are also the conditions where polling people also does well.Report
War making is definitely the most important thing a state is capable of doing and perhaps the one area where technocratic expertise should be kept to the background as much as possible. The Best and the Brightest aside, there’s certainly plenty of other situations where letting a bureaucracy run itself didn’t really end well when force was involved.Report
“War making is definitely the most important thing a state is capable of doing and perhaps the one area where technocratic expertise should be kept to the background as much as possible”
Though the state has pretty much made war the central focus of its technocratic expertise since Sun Tsu.
(and curiously, the most recent use of military force that the American government has undertaken – Odyssey Dawn – was rather completely divorced from the political process)Report
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? I think you are vastly overrating the effectiveness of non-democratic forms of decision-making. I simply don’t see how prediction markets or panels of experts will be proof against corruption or capture. To take the most obvious example, suppose we follow your advice and create a panel of economists to set fiscal policy (as an aside, how many on this panel? 5? 50? 500?). How will we select these economists? Who even determines who is or is not a credentialed expert in the field? It seems that all this suggestion does is take us from a world in which we send tremendous amounts of time and money influencing elections to a world in which we spend tremendous amounts of time and money trying to influence the selection of the unaccountable experts who will sit in judgment of us. I, for one, don’t look at the modern Supreme Court confirmation process and think “gee, wouldn’t it be great if we made all of our decisions like this?”Report
How about selection of the chairman of the fed? How much heartache goes into that? A large part of the BS that goes into supreme court confirmation is culture wars idiocy.Report
Are you really confident that a board empowered to decide the funding level of Medicare or whether taxes rise or fall would look more like the Fed than the SC? I would suggest that the Fed is a bit of an outlier; organized American politics is strangely uninterested in monetary policy. Put fiscal policy on the docket and that de-politicization evaporates.
Also, pointing to the Fed doesn’t really address the other problem of this idea. How exactly are we credentialing or empowering experts? Who decides who is a member of these bodies and how do we ensure that their decisions are viewed as legitimate and binding?Report
Actually, I was thinking more in terms of a permanent civil service which would tend to regulate itself and choose its own members. They would get bonuses everytime their policy outperformed their targets. So naturally, they would choose people with PHDs in the relevant fieldsReport
Who staffs the agency that measures these targets?
And that’s the easy question. Here comes the hard one: who makes the judgment calls when a conflict-of-interest exists for senior civil servants? e.g., If I own a lot of land, I would object to a land value tax if I thought it would be shown, technocratically, to be a good way to acquiring revenue to do whatever (like cut taxes elsewhere, perhaps). And so it would not be in my interest to hire the best tax economists I can find. Even if better economists would increase my bonus, I would lose my land rent.
And of course, material interest aside, senior civil servants can have prejudices or ideological commitments too – commitments that they might be prepared to sacrifice some income for.Report
All the research on prediction markets I’ve read says that prediction markets are much harder to manipulate then elections – in fact it appears they are effectively impossible to manipulate.Report
But you go ahead and have the election anyway. You don’t go “welp the market says Gore will be the winner, so let’s save ourselves the trouble and appoint Gore as High Technopriest, yay to whoever bet on him!”
See the difference?Report
The proposed model for futuarchy doesn’t work like that. It looks at policies rather than leaders, and it evaluates the outcomes of policies against a democratically-determined social welfare function, not just by predicting what option is most popular.Report
Murali,
Great post as usual. I think I agree, though I still need to follow your links to get more of an idea of how technocratic experts and prediction markets would perform.Report
One immediate concern is that if being defined as an expert has power privilege, then we will no longer have experts. We will have people brokering for power in the guise of experts as revealed in the extremes of environmentalism (both sides) and creationism.
Even the IGM board of economist experts are weighted far to the left of mainstream society. Though I pretty much agree with the consensus on just about everything, so that is a point in your favor.Report
technocratic experts crafted Singapore’s healthcare policy, which is fairly close to your own ideal system.Report