The One Way Democrats Can Revive Their Agenda

President Joe Biden and his senior advisers meet with U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Thursday, October 7, 2021, in Counselor to the President Steve Ricchetti’s West Wing officePhoto by The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

On Sunday, Joe Manchin threw a wrench in the Democratic agenda by refusing to accept the agreed-upon Build Back Better (BBB) plan. Manchin’s stated reasons have been his reasons all along: he believes the bill costs too much and contributes too much to inflation. Manchin did not pledge absolute obstruction to the president’s agenda, however. He rejected the current bill and gave some hints on his thinking by criticizing the temporary nature of its programs. As Jonathan Chait noted on Sunday, “given the baffling lack of any apparent progress in Congress toward trimming down the bill by identifying some programs to eliminate, Manchin may well be helping the process by dropping a bomb. Democrats need to understand that their old policy design is dead so that they can restart the negotiations on Manchin’s terms.”

As always, the internet and much of the news media interpreted Manchin’s announcement in the most pessimistic terms possible. They lambasted Manchin for sabotaging the president and sinking his reelection chances. Liberal senators and representatives criticized the West Virginia senator for his cagey attitude and seeming unwillingness to pass anything. The next day, the negative stories were balanced by reporting to the contrary: that Manchin does not want to sink the Biden administration, that he may be willing to spend some money in a reconciliation program, and that he had talked to Biden until Sunday. But current Democratic hopes for a BBB bill are about as low as they could possibly get.

The problem with BBB is not with liberals or progressives. They have never bucked Nancy Pelosi or party leadership for more than a few weeks, and there is little likelihood that they will start. Rather, the issue is with the warring centrist Democratic wings of the House and Senate. The one way out is to side with the Senate and give Joe Manchin what he wants on the bill, saving the rest of Democrats’ priorities for a time when their majorities are larger and not dependent on red state senators.

The Senate is known for its independence and its austere nature. It was created as the more small-r republican of the two branches of Congress, meant to check the passions of the small-d democratic House. Its members prioritize debate and negotiation. Due to the relatively smaller size of this branch of Congress, each member is better known than the average member of the House. There is a spotlight on members that can push them to take bold, public actions to build their brand or establish their credibility in their home state.

Joe Manchin’s complaints reflect these sensibilities entirely. He is a red state Democrat who is fiercely independent and relishes bucking the party line. Manchin once shot proposed coal regulations in a campaign ad. As Ed Kilgore has noted, he might actually welcome harsh attacks from the president as adding to his centrist bona fides. Manchin has also honed his independent approach both as senator and in some ways as governor of West Virginia. In other words, he has been a leading centrist Democrat since 2005 at the earliest. Kyrstin Sinema, the other most notable BBB holdout, has not been on the national stage for nearly as long and is not as likely to be a lone no vote as Manchin.

What’s more, Manchin’s arguments are sound from a policy perspective. Most liberals do not agree with his focus on inflation or the deficit. But they do agree that BBB should enact a handful of permanent programs and then deal with the rest of the party’s agenda either next year or the next time they are in power. The extension of temporary programs would require active work by Republicans to renew them. There is no evidence that Republicans will do anything to extend one of Joe Biden’s signature achievements. Democrats need a solidly built, permanent program that works well once it is fully enacted and can bolster Democratic arguments about the success of their governing approach.

Democrats should agree with Manchin on substantive policy grounds. They should also not worry about perceived anger or annoyance from House centrists. Many Democrats fear that the tax increases Manchin wants for BBB will scare off conservative House Democrats who represent wealthy districts. But the House is not known for a tradition of bold individuals standing forcefully and famously against the party line. If the Senate is the home of Mr. Smith, Henry Clay, and the filibuster, the House is known for leaders who whipped their parties into line, most notably famed Speakers such as Joseph Gurney Cannon, Sam Rayburn, Tip O’Neill, and Nancy Pelosi herself. The majority in the House has nearly all of its power.

Also, House races can be shaped more by targeted donations than Senate races. The average House race costs about $2 million as of 2018, compared with $15.7 million for the average Senate race. Individual House members are infinitely more vulnerable than a senator. There is a House member who won his position by winning the lottery. Democrats may not have much leeway in the House, but more often than not Democrats fall in line behind Nancy Pelosi. There is little chance that they would do anything different for a crucial BBB vote.

Democrats do not like the idea of being beholden to Joe Manchin. To many of them, he is not the future of the party and does not represent its base. But the question of preference or image should be subordinated to the need to pass legislation that will benefit ordinary Americans. If giving Manchin whatever he wants will aid millions of Americans, Democrats should do it. It may be the only alternative to defeat.