Meanwhile, Back at the Brexit
Our UK friends have seen some developments in the increasingly chaotic Brexit saga over the last few days. Let’s discuss them.
[BX1] Cabinet coup to ditch Theresa May for emergency PM: “Theresa May was at the mercy of a full-blown cabinet coup last night as senior ministers moved to oust the prime minister and replace her with her deputy, David Lidington. In a frantic series of private telephone calls, senior ministers agreed the prime minister must announce she is standing down, warning that she has become a toxic and “erratic” figure whose judgment has “gone haywire”. As up to 1m people marched on the streets of London against Brexit yesterday, May’s fate was being decided elsewhere. The Sunday Times spoke to 11 cabinet ministers who confirmed that they wanted the prime minister to make way for someone else.”
[BX2] Corbyn’s team split over soft Brexit : “Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet is set to clash again over Brexit this week, with supporters of a second referendum concerned that the Labour leadership will opt to facilitate a soft Brexit. With senior Labour figures openly calling for another public vote at the anti-Brexit march in London on Saturday, other influential MPs believe Corbyn’s inner circle is actually warming to a Norway-style Brexit that would see Britain leave the EU, but remain closely aligned to it.”
[BX3] The failing coup against Theresa May could bring down the government: “Because what it shows is the underlying split in the cabinet between those ministers – Gauke, Clark, Rudd, Mundell – who want to stop a no-deal Brexit at any cost, and those who want to prevent either a referendum or a “soft” Brexit “in name only” – Leadsom, Mordaunt, Fox, Grayling – has become irreconcilable. For a brief moment at the end of last week ministers on the more Remain side in particular thought replacing May would paper over this yawning gap on the most important decision this country has faced since we joined the EU in 1973 – but it can’t and won’t.”
[BX4] One telling image: in a Brussels corridor, the EU takes back control of Brexit: “They came from the Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, France. Among them were the bloc’s deputy Brexit negotiator, the chief Europe advisers to Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, the deputy secretary general of the European commission, the ambassadors from Dublin and The Hague. There was, of course, no Brit. After two years of increasingly frustrating Brexit talks with a hopelessly divided government incapable of explaining what – in the realm of the real – it actually even wanted, Europe had had enough. “It’s like dealing with a failed state,” one official confided before the summit.”
[BX5] Brexit march: Million joined Brexit protest, organisers say: “Organisers of the “Put It To The People” campaign say more than a million people joined the march before rallying in front of Parliament. Protesters carrying EU flags and placards called for any Brexit deal be put to another public vote.”
[BX6] Europe cannot remain a ‘prisoner’ to Brexit delays, Macron says: “French President Emmanuel Macron said Friday that Europe must not remain hostage to the ongoing Brexit process as British Prime Minister Theresa May struggles to persuade a deeply divided parliament to back her Brexit deal after the EU granted her more time. “The European project must not remain a prisoner to Brexit,” Macron told reporters on Friday. Macron also called for unity within Europe that the block has had a needed wake-up call on China, saying, “China plays our divisions.”
[BX7] Brexit and the Irish Border: “Twenty years of peace in the aftermath of the Good Friday Agreement cannot mask the continued commitment of the Irish to the ultimate reunification of Ireland, here in America as well as there. There are no good options for the British Parliament as it wrestles with what to do about the open border between the two Irelands after Brexit. Either the border remains open, as majorities in both Irelands want, which would mean that Northern Ireland remains in the European Union as the rest of Britain secedes. Or a hard border is reinstated, threatening economic livelihoods on both sides and potentially reigniting the Troubles.”
[BX8] Can U.K.’s Labour Party Survive Brexit?: “Labour had far exceeded modest expectations in a 2017 snap general election, and Mr. Corbyn had emerged as a surprisingly appealing figure, with young people memorably chanting his name at a music festival. He was seemingly primed to capitalize on the Conservatives’ infighting and missteps over the exit negotiations. Instead, he is now openly at war with his own members of Parliament, nine of whom have defected in the space of two weeks. And the party is bleeding both Remain and Leave voters, while facing serious accusations of institutional anti-Semitism. There is talk of an existential threat.”
When you make international trade policy and foreign relations based on du IOU’s assumptions and outright lies it’s never going to go smoothly.Report
The problem with May resigning is that selecting a next PM goes back to the Tories, and the Tory Brexiters (and the DUP) would not accept anyone that’s not committed to the hardest Brexit. A Boris Johnson or Andrea Leadstrom PM would not hold indicative votes or even MV3. She/he would just do nothing and let April 12 and No Deal happen.
Amber Judd, Phillip Hammond, and other soft Brexit Tories would either have to vote against the Tory candidate, and for a General Election, blowing up the party in the process, or trade the possibility of No Deal for the certainty of No DealReport
BX7
Because the Tories are basically a purely English party, allegedly, in the first negotiating session way back when, the European team asked David Davis “What have you thought about the land border between the UK and the EU”, and the answer was some version of “What land border? We have no land borders with the EU” (*)
(*) Se non è vero, è ben trovatoReport
I’ll be wrong about my prediction that the politicians would find a way to bumble into a no-deal exit on March 29, now that the EU has pushed that date out two weeks. I still don’t think they can put together the conditions to get a long delay agreed to by all the players before the clock runs out.Report
Agreed. Reality is here, Brexiteers have to pay the piper for lying their way to this day, and none of them wants to. Sure, all the Torries standing up and publicly saying “we were wrong, we can’t leave the EU without impacts to the economy and thus we really think we ought to stay” might get them all run out of office, but at least in a generation their willingness to own the mess might serve them well, since Labour is probably no better able to get out of this either.Report
Labour, especially the corbynites have been disappointing in failing to oppose brexit sufficiently. Corbyn, pretty much is a brexiteer who happens to be in charge of a supposedly (or at least once upon a time) remainer party. If Labour got rid of Corbyn, things might look up, but the crazies are in charge now.Report
Agreed, Corbyn is pretty much at the heart of this. If that socialist idiot wasn’t sabotaging the #remain side from even before the referendum then they wouldn’t be in this pickle.Report
Brexit was a illusion of truth, they were never going to go through with it no matter what happened. I’m surprised London hasn’t been burned down yet.Report
Tomorrow Parliament is supposed to spend the day debating various options, then do a sort-of ranked voting that will allow the Speaker to see what the preferences are so he can arrange individual votes next Monday. The government hasn’t actually committed to following Parliament’s choice, if there is one.
As I see it, there are three options that the UK can take unilaterally: May’s deal (if they approve it by Friday), no deal, or rescind their Article 50 notification. The legal default if they all sit on their thumbs is a no-deal Brexit on April 12. Everything other than those three requires the EU27 to hold a special session prior to April 12 and agree to it.
Meanwhile, the online petition (that makes at least cursory checks to verify the person signing is an actual voter) demanding the Article 50 notice be rescinded is closing in on six million signatures. This is far more than the number needed to require the government to respond. That came a bit ago: “This Government will not revoke Article 50.”Report
I realized that I was wondering if there was more immigration or emigration over the past few years.
Welp. Those numbers exist.
I don’t know what the numbers would need to be to argue that people are voting with their feet but I think we’d all agree that if more people were moving to the EU from England than to England from the EU that it’d be an unequivocal “people don’t like the idea of Brexit!”Report
So, skimming, it looks like net migration with the rest of the EU is down but still positive. Most of the effect seems to be due to people from the easternmost countries who joined the EU relatively recently.Report