Plausible... but a little depressing. Neither side will concede on election day (nor should they, probably)... I'm just hoping the process while delayed is at least organized, competent and swift.
The narrative building BS will be overwhelming though. Give us strength to remain properly agnostic through it all.
SOLIDARI... ok, maybe not. But hey, at least my candidate personally thanked me on Twitter. I told my family that it will be cool to see our votes individually tabulated in Virginia as the count goes from 4 votes to 9 votes.
In years past I would assume the Libertarian vote would follow the Liberal Social issues into supporting the Dems if someone like Trump were on the ballot. But, from what I'm reading, I'm not getting that vibe at all. I am not a libertarian expert, but the vibe I'm getting from that faction is that the Left is the bigger threat to liberty. But on the contrarian hand, I'm not sure that we won't see an increase in third party voting. So... my prediction is that we see the same (or nearly the same) levels of third party votes. But if I'm wrong, the break will be mostly for Trump.
Yeah... this is it (I still think the Riots are local vs. National factors, esp compared to Covid).
Part of my unscientific analysis comes from my small Red area and my even smaller parish. Covid is *the* dividing line... about half are wearing masks, but about 80% would be gettable Trump (well, Republican) votes. The fact that half are wearing masks is a real divide.
Sociologically it's interesting... the Mask/No-Mask doesn't break by Theological, Liturgical, or Economic position... seems to be correlated directly to support for Trump (or the Republican Party). It makes me sad that this became part of political wars, but it did.
As a critique from the Horseshoe Right... it isn't lost on me that the best defense of Trump is that he's Jeb! without the magnetic charm. That *ought* to be disqualifying in its own right... at least by Trump's own definition of a successful Trump Presidency.
Yeah, I'll stick with my prediction from the previous thread that Biden will win a significant EC victory.
BUT, I'm epistemically prepared to say to myself, "huh, I guess I really underestimated how the influx of all these "new" voters were going to vote." Which is to say, my read on people who willingly voted for Trump last time remains the same (98% renewal), and my read on how the folks who unwillingly voted for Trump seems to be breaking about how I expected (50% willing / 25% unwilling but yes / 25% staying home or 3rd party)... so a slight net loss for Trump (which would be enough to undo the EC - assuming the trend is more than local). But, I just don't have a read on the influx of "new" voters. I think the bias is that all these voters are people fed-up with Trump (and maybe they are!), but I won't be surprised if the raw vote counts show significant growth for Trump. I'll be surprised if Trump wins a majority, but I won't be surprised if Trump garners 10%-15% more votes than last time and depending on where those votes land... whelp... my hindsight will be 20/20.
* of course, they aren't necessarily "new" voters... its just that when we have 30%-40% who regularly sit out elections, its hard to say what's gonna happen when 10% - 20% decide to show up.
I have an original copy of Crunchy Cons and keep track of Dreher's meanderings and Douthat is at the top of the Punditry game right now.
The problem with being the Pointy-end-of-the-massively-offline-TradCath-Hispano-Uprising is that all of my people only write letters. With fountain pens.
My role as the sacrificial-online-layman is to circulate an illustrated manuscript with the week's goings on. This week's manuscript features a picture of my closest inner circle on a trip to a private island where we could pretend things were normal just for a brief moment in time.
Every time I go to Costco my wife hands me a validation slip that I have to give to a nice person at the door who then puts a smiley face on it. I feel like I've earned some secret "pusher of the heavy cart" award. The heavier the cart and the longer the validation slip... the bigger the smiley face.
Congrats on the 5k. Whenever I see a number and a 'k' my mind goes back to the Camino and my ankles start to hurt.
Goosing the economy with printed money isn't navigating our way towards a better or more sustainable politico-economic model. It isn't reckoning with Labor Arbitrage; it isn't accounting for productivity gains being allocated poorly; it isn't in any way "boosting the economy" for a period greater than getting Trump elected. This is precisely what I mean by the way his promises and actions actually undermine the people he's proposing to help... at best he's kicking the can down the road (which is his #1 objective in governing) at worst he's setting us up for a harder fall having done none of the 'difficult' work of trying to address the underlying issues.
I agree that the Left doesn't really have good ideas here either... but just because the Left has bad ideas doesn't mean Trump's are good for not being their bad ideas. They are just bad or short-sighted policies unique to his own self.
With regards Foreign Policy it isn't enough merely to avoid some conflicts; we still need to build a Military and Diplomatic Framework that helps us achieve our goals... like with the Economy, he isn't charting a new path... he's making ad hoc decisions that may be ok for this, but maybe not for that... but there's no particular assurance that the next time he assassinates a general that it won't escalate. He hasn't in any meaningful way curbed the Saudis as a proper client state... he hasn't pulled us out of the atrocities in Yemen. We're getting all of the down-sides of a Russian reboot with none of the upsides. He's not building a better foreign policy because he has none... he's reacting to other actors and that's a merely a short term snapshot in time that will be adequate until its not... like dealing with a Pandemic.
Since you ask, that's what I'm seeing and it strikes me that *I'm* the consistent one...
I can't answer why 83% of Republicans like him... I haven't been a Republican since I was maybe 12. I get not liking the left, but not liking the left doesn't strike me as a reasonable requirement to like Trump. And that's why supporting Trump for negative partisan reasons will not address the Economic issues we're facing, and we're not any closer to a better Foreign Policy. You're not getting what you paid for.
Assuming you mean the quoted sentence? I'd say there's a Post-Trump case revolving around these points and that Trump is the reason we're not making those points.
Man, I've been travelling for work for 20-years and have never had an experience anywhere close to that... ouch.
I appreciate the description of the fish... there's something about perfectly prepared fish that makes me think fish is what we'll eat in heaven. I mean, I love all the other proteins... but every transcendent meal I've had was sea-food based. Or goose liver; but that's the exception that proves the rule. If proteins we like wine, Fish is Burgundy/Pinot Noir... at its best, it's unmatched... but it's rarely at its best; so we settle for Beef/Bordeaux.
"If you’re on the same side as the FBI, the CIA, the NSA, and every major corporation..."
I'd say that'll leave a mark, but I don't know anyone on the left for whom it would anymore. Maybe the Bruenigs. I miss the old Left.
I share a lot of the critiques/observations about the left and their shifting political philosophy(s)... but I still disagree on the prudence of voting for Trump. Two points on that: Trump is neither a bulwark we can depend upon nor a politician advancing a 'better way' if anything he's poisoning what little good he stumbles into and accelerating the things we dislike the most by virtue of his incompetence and inability to build a political movement; second, the path 'out' of the wilderness will come from abandoning Trump and the Left attempting to govern. It's no secret that I think the left is incoherent with regards politics and policy... but this just *isn't* the most important election ever. Biden will likely win and will likely govern poorly (though poorly in an entirely different way than Trump) and the way forward is the breaking of both parties... which Biden will accelerate. Trump is neither shield nor weapon... he's a trap.
Meagre hope, perhaps, but prudence isn't voting for Trump it's for hastening the realignment. I know you have some Libertarian sympathies (if Solidarity is a bridge too far :-) ) I'd say, consider voting Libertarian... we'll revisit in 2022 and 2024.
Yeah... if last cycle we had ~130M votes and this cycle we get ~150M votes... I'm having a hard time guessing if those 20M votes skew significantly in either direction... or just represent 20M more votes.
I can see either story playing out:
*Man the 'burbs were fired up and voted in droves for Joe. That's why he won 345 EC votes.
*Man those forgotten voters came down from the hills for Trump like we never thought would happen. That's why he won 274 EC votes.
Honestly think a lot of you are coding this according to certain expectations and am bookmarking for the side-switching when Biden's narrow PA lead is threatened by ancient rural machinery in PA that is turning out illegible postmarks... and we have to uphold rules over counting all the votes.
After all, how can we be sure that Trump voters hearing about the narrow Trump loss after the polls close didn't just submit their ballots? It's akin to why we don't announce the exit polling until the polls close. Nothing quite so motivating as hearing an outcome you don't like.
The problem is that no matter what we do, there are going to be (a lot) of spoiled/rejected ballots... and the inconsistency is the problem. I can tell you with 100% certainty today, October 28 that we will *not* count all the votes... not agreeing in advance on fair-is-fair (even though each state is different)... that's the potential disaster. And all of you will switch arguments depending on whether you need the counting to stop or go.
I hope the outcome is beyond doubt because there's no consistent method out of doubt here.
"The grasses have co-evolved with grazing animals, and to thrive they need the frequent trimming, plus poop and pee" plus seeds worked into the soil by hooves, etc.
Mob Grazing has exploded over the past decade... the *improvement* to pastures by short, but massive, rotational grazing (aka wild grazing) has been well studied and documented. The counter-intuitive findings all point to more grazing (with ordinary periods of rest) = more forage.
Do you prefer Dumb Technocrats to Smart Populists?
But if we're going with Hobbes, then this reads like comparing the Sword to the Tyrant. I care little about the Sword, only that it is oiled, well balanced and sharp. As for the Tyrant? On that I have notions.
On “Election Day 2020: Open Thread, Breaking News, and Running Discussion”
Harshing my buzz man.
"
Well... assuming my Twitter feed is a neutral observer... it's gonna be a BIG day for Solidarity... like YUGE.
[Is that how Twitter works?]
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: Global Pandemic Edition”
Plausible... but a little depressing. Neither side will concede on election day (nor should they, probably)... I'm just hoping the process while delayed is at least organized, competent and swift.
The narrative building BS will be overwhelming though. Give us strength to remain properly agnostic through it all.
"
Working on my Post Mortem of how I failed to correctly pick the winner...
"I know why Biden lost, but I know not how."
"
SOLIDARI... ok, maybe not. But hey, at least my candidate personally thanked me on Twitter. I told my family that it will be cool to see our votes individually tabulated in Virginia as the count goes from 4 votes to 9 votes.
In years past I would assume the Libertarian vote would follow the Liberal Social issues into supporting the Dems if someone like Trump were on the ballot. But, from what I'm reading, I'm not getting that vibe at all. I am not a libertarian expert, but the vibe I'm getting from that faction is that the Left is the bigger threat to liberty. But on the contrarian hand, I'm not sure that we won't see an increase in third party voting. So... my prediction is that we see the same (or nearly the same) levels of third party votes. But if I'm wrong, the break will be mostly for Trump.
"
Yeah... this is it (I still think the Riots are local vs. National factors, esp compared to Covid).
Part of my unscientific analysis comes from my small Red area and my even smaller parish. Covid is *the* dividing line... about half are wearing masks, but about 80% would be gettable Trump (well, Republican) votes. The fact that half are wearing masks is a real divide.
Sociologically it's interesting... the Mask/No-Mask doesn't break by Theological, Liturgical, or Economic position... seems to be correlated directly to support for Trump (or the Republican Party). It makes me sad that this became part of political wars, but it did.
On “The Case For Trump”
Berlusconi is a good comp.
Berlusconi's schtick crumbled with actual populists (left and right) who came after him.
"
As a critique from the Horseshoe Right... it isn't lost on me that the best defense of Trump is that he's Jeb! without the magnetic charm. That *ought* to be disqualifying in its own right... at least by Trump's own definition of a successful Trump Presidency.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: Global Pandemic Edition”
Yeah, I'll stick with my prediction from the previous thread that Biden will win a significant EC victory.
BUT, I'm epistemically prepared to say to myself, "huh, I guess I really underestimated how the influx of all these "new" voters were going to vote." Which is to say, my read on people who willingly voted for Trump last time remains the same (98% renewal), and my read on how the folks who unwillingly voted for Trump seems to be breaking about how I expected (50% willing / 25% unwilling but yes / 25% staying home or 3rd party)... so a slight net loss for Trump (which would be enough to undo the EC - assuming the trend is more than local). But, I just don't have a read on the influx of "new" voters. I think the bias is that all these voters are people fed-up with Trump (and maybe they are!), but I won't be surprised if the raw vote counts show significant growth for Trump. I'll be surprised if Trump wins a majority, but I won't be surprised if Trump garners 10%-15% more votes than last time and depending on where those votes land... whelp... my hindsight will be 20/20.
* of course, they aren't necessarily "new" voters... its just that when we have 30%-40% who regularly sit out elections, its hard to say what's gonna happen when 10% - 20% decide to show up.
On “The Conservaliberaltarian Case For Abidin’ With Biden”
It wasn't the Ides of March, it was the brunch.
Plausible.
"
Now I'm kinda hoping. This is how you get fascism.
I don't remember reading this in Arendt.
"
"What is a beheading without avocado toast and a mimosa?"
Not sure, but if we're making it a thing I expect the other guys will come up with something equally suitable.
On “The Antifa Case for Voting Trump”
Hey, I said I had an original copy of Crunchy Cons. I'm OG Dreher...before he sold out to big Benedict.
"
I have an original copy of Crunchy Cons and keep track of Dreher's meanderings and Douthat is at the top of the Punditry game right now.
The problem with being the Pointy-end-of-the-massively-offline-TradCath-Hispano-Uprising is that all of my people only write letters. With fountain pens.
My role as the sacrificial-online-layman is to circulate an illustrated manuscript with the week's goings on. This week's manuscript features a picture of my closest inner circle on a trip to a private island where we could pretend things were normal just for a brief moment in time.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Participating In An Event Without Knowing About It”
Every time I go to Costco my wife hands me a validation slip that I have to give to a nice person at the door who then puts a smiley face on it. I feel like I've earned some secret "pusher of the heavy cart" award. The heavier the cart and the longer the validation slip... the bigger the smiley face.
Congrats on the 5k. Whenever I see a number and a 'k' my mind goes back to the Camino and my ankles start to hurt.
On “The Antifa Case for Voting Trump”
Understood. Thanks for at least reading the comment.
"
Goosing the economy with printed money isn't navigating our way towards a better or more sustainable politico-economic model. It isn't reckoning with Labor Arbitrage; it isn't accounting for productivity gains being allocated poorly; it isn't in any way "boosting the economy" for a period greater than getting Trump elected. This is precisely what I mean by the way his promises and actions actually undermine the people he's proposing to help... at best he's kicking the can down the road (which is his #1 objective in governing) at worst he's setting us up for a harder fall having done none of the 'difficult' work of trying to address the underlying issues.
I agree that the Left doesn't really have good ideas here either... but just because the Left has bad ideas doesn't mean Trump's are good for not being their bad ideas. They are just bad or short-sighted policies unique to his own self.
With regards Foreign Policy it isn't enough merely to avoid some conflicts; we still need to build a Military and Diplomatic Framework that helps us achieve our goals... like with the Economy, he isn't charting a new path... he's making ad hoc decisions that may be ok for this, but maybe not for that... but there's no particular assurance that the next time he assassinates a general that it won't escalate. He hasn't in any meaningful way curbed the Saudis as a proper client state... he hasn't pulled us out of the atrocities in Yemen. We're getting all of the down-sides of a Russian reboot with none of the upsides. He's not building a better foreign policy because he has none... he's reacting to other actors and that's a merely a short term snapshot in time that will be adequate until its not... like dealing with a Pandemic.
Since you ask, that's what I'm seeing and it strikes me that *I'm* the consistent one...
I can't answer why 83% of Republicans like him... I haven't been a Republican since I was maybe 12. I get not liking the left, but not liking the left doesn't strike me as a reasonable requirement to like Trump. And that's why supporting Trump for negative partisan reasons will not address the Economic issues we're facing, and we're not any closer to a better Foreign Policy. You're not getting what you paid for.
"
Assuming you mean the quoted sentence? I'd say there's a Post-Trump case revolving around these points and that Trump is the reason we're not making those points.
On “Best Meal Ever Week: Suyapa by the Sea”
Man, I've been travelling for work for 20-years and have never had an experience anywhere close to that... ouch.
I appreciate the description of the fish... there's something about perfectly prepared fish that makes me think fish is what we'll eat in heaven. I mean, I love all the other proteins... but every transcendent meal I've had was sea-food based. Or goose liver; but that's the exception that proves the rule. If proteins we like wine, Fish is Burgundy/Pinot Noir... at its best, it's unmatched... but it's rarely at its best; so we settle for Beef/Bordeaux.
On “The Antifa Case for Voting Trump”
"If you’re on the same side as the FBI, the CIA, the NSA, and every major corporation..."
I'd say that'll leave a mark, but I don't know anyone on the left for whom it would anymore. Maybe the Bruenigs. I miss the old Left.
I share a lot of the critiques/observations about the left and their shifting political philosophy(s)... but I still disagree on the prudence of voting for Trump. Two points on that: Trump is neither a bulwark we can depend upon nor a politician advancing a 'better way' if anything he's poisoning what little good he stumbles into and accelerating the things we dislike the most by virtue of his incompetence and inability to build a political movement; second, the path 'out' of the wilderness will come from abandoning Trump and the Left attempting to govern. It's no secret that I think the left is incoherent with regards politics and policy... but this just *isn't* the most important election ever. Biden will likely win and will likely govern poorly (though poorly in an entirely different way than Trump) and the way forward is the breaking of both parties... which Biden will accelerate. Trump is neither shield nor weapon... he's a trap.
Meagre hope, perhaps, but prudence isn't voting for Trump it's for hastening the realignment. I know you have some Libertarian sympathies (if Solidarity is a bridge too far :-) ) I'd say, consider voting Libertarian... we'll revisit in 2022 and 2024.
On “Wednesday Writs: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, SCOTUS, and Election Law”
Yeah... if last cycle we had ~130M votes and this cycle we get ~150M votes... I'm having a hard time guessing if those 20M votes skew significantly in either direction... or just represent 20M more votes.
I can see either story playing out:
*Man the 'burbs were fired up and voted in droves for Joe. That's why he won 345 EC votes.
*Man those forgotten voters came down from the hills for Trump like we never thought would happen. That's why he won 274 EC votes.
"
Honestly think a lot of you are coding this according to certain expectations and am bookmarking for the side-switching when Biden's narrow PA lead is threatened by ancient rural machinery in PA that is turning out illegible postmarks... and we have to uphold rules over counting all the votes.
After all, how can we be sure that Trump voters hearing about the narrow Trump loss after the polls close didn't just submit their ballots? It's akin to why we don't announce the exit polling until the polls close. Nothing quite so motivating as hearing an outcome you don't like.
The problem is that no matter what we do, there are going to be (a lot) of spoiled/rejected ballots... and the inconsistency is the problem. I can tell you with 100% certainty today, October 28 that we will *not* count all the votes... not agreeing in advance on fair-is-fair (even though each state is different)... that's the potential disaster. And all of you will switch arguments depending on whether you need the counting to stop or go.
I hope the outcome is beyond doubt because there's no consistent method out of doubt here.
"
"The grasses have co-evolved with grazing animals, and to thrive they need the frequent trimming, plus poop and pee" plus seeds worked into the soil by hooves, etc.
Mob Grazing has exploded over the past decade... the *improvement* to pastures by short, but massive, rotational grazing (aka wild grazing) has been well studied and documented. The counter-intuitive findings all point to more grazing (with ordinary periods of rest) = more forage.
On “The Curmudgeon’s Case for Biden”
Do you prefer Dumb Technocrats to Smart Populists?
But if we're going with Hobbes, then this reads like comparing the Sword to the Tyrant. I care little about the Sword, only that it is oiled, well balanced and sharp. As for the Tyrant? On that I have notions.
"
Sure... but even that (People vs. Elite) is one competing - and IMO not the best - definition of what Populism is or might be.
So... that's my jeremiad against the misuse of the term Populism (and Isolationism).
It starts to become a sort of reverse image of some other imagined thing... not an actual thing.