Election Day 2020: Open Thread, Breaking News, and Running Discussion

Andrew Donaldson

Andrew Donaldson

Born and raised in West Virginia, Andrew has since lived and traveled around the world several times over. Though frequently writing about politics out of a sense of duty and love of country, most of the time he would prefer discussions on history, culture, occasionally nerding on aviation, and his amateur foodie tendencies. He can usually be found misspelling/misusing words on Twitter @four4thefire and his writing website Yonder and Home.

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140 Responses

  1. Avatar DensityDuck
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    I was intrigued by the statistics on early voting, which put early votes at two-thirds of the total vote in 2016. Whatever this outcome is, people definitely want it to be decided legitimately, not by some fluke of low turnout.Report

  2. Avatar Saul Degraw
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    says:

    D minus trolling the Donnie II the lesser swiped from neo-nazis on 4chan: https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1323635550297989120?s=20Report

  3. Avatar Philip H
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    One hour from entering the line to leaving the polls in tiny Pass Christian, Mississippi. Probably not a bellweather, but not insignificant either. Turnout will be huge this year.Report

    • Avatar Kazzy in reply to Philip H
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      says:

      My boss reported 18 minutes door-to-door around 7:30 in downtown Manhattan. But early voting (and maybe mail?) voting has been going on here.

      In NJ, we had to vote by mail unless we had certain hardships. But I hear we’ll take weeks to tally results. Probably won’t matter much for POTUS but could for Congress.Report

  4. Avatar Philip H
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    says:

    We need a running tally of drinks and snack laid in to watch results tonight.Report

  5. Avatar George Turner
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    says:

    An important Ben Shapiro election Tweet

    No matter who wins tomorrow, let’s all remember the most important thing: The Last Jedi is a terrible movie.

    He’s got a small war breaking out in the comments, and I know some of the people who are commenting. ^_^Report

  6. Avatar Will Truman
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    says:

    Voted this morning. It was non-eventful. About three people in front of me.

    Last time it was straight up to the booth.

    Cars were clutting Route 67 in Maryland, though, because there wasn’t enough parking at the school. (This is red Maryland, FWIW.)Report

  7. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    Pixelated Boat makes a simple plea:

    Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      Some British banker in Curaçao bet $5 million on a Trump win. It’s thought to perhaps be the largest political bet ever made, that is if you don’t consider an election itself as one giant political bet with trillions at stake.Report

  8. Avatar North
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    Voted early so I don’t have to go vote today. Not gonna be much to talk about vote wise until this evening when the polls start closing. Fl, GA, NC and to a lesser degree AZ and TX… those should be the canary’s.Report

  9. Avatar Marchmaine
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    says:

    Well… assuming my Twitter feed is a neutral observer… it’s gonna be a BIG day for Solidarity… like YUGE.

    [Is that how Twitter works?]Report

  10. Avatar LeeEsq
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    says:

    Thanks to Covid-19, slightly over 100 million people voted in the election already. This is going to be one of the biggest turn out elections in over a century. We are talking Gilded Age levels of voter participation. This gives me some comfort as a Biden voter because big turn outs nearly always help the Democratic Party. I’m still a nervous wreck though.Report

  11. Avatar Jaybird
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    Colorado Springs! The *GOOD* DMV, not the crappy one.

    There was a long line for people dropping off their ballot. There was no line at all for the walk-in physical ballots. There were a handful of people in the voting booths, but they were all socially distanced from each other.

    I didn’t ask “so how’s it been so far today?” like I have all of the other times I’ve voted because I was trying to avoid unnecessary conversations but all of the various election officials were radiating “pleasantly bored” rather than “eye of the hurricane”.

    Two sides to the ballot, a ton of presidential candidates, a handful of senators, a handful of congresspeople, and more judges than you could shake a stick at.

    The ballot initiatives had to do with nicotine, grey wolves, and gambling. Oh, and abortion.

    In and out. 10 minutes, start to finish.Report

  12. Avatar Kazzy
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    says:

    Some NYC private schools have closed for today and tomorrow due to concerns about election-related safety issues. I’m not sure what those concerns are. Unrest in the streets? Trump caravans running busses off the road? I’ve heard whispers of both but don’t know what is actually informing the decision-makers. My girlfriend’s school closed. Mine hasn’t made a decision but said it would make an announcement tonight if for any reason it felt unsafe to open school tomorrow.

    Maybe I’m naive but this seems like a major overreaction and feeds the panic. Anyway, that’s the scuttlebutt in this little corner of the world.Report

  13. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    Biden’s campaign manager:

    Report

  14. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    So I found myself wondering… what’s going on with the 3rd Parties?

    I mean, normally I keep up with that sort of thing but, you know. Pandemics.

    Anyway, I checked and only *ONE* 3rd Party made it onto every ballot. *ONE*. The Libertarians.

    2nd Place goes to the Greens, who made it onto ballots in 30 states.

    3rd Place goes to the Socialism and Liberation Party, who made it onto the ballot in 15.

    The Progressive Party, The Becoming One Nation Party, the Bread and Roses Party, the Approval Voting Party, and both Jerome Segal and Kyle K. Kopitke (hey… wait a minute!) all tied for last place by making onto the ballot in only two states.

    The state with the most people on the ballot is, that’s right: COLORADO!

    Pennsylvania and Alaska are tied for fewest with only 3 candidates on the ballot (the two “real” ones and the Libertarians, for those of you uninterested in logic puzzles).

    As such, I’m guessing a lot of states locked down 3rd Party access quite tightly over the last few years… huh. Nope. It’s always been tough to get on the ballot, I guess. (Libertarians only got onto 48 in 2012… huh, and 2004… made it onto 49 in 2000!)

    I guess 3rd Parties aren’t the monolith I thought they were. Pity.

    Still, it was nice to see 15 names on my ballot earlier today.Report

    • Avatar Marchmaine in reply to Jaybird
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      ASP made it onto 8 official ballots.

      Didn’t make it onto 9 at all. The other 33 are a flavor of write-in. Definitely requires an organization that’s distributed in all 50 states and within those states many require signatures from every county… so have to organize across the entire state as well. It’s a process that requires actual ground troops, not simply an idea and some $$.Report

  15. Avatar Jaybird
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    Remember me saying that I follow two groups of people who are intelligent and not obviously insane and both of them look at the lay of the land and are confident that their guy will win the election.

    Both groups are still talking and, apparently, both full of confidence.

    The presidency is in superposition.

    This is so very weird.Report

    • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      Here’s Adot:

      That’s one half. If an obvious Trump’s Winning tweet shows up, I’ll show that one too.Report

      • Avatar Marchmaine in reply to Jaybird
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        Different feeds then… I haven’t seen any ‘smart’ conservatives calling it for Trump with any confidence… I’ve seen the usual sort of rallying/cheering/bucking-up the faithful types of calls.

        In fact among the ‘smart’ non-Lincoln conservatives Henry Olsen predicts a blood-bath… and he’s an actual data kinda guy.Report

        • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to Marchmaine
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          says:

          Likewise.

          It sounds like yet another example of the extremely online universe, where the opinion of some rando on Twitter has the same weight as an actual analyst.

          I know that Nate Silver has said “Biden Is Favored But Trump Can Still Win” or some variant every single day.

          Which is about all that anyone can say.Report

  16. Avatar George Turner
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    says:

    Biden campaign staffer tweets that he still has “multiple pathways” to 270, which made lots of Democrats very nervous.

    One posted a picture of an armed constable interfering with a polling place in Pennsylvania, telling people masks aren’t required for voting. They were screaming it was “voter suppression”, so I dropped a bit of info about Pennsylvania constables: “The sole duty Constables are required to fulfill by statute is to maintain order at election polls and ensure that no qualified elector is obstructed from voting. Constables are the only peace officers permitted at the polls on election day.”

    However, it’s a sign that Pennsylvania Democrats who’ve never voted before are actually showing up!Report

  17. Avatar Slade the Leveller
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    says:

    I voted in person today, and walked right up to the booth. IL is a foregone conclusion, but count me as +1 for Sleepy Joe.

    The big issue on my ballot was whether the state should have a graduated income tax or not.A no vote for me there.Report

  18. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    From Nate:

    Report

  19. Avatar Marchmaine
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    says:

    Is it over yet?Report

  20. Avatar Kazzy
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    says:

    CNN seems to have called Indiana for Trump. If he was smart, he’s declare a unanimous decision.Report

    • Avatar Marchmaine in reply to Kazzy
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      Invoke the originalist meaning of First Past the Post.Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to Kazzy
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      says:

      FOX called Virginia for Biden with Trump in a crushing lead with <1% of the vote in.

      They might eat that because Republican areas of Virginia are reporting an 80 to 90% voter turnout, which is absurdly high. It may be that the rest of Virginia turned out to punish their black-face wearing governor who banned guns.Report

      • Avatar DavidTC in reply to George Turner
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        says:

        MSNBC seems to have called Vermont for Biden with about 1300 votes in. It says 1%, but that’s rounding up to a large amount.

        Which, I mean, yes, he’s going to win Vermont, but…that’s not really enough votes to ‘call’ anything.Report

        • Avatar George Turner in reply to DavidTC
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          says:

          Yesterday I was playing with a live map, I think at Real Clear Politics or 538, where you could click on the states to flip them to either side – except for states that they considered so blue as to be unclickable, like Oregon, Washington State, etc.Report

      • Avatar Marchmaine in reply to George Turner
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        says:

        PBS Called Warner (VA Senate) with a huge graphic showing Warner behind 45% to Gade 55% and <1% in.

        Probably true, but man, the execution is way off... get your graphics aligned with your call people.Report

  21. Avatar George Turner
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    says:

    BTW, I can’t pay much attention to the election because Critical Drinker and Anna (That Star Wars Girl) are having a long running discussion of Star Trek IV, the Mandalorian, Star Trek Picard, etc. The timing of the election has turned out to be wildly inconvenient.

    Youtube live streamReport

  22. Avatar Marchmaine
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    says:

    Ok, I know it’s *very* early… but I keep saying “huh” a lot. Like about as often as I said “huh” in 2016.Report

  23. Avatar Marchmaine
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    says:

    They let Karl Rove back on Fox on Election night?Report

    • Avatar North in reply to Marchmaine
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      Watching him crapping himself on live air in 2012 probably made me age at least 2 years in reverse in the course of a couple of hours. Why the fish wouldn’t they let him back on the air- it was great TV for Fox. Not so great TV for Turdblossom.Report

    • Avatar DavidTC in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      Is there a reason that Texas isn’t on that page? That….seems poor planning.Report

    • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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      Still too early to say. But we can say Biden isn’t going to get a landslide victory and mark that off the chalkboard.Report

    • Avatar Marchmaine in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      PBS is getting that Hillary Supporter on the convention floor look. Soldiering on, but voices quavering and confidence shaken. Everyone seems pre-occupied and missing marks/talking points. Earpieces must be buzzing.Report

      • Avatar InMD in reply to Marchmaine
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        CNN too. Britt Hume croaked something incomprehensible I took to mean he sees another 2016 coming on Fox.

        I predicted litigation in PA. Still very much on the table for that.Report

        • Avatar North in reply to InMD
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          says:

          Arizona’s importance is mounting now. Ugh, it’s looking more and more likely it’s going to be a drawn out contest.Report

          • Avatar InMD in reply to North
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            says:

            My wife just said, ‘we’re still getting high on our own supply.’ Obviously not over but yet but I think you’re right. This is going to take awhile.Report

            • Avatar North in reply to InMD
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              says:

              Biden is looking quite strong in Az, but yeah.. if he doesn’t get NC then it’ll hinge on PA which is gonna be a miserable drawn out slog. GA supposedly had some mechanical problem that has delayed their counting a lot of mail votes which presumably will be Biden leaning but I’m not hinging any hopes on fishin Georgia.Report

              • Avatar DavidTC in reply to North
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                says:

                Yeah, the counting in Atlanta, and other cities, is always slow. Right now, Fulton, DeKalb, and Cobb, all very Democratic, have huge amounts of outstanding ballots.

                Forsyth, meanwhile, has a lot of Republican ballots outstanding.

                Not actually sure if it’s enough to push it over.

                …okay, what is everyone using to look at this? I’m using NBC, but they refuse to do obvious things like ‘Hide finished counties’ and ‘Show number of outstanding ballots’.Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to Jaybird
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      CNN and Fox retracted their call in Virginia. Trump has a huge lead there. I’ve wavered over whether to include Virginia in my own prediction map, based on the likelihood of a massive turnout from all the rural areas who are pissed off at their current government’s gun ban nonsense.Report

      • Avatar Murali in reply to George Turner
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        says:

        I’m working on the assumption that Trump gets all of Nebraska and Maine

        As of now, if Trump wins Pennsylvania but Biden gets Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan (all of which the numbers don’t look good for him) Trump ties with Biden exactly. Both get 269 votes. In this scenario, Biden just has to win one of the Maine districts to win.

        On the other hand, if Biden loses any of these three (and Pennsylvania), he’s doneReport

  24. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    Report

  25. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    New Jersey just legalized weed!!!Report

  26. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      I looked at the most recent RCP polling data compared to four states where >99% have reported in, namely FL, NC, KY, and TN. Trump beat the RCP polling average by 6.6% in those states. FL was 5 .29% off, KY was 11%, TN was 9.4%, and NC was 0.9%. That said, Kentucky and Tennessee weren’t polled very much.Report

    • Avatar DavidTC in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      That’s, uh, a weirdly misleading graph. Let’s do some math. First, let’s assume that men and women vote in the same amount, which means we can actually take both genders and average them together, for simplicity.

      So Trump lost 1.5 points of the white vote, gained 4 points of the Black vote, and 3 points of the Latino vote, and 4 points of other. Or, we can simply that…Trump lost 1.5 of the white vote, gained ~3.5% of non-white.

      The problem is…those aren’t really equal amounts of the population. White people are 75% of the population. So 1.5% of white people is 1.125% of the population.

      Everyone else is 25% of the population, so that’s 0.875%.

      Except even that’s not really true, because, uh, exit polls only take into account physical voters, and Democrats were way more likely to vote by mail this year.

      But…even ignoring that…like, that poll actually shows Trump lost a very small fraction, and it’s kinda weird to report it as ‘gained in every demographic except…’Report

  27. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    More people are talking about how Biden could still get it than are talking about how Trump could still get it.Report

    • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      Remember 2016? Saying “Trump needs V, W, X, Y, and Z to happen in order to win”?

      V, W, and X have happened.Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to Jaybird
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      I’m finding The Young Turks highly entertaining. It might be more fun than their 2016 coverage. ^_^

      They’re suggesting an alternate reality, pretty much some kind of Marvel Universe version of the Democrat campaign, in contrast to what they are deriding as being “sooooo weak…” — “Utter contemptible weakness.” He also called them cowards.Report

  28. Avatar Marchmaine
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    says:

    Whelp… I’m calling it a night… 207 Biden to 148 Trump.

    I think the post-mortems are a bit early, and I expect to wake up to a Biden lead… but I’m concerned that the underperformance of Biden will leave the gate open for challenges in a state or two. Needed a clean win (one way or another) and this doesn’t look like that. Dang.Report

    • Avatar North in reply to Marchmaine
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      I’m turning in too. Biden looks like he has AZ nailed down pretty well. That leaves him a lot of potential ways to win. But it’s looking bleaker for a Democratic Senate and if he does win it’ll be narrow.Report

  29. Avatar Jaybird
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    Looks like Biden won Arizona. Which is a flip that he needed.

    Which sounds like cope when you say it out loud.Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      That will have to be walked back. Arizona has only reported the early or mail-in vote totals, not the votes from people showing up at a polling place and voting.Report

    • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      Yeah with AZ in his column Biden has a wide variety of ways to get to the number he needs. But it means we will be waiting forever until the Midwest states get their votes counted. And it assuredly means no huge loss for the GOP which is going to leave everything a muddle. We’ll see how the counting looks tomorrow.Report

      • Avatar Jaybird in reply to North
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        says:

        Yeah, there’s still plenty of ways that Biden could still win!Report

        • Avatar George Turner in reply to Jaybird
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          says:

          Let the massive Democrat vote counting fraud begin!Report

          • Avatar Slade the Leveller in reply to George Turner
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            Dems manufacture votes, Republicans supress them. LET THE BETTER CHEATER WIN!!Report

            • Avatar George Turner in reply to Slade the Leveller
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              says:

              Twitter is now censoring pretty much anything a Republican says, including the President. To say that it is causing massive, unquenchable anger is an understatement.

              Twitter will probably be broken up or put under government control. Senator Ted Cruz has already threatened felony charges against Dorsey.Report

              • Avatar DavidTC in reply to George Turner
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                Um, you do realize that it’s entirely legal for a company to take a political position? Twitter could literally delete every Twitter by everyone their algorythm detects as as Republican. They could even send voting reminders to everyone they think is a Democratic and not Republican.

                Welcome to Citizens United!

                About the only thing they can’t do would be to explicitly boost Biden’s campaign’s tweets, as that might be ‘coordination’. Not sure, but they should be safe instead of sorry. They cannot ‘coordinate’ with the campaign.

                But they can delete whatever they want to, they can delete every positive mention of Trump, and promote every positive mention of Biden, and give a huge platform to any sort of Democrat as long as that Democrat isn’t actually part of the campaign. And literally bar any Republicans they want.

                Again, welcome to Citizens United, where corporations have first amendment rights. And just like _I_ have the first amendment right to exclude someone from my house because they are supporting a specific political candidate, Twitter does too.

                And before you start talking about Section 230, be aware that Trump’s reading of that is actually very stupid, and says that literally any moderation besides ‘obscene, lewd, lascivious, filthy, excessively violent, harassing or otherwise objectionable’ content opens web sites up to a lawsuit…which is a really absurd concept, it would mean that moderators couldn’t delete non-porn spam messages, or have _topics_ for various forums.

                “We tested, and Ordinary Times filtered a comment that was just a bunch of affiliate links to car parts on sale at Amazon! None of those car parts were vaguely lewd, and the URLs certainly weren’t. By moderating that comment, OT has shown they are not covered under the protection of Section 230, and thus can be sued for hosting any user-posted content that violates copyright or is libelous.”Report

              • Avatar George Turner in reply to DavidTC
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                says:

                And the government can remove their legal protections and we can all sue them into oblivion.Report

              • Avatar DavidTC in reply to George Turner
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                Corporations have equal protection of their constitutional rights under the law. The was literally the point of Citizens United.

                And thus, the government creating specific rules that treat _a specific person’s_ (Which Twitter is.) speech differently is almost certainly a bill of attainder, and unconstitional.

                The government can’t pass a law makging George Turner more civially liable for his speech than everyone else, and it can’t pass one making Twitter that either.

                Oh, incidentally, this wouldn’t work anyway! Section 230 exists to clarify a single bad court decision. That decision is Stratton Oakmont, Inc. v. Prodigy Services Co, and it said that moderation made someone a publisher. In 1995. Before the actual internet was opened to the public.

                There is no way the courts would come to the same decisions _currently_. Because, again, they would hestitate before destroying the internet.

                So if Section 230 was repealed because everyone (Including the Democrats, which obviously would have to agree to such a change in the law.) was incredibly stupid, the courts would probably look back to the original court case about this, Smith v. California (1959), which is where that distinction originally came from , and decide that distinction was _incorrectly_ decided in Stratton Oakmont, Inc. v. Prodigy Services Co.

                Because in Smith, the court pointed out that distribution has a key role in first amendment rights, and that distributors have _a choice in what they distribute_. They have a choice in what they sell and shelf. So the distributor in Smith was _also_ moderating content. In fact, the case was literally about him being required, by law, to moderate content! It was an obscenity case.

                And yet the entire premise of Stratton Oakmont, Inc. v. Prodigy Services Co is that moderation of content somehow made people a publisher instead of a distributor, under the Smith distrinction! Huh? The logic simply isn’t there, and Stratton Oakmont, Inc. v. Prodigy Services Co was decided wrongly. (And the courts never fixed it because the legislature did first.)

                The Surpreme Court, if asked now, would probably say that moderating posts, just like ‘moderating’ what books are for sale by a bookseller, is not publishing, and the threshold to publishing is ‘non-automated alteration or suggestion of alterations of content’ or something like that.

                I.e, that being a publisher requires someone acting as ‘editor’, or having some role in the creation of content, and _not_ simply picking and choosing which content they pass along.

                That’s where I would guess the courts would go. And note that just gets someone to ‘distributor’, but courts have held you can’t hold someone liable for merely unknowingly distributing libel.

                Now, in a sane world, we could regulate Twitter, not via libel laws (Which is an insane misuse of the law anyway!) because they _have no first amendment rights_, and we could demand they operate more as a common carrier, or create a new category that allows moderation for specific things but not other things. Everything I said above only applies to people with first amendment rights, and in a sane world, Twitter would not be one of those ‘people’.

                Welcome, again, to Citizens United.

                Actually, I kinda want to repeat the point I just parenthesised above, and show just how dangerous conservatives are: George is suggesting that if Twitter decides it wants to operate AS A LIBERAL PLATFORM, that it should be stripped of its protection AGAINST LIBEL SUITS.

                You will notice those two things are unrelated, and you will also notice he’s just suggesting this for Twitter, and not, for example, the comments section of townhall.com. He’s not suggesting that ‘Corporations shouldn’t be able to have political biases’, which is something that possibly could be defended, I guess (Even I don’t go that far!), he is instead suggesting that a specific corporation with a wide reach isn’t allowed to have a _liberal_ bias.

                This is how conservatives think. That the government should just just punish people, or even corporations, for having the wrong political option. If they can figure out some way to do it legally.Report

              • Avatar DavidTC in reply to DavidTC
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                Oh, and before anyone says ‘liberals want to do the same to Facebook’…they don’t.

                No one on the left has suggested allowing Facebook to be sued by random people for what users post on there.

                Even when Democrats started looking into the repeated misinformation there, they didn’t talk about opening up Facebook to liability for those, which notable is literally what libel laws _are supposed to be for_, to stop harmful misinformation. This is because doing that would result in thousands of harassment lawsuits for content that Facebook has literally no idea about, and that’s no way to fix anything.

                This is unlike my hypothetical of ‘Twitter deleting posts and throwing conservative people off’, which is clearly _not_ libel in any possible way, and yet George suggests libel laws should somehow be involved there…mostly because that would allow people to harass the corporation with meritless lawsuits.

                Facebook is not actually being investigated because it seems to have a conservative slant in what it allows…it is sometimes questioned about that, but it’s being investigated, along with other tech companies, because it has a _huge monopoly_. The questioning about the slant is more ‘I, as a Democrat, don’t like having to use something with this conservative slant to communicate with people, and I’d stop using it if I could, but I have to because it’s a huge monopoly and there is no competition’, and not ‘I don’t like Facebook being able to have this slant’.

                Facebook is pretending to be neutral to avoid this. They are attempting to argue they are more like a common carrier, a sort of ‘natural monopoly’ and they are not abusing their position. This is bullshit, but that’s why they’re asserting it.

                Facebook should be broken up. So should Twitter, for that matter. We need to figure out some way in which social media can function in a _distributed_ manner, via open protocols. More like email.

                Democrats would like this to happen, although our elected politicians don’t appear tech-savvy enough to do it, or even understand what needs to be done. But Republicans…just want the liberal Twitter to go away, because it’s badthink.Report

  30. Avatar DavidTC
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    So, summary time at 1 in the morning EST:

    CNN just called Minnesota for Dems. That’s 215 D to 171 R…and the Ds are assured of 4 from Hawaii and Rs 3 from Alaska, so let’s call that 218 to 174.

    So far theres not been an upset. Although Texas and Georgia _still_ refuse to finish, and Georgia isn’t finishing until tomorrow.

    And Virgina, weirdly, seems to be called D despite being still on the line…but I think they’re looking at places the votes aren’t in yet from, and deciding those locations are not going to flip things.

    Not sure why they haven’t called Arizona for D. Almost all counties are ~80% it, and of the two biggest counties, one is somewhat, and the other massively, in favor of Trump. I honestly can’t figure out how it could go R unless there’s some slightly more fine-level geographic thing people are looking at.Report

    • Avatar DavidTC in reply to DavidTC
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      Ah, they just called Texas, and Trump leaps to 209 on CNN and Biden to 219 with Rhode Island. (That’s without Hawaii or Alaska.)

      It’s discouraging to see a jump like that, but…I mean, Texas wasn’t _supposed_ to be a tossup to start with. It was surreal it held on so long.Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to DavidTC
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      The AZ governor is angry at Fox. They called it for Biden when people were still standing in line to vote. That alone could be reason to consider Arizona invalid.

      But more importantly, he says the results coming in, with 900,000 outstanding, are 2 to 1 in favor of Trump, which would be a 300,000 vote gain. If he is correct, Trump will win Arizona with a margin of 138,000.Report

      • Avatar DavidTC in reply to George Turner
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        says:

        Well, no, he’s a liar. Because…there aren’t 900,000 outstanding votes, for one. There’s like 600,000 of them.

        Or, possibly, 300,000 of them have come in since then, and changed the percentage not a bit.

        (The answer is the first one, but the second one is a funny possiblity.)

        And, I think we have our first Republican example of trying to invalidate votes! Wooo!

        Hey, George? Why the _fuck_ would a _news station_ doing something mean people in _Arizona_ aren’t allowed to vote in the election. Arizona…the state, the governor, the people, the election board…literally none of them did anything wrong.

        If you think Fox did something wrong, go after Fox. Like Governor apparently did.

        But no, you’ve decided that’s enough to consider Arizona’s vote invalid. (That alone, even! So there might be _other_ reason to consider that too!)

        I’m glad you did say that, actually, because….that, right there, convinces me that you don’t believe what you just said about Arizona, and, deep down, you believe that they will be voting Democratic.

        Oh, and can I just point out the surrealness of arguing that a state that looks to be voting _Democratic_ shouldn’t be considered ‘valid’ because of what _Fox News_. You can, rather obviously, see the danger there, right? That the next election, media with a partisen tilt, both left and right, will preemptively call states _they don’t want to be able to vote_?Report

      • Avatar DavidTC in reply to George Turner
        Ignored
        says:

        Mmm, other comment stuck in moderations, but I think I just want to point this out: If anyone had ‘After the pools close, but before the morning of the 4th’ in the betting pool of ‘How long before conservaives try to claim a vote is invalid’, you just won.Report

    • Avatar DavidTC in reply to DavidTC
      Ignored
      says:

      So, now we’re at 220 with Biden, plus he’s going to get Hawaii, so 224.

      I’m still completely baffled at the failure to call Arizona…it’s 79% in and Biden is ahead by six points. So that would put him at 235.

      And Nevada is now in the same boat! Almost the exact same same percentages! That would be 241, or 29 votes short.

      Trump is 213, or 216 after Alaska.

      Georgia(16) and North Carolina(15) both have Trump barely ahead, but those states have a bunch of mail in ballots, and NC, notable, will count ballots that arrive up to _nine_ days after the election as long as they are postmarked by the election. Those are both states that almost certainly will drift towards Biden as the counting continunes…and Trump is only two points ahead in both of them.

      And Wisconsin(10) is in the same boat as GA and NC, in that they’re having to count mailed in ballots right now. (And will count them up to three days late.) And Biden did win Minnesota.

      In fact, I think Wisconsin will almost certainly go Biden, eventially

      Michigan(16) and Maine(4) both seems to be drunk and only have ~63% of the votes in. Michigan is about 10 points towards Trump and Maine is about 8 towards Biden, but…no idea if that will stay like that. (I kid…it’s Michigan is also counting mail in ballots.)

      If Biden wins two of GA, NC, MI or (ME+WI), he wins.

      This all, assumes, he’s not winning Pennsylvania and their 20 votes. Which…seems logical, that’s tilted towards Trump a lot right now, but…they have a _lot_ of outstanding votes.

      Be prepared for Trump to demand vote counting to stop, because, if it halted right now, he’d win. (Because Democrats voted by mail, and dumbass laws didn’t allow those votes to be tallyed until election day, which they have to be manually.)

      And…I’m heading out for the night. I predict I will wake up to Biden having Arizona and Nevada and Hawaii, and Trump Alaska, and hopefully some other people have finished.Report

  31. Avatar Kazzy
    Ignored
    says:

    Van Jones just made three interesting statements:
    1. Hey GOP, don’t assume more voters is bad for you.
    2. Hey Dems, don’t assume a more diverse population is good for you.
    3. Hey everyone… we can’t trust the polls.Report

  32. Avatar Kazzy
    Ignored
    says:

    Cautiously optimistic of a Biden victory. He could even end up with a largish (300+) EV vote. But no matter what the election will feel close and illegitimate to whomever loses.Report

    • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Kazzy
      Ignored
      says:

      I saw that both Wisconsin and Michigan had large bumps of votes for Biden overnight.

      So long as they keep finding votes, there’s no problem.Report

      • Avatar DavidTC in reply to Jaybird
        Ignored
        says:

        CNN and NBC have now called Wisconsin for Biden, giving him 237, and Trump 216 once you count Alaska. (Why are they not calling that?!)

        If Biden wins Michigan, he’d be at 253…which it looks like he will, although annoyingly there is one country, Atrim, with _no_ votes in, which makes it impossible to figure which why they lean, or what the total amounts are…and they’re in a position that they might go either way.

        But besides that county, all the Trump areas in Michigan are 95%-99% in, and Detroit is way back at _81%_, with another 200,000 votes coming in, which works out to another 50,000 Biden votes. Whereas it’s hard to see where Trump can even get any….Grand Rapids is large and has only 83% in, but…it’s also 51% Trump, 47% Biden, so not many Trump votes gained there, and it’s like a third the size of Detroit anyway. I don’t know why they aren’t calling Michigan, but unless Detroit has suddenly become pro-Trump when no one was looking…Michigan is going to Biden.

        Arizona is still also not called, despite the fact that seems pretty clearly Biden. Like, again, the giant population centers are not fully in, and they are very pro-Biden, and the rural areas, which are pro-Trump, are in. Can’t see how Trump wins there. That would bump things to 264.

        Sadly, Nevada now seems to be in danger…although maybe not, the giant Democratic areas have less votes in than the much smaller Republican areas. But it’s much much closer. If that one goes Biden too…that’s it, it’s over, without Pennsylvia even being involved, much less Georgia and North Carolina.Report

        • Avatar George Turner in reply to DavidTC
          Ignored
          says:

          Arizona calls have been retracted. It looks like Trump will win by 30K, which is aside from a known R undercount due to using Sharpies that wouldn’t register with the scanners. That was a poll-worker error that will get corrected.Report

          • Avatar DavidTC in reply to George Turner
            Ignored
            says:

            It doesn’t look like that in anyone’s head but yours, George. Trump is still 92,000 behind there.

            Wait, didn’t you say, _13 hours ago_ that there were a bunch of Republican votes come in? Where are they? How did the governor know about them _13 hours ago_ and they haven’t been reported yet?

            Actually, fun fact: It wasn’t the governor who said that. It was Trump senior campaign adviser Jason Miller.

            And he said that _when the percentages were 52.6% to 46.1%. With 73% of the counting done. And he claimed that 2/3s of the remaining votes would be for Biden

            And now it’s 86% and it’s…51% to 47%. So about a third of the remaining votes have been counted. Where is the massive Trump change?

            Now, he was right, they did move towards Trump…slightly. Biden was 6.5 points ahead, now he is 4. Certainly not anywhere near a 2:1 ratio, though.

            But wait, you say: If counting from 73% to 86%, aka, 13%, removed 2.5 points of the lead, then moving the remaining 14% could remove another ~2.7 points. Not quite enough to win, but…very very close.

            Well, maybe, except…that lead previous was reduced because of which counties reported in.

            There are currently only ~440,000 outstanding votes in Nevada. Trump would have to get ~265,000 of them, or 60% of the outstanding ones, to win.

            Of all the counties where Trup has gotten over 50% of the vote…all but three of these are at least 90% reported…and one is very small, and another is moderately small. The last could give him another 20,000 votes, I guess…which is completely swamped by the obvious gains Biden will make in Phoenix and Tuscon.

            There isn’t anywhere else for Trump to get votes…you basically have to assume that Maricopa country, which is currently voting for Biden by 6 points, is somehow going to start voting the other way.Report

            • Avatar George Turner in reply to DavidTC
              Ignored
              says:

              Last night I was punching the new updates into Excel and looking at the data. The day-of vote was going 66 to 35 Trump, and the governor said there were 900K ballots outstanding. Simple math said Trump would win it by 80K. Subsequent vote updates dropped by estimate to 70K. Trump’s people, looking at the data, are predicting a 30K Trump win.

              The issue in Arizona is that Fox called it with about 1,332,190 early votes for Biden, 1,170,324 early votes for Trump, 35,021 day-of votes for Biden, and 66,222 day-of votes for Trump, with 900,000 day-of-votes outstanding.

              As we all know, Democrats were voting early and Republicans were waiting to vote in person. The early call was basically just sampling the Democrat votes and ignoring the Republican votes.

              And the Sharpie thing will probably be investigated as attempted voter disenfranchisement. Democrats have always found clever ways to avoid counting black votes, and handing Sharpies to Republicans was just their latest trick.Report

              • Avatar DavidTC in reply to George Turner
                Ignored
                says:

                I will fully accept that it was called too early by Fox News.

                That doesn’t change the fact that the results are still very much in Biden’s favor.

                And at this point the votes we’re waiting for _aren’t_ the ‘day of’ votes…those are already in. Those were on machines, those were easy to add.

                What Arizona is now counting is the ‘arrived the day of’ votes. Aka, mailed (or dropped off) votes, but ones that were later than the already-counted votes they started with. I suspect that the counting of the mailed-in ones stopped back on Friday? That’s what they usually do, getting ready for the election Tuesday. So it’s everything after that, three days worth.

                I don’t know if those are going to come out differently than the earlier mail-in things, but…they’re probably not the same as the inperson stuff.Report

              • Avatar Philip H in reply to George Turner
                Ignored
                says:

                George, just stop. You’ve had a decent run as a troll under this president, but given that you don’t know what state Milwaukee is in, much less what is actually being said or done by election officials in Arizona, you are just grasping at overdone straws.

                I know you don’t care what us lefties think of you, but notice that none of your normal right side defenders are here with you on this journey. Perhaps its time to stop sniffing the rubber cement.Report

              • Avatar JoeSal in reply to Philip H
                Ignored
                says:

                Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but the only lefty here that called Trump 4 years ago was Kimmi. The fact that you think George is off doesn’t serve you well. When the dust settles you may have as much rubber cement in your nostrils and OT will have easily forgotten how closer the madhatters were to reality than the Good Society folks were.Report

        • Avatar DavidTC in reply to DavidTC
          Ignored
          says:

          Oh, and just for the record: If counting stopped right now, Biden would win.Report

  33. Avatar DavidTC
    Ignored
    says:

    So, Michigan’s been called for Biden, and Arizona is still very Biden, although only Fox is willing to call it. That’s 264, which means literally any state will put Biden over the line. And, as an added bonus, it is now literally impossible to tie, avoiding _that_ nightmare. There are no combinations of states that can add up to 269.

    (BTW, Trump hilariously has a lawsuit in Michigan to halt counting…and he’s currently _behind_. LOL. Good planning, guys. You realize that under no circumstances are they going to erase votes they _already_ counted, right?)

    North Carolina has said they won’t resume vote counting for a week, and that’s probably because they are required to count votes _mailed_ by election day that arrive within 12 days after. So…as they aren’t close enough to call, they will hang in limbo for a week. Trump will probably file some stupid lawsuit, but the state courts _already ruled on this_ explicitly.

    PA, meanwhile, has to wait until 3 days after…although that might be callable for Trump once they reduce the pile a bit and it’s clear it’s not going to be enough? I honestly don’t know.

    Nevada _also_ accepts ballots up to a week later.

    There is, of course, one state that does not accept mail ballots that arrived after yesterday: Georgia. Georgia has every ballot it is going to count, in its hands.

    Which means it could be fucking _Georgia_ that pushes things over the line. (ALthough if Georgia is going Biden, it’s almost certain NC will also, just…we won’t know until later.)Report

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