Then there's nothing to discuss or worry about... the process is working. The overwhelming evidence will be reviewed by the people who have authority to review and take appropriate action. Right?
"The [insert prior here] proved that [insert preferred example of said prior here]. The lack of [insert same prior here] in 2020 means [insert wildest dream outcome here]."
Not necessarily, no. The state laws govern when a recount is even available (and often who pays). The states can, and will, refuse to do a recount if it falls outside their statutes. GA, WI (I got that wrong) and AZ do *not* have automatic recounts... PA does.
The main point is that the States determine the conditions under which they will do a recount. Candidate's wishes and willingness to pay are sometimes necessary, but not sufficient causes.
Fair enough
PA: Trump needs approx 13k more votes for automatic recount (0.5%)
GA: Recount may be requested... Biden needs 13k more votes to exceed threshold (0.5%)
WI: Automatic recount will be triggered (1%)
AZ: Trump needs approx 14k votes for recount (very high threshold 0.1% - would qualify @ 0.5%)
But this is why Trumps actual chances are vanishingly small... he'd have to qualify for all 4 *and* flip them all in a recount. As I read it, candidates may request a recount (if qualified) within a period of days once the vote is certified. Have any of the votes been certified? based on a quick search on Georgia, it appears not... counties have until 11/13 and the state has a deadline of 11/20.
Plus, all it would take would be one of the states to close the re-count window and it wouldn't matter if any of the other states flipped. Once that happens... then sure, start the transition process. Maybe that has happened... but that would be the best counter-argument.
Eh... enough of the votes in a few states are close enough that they should be audited. There's nothing wrong with that. I assume the states have built in professional audit standards and practices. (Right?). I personally have no expectation that the audits will turn up anything unusual (but they theoretically could) and aside from Georgia audits/recounts don't swing tens of thousands of votes. But given the < 1% margin in AZ, GA, WI and PA it's hard to see objecting to an audit/recount. I expect some of these states already have statues that require it anyway.
This isn't anything like 2000... we forget that the issue in 2000 was not that it was close, but that we had doubts as to the mechanics of the actual ballots... butterfly punch ballots malfunctioned and we were in the odd scenario of having to attempt to 'discern' voter's intentions after the fact. The whole 'hanging chad,' 'dimpled chad' chadastrophic episode that isn't analogous to the current situation.
As I say, I'm convinced Biden has won the election... which is why I'm unconcerned about the audits/recounts; I'm a little concerned about the notion that "President Elect" Biden is something other than a media honorific. He's not President Elect until all the votes are certified - hence the whole audit thing - and the EC votes for him. I also have no problem with the media short-hand calling him "President Elect" as it represents the most likely outcome, and pedantically calling him "Provisionally President Elect" is probably unhelpful.
But, for the norm loving, process following, non-fascist, above board left... audit and recount (where appropriate) should be the stated preference. Biden won the election, there's no rush... and if these norms and processes I keep hearing about are so important, we should be bolstering them.
Perdue's senate race just dipped below 50% (still called for him), so if that holds it means a double run-off in GA.
That's gonna be a rumble. Control of the Senate with two (Runs-off? Run-offs?) tie-breakers.... Heck, I might even drive down and illegally vote in it.
There's the fact that Trump's business dealings probably include things that may or may not be illegal. It's debatable whether anyone should be 'investigated' simply by running for office... but if planning to run for office, be prepared to be investigated is probably a good rule. Call it the Icarus Rule.
Less clear to me are all the yappings about this or that thing that he did as President. If we're going to put a President on trial for a war-crime level offense, then I expect the political capital would have been invested in the election for a mandate to do so. To bring a president up on charges of misusing the public purse for charging market rates to the Secret Service? That's just dumb; and, one, you'll get back twice what you serve and two you've probably just spent your political capital for no gain.
So make the distinction clearer on what's happening... I don't think there's much objection to illegal activities being illegal. But if the notes behind your legal activities show illegal reasons for doing those things - well, President Trump and his DOJ have some lessons learned to pass along.
I hate to say it, but this is the best possible loss for Trump. (assuming the estimates/margins hold).
Even if the final totals *eventually* show that Biden won, let's say, GA and PA and AZ... Trump will forever trumpet a 'statistical tie' and claim that some shady shenanigans of an unspecified but collectively half-remembered thing are the reason he didn't win.
For his Brand? This is a win. Might be worth more than an actual win.
I could see a few networks paying him a bajillion dollars to be their expert analyst... I mean, he is, technically, the ex-President... and he's not afraid to make up stories about stuff he heard/said/did and comment on whatever damn thing is up for commenting in our 24hr news cycle.
Although, if I'm reading the Senate races correctly... it's at least a little bit of a pause to think everything will hinge on Kelly Loeffler in the run-off. That kinda has Greek Tragedy (or Comedy) written all over it.
Yeah, from my perspective it's not a horrible outcome. I'm a little concerned that the tightness of the race will keep Trump viable as a sort of "Shadow President" that will retard the reckoning/rebuild/realign. But the work must continue either way... probably better with these results for the next 4 years... but I do think it delays real improvements in a weird hanged state.
I want to imagine that Biden upon reaching his final tally of 270 EC votes pumps his fist and yells, "Nailed it!" while his aides politely look at their shoes.
At least that's how I imagine Sorkin would've written it.
On “Harsh Your Mellow Monday: Brace Yourself, Confirmed Priors Are A’Comin’”
Quite so.
On “Confidence Interval and The 2020 Election”
Then there's nothing to discuss or worry about... the process is working. The overwhelming evidence will be reviewed by the people who have authority to review and take appropriate action. Right?
On “Harsh Your Mellow Monday: Brace Yourself, Confirmed Priors Are A’Comin’”
"The [insert prior here] proved that [insert preferred example of said prior here]. The lack of [insert same prior here] in 2020 means [insert wildest dream outcome here]."
Yes, but my priors are correct.
"
Whomever they pick, if Sir Sean were still around I'd have him ceremonially host the first post-Trebek game. Alas.
"
Pity Sean Connery passed as well...
On “Confidence Interval and The 2020 Election”
If there's evidence of rigging, then the violation of those laws will determine what recourse is available.
Make that case, the courts are open.
But absent any substantiations of rigging? Yeah, the State(s) in question will Nigerian Funeral Dance their certifications on in.
"
Not necessarily, no. The state laws govern when a recount is even available (and often who pays). The states can, and will, refuse to do a recount if it falls outside their statutes. GA, WI (I got that wrong) and AZ do *not* have automatic recounts... PA does.
The main point is that the States determine the conditions under which they will do a recount. Candidate's wishes and willingness to pay are sometimes necessary, but not sufficient causes.
"
Fair enough
PA: Trump needs approx 13k more votes for automatic recount (0.5%)
GA: Recount may be requested... Biden needs 13k more votes to exceed threshold (0.5%)
WI: Automatic recount will be triggered (1%)
AZ: Trump needs approx 14k votes for recount (very high threshold 0.1% - would qualify @ 0.5%)
But this is why Trumps actual chances are vanishingly small... he'd have to qualify for all 4 *and* flip them all in a recount. As I read it, candidates may request a recount (if qualified) within a period of days once the vote is certified. Have any of the votes been certified? based on a quick search on Georgia, it appears not... counties have until 11/13 and the state has a deadline of 11/20.
Plus, all it would take would be one of the states to close the re-count window and it wouldn't matter if any of the other states flipped. Once that happens... then sure, start the transition process. Maybe that has happened... but that would be the best counter-argument.
"
Eh... enough of the votes in a few states are close enough that they should be audited. There's nothing wrong with that. I assume the states have built in professional audit standards and practices. (Right?). I personally have no expectation that the audits will turn up anything unusual (but they theoretically could) and aside from Georgia audits/recounts don't swing tens of thousands of votes. But given the < 1% margin in AZ, GA, WI and PA it's hard to see objecting to an audit/recount. I expect some of these states already have statues that require it anyway. This isn't anything like 2000... we forget that the issue in 2000 was not that it was close, but that we had doubts as to the mechanics of the actual ballots... butterfly punch ballots malfunctioned and we were in the odd scenario of having to attempt to 'discern' voter's intentions after the fact. The whole 'hanging chad,' 'dimpled chad' chadastrophic episode that isn't analogous to the current situation. As I say, I'm convinced Biden has won the election... which is why I'm unconcerned about the audits/recounts; I'm a little concerned about the notion that "President Elect" Biden is something other than a media honorific. He's not President Elect until all the votes are certified - hence the whole audit thing - and the EC votes for him. I also have no problem with the media short-hand calling him "President Elect" as it represents the most likely outcome, and pedantically calling him "Provisionally President Elect" is probably unhelpful. But, for the norm loving, process following, non-fascist, above board left... audit and recount (where appropriate) should be the stated preference. Biden won the election, there's no rush... and if these norms and processes I keep hearing about are so important, we should be bolstering them.
"
"Black Men and Hispanic men who thought he was more macho macho"
This is pretty much how you shrink a coalition, but please keep explaining to those people how they are voting.
On “Election Day, Le Troisième Jour: UPDATED Recap, Open Thread, and Latest News”
Perdue's senate race just dipped below 50% (still called for him), so if that holds it means a double run-off in GA.
That's gonna be a rumble. Control of the Senate with two (Runs-off? Run-offs?) tie-breakers.... Heck, I might even drive down and illegally vote in it.
"
I think these are two different sorts of things.
There's the fact that Trump's business dealings probably include things that may or may not be illegal. It's debatable whether anyone should be 'investigated' simply by running for office... but if planning to run for office, be prepared to be investigated is probably a good rule. Call it the Icarus Rule.
Less clear to me are all the yappings about this or that thing that he did as President. If we're going to put a President on trial for a war-crime level offense, then I expect the political capital would have been invested in the election for a mandate to do so. To bring a president up on charges of misusing the public purse for charging market rates to the Secret Service? That's just dumb; and, one, you'll get back twice what you serve and two you've probably just spent your political capital for no gain.
So make the distinction clearer on what's happening... I don't think there's much objection to illegal activities being illegal. But if the notes behind your legal activities show illegal reasons for doing those things - well, President Trump and his DOJ have some lessons learned to pass along.
"
That's how you get perpetual war with Eastasia
"
Sun Tzu: Never put the Marketing guy in charge.
"
I hate to say it, but this is the best possible loss for Trump. (assuming the estimates/margins hold).
Even if the final totals *eventually* show that Biden won, let's say, GA and PA and AZ... Trump will forever trumpet a 'statistical tie' and claim that some shady shenanigans of an unspecified but collectively half-remembered thing are the reason he didn't win.
For his Brand? This is a win. Might be worth more than an actual win.
On “Thursday Throughput: Luna Water Edition”
Less Political?
Sir Francis Drake would like a word.
On the plus side... SPACE PIRATES
On “Election Day, Part Deux: Recap, Open Thread, and Latest News”
I could see a few networks paying him a bajillion dollars to be their expert analyst... I mean, he is, technically, the ex-President... and he's not afraid to make up stories about stuff he heard/said/did and comment on whatever damn thing is up for commenting in our 24hr news cycle.
"
The runoff will be a margin call on whatever she has left invested in the Party.
"
Well, right... I thought that's how I arranged the words above. :-)
But seriously, I don't think any of us have fully contemplated what life with two Presidents will be like.
"
I was gonna go with 'insufferable' ... but yours is better.
"
Although, if I'm reading the Senate races correctly... it's at least a little bit of a pause to think everything will hinge on Kelly Loeffler in the run-off. That kinda has Greek Tragedy (or Comedy) written all over it.
"
Yeah, from my perspective it's not a horrible outcome. I'm a little concerned that the tightness of the race will keep Trump viable as a sort of "Shadow President" that will retard the reckoning/rebuild/realign. But the work must continue either way... probably better with these results for the next 4 years... but I do think it delays real improvements in a weird hanged state.
"
Keep telling y'all... first party to the Upper Left wins.
Could be Dems, could be Republicans, could be other.
"
Sings Nessun Dorma and carries 'Vincero' like Pavarotti?
I probably should've paid closer attention to West Wing when it was on.
"
I want to imagine that Biden upon reaching his final tally of 270 EC votes pumps his fist and yells, "Nailed it!" while his aides politely look at their shoes.
At least that's how I imagine Sorkin would've written it.