The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election

We had one of these back in January where we discussed whether or not Trump would be on the November ballot.

We had one of these back in July where we discussed whether or not Biden would be on the November ballot.

Here’s the big thing: The ballots are finally hammered down. It’s Harris/Walz vs. Trump/Vance.

We have a Senate election with *9* retirements including Arizona’s Sinema and West Virginia’s Manchin. For Republicans, Indiana and Utah have Braun and Romney retiring. Democrats have Butler retiring in California (Feinstein’s old seat), Carper in Delaware, Cardin in Maryland, Stabenow in Michigan, and Helmy in New Jersey.

The House currently has 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats (1 Republican resigned recently, 2 Democrats passed away).

So there’s a lot of stuff in the air.

The first big question is: Will there be any more assassination attempts? Wait. Am I allowed to ask that? It’s not like we’re betting money on it. Maybe I shouldn’t ask that.

Okay, so what’s the 270 to win map look like for the election? Here you go: Draw your own map (I’ve taken the liberty of using “same since 2000” as a starting point).

Any surprises on your map? (Where a “surprise” is defined as “different from the 2024 Consensus map.)

As for the senate, there are 34 seats up for election this year. 33 of them are for “Class 1” and 1 of them is from “Class 2”. Of these, 20 Democrats are up for re-election, 10 Republicans, and *FOUR* independents (each of which caucused with the Dems).

So, right away, it’s 24 Dem seats versus 10 Republicans. Just flipping a coin gives the Republicans somewhere around 7 seats. But, of course, it’s stuff like California and Delaware in the election. That ain’t a coin flip. We’ve got (deep breath): Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (twice, one of them is the special election), Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

See? How many of those are coin flips?

So the question about that is “How does the Senate makeup change?” How many seats are picked up/lost? We’re 50/50 today… what will the balance be come 2025?

The house is 220 to 212. What will it be come 2025?

Lay down your marker! (Remember, you can’t make fun of anybody else’s predictions until you lay down your own.)

And, for historical reasons, here’s some links to past predictions:

In 2011, we made predictions about 2012 and then, in 2012, enjoyed reading those predictions.

Back in 2015, we made predictions about the coming nominations and then, in 2016, had a real hootenanny looking back again.

In 2018, we made predictions about what would happen in the mid-terms.

And, yes, in 2019, we made predictions about who the Democratic nominees would be.

In 2020, we made predictions about the presidential election.

And, in 2022, we made predictions about the off-year election.