2024 Election Day Live Stream, Reaction, Open Thread

Live feed coverage from NBC News:

Some final ratings from our friends over at Elections Daily:

US President:

First off, we’re moving two Safe states onto the board. In an abundance of caution, we’re shifting Iowa and Ohio from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. This is primarily due to the Selzer poll showing Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa. We’re not convinced this poll is entirely accurate, but it has given us pause enough to reconsider Harris’s broader standing in the Rust Belt – a region Democrats have polled well in for much of this election cycle.

Next, we’re shifting Arizona to the Leans Republican column. Donald Trump has led in virtually all polls this cycle, including recent polls. The most recent gold standard NYT/Siena poll showed Trump ahead by four with registered voters; we don’t think he wins by that much, but we do think he broadly has an edge here. At the same time, we’re holding firm on our Leans Democratic rating for neighboring Nevada.

In Georgia, we think Kamala Harris is also the favorite. While Donald Trump has led in most polls, we think the fundamentals in this race play against him. He has a lot of room to fall in the Atlanta suburbs, and there’s no evidence that these trends have changed or abated. And barring a revolt among black voters – something that seems increasingly unlikely – Republicans will have to rely on increasing their share of rural white voters. Notably, a recent NYT/Siena poll didn’t indicate a realignment with black voters, and showed Harris ahead. We’re moving it to Leans Democratic.

Finally, in the biggest shift of this update, we’re moving all three Rust Belt swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – to Leans Democratic. Even before Joe Biden dropped out, polling showed Democrats in a stronger position in the industrial midwest than the Sun Belt, and we think this is still the case now. Polling averages show a near dead-heat in all three states, but we think Harris has the advantage.

Final Ratings

With these three Rust Belt swing states in her camp, we think Kamala Harris has the 270 electoral votes needed to be elected President. It’s worth noting that she could afford to lose one of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, as Georgia and Nevada collectively provide a buffer that would keep her just barely above 270.

If Harris were to lose in Nevada, she could then only afford to lose Michigan or Wisconsin, while a loss in Pennsylvania would allow Trump to pass 270. We don’t think there is any reasonable scenario leading to a 269-269 tie.

US Senate:

Our final Senate update features only three ratings changes. The first, and biggest, change is in Ohio, where we now expect Democrat Sherrod Brown to hold on for a fourth term. While polling has been slightly more favorable for Republican Bernie Moreno as of late, most credible polls still show Brown ahead. Excluding ActiVote, Moreno has led only three polls since September. He’s been outraised, outspent, and frankly just has not run a good campaign. And with the recent Iowa poll from Selzer showing a shock lead for Kamala Harris, we can’t dismiss the possibility that Democrats are broadly outperforming in the Rust Belt. We’re moving this to Leans Democratic.

In Texas, we still think incumbent Republican Ted Cruz is favored. He’s led in all but four polls in the entire campaign – but polling has narrowed to the point we can’t consider this a Likely race anymore. In the latest DDHQ/The Hill polling average, Cruz holds a three-point lead over Democrat Collin Allred. This is less than half the lead Trump has over Harris in the state, and it warrants moving the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

Finally, we’re reluctantly moving Nebraska’s regular Senate race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican out of an abundance of caution. Since our last update, we’ve had two nonpartisan polls – one from New York Times/Siena showing a two-point lead for Deb Fischer, and one from The Economist/YouGov showing a seven-point lead for Fischer. We’re skeptical this race ends up being that competitive – it has all the signs of a mirage race – but the nonpartisan polling here backs up the picture broadly presented by internal polling. Democratic-aligned Independent Dan Osborn is likely to outrun pretty much any Nebraska Democrat in recent memory; the question is just by how much.

Final Ratings

As a result of our final updates, we project Republicans will control 51 seats, compared to 49 for Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents.

US House of Representatives

Republican gains
Now, onto the Tossups. First, let’s go over the seats we expect to flip from Democratic to Republican. In Alaska, incumbent Mary Peltola faces a first – a race with only a single Republican opponent, and a good one at that. Polling has been limited here, but internals from the Begich camp show him up four in the last round of ranked-choice voting. A Data for Progress poll earlier this year showed the race tied, even with Peltola having a ten-point edge in favorability; we have reason to believe her approval has fallen since. We expect Alaska to be carried by Donald Trump by a margin of eight to ten points, and we don’t think Peltola will overcome that. This is a close one, but we’re moving it to Leans Republican.

In California’s 47th district, we expect Republican Scott Baugh to flip this open seat. This one comes down to candidate quality: this is a Biden+11 seat, but Baugh nearly flipped it last cycle. More importantly, Democratic nominee Dave Min has faced continual scrutiny for a 2023 DUI arrest as a state senator. We have this at Leans Republican. Finally, we’re moving Michigan’s 7th district, held by retiring Rep. Elissa Slotkin, to Leans Republican; all polls here have shown a lead for Republican Tom Barrett.

Democratic gains
On the Democratic side, we have six additional districts set to flip. The first is Arizona’s 1st district. Polling has been limited, but on a fundamental district level we think the trends will be too much for Schweikert to overcome. We’re moving it to Leans Democratic. In California’s 13th district’s rematch, we think Democrat Adam Gray is now the favorite to unseat first-term incumbent Republican John Duarte. We also expect Democrats to flip Iowa’s 3rd district, in large part due to a favorable broader climate in the Rust Belt. Both of them move to Leans Democratic.

In two races in New York, we’re moving the 19th district to Leans Democratic. We think Democratic stretch in Ithaca is going to be too much for first-term incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro to overcome. We also expect Democrats to flip Oregon’s 5th district and Pennsylvania’s 10th district. The 10th district in particular would be a major coup; incumbent Scott Perry is one of the foremost members of the Freedom Caucus, and one of the few to represent a genuine swing seat. Multiple polls, including a Republican internal, have shown him trailing Democrat Janelle Stelson. Both of these move to Leans Democratic.

What it means
With these changes, we predict that Democrats will flip control of the House of Representatives, but only barely. We’re projecting that 219 Democrats and 216 Republicans will be elected – a three-seat majority for the Democrats, among the narrowest in American history.

It’s worth noting, however, that the margin of error here is high. It would only take a handful of seats diverging for control to flip. In other words: this is as close to a 50/50 House of Representatives election as we’ve ever seen.