Dems Recapture NY-3, GOP House Majority Down to Two
Photo by Office of Rep. Tom Suozzi, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Thus, the electoral odyssey that brought us George Santos ends where it began, with Tom Souzzi once again representing New York’s 3rd Congressional District.
Tom Suozzi, a former Democratic congressman, won a closely watched special House election in New York on Tuesday, narrowing the Republican majority in Washington and offering his party a potential playbook to run in key suburban swing areas in November.
His larger than expected victory in the Queens and Long Island district avenged a year of humiliation unleashed by the seat’s former occupant, George Santos, and stanched a trend that had seen Republicans capture nearly every major election on Long Island since 2021.
Mr. Suozzi, 61, fended off the Republican nominee, Mazi Pilip, in a race that became an expensive preview of many of the fights expected to dominate November’s general election, especially over the influx of migrants at the border and in New York City.
A well-known centrist, Mr. Suozzi distanced himself from his party, calling for harsher policies at the border and vowing to work with Republicans to fix a broken immigration system. Polls suggested the independent approach helped cut into Ms. Pilip’s advantage on the issue, as Democratic super PACs deluged her with ads attacking her as anti-abortion.
In the end, the race also became an old-fashioned local contest over turnout as a rare Election Day snowstorm blanketed Long Island. The 11th-hour twist most likely helped Democrats, who had turned out in larger numbers during early voting despite Republicans’ vaunted Nassau County machine.
With 93 percent of votes counted, Mr. Suozzi had won 54 percent of the vote compared with 46 percent for Ms. Pilip, according to The Associated Press.
Mr. Suozzi’s comeback will have an immediate impact in Washington. After he is seated, Speaker Mike Johnson can afford to lose only two votes on any partisan bill, an unwieldy margin that could limit Republicans’ election-year legislative agenda.
The margins of victory were also much higher than the polls predicted. Souzzi won by 8 points roughly.Report
Every Republican in a purple district is having a meeting today with their campaign manager about this.Report
Santos won by 7%. Suozzi won by 8%. That’s a 15% swing.
This is a big freaking deal. Though 2022 was the year of apathetic Democrats in New York. The district is only nominally blue at +2.Report
This is not actually a problem as – contra Chip Roy – Republicans in the House have no legislative agenda for the rest of the year.Report
Apparently Suozzi ran on the failure of Republicans to pass any sort of immigration bill, on the theme that “Republicans can’t govern”.
Today, ICE added its two cents worth:
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has drafted plans to release thousands of immigrants and slash its capacity to hold detainees after the failure of a Senate border bill that would have erased a $700 million budget shortfall, according to four officials at ICE and the Department of Homeland Security.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2024/02/14/immigration-customs-enforcement-budget-deficit-republicans/
Maybe this is the “making government small enough to drown in a bathtub” thingy we used to hear so much about?Report
He ran as a moderate, known commodity and a safe pair of hands while aggressively attacking his opponent as an “ethical nightmare” and another Santos. The ads were relentless and effective.
It didn’t help the GOP that they put up someone who checked a lot of attractive boxes on paper, but was a total disaster as an actual candidate.
They get to do it all again in November, so should be interesting to see who the GOP put up this time. Hard to believe Mazi Pilips is going to get another crack.Report
Ah the explaining has begun. I find that moderate is a word that does a lot of heavy lifting and is malleable.* It is a D + 2 district and yeah, you can’t run AOC in such a district, fair enough. Chip isn’t stating that a Democratic candidate from one district will easily transplant to another. Souzzi is probably too conservative for the Bay Area suburban districts.
*My pet theory is that the descriptors people use says more about how they view themselves than their actual beliefs. Moderate is a word that makes someone sound reasonable, above the fray, etc, and who can object to that?Report
Ah, don’t get it twisted. I’m just reporting what I’ve observed having been in NY for the run-up to special election. It took up a lot of oxygen here.
“Moderate/bipartisan” was absolutely the primary positive message.
“Mazi is another George Santos” was absolutely the primary negative message.
As people rush to conclusions about this particular race and attempt to amplify meaning to November, they should keep in mind just how embarrassing it was to be the district that gave America George Santos. It was smart of Souzzi’s campaign to link the new novice pol with the last one, dubious as that link was.
And for the record, I don’t think the snow storm made a difference in the outcome, despite the dems dominating Rs in early voting. Souzzi was a lock.
Apparently the district may be redrawn (again) before November, so that bears watching in the months ahead.Report
I don’t think anyone should be too embarrassed. Personally I can’t wait for the prestige streaming series on Santos, which one has to assume is coming.Report