JD Vance, Josh Mandel Put The Race Into Ohio Senate Race
To misquote The Bard, hell is empty and all the devils are running in the Ohio Senate Race in the GOP primary.
Fair warning here: we will be wading fairly deep into the stupid, the prejudiced, the utterly obtuse world of ambition fueled by every bad culture war hot take you can think of here with two highly questionable human beings who have no business being anywhere near elected office. So, gird your loins.
Let us start off with the modern American oligarch wannabe JD Vance.
“Are you a racist? Do you hate Mexicans?” JD Vance asks in new Senate ad. pic.twitter.com/Q6z8s0wUdI
— Natalie Allison (@natalie_allison) April 5, 2022
Not to be out-viraled, Josh Mandel has himself an ad up as well as he continues in this, his third attempt at becoming a senator from the State of Ohio:
Martin Luther King marched right here so skin color wouldn’t matter. pic.twitter.com/kVSU4zKdM1
— Josh Mandel (@JoshMandelOhio) April 5, 2022
Just to drive the point home how much his visit to Selma meant to him, he once again takes a run at Bernice King and explains to her what her father really meant, and telling her to “study your history better”.
There is plenty in both those ads if you want to really dissect them, but JD Vance’s last line of “Because whatever they call us, we will put America first” is as good a place to start as any. “They” vs “we” is the heart of the “America First” sloganeering and the base-instinct pandering on things like race, immigration, and other issues folks who use “America First” as a sort of “abracadabra” to make whatever they said before or after fully justified. The underlying premise isn’t what puts America first, but who gets to define what America is and who is entitled to be an American. It isn’t new, creative, or particularly original.
Vance’s blaming of immigrants for everything up to and including his mother’s own addiction, which he detailed in his best-selling book Hillbilly Elegy that is now a major motion picture, would fit right into the anti-immigration sentiments of the late 1800s or early 1900s, or — as Vance proves — today. Illegal immigration is a problem to solve, but why do that when you can blame death, destruction, and Democrat election wins on it instead? “Them” is to blame, don’t you see, and no matter what “them” say we’re the true Americans, don’t you know? No need for accountability, restraint, or anything but the unbridled passionate righteousness of “we” versus the otherized, dehumanized, unAmericanated “them.”
Meanwhile, Josh Mandel went to Selma and learned nothing. The bridge has become a place for politicians and others to come and get a photo op, but what Josh should do is read King’s Letter From Birmingham Jail. That’s not as popular, of course, and not just because there isn’t video of it or landmark that still stands to go and get your picture taken in front of. For Mandel, a candidate who declares over and over again at his target audience he will legislate if elected “With the constitution in one hand and a Bible in the other” there would be real lessons to learn there.
Unlike the oft-quoted “judged by the color of their skin” portion of King’s “I Have A Dream Speech” that Mandel bastardized into “Martin Luther King marched right here so skin color wouldn’t matter” in his ad, Josh isn’t advocating for equality in a segregated country the way King was to a national audience; Mandel is demanding on behalf of his core audience that the problem just go away and not be talked about at the detriment of those who still have legitimate issues to be worked out.
King’s missive from that jail cell, directed at Christian church leaders in the south, holds unlearned lessons for the obstinate ones who use the demand of a “colorblind” society more as insulation from the hard parts of living in a diverse, pluralistic society than a noble goal of humanity. The duplicitous nature of using such a term to end debate and silence legitimate grievances certainly fits King’s assessment of the overtly religious who, on the issue of race, “stand on the sidelines and merely mouth pious irrelevancies and sanctimonious trivialities”.
Come to think of it, “pious irrelevancies and sanctimonious trivialities” is a pretty good caption to why both JD Vance and Josh Mandel are unfit for office. Both have well documented past statements and views that are contradictory to their latest public personas. The Harvard educated, Silicon Valley enriched Vance and the twice-failed Senate candidate Josh Mandel are trying to surf the current waves of Trumpian sentiment to high office in the state dubbed the “cradle of presidents”. The GOP primary in the Buckeye State has been an utter embarrassment to the people of Ohio, the Republican Party in particular, and the country as a whole. Candidates like Vance and Mandel posing and preening from buzz-worded controversy to viral issue and back again, trying to look more America First than the other. But like the state’s official tree, however you think it looks, every single part of it from flower, to foliage, to the eponymous nut itself, is highly toxic if ingested. Or, in this case, elected.
The most popular theme in Republican circles today is trolling, or vice signalling where they strive to assure the base that they hate the outgroup every bit as much as the base.
A few years ago the panic was Sharia Law where states and municipalities passed laws defiantly vowing to never allow it, then it was border caravans and immigrants, then it was critical race theory, now it is gay and trans people.
The object of the Two Minute Hate changes but the message is always the same- THEY are the Enemy, THEY are coming for your children, and THEY are not legitimate holders of power, or co-equal citizens deserving of fair treatment.Report
There is a part of me that hopes the Democrats manage to maintain the Senate majority because of various GOP clown car primaries and 2022 becomes the year of the GOP AIkening itself writ large. The Missouri GOP Senate primaries are also a Trumpian clown car as far as I can tell. This is probably going on in other places as well.
However, there is also another part of me that despairs that all of this primary clown car stuff will be memory holed and that it will be impossible to get general election voters to pay attention to this kind of stuff. Despite record levels of employment and an economy that is booming, American’s seem to be a grumpy lot. The GOP is super-animated and the Democrats seem unanimated for a variety of reasons. Some of this is traditional (thermostatic voting predates both of us). Other parts are because low-info Democrats think the Trump threat is gone. Some Democrats are upset at Biden not doing all the things (he did a lot of the things). Others dislike that the solution to getting rid of Manchin and Sinema is vote harder.Report
Most of the polling I have seen indicates that Gibbons and Mandel are leading the primary and Vance is a distant somewhere. As far as I know Gibbons has been avoiding the fire-breather stuff but could still believe in it. The latest polling (which is a month old) has Gibbons at 22 percent and Mandel at 20 percent.Report
1. Seems to me Ohio politics has gotten far weirder since I left the state in 1989. Then again – most of the time I was there I was a kid so I doubt I’d have noticed much. Then again, maybe politics have gotten weirder and worse almost everywhere recently, compared to how they were 30-40 years ago?
2. I saw the opening photo before I saw the caption and I was immediately “LOL Cuyahoga.” The river that caught fire a few months after I was born! It’s a lot cleaner now but yeah, I remember people saying not to eat the fish from it (if there even WERE fish in sections of it). It’s one of my examples in the Policy and Law class.Report
I understand that outside of the navigation channel stretch with heavy ship traffic the Cuyahoga has a reasonably thriving fish population, and meets recreational water standards except when it rains heavily and the combined sewer system overflows.
Cleveland signed a consent decree with the federal EPA to remediate the sewer problems. Water and sewer bills in the city have roughly doubled over the last 10 years, with the prospect of further increases. Current cost estimate is $3B, increasing from time to time.
As I recall, the projected cost to reduce combined sewer overflows to 10% of the current volume in the states that make up the expanded Rust Belt is something over a trillion dollars.Report
JD Vance remains behind the times. Mexican hate is so 2016. Now it is transpeople who are supposed to be the object of the five minute hate.Report
Is Ohio even considered a swing state any more? It seems more lightly red than anything to me.Report
Lists I’ve seen often use Ohio and Colorado as examples of states that used to be swing states, but are now considered reliably Republican and Democratic respectively, at least at the Presidential level. See also my comment to JB yesterday.Report
Ohio is fairly red these days. The big issue is whether they are solidly red enough that they have rendered the state Aiken-proof. So far Gibbons seems to have a small lead and this is probably the safest option for the GOP because he seems to be able to put himself above the fray as Mandel and Vance out freak each other. Ryan might still be able to beat Gibbons but it is a harder fight especially in a year that is poised to be good for Republicans. However if Mandel manages to win the primary, his clown antics provide ample ammo for the general campaign. Same with Vance.
This is one area where I think Democratic voters are less than strategic. We have a hard time dealing with the idea that there will always be deep red districts and states that elect people we hate. So doomed candidates like McGrath and anyone going up against MTG get tons of cash that ends up being a wasted resource. Ohio is not here yet and Senate races should always be taken seriously but I wish Democratic voters were able to resist the siren song of donating to Democratic challengers in R plus 25 districts.Report
“Are you a racist?
“Because I sure as hell am, and I’m gonna prove it by making a political ad about the Great Replacement!”Report
You’re just making his point.Report
It was Vance’s ad, not pillsy’s.
Sometimes a thing is just true.Report
Well in a sense I am, because that’s exactly how dogwhistles are supposed to work.
You say something that racists and libs will both recognize as racist, but that normies won’t.
The racists get fired up that you’re on your side.
The libs get mad and point out you’re a racist.
Then you turn to the normies and say, “These mean libs are calling me a racist over nothing!”Report
Accusing someone of dog whistling is like self-gaslighting. It’s like trying to convince someone that you’re crazy.Report
Ye cats can they all lose somehow? I guess in there general election someone’s got to lose…
So speaking of which, Dr. Amy Acton dropped out today. Too bad for Ohio Democrats, because there were hints she polled better than Ryan, but those sorts of early polls are often evanescent and she’s out of the race anyway so they’re now moot. So we are assuming Tim Ryan will win the Democratic primary in a walk? Does Morgan Harper have any chance in the primary at all?
Alas, Ohio is a reddening state that Trump won by eight points in ’20. But take heart, comrades! Sherrod Brown won re-election in ’18 by seven points… as an incumbent. Still, maybe it isn’t completely hopeless for a Democrat after all!Report
2018 is interesting because it was a Democratic wave year and Brown was reelected as you note but De Wine easily won the governorship.Report
Unfortunately, David Shor has shown w/ 2020 turnout, Sherrod Brown would’ve lost in 2020.
The bad news is Sherrod Brown will no longer be a Senator in 2023. The good news is, he’ll be no longer an example for people stuck in the political past to say, “see, we don’t need any Joe Manchin, since Sherrod Brown won (in three straight Democratic friendly races)!” in Ohio!Report
Senator Brown’s term doesn’t expire until 1/3/2025.Report
None of it is going to matter. GOP will win the seat no matter who gets nominated.
As of now, and basically for the last year, there’s two fixed stars in the American political firmament: GOP will control the House after the 2022 cycle, and GOP will control the Senate after the 2024 cycle. What’s not known is the overall trajectory of the parties starting the 2024 cycle and thereafter.
We’ve gotten used to the idea that the two major parties are roughly in balance, for most of us it’s difficult to imagine the idea that it could be any other way. But it absolutely can. There is nothing at all to guarantee that the Democratic Party will still exist in a meaningful way in 5-10 years. IMO this will largely be a function of the 2024 Presidential election and the Dems will have some very important and very difficult decisions to make in that cycle as to what they want to be and who they want to represent.Report
I recall hearing about the imminent annihilation of the Republican Party after 2008. And again after 2012. I put as much stock in portents of the imminent annihilation of the Democratic Party after 2024.
Agreed that it is possible for one party to be dominant over the other. And agreed further that for a while, the congruence of rural areas with conservative political sentiments does, and will continue to, give Republicans an advantage in the Senate and the Electoral College. Which is the root reason why Republicans resist calls to reform those institutions (and why Democrats periodically float them).
I guess what I’m saying is, even if things go well for Republicans in ’22 and ’24 as expected… don’t get cocky. The worm always turns.Report
Yeah, yeah that could be true, but the flip side is also true and for me at least much more interesting, mostly because I don’t think very much of our political culture has internalized it yet. The Left especially, but also our team for that matter.
Ie, libs understand that they might lose any particular election, but still they take for granted that they’ll always at least have a seat at the table, at least rhetorically, and at any time they only need to catch a break or two to be back in power, at least somewhere.
And in truth it has been that way for 25 years or so, at least. But it doesn’t have to be that way of necessity, and it’s not heading that way now.
As a parenthetical, I think it’s important to differentiate between 2022 and 2024, because imo the Demos are in a much different position from one cycle to the next. For this cycle it’s baked in the cake, the voters have made up their mind, in fact been made up for a while, and they’re just simply going to ignore whatever the Demos try to sell them. This has been pretty clearly demonstrated by Ukraine. Biden and the Demos are gifted a big issue, completely dominating our narrative, where Biden’s actions and been reasonably popular and theoretically ought to get the benefit of a rally round the flag effect. But look at what’s happened: Biden gained two points worth of job approval and then lost them straight back again. The voters are completely capable to say, “Demos, you’re good with Ukraine but I’m still going to vote against you anyway.”
2024 is much different. After Demos take a beating in 2022 there’s some catharsis, and voters will have an open mind if Demos want to avail themselves to use it.
In any event, I’m glad you commented, because you in particular were one of the sort of people I was thinking about about. Let’s suppose that after the 2024 cycle, GOP has 63 Senators, 250 Congressmen, and Ron DeSantis is President (not at all a ridiculous hypothetical btw). To the extent you can answer, how are you going affiliate yourself in our political culture?
Are you going to be a dead-end Demo? Are you going to look for some Chris Sununu/Glenn Youngkin/Charlie Baker style Republicans to affiliate with? Are you going to ignore politics altogether? Will you join a third party/new party?Report
Koz, I think your point of view fails to take into account the whole “throw the bums out” phenomenon.
Like, when Republicans take power again (and they will), the first thing that they’ll do is screw it up. Like, with something stupid. Like, “we need to balance the budget and the best way to do that is to continue collecting social security, but to cease sending checks out to people who made less than $200,000 a year” stupid. “We want to go back to Afghanistan” stupid.
And then the Democrats will put up Cory Booker or somebody who will run on a “I am less stupid than *THAT*!” platform and he’ll win.Report
No, that’s actually kind of the point.
Ie, in your context, there will be too many “bums” to “throw out” by voting Demo, and so whoever wants to throw the bums out is going to be looking to support this Republican in order to get rid of that Republican.Report
While I agree that Republicans will solidly take the House in November and maybe even the Senate… I don’t know that they’ll do well in the House in 2024. (Though, yes, they’ll continue to do well in the Senate.)
And while I agree that whomever is running against DeSantis in 2024 will be fighting an uphill battle, it does *NOT* mean that 2026 won’t have the House wandering back to the Dems and 2028 is too far away to make any assumptions about at all.Report
They may not. The only thing that’s guaranteed after 2024 is that the GOP will control the Senate. It’s very possible that the GOP will lose the Presidency, lose seats in the House, or even lose control of the House.
2024 is imo the Last Chance Saloon for the Demos to assert themselves as a major party, and that could very well happen.
Though, this is obvious for me but I think maybe it isn’t necessarily for other commenters here: if we’re in the same message environment at this point of the 2024 cycle as we are now, the GOP will do well in 2024.
The point being, the message environment for 2024 is very much in flux, whereas for 2022 it no longer is.
This is all very possible, but the point is that it’s less like if the GOP has a good cycle in 2024. In that case, the GOP has usual avenues of lib/Demo activism stopped and backstopped enough ways to where the political energy to oppose the GOP will come from competing factions of the GOP.Report
But this is an argument that the pendulum swings.
Hey! It does!
But that says nothing about, let me copy and paste this, “There is nothing at all to guarantee that the Democratic Party will still exist in a meaningful way in 5-10 years.”
Dude.
The Democratic Party will still exist in a meaningful way in 5-10 years.
Seriously.
The only thing that *MIGHT* be different is that they’ll kick this or that minority group (defined as 2% or thereabouts) to the curb.Report
No it’s just the opposite actually.
It’s an argument that says that, according to gravity, objects that are thrown into the air end up returning to the earth.
Most Of The Time. But is also such a thing as escape velocity. That says, also according to gravity, that objects with enough velocity, and an appropriate launch vector, don’t return to earth. Either they go into orbit, or leave the earth’s gravitational field altogether (as a practical matter).
In the context of politics, what I’m saying is that the GOP is flirting with escape velocity, and we’ll probably find out if they actually achieve it after the 2024 cycle.Report
If you’re betting on the competence of Republicans, let me try to get you to relax your assumptions now.
They’re going to Eff it up.
They’re going to Eff it up in a way that will be so comprehensive that it is funny.
Like, someone will say “Holy crap… That’s *BIBLICAL*” and they’ll be accurate.Report
Jaybird, this has nothing to do with the price of tea in China and basically makes no sense.Report
Remember when you said this? (Let me copy/paste it):
Let me copy/paste what *I* said:
And here we are.
More sense or nah?Report
Nah. On the merits you’re probably wrong. There is reason to think the GOP will become unpopular once they gain power, but no reason to think such a thing is guaranteed, let alone on a *~BIBLICAL~* scale.
But more important, 2024 is not going to be a GOP competence election anyway, and if GOP gets escape velocity, that’s when they’re going to get it.Report
There is reason to think the GOP will become unpopular once they gain power, but no reason to think such a thing is guaranteed, let alone on a *~BIBLICAL~* scale.
It’s because of what they will do with the power, Koz.
It’s not like they’ll pass a Big Infrastructure Bill that will result in better bridges and more bike lanes downtown.
It’s that they’ll get power, pass a tax cut, and do nothing else worth mentioning. They won’t be Democrats, and that’ll be enough to get them to power, but they will soon demonstrate that they don’t deserve to keep it.Report
In 2024, the GOP won’t be passing anything, they’ll be blaiming Biden for inflation, Afghanistan and CRT.
After that, they still won’t be passing a tax cut, they’ll probably be passing more likely to be passing Don’t Say Gay stuff (in both cases extrapolating from today, which of course is not very accurate).Report
Heh, even assuming that extreme of an outcome the only thing the the current GOP has shown itself capable of with such an electoral majority would be deficit financed tax cuts for the wealthy and, maybe, an expensive little war somewhere. Otherwise they’d flail around impotently for 2 years and then get landslided out of their majorities in short order. Especially considering that McConnell is likely going to be out of the picture one way or the other in not a terribly long time.Report
Assuming they let their be fair electionsReport
I think we should assume that all future elections are compromised.
Just to be sure.Report
Elections are administered, by and large, at the state level and the action at the federal level is pretty easy to block. Maybe we’ll start paying more attention to sub federal level elections- that’d be a good idea.Report
Which is where a lot of voter suppression action is happening. I have no idea why you are unshakeably blase about everything.Report
I consider it more useful than unproductive, frenetic panic.
And, yes, agreed the Dems and left should probably pay a LOT more attention to more state and local races.Report
I think you’re misunderstanding the Trump and post-Trump thematic priorities of the GOP.
A big part of which is the fact that Trump is a spent force, politically. The DeSantis Administration, if it exists, will look much different.Report
Trump is a spent force politically? Don’t say stuff like that, I don’t know if I want him proving you wrong for another couple cycles!Report
Yeah, that’s been obvious to me for a while now. Though tbh, political people I respect haven’t seen it this way. Nonetheless, as time passes it’s becoming more and more clear.Report
We’ll know by 2023 or so I imagine- both if Trump remains a factor and if Trumpkins stay in play absent Trump.Report
I think the Trump supporters are still with the GOP with or without Trump, I think that’s been pretty clear so far since Biden has taken office.
As far as Trump himself goes, really the only thing he can do is run for office again. And my guess is he won’t. Not so much that he would lose, but even before then, I don’t think he can handle the ego loss of having to campaign for the nomination again.Report
To put it in language that Vance could understand, blaming people of color for white people’s dysfunctions are as old as them thar hills. As is the proposition that America’s racism problem is that good white people sometimes get called racists.
On the other hand, everything must be great if these guys can afford to put on this white minstrel show instead of addressing meaningful policy issues. That is good news for the people of Ohio.Report
Vance has a terrific family: a smart, tough, telegenic wife and two adorable little boys. For some reason, I haven’t seen them in any of his campaign ads.Report
There are folks online who are part of the base Vance is pandering to that let him know what they think of his family in rather vile waysReport
And you would think this would teach him something and yet….Report
Whoa, wait, his family isn’t white and you guys are still accusing him of being a racist?Report
We’re judging him on the content of his character, not the color of his wife’s skin.Report
Now do Strom Thurmond.Report
Show your work where I called him a racistReport
You’re right, you didn’t. I said “you guys” instead of naming names. I think the comment about him pandering to racists is a bit much, but you didn’t call him a racist.Report
Always gonna be a few chickens lining up to join the Colonel Sanders Fan Club.
And it is so very unsurprising Vance is one of them.Report
Pause the Mandel ad at 0:11. Just for laffs.Report