JD Vance, Josh Mandel Put The Race Into Ohio Senate Race

Andrew Donaldson

Born and raised in West Virginia, Andrew has since lived and traveled around the world several times over. Though frequently writing about politics out of a sense of duty and love of country, most of the time he would prefer discussions on history, culture, occasionally nerding on aviation, and his amateur foodie tendencies. He can usually be found misspelling/misusing words on Twitter @four4thefire and his food writing website Yonder and Home. Andrew is the host of Heard Tell podcast. Subscribe to Andrew's Heard Tell SubStack for free here:

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58 Responses

  1. Chip Daniels says:

    The most popular theme in Republican circles today is trolling, or vice signalling where they strive to assure the base that they hate the outgroup every bit as much as the base.
    A few years ago the panic was Sharia Law where states and municipalities passed laws defiantly vowing to never allow it, then it was border caravans and immigrants, then it was critical race theory, now it is gay and trans people.

    The object of the Two Minute Hate changes but the message is always the same- THEY are the Enemy, THEY are coming for your children, and THEY are not legitimate holders of power, or co-equal citizens deserving of fair treatment.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to Chip Daniels says:

      There is a part of me that hopes the Democrats manage to maintain the Senate majority because of various GOP clown car primaries and 2022 becomes the year of the GOP AIkening itself writ large. The Missouri GOP Senate primaries are also a Trumpian clown car as far as I can tell. This is probably going on in other places as well.

      However, there is also another part of me that despairs that all of this primary clown car stuff will be memory holed and that it will be impossible to get general election voters to pay attention to this kind of stuff. Despite record levels of employment and an economy that is booming, American’s seem to be a grumpy lot. The GOP is super-animated and the Democrats seem unanimated for a variety of reasons. Some of this is traditional (thermostatic voting predates both of us). Other parts are because low-info Democrats think the Trump threat is gone. Some Democrats are upset at Biden not doing all the things (he did a lot of the things). Others dislike that the solution to getting rid of Manchin and Sinema is vote harder.Report

  2. Saul Degraw says:

    Most of the polling I have seen indicates that Gibbons and Mandel are leading the primary and Vance is a distant somewhere. As far as I know Gibbons has been avoiding the fire-breather stuff but could still believe in it. The latest polling (which is a month old) has Gibbons at 22 percent and Mandel at 20 percent.Report

  3. fillyjonk says:

    1. Seems to me Ohio politics has gotten far weirder since I left the state in 1989. Then again – most of the time I was there I was a kid so I doubt I’d have noticed much. Then again, maybe politics have gotten weirder and worse almost everywhere recently, compared to how they were 30-40 years ago?

    2. I saw the opening photo before I saw the caption and I was immediately “LOL Cuyahoga.” The river that caught fire a few months after I was born! It’s a lot cleaner now but yeah, I remember people saying not to eat the fish from it (if there even WERE fish in sections of it). It’s one of my examples in the Policy and Law class.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to fillyjonk says:

      I understand that outside of the navigation channel stretch with heavy ship traffic the Cuyahoga has a reasonably thriving fish population, and meets recreational water standards except when it rains heavily and the combined sewer system overflows.

      Cleveland signed a consent decree with the federal EPA to remediate the sewer problems. Water and sewer bills in the city have roughly doubled over the last 10 years, with the prospect of further increases. Current cost estimate is $3B, increasing from time to time.

      As I recall, the projected cost to reduce combined sewer overflows to 10% of the current volume in the states that make up the expanded Rust Belt is something over a trillion dollars.Report

  4. LeeEsq says:

    JD Vance remains behind the times. Mexican hate is so 2016. Now it is transpeople who are supposed to be the object of the five minute hate.Report

  5. North says:

    Is Ohio even considered a swing state any more? It seems more lightly red than anything to me.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to North says:

      Lists I’ve seen often use Ohio and Colorado as examples of states that used to be swing states, but are now considered reliably Republican and Democratic respectively, at least at the Presidential level. See also my comment to JB yesterday.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to North says:

      Ohio is fairly red these days. The big issue is whether they are solidly red enough that they have rendered the state Aiken-proof. So far Gibbons seems to have a small lead and this is probably the safest option for the GOP because he seems to be able to put himself above the fray as Mandel and Vance out freak each other. Ryan might still be able to beat Gibbons but it is a harder fight especially in a year that is poised to be good for Republicans. However if Mandel manages to win the primary, his clown antics provide ample ammo for the general campaign. Same with Vance.

      This is one area where I think Democratic voters are less than strategic. We have a hard time dealing with the idea that there will always be deep red districts and states that elect people we hate. So doomed candidates like McGrath and anyone going up against MTG get tons of cash that ends up being a wasted resource. Ohio is not here yet and Senate races should always be taken seriously but I wish Democratic voters were able to resist the siren song of donating to Democratic challengers in R plus 25 districts.Report

  6. pillsy says:

    “Are you a racist?

    “Because I sure as hell am, and I’m gonna prove it by making a political ad about the Great Replacement!”Report

    • Pinky in reply to pillsy says:

      You’re just making his point.Report

      • CJColucci in reply to Pinky says:

        It was Vance’s ad, not pillsy’s.
        Sometimes a thing is just true.Report

      • pillsy in reply to Pinky says:

        Well in a sense I am, because that’s exactly how dogwhistles are supposed to work.

        You say something that racists and libs will both recognize as racist, but that normies won’t.

        The racists get fired up that you’re on your side.

        The libs get mad and point out you’re a racist.

        Then you turn to the normies and say, “These mean libs are calling me a racist over nothing!”Report

  7. Burt Likko says:

    Ye cats can they all lose somehow? I guess in there general election someone’s got to lose…

    So speaking of which, Dr. Amy Acton dropped out today. Too bad for Ohio Democrats, because there were hints she polled better than Ryan, but those sorts of early polls are often evanescent and she’s out of the race anyway so they’re now moot. So we are assuming Tim Ryan will win the Democratic primary in a walk? Does Morgan Harper have any chance in the primary at all?

    Alas, Ohio is a reddening state that Trump won by eight points in ’20. But take heart, comrades! Sherrod Brown won re-election in ’18 by seven points… as an incumbent. Still, maybe it isn’t completely hopeless for a Democrat after all!Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to Burt Likko says:

      2018 is interesting because it was a Democratic wave year and Brown was reelected as you note but De Wine easily won the governorship.Report

    • Jesse in reply to Burt Likko says:

      Unfortunately, David Shor has shown w/ 2020 turnout, Sherrod Brown would’ve lost in 2020.

      The bad news is Sherrod Brown will no longer be a Senator in 2023. The good news is, he’ll be no longer an example for people stuck in the political past to say, “see, we don’t need any Joe Manchin, since Sherrod Brown won (in three straight Democratic friendly races)!” in Ohio!Report

    • Koz in reply to Burt Likko says:

      Alas, Ohio is a reddening state that Trump won by eight points in ’20. But take heart, comrades! Sherrod Brown won re-election in ’18 by seven points… as an incumbent. Still, maybe it isn’t completely hopeless for a Democrat after all!

      None of it is going to matter. GOP will win the seat no matter who gets nominated.

      As of now, and basically for the last year, there’s two fixed stars in the American political firmament: GOP will control the House after the 2022 cycle, and GOP will control the Senate after the 2024 cycle. What’s not known is the overall trajectory of the parties starting the 2024 cycle and thereafter.

      We’ve gotten used to the idea that the two major parties are roughly in balance, for most of us it’s difficult to imagine the idea that it could be any other way. But it absolutely can. There is nothing at all to guarantee that the Democratic Party will still exist in a meaningful way in 5-10 years. IMO this will largely be a function of the 2024 Presidential election and the Dems will have some very important and very difficult decisions to make in that cycle as to what they want to be and who they want to represent.Report

      • Burt Likko in reply to Koz says:

        I recall hearing about the imminent annihilation of the Republican Party after 2008. And again after 2012. I put as much stock in portents of the imminent annihilation of the Democratic Party after 2024.

        Agreed that it is possible for one party to be dominant over the other. And agreed further that for a while, the congruence of rural areas with conservative political sentiments does, and will continue to, give Republicans an advantage in the Senate and the Electoral College. Which is the root reason why Republicans resist calls to reform those institutions (and why Democrats periodically float them).

        I guess what I’m saying is, even if things go well for Republicans in ’22 and ’24 as expected… don’t get cocky. The worm always turns.Report

        • Koz in reply to Burt Likko says:

          I recall hearing about the imminent annihilation of the Republican Party after 2008. And again after 2012. I put as much stock in portents of the imminent annihilation of the Democratic Party after 2024.

          Yeah, yeah that could be true, but the flip side is also true and for me at least much more interesting, mostly because I don’t think very much of our political culture has internalized it yet. The Left especially, but also our team for that matter.

          Ie, libs understand that they might lose any particular election, but still they take for granted that they’ll always at least have a seat at the table, at least rhetorically, and at any time they only need to catch a break or two to be back in power, at least somewhere.

          And in truth it has been that way for 25 years or so, at least. But it doesn’t have to be that way of necessity, and it’s not heading that way now.

          As a parenthetical, I think it’s important to differentiate between 2022 and 2024, because imo the Demos are in a much different position from one cycle to the next. For this cycle it’s baked in the cake, the voters have made up their mind, in fact been made up for a while, and they’re just simply going to ignore whatever the Demos try to sell them. This has been pretty clearly demonstrated by Ukraine. Biden and the Demos are gifted a big issue, completely dominating our narrative, where Biden’s actions and been reasonably popular and theoretically ought to get the benefit of a rally round the flag effect. But look at what’s happened: Biden gained two points worth of job approval and then lost them straight back again. The voters are completely capable to say, “Demos, you’re good with Ukraine but I’m still going to vote against you anyway.”

          2024 is much different. After Demos take a beating in 2022 there’s some catharsis, and voters will have an open mind if Demos want to avail themselves to use it.

          In any event, I’m glad you commented, because you in particular were one of the sort of people I was thinking about about. Let’s suppose that after the 2024 cycle, GOP has 63 Senators, 250 Congressmen, and Ron DeSantis is President (not at all a ridiculous hypothetical btw). To the extent you can answer, how are you going affiliate yourself in our political culture?

          Are you going to be a dead-end Demo? Are you going to look for some Chris Sununu/Glenn Youngkin/Charlie Baker style Republicans to affiliate with? Are you going to ignore politics altogether? Will you join a third party/new party?Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Koz says:

            Koz, I think your point of view fails to take into account the whole “throw the bums out” phenomenon.

            Like, when Republicans take power again (and they will), the first thing that they’ll do is screw it up. Like, with something stupid. Like, “we need to balance the budget and the best way to do that is to continue collecting social security, but to cease sending checks out to people who made less than $200,000 a year” stupid. “We want to go back to Afghanistan” stupid.

            And then the Democrats will put up Cory Booker or somebody who will run on a “I am less stupid than *THAT*!” platform and he’ll win.Report

            • Koz in reply to Jaybird says:

              Koz, I think your point of view fails to take into account the whole “throw the bums out” phenomenon.

              No, that’s actually kind of the point.

              Ie, in your context, there will be too many “bums” to “throw out” by voting Demo, and so whoever wants to throw the bums out is going to be looking to support this Republican in order to get rid of that Republican.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Koz says:

                While I agree that Republicans will solidly take the House in November and maybe even the Senate… I don’t know that they’ll do well in the House in 2024. (Though, yes, they’ll continue to do well in the Senate.)

                And while I agree that whomever is running against DeSantis in 2024 will be fighting an uphill battle, it does *NOT* mean that 2026 won’t have the House wandering back to the Dems and 2028 is too far away to make any assumptions about at all.Report

              • Koz in reply to Jaybird says:

                While I agree that Republicans will solidly take the House in November and maybe even the Senate… I don’t know that they’ll do well in the House in 2024. (Though, yes, they’ll continue to do well in the Senate.)

                They may not. The only thing that’s guaranteed after 2024 is that the GOP will control the Senate. It’s very possible that the GOP will lose the Presidency, lose seats in the House, or even lose control of the House.

                2024 is imo the Last Chance Saloon for the Demos to assert themselves as a major party, and that could very well happen.

                Though, this is obvious for me but I think maybe it isn’t necessarily for other commenters here: if we’re in the same message environment at this point of the 2024 cycle as we are now, the GOP will do well in 2024.

                The point being, the message environment for 2024 is very much in flux, whereas for 2022 it no longer is.

                And while I agree that whomever is running against DeSantis in 2024 will be fighting an uphill battle, it does *NOT* mean that 2026 won’t have the House wandering back to the Dems and 2028 is too far away to make any assumptions about at all.

                This is all very possible, but the point is that it’s less like if the GOP has a good cycle in 2024. In that case, the GOP has usual avenues of lib/Demo activism stopped and backstopped enough ways to where the political energy to oppose the GOP will come from competing factions of the GOP.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Koz says:

                But this is an argument that the pendulum swings.

                Hey! It does!

                But that says nothing about, let me copy and paste this, “There is nothing at all to guarantee that the Democratic Party will still exist in a meaningful way in 5-10 years.”

                Dude.

                The Democratic Party will still exist in a meaningful way in 5-10 years.

                Seriously.

                The only thing that *MIGHT* be different is that they’ll kick this or that minority group (defined as 2% or thereabouts) to the curb.Report

              • Koz in reply to Jaybird says:

                But this is an argument that the pendulum swings.

                No it’s just the opposite actually.

                It’s an argument that says that, according to gravity, objects that are thrown into the air end up returning to the earth.

                Most Of The Time. But is also such a thing as escape velocity. That says, also according to gravity, that objects with enough velocity, and an appropriate launch vector, don’t return to earth. Either they go into orbit, or leave the earth’s gravitational field altogether (as a practical matter).

                In the context of politics, what I’m saying is that the GOP is flirting with escape velocity, and we’ll probably find out if they actually achieve it after the 2024 cycle.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Koz says:

                If you’re betting on the competence of Republicans, let me try to get you to relax your assumptions now.

                They’re going to Eff it up.

                They’re going to Eff it up in a way that will be so comprehensive that it is funny.

                Like, someone will say “Holy crap… That’s *BIBLICAL*” and they’ll be accurate.Report

              • Koz in reply to Jaybird says:

                Jaybird, this has nothing to do with the price of tea in China and basically makes no sense.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Koz says:

                Remember when you said this? (Let me copy/paste it):

                In the context of politics, what I’m saying is that the GOP is flirting with escape velocity, and we’ll probably find out if they actually achieve it after the 2024 cycle.

                Let me copy/paste what *I* said:

                If you’re betting on the competence of Republicans, let me try to get you to relax your assumptions now.

                And here we are.

                More sense or nah?Report

              • Koz in reply to Jaybird says:

                More sense or nah?

                Nah. On the merits you’re probably wrong. There is reason to think the GOP will become unpopular once they gain power, but no reason to think such a thing is guaranteed, let alone on a *~BIBLICAL~* scale.

                But more important, 2024 is not going to be a GOP competence election anyway, and if GOP gets escape velocity, that’s when they’re going to get it.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Koz says:

                There is reason to think the GOP will become unpopular once they gain power, but no reason to think such a thing is guaranteed, let alone on a *~BIBLICAL~* scale.

                It’s because of what they will do with the power, Koz.

                It’s not like they’ll pass a Big Infrastructure Bill that will result in better bridges and more bike lanes downtown.

                It’s that they’ll get power, pass a tax cut, and do nothing else worth mentioning. They won’t be Democrats, and that’ll be enough to get them to power, but they will soon demonstrate that they don’t deserve to keep it.Report

              • Koz in reply to Jaybird says:

                It’s not like they’ll pass a Big Infrastructure Bill that will result in better bridges and more bike lanes downtown.

                In 2024, the GOP won’t be passing anything, they’ll be blaiming Biden for inflation, Afghanistan and CRT.

                After that, they still won’t be passing a tax cut, they’ll probably be passing more likely to be passing Don’t Say Gay stuff (in both cases extrapolating from today, which of course is not very accurate).Report

          • North in reply to Koz says:

            Heh, even assuming that extreme of an outcome the only thing the the current GOP has shown itself capable of with such an electoral majority would be deficit financed tax cuts for the wealthy and, maybe, an expensive little war somewhere. Otherwise they’d flail around impotently for 2 years and then get landslided out of their majorities in short order. Especially considering that McConnell is likely going to be out of the picture one way or the other in not a terribly long time.Report

            • Saul Degraw in reply to North says:

              Assuming they let their be fair electionsReport

            • Koz in reply to North says:

              I think you’re misunderstanding the Trump and post-Trump thematic priorities of the GOP.

              A big part of which is the fact that Trump is a spent force, politically. The DeSantis Administration, if it exists, will look much different.Report

              • North in reply to Koz says:

                Trump is a spent force politically? Don’t say stuff like that, I don’t know if I want him proving you wrong for another couple cycles!Report

              • Koz in reply to North says:

                Yeah, that’s been obvious to me for a while now. Though tbh, political people I respect haven’t seen it this way. Nonetheless, as time passes it’s becoming more and more clear.Report

              • North in reply to Koz says:

                We’ll know by 2023 or so I imagine- both if Trump remains a factor and if Trumpkins stay in play absent Trump.Report

              • Koz in reply to North says:

                I think the Trump supporters are still with the GOP with or without Trump, I think that’s been pretty clear so far since Biden has taken office.

                As far as Trump himself goes, really the only thing he can do is run for office again. And my guess is he won’t. Not so much that he would lose, but even before then, I don’t think he can handle the ego loss of having to campaign for the nomination again.Report

  8. j r says:

    To put it in language that Vance could understand, blaming people of color for white people’s dysfunctions are as old as them thar hills. As is the proposition that America’s racism problem is that good white people sometimes get called racists.

    On the other hand, everything must be great if these guys can afford to put on this white minstrel show instead of addressing meaningful policy issues. That is good news for the people of Ohio.Report

  9. Vance has a terrific family: a smart, tough, telegenic wife and two adorable little boys. For some reason, I haven’t seen them in any of his campaign ads.Report

  10. Rufus F. says:

    Pause the Mandel ad at 0:11. Just for laffs.Report