To Break Our Addiction To Oil

Maura Alwyen

HVAC/R Master Craftsman, Chef, Woodworker, Journeyman Metalworker, somewhat of a Blacksmith, & Author I do my own stunts & cinematography. Typos, poor word choices, wrong but similar sounding word choices are par for the course. All mistakes are artisanally crafted from the finest oopsies. Otherwise I'm just a regular girl with opinions and a point from which to shout into the void.

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65 Responses

  1. Oscar Gordon says:

    Just woke up, haven’t parsed it all yet, but…

    Electric aviation can handle short haul flights.Report

  2. Chip Daniels says:

    I’m slowly coming around on nuclear energy.

    I still think its risky for all the reasons exhaustively documented, but I’m thinking that the dangers of global warming outweigh the dangers of nuclear power.Report

    • I’m right with you on this. I’ve taken to looking at the issue from the position of how many plants have had no issues around the world as opposed to Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi. The big issue as always though is what to do with the waste nuclear creates.
      From what I’ve seen fusion is getting closer but who knows how long before that is commercially viable.Report

      • Dark Matter in reply to Maura Alwyen says:

        The big issue as always though is what to do with the waste nuclear creates.

        This is a political issue, not an engineering issue. Engineers have solutions, they’re not allowed to implement them.Report

        • North in reply to Dark Matter says:

          Exactly. Permit nuclear reprocessing and your waste problem drops by a factor of ten. If you really are fretful about what you have left then dilute it into glass bricks and bury them in a tectonic subduction zone.Report

    • The biggest problem facing nuclear right now is that the construction costs are at or above $8B per GW, and the construction time is eight years or more. If Vogtle 3 and 4 are an indication, we have to build an entire industry capable of producing nuclear power plants at a high rate basically from scratch.

      Chip and I (and Oscar, above) live in the Western Interconnect portion of the US. There’s a lot in the existing literature to make it reasonable to conclude that region can get to a no-carbon grid based on overbuilding renewables, storage, and some bulk transmission capacity for significantly less than $8B per GW. Eg, the power authority that generates my electricity already has stretches when more than 50% of the delivered power is from renewables (as I type this 55% from wind, hydro, and solar). The Eastern Interconnect is a much harder problem. Texas is different, and I won’t guess whether it’s harder or easier.Report

      • Oscar Gordon in reply to Michael Cain says:

        I am officially unemployed at the end of March, and I have something of a backlog of tech posts I’ve been itching to get out once I’m not having time sucked up by work and school and everything else.Report

      • North in reply to Michael Cain says:

        I am pretty persuaded that the Western Interconnect can power itself mostly on renewables but the eastern interconnect seems made for nuclear: tectonically stable, lots of water and lots of density.Report

  3. Damon says:

    Talk to me when battery technology improves. The more the battery is charged the faster it wears out, and replacing a batter in an electric cars can costs thousands of dollars. Depending on where you live, like in the cold north, or if you have a garage, or if you recharge it an fast chargers a lot, you batter life will be significantly impacted. Maybe as soon as 5-7 years. On a cost basis and lifetime duration, gas and diesel cars are FAR more favorable, and it doesn’t take hours to charge the battery.

    .Report

    • InMD in reply to Damon says:

      Modern consumer EVs are barely a decade old enterprise. The combustion engine version has had over a century. Will there be some trade offs? Of course. But it’s not like gas engine vehicles are a panacea. After the warranty period costs start to acrew and you’re in a perpetual inner debate about how much money you’re willing to put into an asset with declining value and where every mile puts you closer towards something pricey crapping out. There’s no reason to expect the tech won’t improve on EVs and a lot of reason to think that even if we’re replacing batteries that the simpler design will drive down other maintenance costs.Report

      • Damon in reply to InMD says:

        Yes, but EVs are being pushed NOW and they aren’t ready for prime time. The infrastructure doesn’t exist to charge all the cars in existence now if there were magically converted to ev. We do have the infrastructure to support high efficiency diesel, which could be used as a stop gap, but that doesn’t get contractors lots of choice new jobs to bid on (and the associated pay offs for the politicians, etc.)Report

        • InMD in reply to Damon says:

          I had a long conversation about this with a mechanic I know who works at a VW dealership. His take was that existing EVs are perfectly suitable for daily driver, city cars, and as best he can tell the maintenance is a wash. But yes, that assumes sufficient charging infrastructure to support them.

          What he said is ‘not quite there yet’ was your SUV you’re going to use for a 250+ mile drive, fully packed, with a family of 4+. Your realistic range will suffer and you will have issues with mid-trip charging. So wait awhile on those but there’s no reason not to start switching out sedans that spend their lives doing local driving and not much else.Report

          • Damon in reply to InMD says:

            Sure, if you’re driving short distances in the city or doing routine shopping in suburbs, sure. But it doesn’t work where I live as a primary car. I live in a large metro area where a commute of 30-60 mins each way is routine. Mass transit 1) sucks and 2) doesn’t go east west-just north south.) I don’t have a garage to charge my plug in car either. Most townhouses, condos, and such in this area don’t have garages or carports. For that, you gotta have a 1.4 acre SFH, and those run 600k-1M. And I’m going to mention the cold weather that further erodes battery life and charges.Report

            • InMD in reply to Damon says:

              I mean, in that case it sounds like they aren’t for you, at least not right now. I just object to the idea that they aren’t for anybody. My guess is we’re probably two decades away from being close to total fleet swap out. It will be a gradual process that won’t immediately make sense for everyone but you have to start somewhere.Report

              • Philip H in reply to InMD says:

                When we see the corporate fleets – like UPS, Fed Ex and USPS – finishing the electric transition, then we will know the game is on.Report

              • InMD in reply to Philip H says:

                I think that’s right. From what I have read we will start seeing UPS electric delivery vans in service in the next year or two.

                The changes are coming. It’s all really a question of how hard we’re willing to put our fingers on the scale with public resources to speed it up.Report

              • Philip H in reply to InMD says:

                When I went to Fairbanks, AK for the first time in 2010, I became a firm believer in the all electric transportation sector. Why, you ask? Because every public parking spot, and most private business parking spots – had a 110 outlet to plug in a block heater so vehicle engines wouldn’t freeze in the winter. It was, so my hotelier told me, city code. My conclusion was that if that could be done, then charging for EVs wasn’t an engineering problem. I have yet to see any data contradicting that conclusion.Report

              • InMD in reply to Philip H says:

                Oh it’s definitely doable. To me the challenge is less getting charging stations out and more making sure the grid has the capacity to support it. And obviously you want it to be a clean grid, it’s not doing much for us to charge cars with coal fired plants.Report

            • Michael Cain in reply to Damon says:

              Nationwide, maybe 75% of trips can be served by today’s electric cars, accounting for all of range, charging, etc. There are known paths to no/low carbon electricity generation. No other available technology can make those claims.

              I occasionally remark to Oscar Gordon that it’s as much a public perception problem as anything. Yesterday I watched Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. I noticed that when the huge bad-ass Romanian with a magic machete for a right hand exclaims, “That’s my car [they’re stealing]!” he’s talking about an electric SUV.Report

              • Damon in reply to Michael Cain says:

                But it’s not “just trips” that matter. Let’s take a more “concrete example”. I live in a townhouse with a cull de sac. Assigned parking that is community property. 1/2 of the houses have covered parking, the rest exposed. To charge an electric vehicle, i’d have to install an underground cable and charging station at my assigned parking. A trench to install the cable underground will be dug, and the sidewalk next to my car will be torn up and a charger installed. Since the only sidewalk is IN FRONT of the space, I guess there will have to be an extra-long charging “arm”. That’s gonna cost me several thousand dollars, ASSUMING I get approval from the HOA to do the work, a BIG if. Let’s assume they agree. Note, this is not a unique situation. Where I live this is the NORM unless you have a single family home.

                So when I drive my new electric car, in the mid Atlantic cold of 15 degrees, 40 miles to work, and leave it in a parking lot outside my office of @ 300 spaces, is each space a charging station? If so, who paid the 300K to install the chargers (assuming 1k per charging station for discounts vs the 2K above). The REIT that built the office park 20 years ago? The current tenants? The county, the state? Me? If there is no charging station, I’ll leave my car in 15-degree weather for 10 hours while in the office and the battery will be discharging all day to keep the battery warm so it doesn’t brick. Then I drive home another 40 miles, change and then go back out for class, where the car sits again for 2 more hours before I come home for the day. The car needs to be charged up fully 8 hours later to do the whole thing over again. Now let’s call it summer and the temps outside are 98 degrees in the shade and 110 on the parking lots. Battery is cooling itself so to not explode. Assuming the car doesn’t run out of juice in the above on day one or two or three, how does all this draining and charging impact the lifespan of the batter vs the above 10 year estimate? I’m thinking it’s gonna be a large impact and I’m going to be swapping out the batter a lot sooner than 10 years, so the above calculation could be off and I may need a batter in 5 years. Or I could just keep my diesel, which cost me less than 10K, that gets 40 mpg in mixed driving, and which I only need to fill up weekly, which takes 5 minutes. That’s my math.Report

              • Michael Cain in reply to Damon says:

                If/when developed countries decide to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, there’s one approach that’s going to have to do the heavy lifting: electrify everything and clean up the grid. If/when that decision is made, the necessary capital improvements for transportation — charging infrastructure, covered parking spaces, whatever — will be built (over 20-30 years).

                It’s entirely possible that the US will never make that decision. One of our two major political parties is opposed to it. On Feb 28, we’ll hear oral arguments on the group of cases that may result in SCOTUS holding that the federal government lacks the authority to make such a decision.Report

  4. DavidTC says:

    We do need to invest in our rail system; we do NOT need a government intervention for this. Is high speed rail something we should be looking toward? Maybe. Do we need an all in big government spending spree to do it? No.

    We give tax breaks to so many industries it is absurd, so why not incentivize the rail industry to move people?

    …conservatives are weird.

    “Should the government just directly do a thing? No, that would cost too much! Instead, what the government should do is subsidize private industry so they can make a profit doing this thing, which will somehow be cheaper despite doing the same thing _and_ now having a profit come out of it.”

    Of course, in some hypothetical universe where there is plenty of unused rail capacity owned by the railroads, it might _hypothetically_ be cheaper for them to use it than for us to rent it. Although I have no idea why that would be…them deciding to let rail capacity sit empty instead of renting it out is kinda stupid.

    The problem is: Rail capacity is, and has been for years, at a straining point. (Except very very recently, when international shipping has gotten so screwed up that rail capacity sometimes ends up with surplus capacity.)

    A lot of this is because running freight and passenger trains on the same line is stupid. You have to way overbuild the lines you need for passenger trains, and you need a much more regular schedule for them, and you can’t just take the trains out of service…and you have to get the passengers out of them first. (I.e., if you’ve got a train full of lumber halfway somewhere, you can stick it in a siding for two days if you need to. You can’t really do that with a train of people.)

    The entire system would work infinitely better with separate tracks for both, and that is what other countries generally do. (Or just have a _lot_ more capacity.)

    So, to ‘subsidize’ the train companies to move passengers, we’d basically just have to pay for them to build entirely new lines, and if we’re going to do that _that_, we might as well have them government-owned. Or we don’t do that, we just pay them so much we start outbidding shipping, and completely screw ourselves over by making permanent the same supply chain issues we’re having temporarily.

    Also ‘They already have rail right of ways & connections to equipment makers.’ is…not right. Firstly, right of ways are not an issue for the government in a large amount of cases (A lot of the right of ways are _for public land_, which the government obviously does not need.), and it can buy them from private landowners if it needs them…and also most existing railway easements owned by private companies that are would be useful are already in use. There’s not some huge amount of unused land with railroad easements on them, and where there is, it’s in completely useless places.

    Also…you do not need connections to buy trains. You do not buy trains via word of mouth transactions in alleys. And also the Federal government buys more passenger trains than, uh, freight shipping companies do. Cause of Amtrak.

    Speaking of Amtrak, almost all the complaints with that are…that it has random delays, and those delays are, in fact, due to the very people you want to build a new passenger system (Specifically, the rail managers prioritize other traffic), and the rails that it is being run over and the heavy load that system is under.

    The problems with existing passenger rail in this country is that it operates as an afterthought of the freight-shipping system…which is exactly why we _don’t_ need to hand them even more passengers. We need to instead build a different system.Report

    • Chip Daniels in reply to DavidTC says:

      Paraphrasing an old joke from the Soviet Union:

      Reagan, G.W. Bush, and Trump are on an Amtrak train, when it suddenly slows down and stops.

      Reagan cuts the engineer’s taxes to stimulate the free market, but nothing happens;

      Trump has a mob surround the conductor and threaten to kill him, but still, the train refuses to move;

      G.W. Bush gives Amtrak a gazillion dollar no-bid contract, and mutters “Lets just pretend it’s the free market.”Report

    • Philip H in reply to DavidTC says:

      PL 91-518, which created Amtrak, required railroads to allow Amtrak to use their services, facilities and track in exchange for being relieved of their common carrier obligations for passenger service. Railroads have been crying fowl ever since. Even now they are fighting tooth and nail to keep former routes from being restored:

      But why? Why are CSX and Norfolk Southern using the nuclear option for a single train on a small stretch of track between New Orleans and Mobile? A train that ran before 2005 without crippling their freight network.

      It’s because they see the public excitement for new passenger rail services, the dramatic bipartisan increase in funding for passenger trains, and they will finally be required to live up to the agreement they struck when Congress bailed them out by creating Amtrak. They worry that this case will establish a precedent. A precedent that will allow states to start new rail services in a fair and timely fashion.

      https://railpassengers.org/happening-now/news/blog/the-trouble-with-winning-csx-and-gulf-coast/Report

    • DensityDuck in reply to DavidTC says:

      all these words and no mention of Cal-HSR whose very existence is a continuing refutation of the idea that the government could simply Pass A Law and there’d be zoomy choo-choos going whoooooReport

      • DavidTC in reply to DensityDuck says:

        Um, no one’s talking about high-speed rail?

        Cal-HSR is what happens when you moronically design an existing huge system with unworkable constraints that has to be entirely finished to work at all, instead of just building more, dedicated tracks that existing passenger trains can generally drive on pretty quickly.

        If California had just sat down and said ‘We will run more passenger train service between LA and SF, starting with using existing tracks and slowly expanding by adding more tracks, owned by us, at places where the system slows down, with the intent of eventually having our own rail system dedicated to this’, there would be trains running up and down the coast at 60 mph, and the new rails are designed to run even higher speed so the system slowly creeps upward to 100 or so.

        Instead of Cal-HSR, a not-even-half-built system of magical 200 mph trains that is probably never going to be finished, because voters decided to vote for a really damn stupid proposition demanding near-impossible travel time and other constraints.

        Why is that, for some reason, everyone’s response to problems with auto traffic is more roads and more lanes, but no one seems to understand that the problem with trains, right now, and for the last half-century, has been ‘too much traffic’ and the solution is exactly the same? Built more lanes.

        Along doing with another thing common in highway design: Having a bunch of cheaper roads that heavy traffic isn’t allowed to go on…right now, every single rail line in ‘the system’ is capable of absurd loads, because they are built by people who are interested in shipping absurd loads over them. You can build them a lot cheaper when you don’t need to do that.

        There’s a reason that ‘light rail’ and ‘heavy rail’ aren’t the same thing, but basically all light rail in this country is operating in its own system, because there’s no point in making it compatible with or connecting to heavy rail…there’s nowhere to go.

        But you can build a cheaper light-rail lines that uses the exact same stuff as the rest of the system, and connects into it, and passenger trains go on it, and you can drive those passenger trains into the rest of the system…you just can’t drive heavy rail into the light rail system.Report

        • DavidTC in reply to DavidTC says:

          tl;dr – Right now, almost all complaints about trains, and the solution of ‘high speed trains’ is like people going ‘My car is too slow, it takes me an hour to go [place that is 30 miles away], I need to build a ROCKET POWERED car’.

          Um, no. Your car can go, like, 85 mph. It could get there in like 20 minutes.

          The ‘slowness’ is due to a combination of a) roads not going directly there, b) roads full of other cars, c) density of the area requiring traffic regulations.

          Some of these are fixable, some really aren’t. But the solution isn’t, under any sane circumstances, a ‘faster car’. To have a faster car get to there faster, you’d have to build an entire dedicated road just to drive it on, arching into the sky above everything, costing probably a billion dollars, and, congrats, you’ve reinvented high-speed rail!

          Or you could just add a damn lane of traffic, or build a highway, or fix some traffic issues by moving some of the traffic elsewhere, and make things generally better, and, look, it didn’t cost anywhere near that much and waste years as the state of California carefully tried to build the most absurd bridge ever made, which you couldn’t even use until it was completely finished.

          We literally never try the second goddamn thing there with rail. No one ever says ‘Hey, Amtrak is in pretty heavy traffic, maybe we need more rail lines to fix this’.Report

        • DensityDuck in reply to DavidTC says:

          “Um, no one’s talking about high-speed rail?”

          neither am I

          “Cal-HSR is what happens when you moronically design an existing huge system with unworkable constraints that has to be entirely finished to work at all, instead of just building more, dedicated tracks that existing passenger trains can generally drive on pretty quickly.”

          the whole idea behind Cal-HSR was that they’d build most of it in the desert where nobody cared about anything and the rest of the rights-of-way would just be taken via Eminent Domain actions

          which is

          what you proposedReport

          • DavidTC in reply to DensityDuck says:

            the whole idea behind Cal-HSR was that they’d build most of it in the desert where nobody cared about anything and the rest of the rights-of-way would just be taken via Eminent Domain actions

            Cal-HSR is a nonsensical entity that is not actually trying to get anything done whatsoever. They are basically not trying to build the rail system they are supposed to be doing.

            It’s nothing to do with any sort of _inability_ to do it. Land is seized via eminent domain all the time for all sorts of highway construction projects. The problem is that Cal-HSR is absurdly bad at what it does:
            https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-09-15/california-bullet-train-land-acquisition

            California’s bullet train project confronts an array of political and financial challenges, but its biggest problem involves mismanagement of land acquisitions, which has contributed to construction delays, cost increases, litigation and the launch of a federal audit.

            You see that word, ‘mismanagement’? I almost feel like I should quote the entire thing. Cal-HSR has been impossible bad at what they are doing, because they have reached a level of incompetence formerly unseen on this planet.

            I think this quote is perhaps relevant:

            “We are encountering gut-wrenching delays,” said one key manager with an extensive background in civil infrastructure projects. “Nowhere have I ever worked where I had to keep going back to the same owners for more land.”

            Meanwhile, and I point this out again: Existing Departments of Transportations are actually pretty good at everything Cal-HSR is horrifically bad at. They are very good at figuring out how much land they want (And certainly don’t constantly screw up _utilities, holy crap what stupidity.) and buying it. There’s not some reason that this can’t be done well.

            And in the end…the fun fact is, in the end, the plans have been modified so much that the ‘HSR’ will have to share some of its tracks with other trains, thus not really operating at HSV over that. It’s _not_ going to be grade-separated, at least not for a long time.

            So, exactly what I said…they’ll be fast over their own stuff, and sometimes slow down, and at that point I have to ask what the hell is the point of spending an absurd amount of money to make _part_ of it high speed? In fact, what’s the point of starting with massive construction instead of just starting BY RUNNING A WORKING TRAIN.

            A huge problem is that time requirements are insanely in the proposition that created the entire thing, Proposition 1A. Cal-HVS _must_ build a system that transports people from LA to SF in 2 hours and 40 minutes, and they can’t just start with one that does it in five hours and slowly, via building more track at bottlenecks, ratchet up the speed to somewhere around three and half. So they have to build their own entire separate system (Which is probably not going to get built), because Californians are stupid rich white liberals who thinks HSV is a Really Cool and Liberal Things that other countries do, whereas actually having functional trains at normal speed is something that poor people would use.

            Or to put it another way: All existing HSR systems, in countries where they work, were built by public rail entities with very long histories of building large rail systems and happened, basically, by slow technological and rail system advancement. They are the eventual evolution of a well-operated and competent rail system, you can’t just magic them into existence, especially by creating a brand-new agency to do them with literally no experience in rail systems.Report

            • DavidTC in reply to DavidTC says:

              California’s HSR really is the definitional ‘White Rich Liberal’ thing, when you look at it. A massive, cool-looking project that does not actually function for decades, if ever, designed to help out some middle-class people.

              Instead of going ‘We’re going to start running some trains, and build a new station or two’. Right now, there _isn’t_ a a train between LA and SF besides Amtrak. It takes about 12 hours and it is overbooked, and often has delays.

              Please note that I, _personally_, have from SF to LA, down the PCH, and it about half that time, and that’s from someone who was utterly unfamiliar with the road or California in general. That’s about half the time driving, it’s 381 miles by car. That train is running at about thirty miles an hour

              A normal person would ask ‘Hey, why are there so few trains, and also why are they running at 30 mph, and despite this absurdly slow speed there still aren’t tickets? And can we make this trip even vaguely workable for anyone? Cause right now they can’t even get tickets. Can we start expanding this system a bit…maybe have the state run some trains in addition to Amtrak, look at traffic bottlenecks?’.

              Instead, rich white Californian liberals went ‘Hey, let’s build a really fast train like the cool ones they have in Japan! Wheeeee! Have billions of dollars of tax money to throw away!’Report

    • John Puccio in reply to DavidTC says:

      If you believe the promise of driverless, electric technology will be realized, what’s the point of making massive investments in rail infrastructure for the purpose of moving people long distances?

      Personal transport and mass transit won’t need to be tethered to fixed rails. And it’s a hell of a lot easier and cheaper to build new roads than to build something as silly as this: https://hsr.ca.gov/high-speed-rail-in-california/Report

      • InMD in reply to John Puccio says:

        I have been to Europe and understand the train envy some people have but I think you’re right. It isn’t going to be viable in North America. The focus should be EV combined with using telework to just plain get as many people off the roads as possible during peak hours.Report

        • John Puccio in reply to InMD says:

          I think people, techies included, often have propensity to default to a 1950s version of the future. I laughed when the iWatch came out. iPhones killed the wrist watch and Apple thought they could bring them back? Because why? Nostalgia for Dick Tracy?

          The one that kills me is Elon Musk’s Hyperloop. The man is at the forefront of electric/driverless and he thinks shooting people through a pneumatic tube is going to be a thing? I have trouble believing he believes that. I think he is doing it because it’s cool and he can afford it and/or has gullible investors.Report

          • Dark Matter in reply to John Puccio says:

            Musk is building “will need to be used for Mars” technology and looking for ways to use it on the Earth. He thinks humanity needs to be on as many planets as possible or we’ll go extinct at some point.

            The surface of Mars is really bad, so we’ll need to live in tunnels, thus someone needs to make tunnel-making technology.

            Mars has little oxygen and no fossil fuels, thus we’ll need EV.

            To get to Mars requires space ships.

            For these technologies to survive and be developed they need to make money now, so he’s looking for problems to be fixed by his solutions.Report

            • Musk is playing 3D chess and here I am playing 2D checkers!

              That said, I think we will see people zipping around in pilotless passenger drones before a Hyperlink is transporting the general public between City A and City B.Report

            • Chip Daniels in reply to Dark Matter says:

              Space colonization based on this premise (That we will deplete Earth’s resources) always end up being self-defeating.

              If we had the requisite social organization and consensus to build and maintain say, a colony on Mars, we wouldn’t be in the position where we need to build a colony on Mars.

              The social organization needed to have a society where everything is recycled and resources are carefully husbanded and conserved, where there was a very high degree of cooperation and goodwill, would not be staffed by Earthlings.

              I love the idea of space colonization, but as time goes on I think that it just isn’t going to be feasible, ever. Any such colony will need to forever be connected by a long umbilical cord from Earth.Report

              • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Not if the colony invents the unfortunately named Epstein drive, and trades the technology to Earth for its independence.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Similar arguments could have been made about the original 13 colonies and they turned out fine.

                The social organization needed to have a society where everything is recycled and resources are carefully husbanded and conserved,

                You’d have an entire planet for resources.

                So that’s unlimited stone, (contaminated?) dirt, & waste disposal.

                You’d need a power source, and ideally you’d have some way to convert mars soil into earth soil and find water somewhere.

                It’s not an easy slog and I’d like to have robots go first and start it up. But in theory you make underground caves to hide from the radiation and bad air. You make smelters to turn the stone in metal. You power all of this with nuclear energy.

                If we can find some source of water underground then that’s water and oxygen.

                So this is not the “everything is recycled and resources are carefully husbanded and conserved” problem that space travel is.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Dark Matter says:

                No a similar argument couldn’t have been made.

                When the first European set foot in the America’s, there were millions of people already living and prospering here.

                There was unlimited free air, fresh running water, and food easily available.

                On an extraterrestrial environment all those things need to be manufactured and sustained in good working order for life to exist.

                Not impossible, but as hypothetical like The Expanse show, an environment where your air needs to be manufactured raises the stakes of even the most mundane political conflicts. There is no “somewhere else” for future Puritans to flee to.

                Again, not impossible but extraterrestrial environments will demand a degree of centralized command and control we have yet to achieve here on Easy Mode.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                We really should set up a base on the moon and nail down the various social issues. See if what you’re talking about is a problem or if it’s more “you need to pay $1 million to your air utility or you will be cut off”.Report

              • InMD in reply to Dark Matter says:

                On the Expanse the Martians are portrayed as having a much more Spartan culture. They also end up struggling to terraform because of the need to commit precious resources towards propping up a military edge.

                I think Chip is probably right that if we ever get there it will require an indefinite period of sustained supply and support from Earth before a colony could operate independently. Hell just getting a critical mass of people there to sustain a positive birth rate with sufficient genetic diversity could pose a lot of challenges.Report

              • DavidTC in reply to Dark Matter says:

                We really should set up a base on the moon and nail down the various social issues. See if what you’re talking about is a problem or if it’s more “you need to pay $1 million to your air utility or you will be cut off”.

                Someone needs to write, if it hasn’t already been done, a version of The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, except instead of the moon nominally being a prison colony under control of Earth government, it’s a company town under control of some Elon-esque Earth billionaire, with everything there fully owned by him.Report

              • Philip H in reply to DavidTC says:

                I believe that’s the recorded history of coal country in the US . . . and sharecropping down south . . . .Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to DavidTC says:

                Total Recall (1990) probably comes close.

                Moon (2009) is darker (he only thinks he’s being paid) but it’s a one person “town”.Report

      • DavidTC in reply to John Puccio says:

        If you believe the promise of driverless, electric technology will be realized, what’s the point of making massive investments in rail infrastructure for the purpose of moving people long distances?

        That’s making a damn weird assumption.

        I do not actually believe in driverless cars? Driverless cars, like cold fusion, is one of those things that is 10 years in the future…for about 50 years. I think we’re about year 20 of that,. and I’m pretty sure we’ll get cold fusion first. I’m not sure why anyone would assume driverless cars are going to be a thing soon.

        Electric cars are a completely different thing, and I have no idea why you’ve grouped them together. Honestly, I have no idea who doesn’t believe in the ‘promise’ of electric cars…we’re way past the ‘promise’ stage and are now in the ‘usage of them is slightly awkward due to growing pangs with charging infrastructure but that is rapidly solving itself’ stage.

        Anyway, the point of investment in rail infrastructure, as explained by the article itself, is not to replace normal car usage. It would be to replace short air travel as we phase out fossil fuels. Or, long car trips.

        The example given in the post is St. Louis to Kansas City, which takes about four hours by car. And right now there’s an Amtrak train that takes five and a half, over our incredibly shitty existing rail system. That’s clearly not workable as a choice.

        A flight between the two also takes four hours. Of course, the advantage there vs. driving is you do not have to pay attention the entire time…and the disadvantage is you have to go through security, so have to add an hour or so, so the trip time is honestly almost comparable to the train time already.

        Even very small improvements in rail, where passenger rail wasn’t forced to stop and delay all the time to the point it is currently _slower than driving_, fix that just the slightest bit and make it operate at ~75 the entire way with no traffic, would result in it being the best choice for a few hundred miles. (Note this not even _bringing up_ any high-speed rail option.)

        Once you bump it up to that, it becomes the best choice for anything between 200-800 miles. And, of course, once that system is usable, it also provides a low-cost slower option for even longer trips…I’m not sure that going coast to coast via rail would be immensely useful, but people already do it.Report

        • John Puccio in reply to DavidTC says:

          You’re not sure why electric/driverless vehicles would be lumped together? You don’t think it has to do with the fact that they are two technologies advancing in tandem that are completely disrupting ground transportation? I’m not sure if you were being intentionally pedantic, but the PROMISE I was speaking of was about the driverless future. With widespread adoption, we have the possibility of greater highway speed and efficiency, and ideally fewer vehicles per family.

          I think that in 20-30 years, we will be a lot closer to that sort of reality than you think. Nuclear fusion wishes it was on the same sort of pace.

          I’m all for making “in the meantime” improvements to existing rail infrastructure but it doesn’t change the fact that it is ridiculously expensive and only of value to a limited number of people.

          To put my “damn weird assumption” another way: If you don’t have to actually drive your car to go anywhere you want to on the continent, why would you ever consider taking a train instead?Report

          • Dark Matter in reply to John Puccio says:

            The problems with driverless vehicles are almost entirely software, i.e. it’s not ready. This type of software is getting better at rapid speeds.

            Here is an xkcd where the writer is explaining that some things just can’t be done. Since then, we’ve had a handful of years to work on it and now it can be done widely.

            https://xkcd.com/1425/Report

          • DavidTC in reply to John Puccio says:

            You’re not sure why electric/driverless vehicles would be lumped together? You don’t think it has to do with the fact that they are two technologies advancing in tandem that are completely disrupting ground transportation?

            Those are not, even _slightly_ disrupting anything. Neither the imaginary driverless cars (Which literally do not exist) nor electric cars, which is merely a normal car that occupies normal roads and is basically indistinguishable from ICE cars by everyone but the driver, who has to do a few things slightly different to keep it powered.

            Electric cars are ‘disrupting ground transportation’ in the same way that LED light bulbs were ‘disrupting home lighting’…in the sense that they did not doing that, and it is an almost entirely identical replacement that operates exactly the same. We will eventually be driving electric cars, once there is support for them, and there’s going to be a slow transition that I hope gets sped up with some laws, both with mandates and incentives. This is not really some complicated thing that is going to change anything. (Except massively reducing gas usage, and _shipping_ of that gas, which is actually pretty significant in itself.)

            ‘Disrupt’ doesn’t mean ‘We made some technological advancement in a product that otherwise is identical and it can be swapped it without any changes and people and industries are slowly converting over to it’. (Although that seems to be how everyone _uses_ ‘disrupt’.)

            I’m not sure if you were being intentionally pedantic, but the PROMISE I was speaking of was about the driverless future. With widespread adoption, we have the possibility of greater highway speed and efficiency, and ideally fewer vehicles per family.

            I _know_ what can be done with driverless cars. I’ve _discussed it here, long detailed discussions about how everything changed when driverless cars exist.

            In fact, I’m fairly certain I discussed it here long enough ago that NOW is the point in time that they supposedly should have existed.

            Which demonstrates the major problem in trying to figure out any future where a problem is solved by them. Especially _oil_, which is a very immediate problem that can’t wait another three decades where driverless cars are always ‘5-10 years away’.

            And meanwhile…this is all _extremely_ dumb to start with. I mean, I didn’t even touch on this because they don’t actually exist, and won’t for quite some times, but why _exactly_ do you think driverless cars are better than trains for long distances?

            Like, even in a universe where you can push some buttons on your phone and get a driverless car delivered in minutes, people aren’t going to sit for five hours in a driverless car vs. sitting that long in a train and just getting driverless car at the end. Sitting in a car isn’t something people will want to do (I point out that almost all airline complaints are about _space_.), and it isn’t _cheaper_, electricity-wise, to run a bunch of little cars instead of just having a train car.

            I mean, how many Uber rides are 5 hour trips? That’s basically what we’re talking about, right? A little bit more privacy, I guess, but it’s functionally the same thing, and they can drop you off right at the car rental place at the other end. But no one takes an Uber that far…they take the airplane or even ride the shitty rail system we have now, and then manage to make their way to a car rental place.

            So this is actually a really dumb premise to start with, even assuming working driverless cars appear tomorrow. If anything, a system of shared driverless cars makes train transport more workable…you can make train systems without huge parking lots and a pretty transparent and instant crossover between the two. Automated cars make _all sorts_ of mass transit much more workable, because they can take you to and from it trivially…as we’ve actually discussed here.Report

            • John Puccio in reply to DavidTC says:

              Take a breath, David. You seem upset.

              If you can’t recognize how electric – from how it is powered (including the infrastructure that requires) to how vehicles are sold) – is disruptive technology, there is no point in engaging. As for driverless, it actually *is* here. It’s just very early days.If you don’t want to consider the possibilities and implications, of what it will mean in 10 years and the 10 years after that, you’re free to ignore it. But insisting that neither is disruptive is pretty silly.

              Listen, I love trains too. In college I interned at the B&O Railroad Museum in Baltimore. It was fascinating. But guess what? You know what I learned there? It’s not the future. It was a museum for a reason.

              Outside of subways and commuter rails, Americans have been rejecting longer distance trail travel for several decades. It’s not coming back, no matter how many minutes you manage to shave off your trip to St Louis from Kansas City.

              Rail is still just 19th technology and it’s never going to get much better in this country. And it’s definitely not going to solve the problems discussed in the article above.

              The train cultists sound a lot like socialists to me. You know, “we never attempted true train travel. This time it will be different!”

              Both result in very expensive experiments that always fail.

              Talk about weird.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to DavidTC says:

      Of course, in some hypothetical universe where there is plenty of unused rail capacity owned by the railroads, it might _hypothetically_ be cheaper for them to use it than for us to rent it. Although I have no idea why that would be…them deciding to let rail capacity sit empty instead of renting it out is kinda stupid.

      The metro Denver light/commuter rail system will need access to a BNSF right of way to build the last major run in the system. For BNSF, it’s a seldom used “back door” run. It’s very old, the turns are so tight the freight trains have to crawl along it. The transit authority offered a deal where they would make the necessary improvements — property acquisition so the turns could be straightened, double tracking in places, crossing upgrades. BNSF’s response was “All that, we’ll only lease it to you, an up front lease payment of $7B, and then we can talk about the annual payment.” $7B is more than all of the other property acquisitions for the system taken together. BNSF, at least, clearly thinks it’s better to let that run sit empty than to rent it out.

      Me, I’m hoping we get off coal quickly, which will probably bankrupt BNSF, and then the transit folks can just buy the right of way in bankruptcy court.Report

  5. Jennifer Worrel says:

    “Over all we need to move away from petroleum.”—people say this all.the.time. Rarely, do they have a good reason why.

    A blend of energy sources is good; diversification is not a bad thing. I will never argue that it is.

    However…

    The US is a net exporter of petroleum products. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49596

    Yes, net. We do import from some countries, we export more to others.

    The nation that is the largest supply source of fossil fuels to the US is Canada. And its not even close. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49596Report

  6. Dark Matter says:

    petroleum is a finite resource.

    The Stone Age Did Not End Because the World Ran Out of Stones, and the Oil Age Will Not End Because We Run Out of Oil

    -Unclear who said this first but it’s popular with energy experts.Report

    • Jennifer Worrel in reply to Dark Matter says:

      It was a common saying of the Saudi Oil Minister and originated during the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s. He was the same guy who said “My grandfather rode a camel. My father drove a car. I fly in jet planes.”

      His point being that advancements in productivity and efficiency would always displace less effective technology.Report

  7. Jaybird says:

    I certainly hope that this reduces the price of oil for China.Report