The Unbearable Lightness of Veeping
They used to open the improv comedy show “Whose Line Is It Anyway?” with “welcome to the show where everything is made up and the points don’t matter.” That line kept running through my head over and over again watching the one and only Vice Presidential debate last night between Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris.
Everything wasn’t made up, of course. The issues are real, and in many of the cases of the utmost importance. They were physically sitting there, 12 feet and two layers of plexiglass between them, something we will apparently not be getting at the next varsity team debate. But the entire feeling of this JV debate was one of points not mattering. VP selections and debates rarely change much if anything in a presidential race. While folks will have a litany of reasons why this time is different, it is doubtful. Michael Pence was pulled out of a political career in Indiana that was entering an opportunity cul-de-sac to bolster then-candidate Donald Trump’s conservative and evangelical base, a decision the now president was so confident in he had to reportedly be talked into not changing his mind. Senator Harris was soundly rejected by her own party in the primaries, despite a promising start and quite a bit of establishment support, and her campaign for 2020 election didn’t even make it into 2020 the calendar year.
Which is the real story of last night, and why that line of “made up and points don’t matter” dogged the proceedings while watching them. Breaking down the ins and outs of this debate, far more traditional than last weeks goat rope of an affair by these running mates’ principals, but that’s of limited meaning and returns. Not even twelve hours later, this debate is already getting big footed out of the news cycle by the next presidential debate that may or may not happen now. This was 90 minutes of television role-playing. Both want to be president themselves, both are yoked to others whom they — in their own minds — think are lesser candidates than themselves. They are both ambitious, experienced politicians who have to play the game of good soldier number two for their number ones regardless of all other matters because their entire future now depends on it. They both tried to walk various tightropes between their own pasts, their principals’ present, and their own imagined electoral future.
As for the actual debate it, was about what we expected. VP Pence only has one gear, monotone drone, and it works in formats like this to keep any big moment from really manifesting. His constant overrunning of his time and talking over both Senator Harris and the moderator sure felt purposeful and planned. His digs at the media in general also seemed preplanned, but Pence is not Trump and his more Trumpian canned lines always fall uneven. Senator Harris was better than her rather uneven performances in the Democratic primary debates, but still has some things to work on for her own inevitable second run at the big chair at the end of Pennsylvania Avenue. She did exactly what the number two on a ticket with a lead should do: nothing to make major headlines and mess it up. Neither did particularly well in answering the questions that were asked when they were asked in the allotted time for said questions to be answered. They were both more polite about it than their bosses but it was clear from the get-go both would be steamrolling the format and moderator at will to get their points in.
So did the one and only VP debate change anything? Probably not. If you’re Team Biden, that’s a good thing, since you are currently winning by all available metrics. If you’re Team Trump, you needed the bleeding of bad news cycles and last week’s dumpster fire to stop and get back to some discussion of things that would go in your favor. If you are like most folks, you were on social media discussing the fly. Such was the undeniable charisma exuding from Salt Lake City that a random Endopterygota hijacked the whole thing for a good five minutes.
Mostly, folks will leave this debate the way they came. Your social media timeline before will be mostly unchanged after. There was nothing here that hasn’t been said somewhere else by someone else. We checked a box off on the list of things to do electing a president, and we did it in workman-like fashion. Maybe this was a preview of a future debate where they are not the seconds but the heads of tickets, which both of them clearly want. It may be a minority opinion, but I doubt either of these folks become president on their own in the future. But if they do, then maybe this is a moment folks look back on as important.
But until then, it felt mostly made up, and the points don’t really matter.
Right after we watched the VP debate, we watched the Washington State Gubernatorial Debate hosted by the Washington State Debate Coalition. It was STUNNING the difference in the quality and toughness of the questions asked compared to both the presidential and vice-presidential debates. The candidates for governor were asked unflattering questions and actually forced to address their non-answers, by getting asked followup questions whenever they gave a fuzzy answer. The WSDC should be put in charge of the presidential debates – made me realize that debating could be an actually legit way of seeing what a candidate thinks instead of a meaningless pageant of sniping.Report
So, how did they get the candidates to answer the actual questions? Not that VP is gonna sway anyone anyway, but the American electorate got nothing but some fly jokes out of last night’s “debate”.Report
I have, like, a couple of responses to this and it feels like they’re contradictory.
Reddit, for example, got nothing but fly jokes out of last night. “BLACK FLIES MATTER” was the big one that I saw but, apparently, there are a million “Pence’s Fly” accounts on the twitters that exist now that didn’t two days ago.
If the ratings for the VP debate are higher than the ratings for (googles) Big Brother, I’ll eat a bug. The American electorate was watching that. Maybe the Masked Singer? What the hell is the Masked Singer?
What the hell? The 90210 guy went up against Mickey Rourke and Busta Rhymes?!?!?
Anyway. I’d be tempted to say that the American electorate didn’t even get fly jokes out of last night.
The only people who watched were people who already cared.Report
In shocking news, Jaybird, you’re wrong again!
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1314321731599958016
“With nearly 58 million viewers, last night was the second most-watched VP debate in history”
Only Biden/Palin had more viewersReport
Golly! I will eat a bug later.Report
The flip side of “BLACK FLIES MATTER”:
Report
I am not so sure this does not change anything but it is hard to tell. Trump has been in free fall since his COVID diagnosis. A month ago, 538 gave Trump a 30 out of 100 chances of winning the election. Today his chance stands at 15 out of 100. The majority of 538’s scenarios have a Biden blow out of 100 electoral college votes or more. Also Biden’s approval rating is shooting up. For most of August and September, it hoovered at just over 50 percent. He is currently at 51.9 percent and going up. Trump is going down.
Of course as Jesse notes, the commentators of OT are largely Gen X white dudes who seem especially impervious to ever noticing that Democratic policies are popular, Democratic politicians can be popular, and the Democratic Party is not always in disarray. Every successful Democratic election seems to hit middle aged Gen X white guys like a lightening bolt. “Who are all these Democrats? Where did they come from? Is there anything we can do about it? Ratfuck democracy and the vote? Okay!!!”
As an example, a poll I saw yesterday stated that 61 percent of women felt that Harris won the debate and performed much better than Pence but among men 48 percent believed Harris won and performed better and 46 percent of men felt that Pence won the debate/performed better. I find it hard to believe that sexism and/or racism is not playing a part here.*
Again, a lot of white guys seem to have a monomania definition of liberty and prosperity where it is all about making all the monies with a side of getting to bully people they deem “weirdo freaks.” So Mike Lee and other right-wing/”libertarian” dudes complaining about how liberals are anti-liberty sound like the jocks of high school who are shocked they no longer rule the roost at 45 or 55 or whenever. Mike Lee probably seethes that all the weirdo freaks were able to flee Utah for San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle, New York, or some other liberal city. Even Salt Lake City being liberal/progressive is too much for him.Report
I concur with your analysis. Considering that Biden’s raking in some of the best poll results of the campaign so far the news that the Veep debate likely won’t move the needle is unabashedly good for him. Biden doesn’t need change on this trajectory.Report
My take was boring as hell. It was “Oh, Republicans are saying that Pence won and Democrats are saying that Harris won” with a leavening of both sides arguing that the VP debate doesn’t matter. Which means that Pence didn’t move the ball and Trump needed Pence to move the ball.
But now I’m seeing the word “mansplaining” with regards to the debate and accusing Pence of it?
Which, gotta say, strikes me as a twitter-level analysis rather than a Nightly News-level analysis.
Report
Hell, maybe it’ll be a blessing in disguise in the future.
“Canada does not want to renegotiate NAFTA. Is Justin Trudeau sexist?”
“Kim Jong Un does not want to renegotiate nuclear fuel production. Does North Korea respect women?”
“Israel does not want to purchase more F-35 fighter jets. Does Israel have a history of racism/sexism?”Report
That, right there, the “mansplaining” BS?
That is how you know that Pence won. If Kamala had a good showing, it would have been “Kamala – like a boss!” or somesuch. But it was all buzzword bingo, attempting to shore up the base.Report
Yeah, yeah, Pence won, lovely. Now Trump/Pence loses Arizona by 5.4% instead of 5.9%.
whoop-dee-doo.Report
On the all-important question of “Who do you think your neighbor is going to vote for”, which was most accurate polling question of 2016, Trump leads Biden by about 10 points.Report
Comments like this make me want to cry. George, are you familiar with politics in the UK over the last say, 1-5 years?Report
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1314219404847206403?s=20
If this tweet holds up, Democrats are likely to gain more seats in the House. Josh Marshall floated a theory yesterday that McConnell told Trump to pull out of stimulus talks to throw him an anchor. In this theory, McConnell is predicting that Trump will lose bigly and so might Senate Republicans but he wants to make things difficult for the Democrats when they take charge in January and then he can come back in 2022 via his normal obstruction tactics.*
Coming down with COVID might be the thing that caused Trump to have the floor come out from under him especially because he is obviously a lot sicker than he lets on and the WH seems to be a super spreading event. Pence did not have a good answer for this at the debate.
*McConnell’s other gamble is that the Democratic Party will not retake the Senate and/or not have the votes to end the filibuster or to do anything about the Federal Courts constantly striking down their legislation.Report
If you got an honest thought out of Mitch McConnell, his perfect scenario for this election is holding his majority in the Senate, being rid of Trump, and he doesn’t care what the house does since losing another dozen seats to the Democrats doesn’t change the power balance any.
Whether he is actively working towards that end, I’ll leave to other to judge, but will remind you that he is Mitch McConnell.Report
Pretty much this. From McConnell’s view, anyway. For folks that are invested in the Republican Party as part of their identity, they are very concerned… but their concerns concern not McConnell. It is the fatal flaw and the sublime beauty of the system we have.Report
McConnell leaving the Senate would be one of the best things for the United States.Report
I agree that this is probably what he wants. Whether he gets it or not is another question. Trump going down this fast is not good for McConnell. I can see a state voting for Trump but still electing a Democratic Senator. It is hard for me to imagine a state voting for Biden but still retaining a Republican Senator at this point. Colorado, Arizona, and Maine are likely Democratic gains. North Carolina is also more likely than not. Iowa is a toss up but I predict it will go R or D for both the races.
If Democrats manage to win the electoral college votes for Georgia and Texas, maybe those states keep their R-Senators (this would be the people do not vote for Trump but vote for every other Republican scenario).Report
The two most interesting thing that happened last night:
1. Pence refusing to say that Trump will go quietly if he loses.
2. Pence is now attracting flies, like the dead wife in American Gods.Report
I watched quite a bit of Frank Luntz’s focus group last night, and it told a very different story. Even the Biden leaners were horrified by Harris’s performance, and at least one or two flipped to Trump because of it. The pro-Biden black female member bailed – on Biden, saying there was no way Harris should be President, and given Biden’s health status, he probably wouldn’t be in office very long.
From their descriptions of Harris, it’s obvious why she dropped out prior to Iowa with 2% support, and it’s obvious why she’s been almost non-existent on the campaign trail.Report