Throwback Thursday: Primaries of Ordinary Times Past

[TT1] 2016 – The Limits of Enthusiasm: Iowa 2016 by Roland Dodds

“Based on current polls, Bernie is likely going to win the New Hampshire primary next week. I doubt a more decisive victory in Iowa was going to change that. However, if Bernie were to win Iowa and then NH, the accumulating losses for Clinton would taint her campaign with the smell of defeat that could accumulate and dog her moving into the states she is best situated to win. Clinton just needs to hold her own against Bernie in the early states until she can rack up a slew of victories in more favorable markets.”

[TT2] 2011 – Thy Gingrich Come — and why Romney should go-for-broke in Iowa by Elias Isquith

“Republican primary voters are a bit like high school students looking for whatever excuse they can find to procrastinatea little longer — always just a little longer — to avoid buckling down and studying for the damn SATs. The only thing that’ll put the whole charade to bed, the only thing that’ll actually get the kid to sit down and crack open the book, is the same thing that’ll eventually force the red state faithful to cast their lot with Mitt: time. Eventually, that SAT is this coming Saturday; eventually, it’s the morning of the Iowa caucus.”

[TT3] 2012 – After Iowa by Mike Dwyer

“I chose to remain silent during the recent round of Ron Paul posts. It wasn’t because I had nothing to say but it was because I didn’t think he had much of a chance to win Iowa. Last night shook out exactly like I thought I would which doesn’t make me a mystic but instead points to a predictable Republican electorate in 2012.”

[TT4] 2012 – Jungle Primary In The One-Party State by Burt Likko

“The facts are that California is a one-party state. There are just enough Republicans to enable them, if they maintain near-perfect discipline in the Legislature, to prevent taxes from being increased because it takes a two-thirds vote to do that. Other than that, Republicans are effectively powerless here and apparently locked out of any meaningful position of power unless they can elect someone to one of the statewide Constitutional offices. The last Republican to do that was Arnold Schwarzenegger, someone who managed to make Republicans even madder at him than Democrats. Before that, Republicans had Secretary of State Bill Jones, a political not well known even in California anymore. The highest-ranking Republicans in California’s state government are George Runner and Michelle Steel, two of five board members controlling the entity that has authority over which products are subject to sales tax.

I’m not at all sure that the “jungle primary” is a help to the Republicans. To date, we’ve only had one election with a jungle primary, and that resulted in a Republican barely squeaking in to second place in a closely divided district, in what otherwise would have been a Democrat-versus-Democrat runoff.”

[TT5] 2015 – The Parties Should Worry about Primary Debates by Dan Scotto

“More importantly, while more voters may well tune in to the debates, they may not be fully acquainted with the personalities and foibles of the various moderators. The moderators present themselves as without biases. Conservatives rail against media bias–and I think they’re right to do so, in terms of near-unanimity of worldview–but it is often difficult to recognize tacit biases seeping through questions. If, for example, John Kasich, the Left’s favorite current Republican candidate, goes into a debate on ABC and sees slightly easier questions than Ted Cruz because the question writers unconsciously put their thumbs on the scale for their preferred candidate, that could affect voter preferences. (Note that this is a far greater risk than a similar effect in the presidential debates, where voter preferences have additional anchors, like political party. Republicans loathed Candy Crowley’s intervention in the second presidential debate in 2012, but comparable intervention could have a much more significant impact in a primary debate.)

This is mostly speculation, and surely, it is possible that everyone who makes it to the heights of debate moderation can craft fair questions. But that is not a risk that the Republican Party–or the Democratic Party, for that matter–should take. The primary debates are now too important. Moderators can enforce time rules, but they themselves should not be the story.”