The Iowa Caucus is Monday. Lay Down Your Marker.

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Jaybird

Jaybird is Birdmojo on Xbox Live and Jaybirdmojo on Playstation's network. He's been playing consoles since the Atari 2600 and it was Zork that taught him how to touch-type. If you've got a song for Wednesday, a commercial for Saturday, a recommendation for Tuesday, an essay for Monday, or, heck, just a handful a questions, fire off an email to AskJaybird-at-gmail.com

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21 Responses

  1. Avatar Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    Okay, my take is boring.

    Sure, Sanders is (barely) ahead right now, but look at that 33%! There’s no way that those people all go to Sanders too.

    So here’s what I see happening:

    1. Biden
    2. Sanders
    3. Warren

    Buttigeig comes in 4th, drops out after NH, runs for VP (loses that too).Report

  2. Avatar Andrew Donaldson
    Ignored
    says:

    Personal life me would like Biden to win this and put the primary to bed so we can get on with other things.

    Writer/commentor me thinks Bernie ecks it out and we get to play horserace till Super Tuesday, or maybe the week after before we get the result personal life me is hoping for in Iowa.Report

  3. Avatar Marchmaine
    Ignored
    says:

    Boring me picks Biden… but I’m playing a hunch and pushing all my Democratic chips in for Bernie [which for the record, I’m entitled to and have exactly zero]. I’m buying the hype and the caucus mojo… building on his existing 2016 network will pay big dividends. (Plus, Biden sucks at Iowa).

    1. Bernie
    2. Biden
    3. Klobuchar
    4. Warren

    My no-information gut says Klobuchar pushes Buttigieg under 15%…

    If I were caucusing for Klobuchar, I’d totally serve our snacks with combs (in wrappers) as utensils… that’s the kind of self-deprecating humor we mid-westerners cotton to.Report

  4. Avatar Philip H
    Ignored
    says:

    1. Bernie
    2. Warren
    3. Klobuchar
    4. Biden.

    Yang, Buttigieg, and anyone else still on the list drops off. Mayor Pete starts campaigning for one of the others.

    I’m going to be really interested to see if Bill Weld does any good on the Republican side. He’s not getting a lot of press but he’s still actively running.Report

  5. Avatar George Turner
    Ignored
    says:

    I think Romney missed a big opportunity in Iowa. Nobody did more to give Obama a second term, and nobody has really done more to stop Trump or stab Republicans in the back. That could carry some weight with Democratic caucus goers and at least position him for a second or third place finish. But alas, he didn’t even campaign there.

    So absent Romney, I’d have to go Bernie, Biden, Klobuchar, Warren, Buttigieg, though I’m not that confident Biden will come in second.

    As for how the primaries end up, yesterday I read an interesting New Republic article,
    Tom Perez stacks DNC deck against progressives. If I was a progressive I would find it highly disturbing. They might get a bit upset to find out that corrupt corporate anti-progressive shills get to run the convention.Report

  6. Avatar North
    Ignored
    says:

    Iowa has always reliably frustrated me so I’m gonna guess:
    1. Uncle Bernie
    2. Biden
    3. Warren
    4. Klobuchar

    But I really hope it turns out different. And please not Bernie, the Berniacs will be intolerably smug until SC and super Tuesday bring them back to earth and that’ll take forevah!Report

  7. Avatar Doctor Jay
    Ignored
    says:

    I think it is very unlikely that any of the dropouts will go to Bernie’s camp. He’s a fairly strongly polarizing figure. For instance Nate Silver is showing Klobuchar at 10%. So her group is going to miss the cut. I can’t really see many of those people moving to Bernie.

    So,
    1. Biden
    2. Sanders
    3. WarrenReport

  8. Avatar Fish
    Ignored
    says:

    1. Sanders
    2. Biden
    3. Buttigieg
    4. Warren
    5. Klobuchar
    6. The guard from the Northern Iowa team that upset Kansas in the NCAA’s a few years ago
    7. A half-eaten ham sammich
    8. Andrew Yang
    9. BloombergReport

  9. Avatar Aaron David
    Ignored
    says:

    Sanders
    (10point spread)
    Biden
    Warren
    Buttigeig
    Yang
    Blah, blah, blah.

    Special K and the… who’s left? drop out.Report

  10. Avatar Zac Black
    Ignored
    says:

    Well, given that I’ve donated nearly $1000 in the past few months to the Sanders campaign, you better believe I think it’ll be Bernie.Report

  11. Avatar Kolohe
    Ignored
    says:

    Bernie 1st, Biden 2nd, Warren 3rd, Mayor Pete 4thReport

  12. Avatar Saul Degraw
    Ignored
    says:

    Sanders could win Iowa and New Hampshire but this is going to kill in South Carolina:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/bernie-sanders-described-segregationist-george-wallace-as-sensitive-in-1972-article

    I am not making predictions but my wish is for a Warren win. I admit it is a dark horse.Report

  13. Avatar Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    Here’s kind of where we are:

    I’m kinda surprised that we *STILL* can’t point at someone and say “yeah, you got your guess right” but I’d like to give half a point to the people who suggested Biden would win and a quarter point to myself for suggesting that the dumbest thing possible would happen.Report

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