Hark! Folks Not Running for President in 2020
The segue on the old Rocky & Bullwinkle cartoon would often go “And now for something completely different.” So did Monty Python. These days, folks NOT running for president certainly qualifies as something different, and Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) & former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg all pass on 2020.
Michael Bloomberg seemed to be moving towards a run for president. The former New York Mayor was hiring staff, making trips to early voting states, and his team was thinking big about a nationwide strategy that would be funded by his billions.
But on Tuesday, Bloomberg opted out, saying in an op-ed that he was “clear-eyed about the difficulty of winning the Democratic nomination in such a crowded field.”
After an initial burst of Democrats joining the presidential race, decisions this week by Bloomberg, Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown signal how other would-be candidates are shying away from the race – and in some cases it’s less about the size of the field, and more about who is still likely to be in it.
Sources close to Bloomberg say that former Vice President Joe Biden’s potential entrance into the 2020 fray made an uphill, but potentially winnable, primary slog even steeper for the New York billionaire. While Bloomberg’s path to the nomination was narrow already, “the path is really narrow with Joe in the race,” one source close to Bloomberg told NBC News, speaking on condition of anonymity so as to speak more candidly
I’m in the minority of thinking Joe is just being a tease and doesn’t get in, but could be wrong. If he does run, his reputation of being a problematic, gaffe-prone candidate already reared its head this past week when he complimented VP Mike Pence, only to be quickly corrected that flippant common courtesy like that won’t be tolerated. But who knows, maybe he will. Till then, we wait for the Democratic field to finish taking shape.
Sherrod Brown also announced he is not running.Report
Uncle Joe demonstrates the whole tension that exists with the Primary thing.
I think he could win the election.
I don’t think he could win the primary.Report
heh, flippant common courtesy for the win.Report
Brown’s decision to not run means Biden will. Same reason why Bloomberg is bowing out. There are zero contenders on the Democratsside that can beat Trump except Klobuchar. But with all the mean boss stories coming out, its clears certain vindictive, non- democrat is playing dirty to eliminate his biggest competition. I think Biden is waiting on O’Rourke. But I already made this prediction: without Biden Trump will win re election as long as democrats move further to the left, the obscene, dig deep into their own heels to defend anti-Semitism… Too extreme, and they’ve abandoned the center and independents.Report
There are zero contenders on the Democratsside that can beat Trump except Klobuchar.
I think there are others (Hickenlooper, Inslee) but that Klobuchar is the only candidate (prospective or declared) who can both win the primary and beat Trump. So basically I agree with you. The problem Dems have right now is that they're on a trajectory set to nominate someone who large chunks of the Democratic base will actively dislike. (Similar to last election cycle…)Report
I’m not seeing this. Which of the major contenders will be disliked by most D’s? How does that even equal the clintonhate of last cycle?Report
I didn’t say most Ds, I said big chunks of the Ds.
Who? Every one of them except Amy K, seems to me.
Adding: and even she would prolly get pilloried by the progressive left if she ever became the frontrunner…..Report
Yeah, I’m not seeing a whole lotta Warren hate, or Harris hate, or Gillibrand hate out there.
What am I missing?Report
You are missing that cranky middle aged white guys will be cranky middle-aged white guys and pretending to know the Democratic Base’s inner thoughts is the god-given right of all armchair pundits.Report
Yeah, I just saw a headline about Bill Maher getting his panties in a bunch about “Social Justice Warriors”.
It’s like there is this class of white liberals who are unsettled by the new generation of activists like OAC whose vision of a just society is at variance with Maher’s 1970’s National Lampoon vintage.Report
On the other hand … you two cranky white guys continue to think Hillary was a good candidate. 🙂Report
I wouldn’t say that I’ve seen Warren hate as much as I’ve seen Warren cringing.
As for Harris, I’ve seen a number of people argue that Harris needs to answer for her time as enthusiastic prosecutor (especially prosecuting black males) and the responses to this criticism take the form of “you don’t *REALLY* care about that!” or “no one will ever hate strong black women more than black men”.
Gillibrand doesn’t suffer from hate but from indifference. (Nate Silver points out that she doesn’t have a single endorsement from the 900+ potential Democratic endorsers.)Report
Beltway Wisdom: In order to be electable, Democrats need to stand up to Black Lives Matter and not be so fixated on identity.
Also Beltway Wisdom: In order to be electable, Democrats need to be more sensitive to police oppression of black males.
OK Then!Report
Well, then you have to pick one.
Do you care about Black Lives Mattering?
Or do you say “Hell with catering to identity!”
Harris seems to have chosen the latter.
California, at the same time, has moved its primary up. (It was in June in 2016. It is scheduled for March in 2020.)
Surely this will help Harris leapfrog to the frontrunner position and put the naysayers in their proper place.Report
“you have to pick one”
Sez who? Where are these Iron laws of Campaign Winnin’ written down?
Which is a sense is true- no matter what position one takes, there will be some constituency somewhere that is implacably opposed.
But…that’s just Politics since the beginning of time. And that’s why politicians learn fast how to dance and be on every side of every issue, to massage egos and agendas and build coalitions out of opposing forces.Report
Progressives: “Harris was an aggressive prosecutor who did not agree to trans rights in California prisons, took cops’ side of disputes when she didn’t have to, and did nothing to stop the weight of the criminal justice system from falling upon the shoulders of black defendants!”
General election voters: “So… what’s the downside?”Report
Well, if you start dancing, it’s ideally best to argue both that Black Lives Matter *AND* that we need to get rid of identity politics.
Hillary’s problem was that she danced in such a way that said “Black Lives Matter Because All Lives Matter” and “Identity Politics Yesterday, Identity Politics Today, Identity Politics Forever!”
Which pissed off juuuuuuuust enough people to lose to freaking Trump.
Burt makes an interesting point about the General election, but the consensus establishment candidate will have to dodge the progressives for a few months first… which brings me back to how the criticisms have been handled so far. There are ways to deal with the questions she’s been asked in a good, solid way that gets people to say “yeah, she made the best of a bad situation” and only the nuttiest of the nuts would disagree (and scream something about Bernie).
Her skills remind me more of Hillary than Bill so far.
But we’ve got 20 more months of this shit.Report
The problem with a girl like Kamala is she is an SNL candidate. Not ready for prime time. Like Hildog, she never really had to run in a contested election. She never had to bob and weave through a crowded field. And most importantly, she never had to deal with an angry public. She was ideal, at least until she came across people who hate her ideals. And questioned her about them, instead of her race, sex or taste in sweaters.
I’mabe blunt here. Kamala fucked her way into politics and she is going to fuck her way out of politics.Report
Steve Cooley came within one point of Harris in 2010 and the Democratic primary was heavily contested. I’ll grant that her re-election in 2014 and her Senate election in 2016 were walks.
The “not ready for prime time” criticism is a reasonable one. I didn’t think Obama was ready for prime time in 2008 but I was wrong about that.Report
Completely agree. The problem with democrat leadership overall is they don’t have a strong message that appeals to independents, center right, or center left. Their infighting is proof positive they’re no different than populists on the right. We’ll have to see if Biden pushes the party to the center. They’ve boxed themselves in with late term abortion, failure to address infanticide, failure to acknowledge border security, the AOC fiasco, and finally, Omar. Arrogance doesn’t win over the center-it alienates. Still holding out for a GOP primary.Report
It is absolutely expected and typical for there to be some infighting and conflict between the various front runners and the …umm…many back runners at this point. They are staking out positions and campaigning. That is the way it always is this far out and for several months into the future.Report
I am curious what Democrats have to say to Wisconsinites and Michiganders and Pennsylvanians that will compare to Trump’s empty but glittering promises to bring manufacturing jobs back. Haven’t heard anything yet.Report
Other than some tweets, there wasn’t much coverage that the Lordstown Assembly plant of GM rolled out their last car yesterday, marking the beginning of closure announced back in November. The video of Trumps campaign rally proclaiming things there juxtaposed with what happened will carry weight there and write themselves. Will it be enough? IDK, but we have enough evidence that any erosion to Trump’s base isn’t going to be from ideological argument. Economic pain might do it, and honestly is probably the only thing that will do it.Report
It’s fertile ground for a democrat to swoop in and make a strong argument that those folks should vote D.
What is that argument?
I submit, if the argument is “Learn To Code”, the message will fail to resonate.
I imagine that Trump might come back with “See what I tried? I tried to do tariffs and the Fake News media and the elitists demanded that we ship your jobs overseas and give away the store on trade! I was on your side and I’m not the guy telling you that you need to change! *THEY* need to change!”Report
@burt-
It’s because no one, anywhere, has a good answer to the threat of automation and technology.Report
Mark me down in the “Anybody but Joe” camp.
He’s not a wartime consigliere.Report
I think Joe’s escaped the reality bubble by listening to the people with a financial stake in his campaign. He’s the Dem version of Jeb. Joe!Report
I see Joe rebuilding The Blue Wall.
How does he not?Report
I don’t think he gets the black vote people suspect he will. I don’t think he gets *any* of the young vote. I don’t even think he gets much of the Obama-holdover vote since Clinton pretty much poisoned that well.Report
In the primary? I could not agree more.
In the general? I could not agree less.Report
I’m pretty sure the primary comes before the general, tho.
{But I disagree about him shoring up the Blue Wall either way.}Report
Sherrod Brown and Amy K could rebuild the Blue Wall (as much as a candidate individually could anyway). Hick might, Inslee might. Biden not. (He’s part of the Regime which drove those folks to vote Trump in the first place.)Report
Good ole Hick, already working hard to heal a fractured party and bring us together as a country.Report
I’ll argue that Hick and Inslee have two big problems when they campaign in the Rust Belt states: they come from states where blacks aren’t the largest minority group, and where the urban problem is that the cities are doing too damned well.Report
00000h I like that. It goes good with Bad Touch Biden.
Just Joken’ Joe!
(we will work on it.)Report
If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will nuke this country.Report
Non Serviam?Report
That’s good. You can be my Veep, if er you know . . .Report
Well, I didn’t want to just ask outright… so thanks.Report
As somebody who had the opportunity to vote for Beto, I hope he runs. I think he brings a lot of things of the table in terms of electability, both in the primaries and in the general.
Beto is a cis, white, straight man -thus, he doesn’t trigger *cough*slightly bigoted*cough* voters that would be reluctant to vote for a woman or a minority.
At the same time, Beto, growing up as a minority white in a majority Hispanic environment, has fully -and honestly, which is important- embraced the multiethnic/diversity aspect of America. True , he’s embraced far more the Hispanic rather than the black aspects of it, but I think black voters will appreciate his honesty and won’t resent him for that.
Beto is young. I’m frustrated that Democrats have difficulties finding young candidates. As much as I like both Biden and Warren, I don’t want anyone near 70 running for President.
Beto is not from the Northeast, or California, or Chicago. He comes from a Red (purple) state, and will be much more competitive in the Western states. Relatedly, he’s from El Paso, a weird place that straddles the urban/rural divide, a mid-sized city surrounded by hundreds of miles or purely rural areas.
I hope I get the chance to vote for him again (Do I sound like Obamagirl)?Report