2021 Oscars Projections: Post Fall Film Festivals Edition

Back in the Spring, later in the Summer, and just before the major film festivals, I laid out where I thought the race for Best Picture stood when it came to next year’s Academy Awards ceremony. Attempting to read that landscape before festival season arrives is as perilous as trying to predict next year’s midterms a year out much less even a few months from now. Major reason being you’re going off of pure buzz, rumors and innuendo pushed at times by studios with their own agendas, plot synopsis and cast choices that may or may not live up to the hype, and the fog of talking about a set of movies even some insiders and pundits hadn’t feast their eyes upon just yet. But the major film festivals have now come and gone with the smaller ones underway in the coming weeks, and now we have eyes that have looked upon these films and performances; and just like that suddenly attempting to figure out the upcoming Oscars’ race isn’t as tricky as it was before.

History tells us these festivals are attended by major film journalists and critics that will push some of these movies in their publications read by voters, coupled with those said voters showing up themselves to wine and dine with these films’ producers and their cast and crew. There’s as much “shaking hands and kissing babies” happening at these festivals these days as there is at the Virginia gubernatorial candidates’ campaign rallies. Social media is filled with plenty of photos of the celebrities hanging out with key voters and film journalists to push their film; even Kenneth Branagh just took a trip to Virginia for the Middleburg Film Festival to accept a tribute award and charm festival goers enough that his movie won the audience award.  Judy Dench, usually known for not showing up to these, made sure to show up at the London Film Festival for her film’s screening there, as she is now being mentioned as a potential acting nominee. Kirsten Stewart went on a twenty four hour whirlwind trip from Venice to the mountains of Colorado for Telluride as she eyes her first ever acting nomination from the Academy; and Jane Campion has been going to practically every festival to push her Netflix backed film that is a major contender to win the big prize and get her a Best Director nod.

Since 2007, the eventual Best Picture winner was first screened at a festival with all but two times (2011, 2019) being festivals from the fall. Since 2008, the winner of the Toronto Film Festival People’s Choice Award has gone on to be nominated for Best Picture all but once (2011), and the winner of that same award has won the Oscar two of the last three years. Long story short, these festivals arguably might matter more than the Iowa caucus seem to these days (Sorry to any Hawkeye state readers).

That’s not to say that all campaigning is exclusive to the festivals; studios are setting up “For Your Consideration” ads and campaign websites (Yes, campaign websites exist), setting up screeners for voters, scheduling press appearances, and some potential acting nominees such as Will Smith are even coming out with books and planning press tours just in time for their big movie’s release. Countries are carefully selecting their submissions for the Best International Feature category, and smaller but important precursor award organizations are already out there scheduling their ceremonies. We even just got the nominees for the Gotham Awards as smaller independent movies try to make some noise. Awards season is truly here and make no doubt about it, it’s just as much an effort to campaign for that little golden man Bette Davis nicknamed as it is running for an elected office.

Eight out of the ten nominees I currently predict for Best Picture have been slotted for the nomination since I started following the race back in the Spring. Three films have gotten into my final ten only to eventually be taken out – Canterbury Glass, The French Dispatch, and The Hand Of God. The first got pushed into the 2022 film schedule, the second has been slipping from the board as buzz has died due to the anthology structure not working with a good chunk of important audiences, and the third seemingly having its bubble burst overnight after a mixed sort of response to its festival showings as some questioned its accessibility. My top pick to win it all back in the Spring was The Tragedy Of Macbeth which has slipped further and further down on the board in time to the ninth slot as that movie’s Shakespearian dialogue has been brought up as an issue from giving this anything past plaudits for the performances in it. Then throughout the Summer I had Soggy Bottom or the now re-named Licorice Pizza as the movie to beat in my mind.

But the festival season shook up the race greatly with the surge of two movies I thought needed momentum from the said festivals to get into the conversation, and boy did they get it. King Richard, which had been seen as a likely Will Smith vehicle only ended up wowing audiences at Telluride and again in recent smaller festivals so that not only is the movie getting hype as a crowd pleaser that could win Best Picture, but could also have an ensemble on its hands that does well with the SAG awards as well. The movie has climbed into the tenth slot and all evidence suggests Warner Brothers sees it as a serious contender for them. Meanwhile Belfast, the black and white Kenneth Branaugh semi-auto biographical crowd pleaser, dropped into the race like a freight train slamming into the awards chatter hallways. It had a surprise screening at Telluride that coincided with a very well received trailer reveal (I admittedly was incredibly taken aback on how good the movie looked when the trailer dropped) that had the buzz going followed by win after win at film festival after film festival with critics glowingly talking about the movie as perhaps the best of the year. Branagh has been super aggressive in campaigning and the ensemble has showed up at various festivals themselves. It has not only gotten into the top ten, but surged all the way to frontrunner status.

As for the rest, The Power Of The Dog has taken the current spot as the serious-minded message film that will compete with the crowd pleaser frontrunner. Dune continues to climb the board as it received all the love Warner Brothers was hoping it’d get from the festivals and critics with it being a favorite to clean up when it comes to tech nominations. Licorice Pizza looks to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s most accessible movie yet. Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up, which could get mixed reviews but be beloved by the Academy just like Vice was, is still in my mind a stronger competitor than many seem to accept. West Side Story remains here for obvious reasons, and The Tragedy Of Macbeth has been screened and well-received. House Of Gucci and Nightmare Alley have trailers out, but no screenings until late in the year.

My ten picks aren’t that different from others with the top three arguably being the closest thing to nomination locks right now, while the rest could rise and fall in the coming weeks and months. One movie I’ve seen more and more folks predict to get into the race is the Princess Diana flick Spencer, but I don’t exactly think that movie may be as accessible to voters as it seems to be for the Awards/Film Twitter crew. I do think it has a shot at Actress and below the line stuff, though. There’s also some putting in Mass, but that movie has massive marketing and release schedule problems which just showed themselves in its underperforming the Gotham Awards’ nomination announcements. I have it getting a few nominations down the ballot, but all of them are barely in right now. Others have been placing CODA, but in my opinion that is an incredibly overrated contender that plays more like a TV movie than anything cinematic with Matlin as Supporting Actress being its most realistic shot and I don’t even have her in my five just yet.

There’s also some buzz around Netflix’s Tick, Tick…Boom! and The Harder They Fall with the latter reportedly getting a much better reception from would be voters than critics at a recent screening. I don’t have the former getting one nomination right now and the latter is only getting one in my opinion as of today. But either could see a sudden surge once they have their moments in the sun come next month. Talking about Netflix, also keep an eye out for two debut directing efforts from known actresses in Maggie Gyllenhaal and Rebecca Hall’s respective films Passing and The Lost Daughter – both getting tons of buzz from recent festivals and getting a lot of Gotham Awards nominations.  So right now it really does look to be coming down to how these non-festival films will play come their holiday releases – if they falter, the race changes dramatically and gives some of these on the bubble movie chances up and down the ballot.

Below I’ve provided where I personally think the race for the Oscar is for not just Best Picture, but now for every category but the three short film awards (you don’t even try to figure out the nominees for those until much later in the season). I’ve ranked them from most likely to not just get nominated, but to outright win the category. There might be an extremely slight difference in how I ranked one or two of these in a recent podcast I recorded on the matter, where I went into more detail into my reasoning for these. Like with election predictions months out, I can guarantee you a lot of this is still fluid and even films or performances not mentioned as being on the bubble earlier in this piece could surge into the conversation by nomination eve. This is merely where I think the races are as of late October 2021 with months of more smooching, screenings, premiere weekends, and press leaks to go…

 

BEST PICTURE:2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Belfast (Focus Features)

#2. The Power Of The Dog (Netflix)

#3. Dune (Warner Brothers)

#4. Licorice Pizza (MGM)

#5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

#6. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)

#7. House Of Gucci (MGM)

#8. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)

#9. The Tragedy Of Macbeth (A24/Apple)

#10. King Richard (Warner Brothers)

– Current Rating: Tilts Belfast

 

BEST DIRECTOR: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)

#2. Jane Campion (The Power Of The Dog)

#3. Denis Villeneuve (Dune)

#4. Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)

#5. Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up)

– Current Rating: Pure Tossup

 

BEST ACTOR: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy Of Macbeth)

#2. Will Smith (King Richard)

#3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power Of The Dog)

#4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)

#5. Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)

– Current Rating: Tossup Between #1 & #2

 

BEST ACTRESS: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Jessica Chastain (The Eyes Of Tammy Faye)

#2. Kristin Stewart (Spencer)

#3. Lady Gaga (House Of Gucci)

#4. Frances McDormand (The Tragedy Of Macbeth)

#5. Jennifer Hudson (Respect)

– Current Rating: Tossup Between #1 & #2

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Jamie Dornan (Belfast)

#2. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power Of The Dog)

#3. Jared Leto (House Of Gucci)

#4. Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)

#5. Jason Isaacs (Mass)

– Current Rating: Pure Tossup

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)

#2. Kirsten Dunst (The Power Of The Dog)

#3. Ruth Negga (Passing)

#4. Judi Dench (Belfast)

#5. Ann Dowd (Mass)

– Current Rating: Pure Tossup

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Belfast

#2. Licorice Pizza

#3. Don’t Look Up

#4. King Richard

#5.  Mass

– Current Rating: Tilts Belfast

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. The Power Of The Dog

#2. Dune

#3. House Of Gucci

#4. Nightmare Alley

#5. The Lost Daughter

– Current Rating: Tilts The Power Of The Dog

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Encanto (Disney Animation)

#2. Luca (Disney/Pixar)

#3. The Mitchells VS The Machines (Netflix/Sony Animation)

#4. Belle (Toho)

#5. Flee (Neon)

– Current Rating: Tilts Encanto

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. A Hero (Iran)

#2. The Worst Person In The World (Norway)

#3. Flee (Denmark)

#4. Drive My Car (Japan)

#5. The Hand Of God (Italy)

– Current Rating: Pure Tossup

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. The Rescue (National Geographic)

#2. Summer Of Soul (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)

#3. Flee (Denmark)

#4. The Lost Leonardo (Sony Classics)

#5. Procession (Netflix)

– Current Rating: Pure Tossup

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. “No Time To Die” (No Time To Die)

#2. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” (Encanto)

#3. “Be Alive” (King Richard)

#4. “Guns Go Bang” (The Harder They Fall)

#5. “Here I Am” (Respect)

– Current Rating: Pure Tossup

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. The Power Of The Dog

#3. Spencer

#4. Licorice Pizza

#5. Nightmare Alley

– Current Rating: Tilts Dune

 

BEST SOUND: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. Belfast

#3. West Side Story

#4. Nightmare Alley

#5. No Time To Die

– Current Rating: Leans Dune

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. The Power Of The Dog

#3. Belfast

#4. The Tragedy Of Macbeth

#5. West Side Story

– Current Rating: Pure Tossup

 

BEST FILM EDITING: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. Belfast

#3. The Power Of The Dog

#4. Licorice Pizza

#5. Don’t Look Up

– Current Rating: Pure Tossup

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. Nightmare Alley

#3. Eternals

#4. The Matrix: Resurrections

#5. Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings

– Current Rating: Leans Dune

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. West Side Story

#3. Nightmare Alley

#4. The Tragedy Of Macbeth

#5. The French Dispatch

– Current Rating: Tilts Dune

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Cruella

#2. House Of Gucci

#3. Spencer

#4. Dune

#5. Nightmare Alley

– Current Rating: Leans Cruella

 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. The Eyes Of Tammy Faye

#2. House Of Gucci

#3. Cruella

#4. Dune

#5. Nightmare Alley

– Current Rating: Pure Tossup

 

CURRENT PREDICTED NOMINATION COUNT: 2021 Oscars Projections
Dune 11
Belfast 10
Nightmare Alley 9
The Power Of The Dog 9
House Of Gucci 6
Don’t Look Up 5
Licorice Pizza 5
The Tragedy Of Macbeth 5
King Richard 4
West Side Story 4
Flee 3
Mass 3
Spencer 3
Cruella 2
Encanto 2
No Time To Die 2
Respect 2
The Eyes Of Tammy Faye 2
A Hero 1
Belle 1
Drive My Car 1
Eternals 1
Luca 1
Passing 1
Procession 1
Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings 1
Summer Of Soul 1
The French Dispatch 1
The Hand Of God 1
The Harder They Fall 1
The Lost Daughter 1
The Lost Leonardo 1
The Matrix: Resurrections 1
The Mitchells VS The Machines 1
The Rescue 1
The Worst Person In The World 1

 

CURRENT WINNER PREDICTED COUNT: 2021 Oscars Projections
Dune 6
Belfast 5
The Eyes Of Tammy Faye 2
A Hero 1
Cruella 1
Encanto 1
No Time To Die 1
The Power Of The Dog 1
The Rescue 1
The Tragedy Of Macbeth 1