MAGA in the RGV
At the time of the writing of this article, it appears that former Vice-President Joseph Biden will be the next President of the United States, with a comfortable win in the Electoral College and a substantial win in the popular vote. (Full disclosure: I voted for Biden.) This was not a narrow victory, but it was closer than what many of the polls were suggesting and it did not come with a blue wave that swept through the Senate, House of Representatives and state legislatures. It appears there were two big waves, red and blue, and it just so happens the blue one was larger.
Any election has unexpected outcomes that are either bellwethers of future trends or anomalies. In this election, the voting results in the predominately Latino Rio Grande Valley of Texas (the collection of southernmost counties on the US-Mexico border) are one set of unexpected outcomes that, to use a Trumpian expression, a lot of people are talking about.
I grew up in the Rio Grande Valley, in Brownsville, Texas, and my family has deep multigenerational roots in Starr County and Zapata County. Trump received 47% of the vote in Starr County, as compared to 19% in 2016, and he won in Zapata County. Some may quibble and say Zapata County isn’t technically part of the Rio Grande Valley, but let’s leave that little bit of geographical debate aside.
As stated by Luis Carrasco in the Houston Chronicle:
Particularly stunning was the increase in support in the Rio Grande Valley, where counties moved decisively toward the president. Joe Biden managed to hold on and win in most, but the difference between Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance and Biden’s was dramatic: In Cameron County, home to Brownsville, there was a 20-point shift to Trump. In rural Starr County, Biden underperformed Clinton by 55 points.
These were big swings in favor of the GOP that few people saw coming. The Rio Grande Valley has historically been a strongly Democratic area. For some multiyear data on that, see this piece by Valerie Gonzalez in The Monitor, which provides a useful bar graph showing the GOP Presidential vote percentages in the Rio Grande Valley from 1992 to 2020. Texas Democrats have been placing a lot of hope on the Latino vote to turn Texas blue, or at least purple, and high voter turnout in the Rio Grande Valley has long been a big part of that plan. So increased GOP strength in the Rio Grande Valley, even if it didn’t lead to victory in the more populous counties (Hidalgo County and Cameron County), is something of concern.
This of course raises the question: why did Trump do so well in the Rio Grande Valley? This question is especially salient given that the Valley has been a focal point for debates over immigration policies, namely Trump’s Border Wall.
There’s a lot to parse out here, and I don’t want to come off like the Latino Explainer in this piece. But here are some thoughts from someone who grew up in the Valley. First, let’s be clear – the Latino vote still leans strongly towards the Democrats and in this election helped deliver Arizona to the Democratic Party. One swallow does not make a summer, so those who are suggesting that the Latino vote, specifically the working-class Latino vote, is firmly moving towards the GOP need to calm down a bit.
That being said, there is a particular sort of small-town, leave-me-alone conservatism that has a lot of support among Latinos. L.A. Times writer Gustavo Arellano has given it the name of “rancho libertarianism”. Now, that rancho libertarianism hasn’t previously necessarily led to support for the Republican Party, especially in California. But this year, it may have in the Rio Grande Valley.
Also, there are local issues. The Starr County piece linked above talks about how many people in that county work in oil fields and were concerned about the potential loss of jobs in the oil and gas industry and thought Trump was better on that issue. Also, while the Border Wall may not be popular in the Rio Grande Valley, a more restrictive approach to immigration is not unpopular and Border Patrol jobs (many if not most of which are filled by Latinos) function as a sort of Keynesian stimulus to the local economy in more rural areas of the Rio Grande Valley. Elizabeth Findell wrote about this in the Wall Street Journal.
But there is another issue that I think makes the Rio Grande Valley distinct and helps explain the higher percentage of Trump voters among Latinos there. The Rio Grande Valley is a majority-Latino area. Many Latinos who grew up there have not personally experienced discrimination for being Latino. (I know one counter to that is – they have been discriminated against but don’t know it, but I don’t want to get into a debate over false consciousness or perceptions vs. realities.) When a group is dominant and prospering in a particular area of the country, it is less likely to think of itself as a distinct group that has to band together politically as a united front against an oppressive majority. Normal politics can emerge. J.D. Long-García put this issue well in America Magazine:
One thing that generally identifies the Latinx or Hispanic or Latino/a community (see, we can’t even agree on what to call ourselves) is that we can trace our ancestry to Latin America. But listen (pero oye), in Latin America we have different political parties. We don’t all vote the same way there either.
The Rio Grande Valley isn’t Latin America, but it also isn’t a neighborhood in Dallas. People who live there are going to base their political values with a different set of background assumptions and that can mean that they are more concerned about the Second Amendment, abortion, or restrictive border policies than they would be if they were living in a circumstance where issues like employment discrimination or mistreatment by the police take the forefront. In the Rio Grande Valley, Latinos are the employers and the cops. That makes a difference.
So perhaps President Trump’s strength in the Rio Grande Valley shouldn’t be a complete surprise. Trump was able to get approximately 70 million people to vote for him, constituting a little less than half of the electorate. It’s not like Trump doesn’t have his appeal, and one shouldn’t assume Latinos will be immune to that appeal. To borrow a phrase, Latinos are like everyone else, only more so. And that is particularly true in the Rio Grande Valley.
“That being said, there is a particular sort of small-town, leave-me-alone conservatism that has a lot of support among Latinos.”
I’ve been thinking how to explain this for months, and here you did it in one sentence.
Excellent work.Report
Its not a philosophy confined to Latinos in Texas. I see it in spades in the white communities in southern Mississippi.
Which is ironic because they keep voting for Republicans who very much don’t want to leave people alone.Report
There is a book called (I think?) “The 11 Nations of America”. It looks at distinct cultural areas that have emerged and what has informed them. We divide ourselves into Red and Blue, Republican and Democrat, Conservative and Liberal. But, really, it is a lot more complex than that. It is easy to paint the Northeast as a “thing” but Boston and NY are different.
Republicans in Montana are different than Republicans in the Deep South. If we had more options, they’d probably vote differently.
As divided as we are (or seem to be), there are also blurry lines.
We may be on the verge of a RapRock situation. Eep!Report
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nine_Nations_of_North_America
It’s a really interesting read.Report
Really well done. Considering the many dialects of Spanish that are spoken south of the US-Mexico border, it should come as no surprise that Americans of Spanish descent have a broad spectrum of political views. Frankly, being a Latin American historian’s kid, the results you describe are mundane and unsurprising.
They also point out that while the Democratic Party keeps trying to be a Big Tent, they fail (as another Latinx recently pointed out) at competent election campaigning. They can’t really dial in on regional or local issues very well (e.g. oil in Texas) and they don’t down select local candidates who can win. I love me some Beto O’Rourk but he isn’t the guy (and initially it will have to be a guy) to run the Hispanic vote blue in Texas.
Thanks for writing. I look forward to your future contributions.Report
Re: Beto – it’s interesting because he might not be a great guy to juice the vote in the RGV, but is pretty good at juicing the suburbs plus the youth vote in Texas outside of the RGV.
So there’s an interesting question about whether Dems in Texas (including me in this) thought that we would eventually win with a a large Hispanic wave are shifting to a model were we don’t include that in our eventual hope (just winning enough so that it isn’t a disaster) and we make up our numbers in the cities and burbs?Report
I actually grew up in Zapata County in the 90s and 00s and 1/3rd of my Facebook news feed is that (along with my whole family being from there.
Some additional thoughts:
https://twitter.com/FernyReyes2/status/1323878085658333185?s=20Report
Excellent post, looking forward to more!Report
One swallow does not make a summer, so those who are suggesting that the Latino vote, specifically the working-class Latino vote, is firmly moving towards the GOP need to calm down a bit.
I do think that the working class Latino vote is one of those votes that can be won by appealing to it.
Republicans, if they are not stupid, can be less unappealing to working-class Latinos than Democrats that are being stupid.
If Republicans ever learn how to appeal to people (as opposed to merely being less unappealing), the Democrats will be in big trouble… and with more demographics than merely the Latinos.
But betting on Republicans not being stupid is usually not the way to bet.Report
I met a guy through a work retreat once who offered a really interesting perspective. I’m paraphrasing, but he essentially said:
“If the Republicans ever figured it out, Black folk would vote for them. We’re small-c conservative. We’re anti-drug… not pro-drug war but we see what drugs can do to our communities and we don’t like it. We’re old school. But they can’t figure it out. So we don’t vote for them.”
How representative of Black Americans was he? I don’t know. But he himself held very liberal political beliefs. However, he felt that culturally, there was a lot of overlap between Black Americans and Republicans. But Republicans just pushed them away time and time again.
I can’t say if he was right or is right (we had this conversation over 10 years ago). But it was a really interesting perspective for me to wrestle with.Report
Obama got 96% of the AA vote in 2012. 96%! Like, that’s 24 out of 25 people! That’s absolutely *NUTS*.
I mean, under normal circumstances, I’d say that that was something to look at with regards to election fraud. But then you look at Romney. And you look at Obama.
Yeah. 96% sounds about right.
There has to be outreach to the black community. And none of this bullshit “you know, Abraham *LINCOLN* was a Republican!” outreach either. Have a talk. Answer questions. Deal with being yelled at. Sit down and talk some more. Go home, go to bed, sleep on it. Go back later. Talk some more. Disagree about some stuff. Explain why. Listen to why they disagree.
On one level, you’d think “this ain’t hard!”
On another… if it’s so easy, why haven’t they done this?
And they always fall back on the “You know… Lincoln was Republican…”Report
Most working class latinos I know are republican. More so than anyone here.Report
A truism if there ever was one. Like you, I’m not holding my breath.Report
“If Republicans ever learn how to appeal to people…”
But to borrow a page from the other discussion post…what could they do to be more appealing? Literally everything they say is stuff that Latino voters agree with, except that it’s Republicans saying it and Latinoes just can’t get past that. Because they grew up with a steady drumbeat of “Republicans are bad, Republicans deport you, Republicans hate you, Republicans want to lock the border gates” and they just can’t ever not be thinking that.
The future of American politics is the Democrats splitting into some kind of Worker’s Party and Progressive Party, and the Republicans just die.Report
Maybe it’s the wall or the child separation or the outright hostility. Who knows.Report
To some extent, aesthetics is a lot of it. It’s fashionable to be left and the lefter you are, the more fashionabler it is… In *SOME* subcultures. These subcultures include media, however.
But what they could actually do?
There has to be outreach to the black community. And none of this bullshit “you know, Abraham *LINCOLN* was a Republican!” outreach either. Have a talk. Answer questions. Deal with being yelled at. Sit down and talk some more. Go home, go to bed, sleep on it. Go back later. Talk some more. Disagree about some stuff. Explain why. Listen to why they disagree.
They don’t even necessarily have to agree at the end of the day! They have to talk, though.
They have to talk.Report
I will say that they’d probably get a lot of traction from looking at stuff like Yanez shooting Castile and saying “that guy ought to be in jail”, and not following it up with a “but, ya know, maybe…”Report
You elect one guy who says you’re all rapists and you never hear the end of it.Report
“Now let me just look at how much hid numbers cratered with people of Latinx heritage from the exit polls! I can’t wait to see them! Let me just take a big sip of coffee first…”Report
Mark, this is a fantastic piece. Thank you for explaining the nuances of an otherwise muddy-to-the-outside-observer section of the American Electorate.Report