Blue Wave Coming, in Fundraising Dollars That Is
As Cizzilla himself noted on Twitter, this was written BEFORE the news of South Carolina Senate candidate Jaime Harrison’s eye-popping $57 million quarterly haul to unseat Lindsey Graham.
Between July 1 and September 30, Democrat Theresa Greenfield raised almost $29 million for her race this fall against Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa. That’s not only more than Ernst’s 2014 Democratic challenger, Bruce Braley, spent ($12 million) in the entire 2014 race, it’s more than Braley and Ernst spent (just more than $24 million) in that race.
And it’s not just Iowa.
In North Carolina, former state Democratic Sen. Cal Cunningham brought in $28 million in the third quarter of 2020 for his challenge to Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Cunningham’s fundraising total for just the last three months is more than the incumbent Democrat (Kay Hagan) who Tillis beat in the 2014 race spent on the entire campaign.
In Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) raised $22.6 million between July 1 and September 30 to support his race against Sen. Cory Gardner (R). The Democratic incumbent Gardner beat in 2014 (Mark Udall) spent a total of $20 million on that race.
The list goes on and on and on. MJ Hegar, who is challenging Sen. John Cornyn (R) in Texas, collected $13.5 million in the third quarter. Raphael Warnock, one of the Democrats taking on Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in Georgia, raised just short of $13 million.Even in states seen as long shots to be competitive for Democrats, the cash is pouring in. In Alaska, Al Gross raised $9 million in the third quarter for his race against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R). In Mississippi, former Rep. Mike Espy collected $4 million in the third quarter for a very uphill race against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R).
Also notable, in the aftermath of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, Democratic powerhouse fundrasing apparatus ActBlue put up fundraising numbers that had never been seen before, with the group claiming over $500 million in donations in the three weeks post RBG passing. Eye popping numbers that had one operative quipping:
“Is it even possible for Senate candidates to spend this kind of money?” asked NBC policy editor Benjy Sarlin, emphasizing the sheer magnitude of Cunningham’s third-quarter fundraising. “Like at some point is there just a hard limit on human attention you can command with ads and field staff?” he added.
At any rate, Team Blue has an insane amount of money going into the homestretch of the campaign.
I’d be interested in knowing the mean, median, and mode of the donations.
Cillizza comes out and says that the small dollar donations are a huge indicator (AND I AGREE!) but he doesn’t mention anything about how much of that money is small dollars…Report
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-donors-are-breaking-small-dollar-records/Report
Thank you!
Now to read it…
The online fundraising platform ActBlue announced Thursday that it raised more than $297 million from small-dollar donors for Democratic candidates and causes in the third quarter of 2019, bringing the group’s total fundraising for the year to more than $700 million.
Despite the third quarter being known as a challenging time to raise campaign funds, ActBlue said it saw more contributions during that time than any other quarter in ActBlue history—more than 10 million total. Of those contributions, 1 million came from new donors, and the average donation was $28. September 30 was its biggest day for contributions ever.
10 million donors and average donation was $28 and, yep, that’ll get you to $280 million right quick.
Republicans need to assume that 97-98% of those donors will be voting.Report
By the way, all donations to Black Lives Matter go to Act Blue.Report
True, though in fairness no small proportion (most likely the overwhelming majority) of those donors are likely located in safely blue states.Report
If it’s true that donations to BLM ended up in ActBlue’s pockets, there may be a phenomenon where many things are going on.
I mean, *WE* have donated to various BLM-adjacent charities in the last few months. If someone out there donated $20 to Black Lives Matter thinking that they were donating to Black Lives Matter and that $20 ended up in ActBlue’s coffers, ActBlue is engaging in a little sleight of hand. Someone who donates to ActBlue straight up can 97-98% be counted on to vote for the Dems come November.
Someone who gave that money to BLM? I don’t know that that can be counted on to that degree. (I can easily imagine someone liking BLM and not liking Biden/Harris, for example. Well, someone sufficiently online, anyway.)Report
George is wrong in every meaningful use of that term: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/06/donations-to-black-lives-matter-group-dont-go-to-dnc/Report
Well, then, it’s just a question of who is lying to themselves.
If it’s George, he can wake up on November whateverth and say “we had no way of knowing Biden was this far ahead! There must be shenanigans!”
If it’s ActBlue, a lot of other folks will wake up feeling déjà vu.Report
Huh?
George is wrong to say that donations to BLM goto Act Blue insofar as the money actually goes into Act Blue’s coffers.Report
When you go to BLM’s website and click “Donate”, it says:
There is no 3.
“ActBlue Charities is a registered charitable organization formed to democratize charitable .”Report
You didn’t read the link. Here is a relevant section: “ To collect donations, the website uses ActBlue Charities, a 501(c)(3) organization that specifically makes the platform available to charitable organizations.
Owens’ Instagram post features a video showing that BlackLivesMatter.com uses ActBlue for its donations. It then shows an OpenSecrets.org breakdown of expenditures by ActBlue made in the 2020 cycle; the top recipients are the presidential campaigns of Sen. Bernie Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
But the video misrepresents how ActBlue works. ActBlue isn’t itself donating money. It’s just the online platform that campaigns and groups use to solicit and collect donations.
Campaign finance experts told us that it’s false to say that donations to the Black Lives Matter group are going to the Democratic National Committee, or to Democratic presidential campaigns, simply because the website uses ActBlue.
“ActBlue lets candidates and liberal nonprofit organizations set up their separate accounts,” Michael Malbin, director of the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute, told us in a phone interview. “There’s no crossing from one account to another. If you give the money to Sanders, it does not go to Biden.”
Malbin — a professor of political science at the University at Albany, State University of New York — said candidates and organizations use ActBlue “for the ease of transactions.”
“ActBlue has no discretion over” where to direct individuals’ contributions, he said. The money “you see coming through ActBlue is coming through it, not from it.”
A similar platform used for Republican fundraising efforts, WinRed, launched in 2019.
“When you donate on an ActBlue or ActBlue Charities page, the donation is earmarked for the group listed on the form,” Caleb Cade, a spokesperson for ActBlue, told us in an email. “We pass along the contribution directly to the receiving campaign or entity. We do not choose the recipient of the contribution, the donor does.”
In a statement to FactCheck.org, the Black Lives Matter Global Network’s managing director, Kailee Scales, said that the claims about the money being routed to Democrats are part of “an organized disinformation campaign against BLM, from actors clearly trying to blunt the growing support for this movement.”
“All contributions to the DNC are publicly reported to the FEC and review of FEC reports will confirm there has never been any donation from this organization,” she said.”Report
My paycheck for protesting in June was issued from Black Lives Matter inc., A Wholly Owned Subsidiary of (((Soros, International))).
Now the reimbursement check for black balaclava and cement milkshakes, well okay that came from Antifa Quartermaster Resources, LLC.Report
I would think very little of it is small dollar donations. That big and fast with such a non-existent candidate is probably corporate. Transnational corporations, hedge fund managers, sketchy charities, the CIA, the Pentagon’s generals, China, Russia, and all the Bush neo-cons are throwing their financial weight behind Biden, even though Nancy’s already formed a commission to investigate “Presidential fitness”, which everybody knows isn’t aimed at Trump, but Biden. The powers-that-be intend to install who they want to install.Report
It’s certainly interesting. Though I’m equally interested in how Trumps campaign managed to melt away their entire fundraising advantage with so little to show for it. George assured me back in the beginning of the year that the deployment of those funds by Trumps people would be devastating. He did imply it’d be devastating for their opponents though maybe he didn’t outright say so.Report
Has it melted away? Are they still on track, but spending it wisely? Poorly?
Are the Dems out fundraising the R’s due to sheer panic, to the same effect as HRC’s campaign?Report
Well the poll numbers don’t seem to suggest it’s been spent wisely. The proof in the pudding won’t be known until November of course.Report
Well, considering that at the last rodeo the Dems spent 3x as much as Trump, and had the polls to prove it! But alas, no joy. So, I would say it is too soon to tell.
But, as you said, the proof is in the pudding, and we shall see next month.Report
HRC’s polling, it should be noted, was enormously closer to Trumps than Biden’s has been and was also considerably more volatile and included far more undecided voters. None of those moderating factors are present this year. Maybe Trump will pull it out again, but it seems extremely unlikely.Report
What DO they spend the money on? Advertising? Phone banks? I keep getting hit up with random texts from Dem folks asking me to volunteer time to call potential voters? Why do they need me to volunteer my time if they have this war chest?Report
Their labor may be largely free but the equipment, the facility and the specialists aren’t. That said a lot of money goes into advertising space.Report
Consultants. Whether or not they overcharge I leave up to the donors.
But, there is so much money sloshing around that is kinda ridiculous, considering what happened last time.Report
Hey, all those rioters and looters don’t work for free, much less fly around the country to various spots that need torching. They get put up in four-star hotels, too. I think the FBI has just been collecting evidence for a RICO investigation of the funders, though. It’s illegal to pay people to commit crimes.Report
Of course we demand to be paid.
We’re not Communists, after all.Report