Ordinary World: Juneteenth Edition

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  1. Michael Cain
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    says:

    JT8: I listened to this when it first went up, and the question I was left with was “How many people does it take to go from being an outpost to a colony?” Bases in Antarctica and the ISS are clearly outposts. Basically, they make no effort to become self-sufficient or to rise to the level of technology required to put them in place. Lots of people talk about colonizing the Moon; Elon Musk talks about colonizing Mars; how many people?

    The question gets asked, indirectly at least, in a variety of speculative fiction. Heinlein’s lunar colonists in The Moon is a Harsh Mistress clearly number in the millions. They’re still not self-sufficient. Two examples: manned spacecraft and big computers are come from Earth, not local producers. James Blish’s Cities in Flight books imply millions in a couple of different ways. Small planetary colonies drop back to lower technology levels, creating markets for the migrant cities’ technology. Even hundreds of cities with populations totaling millions struggle. Exchange of specialists and technology between the cities is a regular occurrence.

    My own guess is that the minimum population required to maintain our current level of technology is around 30-40 million. Very few of those people will be involved with the leading edge of technology. Far more of them will be farmers, teachers, nurses, bartenders, etc.Report

    • Andrew Donaldson in reply to Michael Cain
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      says:

      Maybe, probably, because my professional background was in transportation and logistics, I find this whole thing fascinating. The nomenclature of “colony/colonization” and “self-sufficient” tends to lead people down particular lines of thought. I think (and brought up) how some folks who actually seriously examine these things keep pointing out a moon or Mars facility would first and foremost have to be – in essence – a factory, making food, air, and water, or more specifically making/harvesting things like hydrogen and oxygen to do so. Most folks and a lot of SciFi envision a Moon/Mars colony being Jamestown in space, or an all-inclusive resort, but neither of those really fit the requirement. So envisioning a mostly automated factory is the skinny end of the population scale. One the other is something Michael talked about in the episode, trying to do space travel with less heavy ground support. It takes enormous amounts of manpower and support to send 2-3 astronauts back and forth to low earth orbit. It took a yet-to-be repeated nationalized effort to put 12 people on the moon for a few days at a time. If by “colony” you mean folks going back and forth those ratios of ground support to mission crew is going to be massive. So the other end of that population spectrum – fully self suffiecient on Mars/Moon to ground support their own ops and return trips, is probably going to be a much larger population than anyone realizes. But again, logisitcs guy thoughts, having even hundreds of folks up there is daunting. To use your Antartica example, look at what it takes for a facility like McMurdo that goes from 200ish in the winter to 1200ish in the summer season…now move it 238K miles further out for the moon, plus space…still seems generations away, whatever Elon might say.Report

    • James K in reply to Michael Cain
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      says:

      There’s a solid treatment of this question in A City on Mars, they also conclude the number is in the millions at minimum.Report

  2. Jaybird
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    says:

    One thing that I hadn’t known about was that Lambda School imploded. I thought that it was a brilliant idea: You have decentralized schooling and teach people how to become coders. The catch is that they don’t pay up front. They pay when they get a job coding and *ONLY* if they make more than $70,000/year in a *CODING* job. Then they owe a percentage of their salary for two years and then they’re free and clear.

    Sounds great, right?

    Well, as it turns out, the quality of education was somewhere around the quality of a Boot Camp and the promises about stuff like “only pay if you get hired as a coder” turned out to not be honored by the hedge funds that they sold their students’ debt to.

    Yikes.

    Lambda School crashed and burned after burning through $120 Million dollars.

    HOW IN THE HELL DO YOU BURN THROUGH $120 MILLION DOLLARS?

    Anyway, I thought it was going to change things. As it turns out… it didn’t.

    No more than a boot camp will turn a new hire into a coder.Report

  3. Michael Cain
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    says:

    HOW IN THE HELL DO YOU BURN THROUGH $120 MILLION DOLLARS?

    Many years ago — early 1990s — I was working at a giant telecom company. The company created a project to build a new billing system without some of the serious limitations of the old system. The project burned through $150 million dollars and produced not a single line of usable code. The company reorganized the technology part of the business for the sole purpose of putting a particular SVP and a particular 200 people into a single organization, fired them all, then three months later reorganized back into something sane.

    If you’re looking for specific methods, consultants are good. As I recall, the group of consultants that did an incredibly obtuse object-oriented design got a million dollars. When a couple of us who were far enough away from the project that we could safely ask questions asked how big the server farm would be to use the architecture to handle 14 million customers, they said they didn’t know but for two million dollars and another nine months they could tell us. Buying hardware because the schedule says it’s time to buy the hardware even though there’s no actual software architecture is very good.

    ETA: Misthreaded. This should be attached to JB’s 5:43 pm comment.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Michael Cain
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      says:

      From what I understand, an employee that makes $X generally costs the company that employs them somewhere around $2X.

      So, for ease of use, we’ll say the employee makes $100,000/year. After social security and insurance and 401k matching and this and that and the other thing, this guy costs the company $200,000/year. So he’d probably need to bring in at least $200,001 for it to be worth a single dollar to the company.

      How many teachers did Lambda School have? Googling tells me somewhere around 180.

      Let’s assume that they only made $100,000 each.

      That’s… $180,000,000. No, wait… that’s what they take home. The cost to the company? $360,000,000.

      Oh.

      I see.Report

      • Michael Cain in reply to Jaybird
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        says:

        Hence the common start-up practice of paying crap, with limited benefits, jammed into minimum space, but with a pile of shares and/or options. Intel millionaires. Microsoft millionaires. Lambda School was almost certainly spending the money differently than on generous salary/benefits for <200 employees.

        Nvidia's book value is somewhere over $3 trillion right now. How many of the early people are cashing in and leaving?Report

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