Whelp... this being 2020 I'm just going to stop fighting the fates and assume the results will be disappointing to everyone... Biden skulks into the White House and the Senate remains Republican. But at this point that's based on nothing but pure augury, by which I mean 538.

If that happens, looking forward the the love and gratitude that will be showered on White Men for saving the union.

Whelp... I'm calling it a night... 207 Biden to 148 Trump.

I think the post-mortems are a bit early, and I expect to wake up to a Biden lead... but I'm concerned that the underperformance of Biden will leave the gate open for challenges in a state or two. Needed a clean win (one way or another) and this doesn't look like that. Dang.

PBS is getting that Hillary Supporter on the convention floor look. Soldiering on, but voices quavering and confidence shaken. Everyone seems pre-occupied and missing marks/talking points. Earpieces must be buzzing.

Is it weird yet?

If Trump wins because of the two-fist-two-step to YMCA I'm going to have to turn in my Time Capsule Prognostication Card.

They let Karl Rove back on Fox on Election night?

Never had that before, looks like something I'd like.

Yeah, it's probably mostly FL... I bought high on FL when polling was showing a big Biden spread among seniors. Looks like I bought peak FL.

Ok, I know it's *very* early... but I keep saying "huh" a lot. Like about as often as I said "huh" in 2016.

PBS Called Warner (VA Senate) with a huge graphic showing Warner behind 45% to Gade 55% and <1% in. Probably true, but man, the execution is way off... get your graphics aligned with your call people.

I'm gonna have to move to something stronger than Kombucha... maybe some Drambuie - orange for American Solidarity Party

Invoke the originalist meaning of First Past the Post.

Biden 3
Trump 8

Not looking good for Biden...

Is it over yet?

Different feeds then... I haven't seen any 'smart' conservatives calling it for Trump with any confidence... I've seen the usual sort of rallying/cheering/bucking-up the faithful types of calls.

In fact among the 'smart' non-Lincoln conservatives Henry Olsen predicts a blood-bath... and he's an actual data kinda guy.

ASP made it onto 8 official ballots.

Didn't make it onto 9 at all. The other 33 are a flavor of write-in. Definitely requires an organization that's distributed in all 50 states and within those states many require signatures from every county... so have to organize across the entire state as well. It's a process that requires actual ground troops, not simply an idea and some $$.

Oh sure... wait for *all* the pre-election polls to come in.

Harshing my buzz man.

Well... assuming my Twitter feed is a neutral observer... it's gonna be a BIG day for Solidarity... like YUGE.

[Is that how Twitter works?]

Plausible... but a little depressing. Neither side will concede on election day (nor should they, probably)... I'm just hoping the process while delayed is at least organized, competent and swift.

The narrative building BS will be overwhelming though. Give us strength to remain properly agnostic through it all.

Working on my Post Mortem of how I failed to correctly pick the winner...

"I know why Biden lost, but I know not how."

SOLIDARI... ok, maybe not. But hey, at least my candidate personally thanked me on Twitter. I told my family that it will be cool to see our votes individually tabulated in Virginia as the count goes from 4 votes to 9 votes.

In years past I would assume the Libertarian vote would follow the Liberal Social issues into supporting the Dems if someone like Trump were on the ballot. But, from what I'm reading, I'm not getting that vibe at all. I am not a libertarian expert, but the vibe I'm getting from that faction is that the Left is the bigger threat to liberty. But on the contrarian hand, I'm not sure that we won't see an increase in third party voting. So... my prediction is that we see the same (or nearly the same) levels of third party votes. But if I'm wrong, the break will be mostly for Trump.

Yeah... this is it (I still think the Riots are local vs. National factors, esp compared to Covid).

Part of my unscientific analysis comes from my small Red area and my even smaller parish. Covid is *the* dividing line... about half are wearing masks, but about 80% would be gettable Trump (well, Republican) votes. The fact that half are wearing masks is a real divide.

Sociologically it's interesting... the Mask/No-Mask doesn't break by Theological, Liturgical, or Economic position... seems to be correlated directly to support for Trump (or the Republican Party). It makes me sad that this became part of political wars, but it did.

Berlusconi is a good comp.

Berlusconi's schtick crumbled with actual populists (left and right) who came after him.

As a critique from the Horseshoe Right... it isn't lost on me that the best defense of Trump is that he's Jeb! without the magnetic charm. That *ought* to be disqualifying in its own right... at least by Trump's own definition of a successful Trump Presidency.