Brace Yourselves: The Debate is Coming
ABC has released the debate’s rules:
The debate will be held in Philadelphia at the National Constitution Center and will have no audience in the room.
Microphones will be live only for the candidate whose turn it is to speak and muted when the time belongs to another candidate. Only the moderators will be permitted to ask questions.
A coin flip was held virtually on Tuesday to determine the podium placement and the order of closing statements; former President Trump won the coin toss and chose to select the order of statements. The former president will offer the last closing statement, and Vice President Harris selected the right podium position on screen, i.e., stage left.
There will be no opening statements, and closing statements will be two minutes per candidate.
Each candidate will be allotted two minutes to answer each question with a two-minute rebuttal, and an additional minute for a follow-up, clarification, or response.
Campaign staff may not interact with candidates during commercial breaks.
These rules all seem straightforward enough, seems to me. The only reason that I’d see to push back against any one of them is to gauge how my opponent would argue against any given change.
Like in the peace talks with Vietnam, there were arguments over whether the chairs should have square backs or round backs and the point of that argument is not that square backs are egalitarian or round backs are racist, but you want to see if the other side pushes back against this or that meaningless demand or whether they take a position of “yeah, yeah, whatever you want”.
The main one that surprised me was “There will be no opening statements” but that’s probably just a technicality. The first question will have “would you like to ignore what I’ve just asked you and make an opening statement instead?” as an implied *REAL* first question.
The main thing on everybody’s mind is: Will Harris win the debate handily or will it be a tie like Trump’s debate with Biden was a tie?
Is there a question where Harris will hit it out of the park? What is the topic likely to be?
Is there a question where Trump will hit it out of the park? What is the topic likely to be?
Will there be an “I’m Talking!” moment despite the rules? Will the candidates pull the old “you should ask them about my preferred topic!” beratement of the moderator? Will the moderator acquiesce?
Will a fly land on somebody’s head?
Lay your guesses down now because on Tuesday night all bets are off.
Ohh i have some important not watching the debate to get to on tuesday night. Gonna scan some reactions though. I predict trump will lie up a f*cking storm. If i had to make a tough guess it would be that Harris will call him out strong on some lie or crazy shite he says which will provoke trump to keep being a raging moron.Report
Just to get a quick baseline: Did you believe that Biden won his debate against Trump because Trump obviously lied so many times and the American People could tell?Report
I have no idea. Trump should be able to beat her on the issues, but that’s not his strength. If he’s focused, and only attacks her personally when she’s attacking him personally, he should do fine. Harris is remarkably bad on her feet for a lawyer. Her best hope is to get under Trump’s skin and bait him into bullying her. It won’t help her with male voters, but that’s not what she’s looking for. They’re both bad at this and rusty.Report
How in the world does he beat her on issues? Border crossings are below his “best” numbers; unemployment remains below anything he achieved; real wage growth exceed what happened under his watch; Biden-Harris actually passed infrastructure funding that helping every state.
To say nothing of the fact that he is now a convicted felon; an adjudicated rapist; the owner and head of a company convicted of civil fraud; And continues at every turn to threaten democracy since he knows he’s not likely to win.Report
I’m having trouble finding comparable data on border crossings, encounters, apprehensions, and probably some other category I haven’t figured out yet. If you have time series data, please link it.
I’m looking at the median usual weekly real earnings data on FRED, and it shows an increase of 4.9% in real wages from 2017-1q to 2020-1q (the last quarter before covid hit). I don’t know where you want to draw the line for when covid ended, but the 2024-2q value is .3% higher than 2020-1q. If there’s some other stat you’d rather use, please post it.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Also from FRED, the unemployment rate in Februrary 2020 was 3.5% and is currently 4.2%.Report
Additionally, I wouldn’t say that those are necessarily the issues. Statista / YouGov lists the five most important issues as of July as inflation, immigration, health care, jobs & the economy, and abortion. I may be biased, but I suspect that Israel and Ukraine carry some weight as well.Report
“The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a fourth consecutive month to 2.9% in July 2024, the lowest since March 2021, compared to 3% in June and below forecasts of 3%.”
It’s already solved! Why are people complaining?
They’re selfish, that’s why. They’re selfish.Report
I’m kinda shocked looking around online at how little polling there’s been about issues.Report
Here’s a poll question:
“Are you a good person?”
Yeah, I’m looking around and I figured that I’d use a cheat code and check out RCP’s “SOTU” tab and…
We have Biden job approval and “Right Direction/Wrong Track” polling and… yeah. I’m not finding issue polling.
(That “Wrong Track” number ain’t great, though.)Report
The best border summary I have found is the first graph here – https://usafacts.org/articles/what-can-the-data-tell-us-about-unauthorized-immigration/#:~:text=As%20of%20June%202024%2C%20the,reported%20border%20encounters%20in%202024.
It does show encounters as going up then down then up again. It also shows apprehensions and inadmissibles – people turned back before they cross – as also up. Which of course makes sense in that the more people you encounter, the more people will get arrested. The underlying CBP data isn’t helping as they are only tracking FY 21 to date (although this makes sense as its the current administration’s tenure). What the available data do tell me is the CBP is doing a great job intercepting and apprehending people, despite Congress’s refusal to grant the Administration’s $800 Million additional budget request.Report
That shows apprehensions as miniscule in late 2019 and early 2020 compared to the Biden years, right? And it doesn’t address border crossings.Report
CBP seems to be publishing statistics that don’t include crossings, which various organizations then extrapolate using different criteria. Which I find amusing since none of those organizations actually have access tot he data.
That aside – so what? More people form the extremely broken countries to our south come north seeking economic and political safety during our boom times. That’s a long standing trend. And until, blacks left agriculture en masse in the 1950’s and 1960’s it wasn’t a big deal.
So if you want to debate who is better at catching people we can, but I still think the better use of time is dealing with the drivers. American economic prosperity is a significant driver – so is the very marginal penalty paid by American business for hiring these folks.Report
I don’t want to debate yet. I want to understand your statement that “border crossings are below his ‘best’ numbers”. Is it a statement you’d want to stand by? If so, what are you basing it on?Report
Vox
Washington Post
I could certainly go on . . . .Report
That mashes together the assertion that crossings dropped with the statistics for deportations increasing over Trump’s total. That doesn’t really answer the question.Report
OK, so the stats on border crossings are less reliable, but everything I’ve seen indicates the Biden years being substantially higher. I showed that weekly real earnings was growing slower under Biden than Trump (leaving out covid), and that’s not exactly the same as real wages, so if you’ve got other data, please present it. And I’ve shown our current unemployment rate is higher than Trump’s best.
Can we both agree that the three stats you proposed are wrong? If not, why not?Report
The stats aren’t wrong – they jus don’t mesh with the vibe. Which I keep being told is important. Even when the vibes are 180 degrees away from what people are living.
That said, unemployment at 4% vs. unemployment at 3.5% (which it has been under Biden) is not a material distinction. not in a nation where unemployment averaged 6.4% under Trump (heavily influenced by Covid). And weekly real earnings growing more slowly mean sthey are still growing – and probably now over their post-covid shock. Its also worth noting that illegal immigration grew under Trump and that the number of uninsured Americans grew slightly as well.
Trump wasn’t better for the economy.Report
You made the claim that unemployment is lower now than it ever was under Trump. I pointed out that that’s wrong, and now you’re saying that it doesn’t matter.
You made the claim that real wage growth was stronger under Biden than under Trump. Now you’re saying that they’re growing more slowly, but still growing.
Your stats are literally wrong, and you’re defending them by saying that they’re literally true but don’t mesh with the vibe. The truth doesn’t mesh with the left’s vibe, so you’re denying the truth rather than admitting it. And you claim to be a literalist?Report
Biden’s average monthly unemployment rate is 4.1%; Trump’s is 5. Seems to me Biden wins that horse race. If yo want to get to specific data points – unemployment under Biden dipped to 3.4% at one point which is the lowest according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics since 1969. Sure it’s come up a few partial percentage points, but its still lower.
Looking at wage growth – whil it has grown by percentage at a rate that is now slowing, it has gone above wage growth in Trump’s administration, and has now surpassed inflation rates (https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25325796/mDDrw_wages_are_catching_up_with_inflation.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100&_gl=1*rky8mw*_ga*MTU1MDA5ODQ1Ny4xNzI1OTAwNDAw*_ga_C3QZPB4GVE*MTcyNTk4MDYxMC4yLjEuMTcyNTk4MDYzOC4zMi4wLjA.)
So yes the data meshes with the democrats vibe, but not the country’s vibe – which I blame the legacy media for.Report
The literalist who moves the goalposts for the sake of his ideology isn’t a literalist, he’s an ideologue. It’s possible to find three statistics that make the Biden years look better than the Trump years, but you didn’t do that, you began with three (as near as I can tell) false claims.
Now, to be fair, I don’t think that Biden deserves all the blame for inflation; nor does Trump deserve all the credit for his low unemployment. But you have to begin with the truth. You can’t just make up things or grossly misstate them without making your side look foolish.Report
Um right . . . says the guy who wants the GOPs Project 2025 policy agenda without the baggage that is the GOP’s ticket. A set of policies mostly base don lies.
Sorry man, trying to pull the moral high ground here isn’t gonna get you much. Except maybe the derision it deserves.Report
Even if true, that doesn’t make my stats wrong. You started this conversation with three stats, all of which were exactly opposite what you said.Report
If I am Harris I am looking at this as being the beginning of the 4th quarter, and I just received the kick off. She has to score a TD on this drive for the comeback to have a chance. Everything from July 21 on has been exciting, but it has also merely been turning it back into a game. Trump still leads by 3. At some point she will have to throw.Report
One of my buds invited me over Tuesday night for a debate party.
I winced.
There’s so many things that could go wrong and so few that could go right.
And you can’t say “I’m rooting for injuries”.Report
I plan to watch it due to my demented sense of civic duty.
But also if we have learned anything in the last few months it’s that these debates are still really important.Report
Donald Trump posted about Marijuana to his Truth Social:
One problem that Harris has is that she has to pretend that she is not affiliated with the incumbent (beyond taking credit for every good thing that happened).Report
On Friday, Politico reported: Harris team worried she’ll be ‘handcuffed’ by debate rules set by Biden
My question:
WHO IN THE HELL IS LEAKING THIS STUFF TO THE PRESS OH MY GOSH GET YOUR TEAM UNDER SOME FREAKING CONTROL!!!
“We look forward to this debate and love how Donald Trump will no longer be able to interrupt a Strong Woman of Color like we know he’s spent his whole life doing. ABC has officially said to Trump: ‘Be Quiet. She’s Talking.'”
What the hell? DOES ANYBODY KNOW HOW TO PLAY THIS GAME?Report
The game is iterated.Report
Oh, so you give away a little bit of “Harris sucks” today in order to sneak a lot of “Harris is even more betterer than Biden!” tomorrow?Report
The game is iterated.Report
Yes, indeed. That’s why you say stuff like “We look forward to having the rules that we picked and Trump grudgingly accepted and we’re going to kick his butt!” and not “four Harris campaign officials argued that she will be “handcuffed” by the rules, which were negotiated by President Joe Biden’s team earlier this summer”.Report
Is this debate going to sway anyone? No one that I know, anyway. It might be good viewing from a comedic standpoint, but no one’s going to learn anything about either candidate that we don’t already know.Report
Let me get a baseline: Did we learn anything about Biden at the last debate?Report
We learned that Trump lies. I remember people here saying that like it was a revelation.Report
Biden destroyed his campaign last time. That’s really rare and impressive. Probably also needed.
I have already decided what I’m voting on, who that means I have to vote for, and why. So assuming we don’t have another drop out or a successful assassination, I’m done.
I’ll skip the debate and watch the highlights later.Report
Debates remind me of important Sales presentations… it isn’t really about ‘debating’ it’s about execution and giving your audience confidence that you understand what the problem(s) is and that you have a viable solution, and lastly they trust that you can execute that solution.
To the extent that people think Harris or Trump ought to ‘destroy’ the other candidate with their debating skills…those people a plain wrong and should be kicked out of the prep room. The proper preparation for the evening should be focused on Trust.
Both candidates have serious (and different) weaknesses in the Trust department. The ‘winner’ of the debate will be the person who undermines the other’s Trust quotient while defending theirs.
Trump, I expect, will pull out (unpopular) position after position that Kamala has publicly held; we know she has changed her mind on those positions (or, we’re told she has)… but that’s her job — show that she LOVES fracking; best thing ever… throw some environmentalists under the proverbial bus. Right now she has a ‘checkbox’ position on all of these items. She needs to make people Trust that she’s really on the popular side of the issue and that they can trust her to deliver.
Trump’s Trust issue, however, is not really the issue that Dems have been pushing… it isn’t about Democracy (honestly, Dems have Trust issues on Democracy that y’all are kinda deaf to, but I digress). Harris will be successful if she undermines Trump’s Trust issues on Abortion (which I expect she’ll do), but if she’s smart she doesn’t trumpet her own extreme positions, instead she points out how he’s UnTrustworthy to his own team — he’s willing to betray anyone for his own gain. Can you really Trust him on China? Where was he on the CHIPS act? What about his donor’s interests in China? What about his family’s interests? Can you really trust his economic policies when the only real thing he did as president was pass an unfunded Tax Cut that heavily benefited his own bottom line? Are you sure he’s on your side? Is that really his MO?
See, the trick is you have to exploit the Trust issues that Normies have about the other guy… not the Trust issues your team has about the other guy. Similarly, you know your trust is going to be attacked… can you defend it in such a way that Normies think you’re reliable?
The thing about presentations is that it isn’t the content, exactly, it’s command of the material and the ability to answer objections with clarity and simplicity. That’s all a debate really is… it’s not about rhetorical flourishes or gotcha moments. If, however, a gotcha moment arises… it’s command of the material that let’s you capitalize on it!Report
Been busy and missed out on all the fun other threads. So, anticlimactically here are my grades:
Harris:
Undermining Trump: A/A+
Building Trust: C+
Main takeaway: the muted mics helped her; instead of playing prosecutor and fact-checker-in-chief, she seeded her responses with trigger phrases that sent him off on egomaniacal rants. I thought the comment about people walking out of his rallies was a little too obvious… but it turns out that obvious plays.
Trump:
Undermining Harris: D
Building Trust: F-
Main takeaway: Moron. Not only did he chase every delusion with which Harris taunted him; but in so doing he enabled her to dodge answering questions about her positions… AND… it so distracted him that he wasn’t able to redirect or plant any landmines about her previous positions.
In some ways it was a mirror of Biden’s debate: Trump came across as an old man yelling at clouds. Where Biden couldn’t talk, Trump couldn’t shut up.Report
I’m certainly waiting with bated breath. On one hand Harris has a rep as being an able enough prosecutor and performing well in Senate hearings. On the other hand she hasn’t done any of that stuff recently and her most recent debate performances were in ’19 which were not particularly good.
Trump strikes me as more of a known factor. The only question is if he changes debate manners to address Harris. Heck I have doubts he even can. He’s not shown a great command of details in the past so I’m unsure if he can bring specific talking points against Harris specifically. I also am unsure how Harris will react to Trumps word salad manner of “debating” which is its own very distinct thing.
One thing is for sure, the “Debates are meaningless and accomplish little” coterie should be considered well and truly thumped after this cycle.Report