Sleepwalking Towards Another Trump Presidency

Unless something dramatically changes in the political environment in the next four months, we are headed towards a second Trump presidency. Its as simple as that.

I haven’t written on here about an election-related event since Biden’s inauguration. In the four years since I started reviewing movies, making predictions for the Oscars, and joined two critics groups. But just because I put down my amateur psephology hat in favor of a film critic one doesn’t mean I haven’t been paying attention this whole time. I’ve been doing my own personal polling averages on excel to keep track of public opinion. I followed the bad 2021 off-year elections for Democrats, the Democratic overperformance in the 2022 midterms, and last year’s good off-year elections for Democrats. I saw Biden poll as a popular President for about seven months, and I’ve seen his numbers refuse to shift from the negative range since the Fall of 2021. And in the last couple of months I’ve been feeling like a bystander watching a sinking ship heading straight towards an iceberg that will finish the job while friends and acquaintances of mine have been assuring me that Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump again – making me feel like I’ve been living in a different reality than everyone else as I pour through the data I’m inputting into my spreadsheets. This anxiety is why I decided to become a full-time film critic instead.

As those who have read my past pieces on elections or public opinion know I am extremely data driven; my saying is and always has been “I trust the polls until they’re proven wrong.” And in particular I am a student of following historical trends as well. It’s that kind of mindset that lead me to become increasingly bullish on Democrats to pull off a midterm wave in 2018, and made me think the 2020 race was Biden’s to lose going all the way back to when he entered the Democratic primary. Not to say I’m some nostradamus either. I was wrong about Hillary winning like everyone else, I was wrong when I thought polling error would be less in 2020 than in 2016, and as time has passed I’ve been wondering what drugs I was on to believe neither Biden nor Trump would run again when I wrote my last psephology article – something I realized pretty early into Biden’s term was a fantasy to have ever thought.

I feel compelled to write about this election now because I feel like the disaster that was the first debate woke people up to something I’ve been seeing for months – Trump is likely going to win this rematch. My X feed on debate night was reminiscent of election night 2016, and as I watched the horrified reactions from left-leaning accounts all I could think to myself was “Now you guys are starting to realize Biden is in trouble?!”. We’ve been sleepwalking towards a second Trump term for some time now, and it’s like the debate suddenly woke a bunch of folks up to that (I think very likely) possibility.

Am I saying that Biden has absolutely no chance at all to still win this? Not necessarily. There’s still some things in his favor that could help him down the stretch, and I’ll get to those. But at a certain point you can’t keep looking at where the chips are falling and tell yourself this is a pure toss-up race. We have arrived in a territory where if Biden were to come back and win this, it would arguably be a once-in-a-lifetime black swan event given incumbents in his position with four months to go outright lose their reelection bids. At best for Biden this presidential election is currently rated Tilts R, but in my opinion it’s probably more along the lines of a Lean to Likely R race with the caveat that Republicans have nominated the one dude who could still lose this anyways. And make no mistake about it, if Trump loses then it will be an all-timer in electoral choke jobs. More on this later.

In this piece I will go point-by-point on why I objectively believe with four months to go the election should be considered leaning Trump’s way, why Biden would need to pull off a historic comeback these next four months of the likes we’ve never seen in the modern age to win, and if there’s any chance for Biden to still pull this out what would be the small miracles that could help him do that.

 

– Other Than Being A Rematch, This Is Not 2020

2024 is the first presidential rematch between the same two candidates from the previous cycle in 68 years, and this time around the winner of the previous campaign is on his heels while the previous loser has advantages he didn’t have previously. Other than the two same men going at it, 2024 is not 2020.

In 2020 against a backdrop of a country at social unrest, dealing with a pandemic that crippled the economy, and an unpopular Republican president that wasn’t even voted for by the plurality of voters in 2016, the mood in the air was change and the well-liked and respected challenger was winning on various fronts. Then-challenger Biden was leading the national and swing state polls by clear margins, had more paths to 270 than the incumbent, was favored in every type of forecast for the election, was competing against an incumbent with negative job approval ratings who he happened to have much better favorable ratings than, was being picked by poll respondents as the more physically fit and mentally healthy of the two, was the most trusted on honesty and almost all of the top issues of the race, and had clear leads in polling on who was seen as the debates’ winner. The only advantage then incumbent Trump had was incumbency, an electoral college bias, and a good approval rating on his handling of the Economy.

Now in 2024 against a backdrop of a country going through some great economic growth and low unemployment, the consumer sentiment nevertheless is mediocre and incumbent Biden’s approval ratings on the economy have been wrecked thanks to a decades-worst inflation crisis that has taken years to cool. The now-challenging Trump leads in the national and swing state polls by modest but consistent margins, has more paths to 270 than the incumbent and seems to still have the electoral college bias on his side, is favored in most forecasts for the election, is competing against an incumbent with negative job approval ratings who he happens to have better favorable ratings than, is being picked by poll respondents as the more physically fit and mentally healthy of the two, is trusted on most of the top issues of the race, and has a clear lead on who won the first debate of the campaign. The only advantage Biden has is incumbency, the fact most fundamentals-based models predict him to win, experts are still rating the race winnable for him, and he still leads on questions of character.

The table I’ve provided below only makes it more clear how much has switched around in Trump’s favor this time around versus four years ago. Folks who keep treating this like an apple-to-apples comparison to 2020 are pricing in Biden advantages that are just not there anymore. This is a pretty stunning reversal of fortune given we are talking about a rematch, and both the 2016 and 2020 Trump campaigns could have only dreamed to have as much in their favor as they clearly do this time around.

 

 

– Biden Isn’t Just Unpopular, He’s Losing Re-Election Unpopular

You might argue four months is a long time for a campaign to still be decided, and while I wouldn’t completely disagree it’s kind of hard to see a dramatic shift in the political environment in just four months. If you ever do see dramatic shifts in the race it tends to happen more with volatile open-seat races than the incumbent seeking re-election cycles that become referendums on the guy in the White House. It’s not that presidents can’t get more popular in the final four months, in fact Presidents usually get more popular the closer we get to election day, but presidents as unpopular as Biden is at this point in the race don’t tend to win re-election.

Since 1948 only three presidents were posting under 50% approval ratings this far out and still won re-election. Two of those three are Bush the son in 2004 and Obama in 2012, who were both in the high 40s and had advantages in the polls and forecast models then that Biden currently does not. Biden is in a much more precarious spot way down in the thirties as I write this piece; the same spot presidents Carter, Bush the father, and Trump were four months before they lost their respective re-election bids. The president that has had approvals close to as low as Biden has at this point in the race and still won is Truman back in 1948. And the kicker is Truman’s disapproval rating at the time was actually just 44% thanks to a large number of those with no opinion on the president. In comparison Biden’s disapprovals are in the high fifties. Which means if Biden comes back and somehow wins this, we are talking about him doing a much more impressive come-from-behind win than the most infamous come-from-behind win in U.S political history.

In four months Biden historically needs to be at around 50%+ to win re-election. Only Truman has had worse numbers and still won, and once again there’s a kicker when it comes to the example of him – Truman’s final approval rating before election day was found in the summer and not late October as pollsters back then didn’t poll the president’s job ratings while polling the horse race. At 38% with four months to go, Biden is very unlikely to suddenly become popular by election day. It’s one thing to come back from such numbers over a long period, but in dramatic fashion in just a few months in the middle of intense polarization? I have my doubts.

 

 

– Hated And Convicted Felon Trump Is Less Unpopular Overall Than Biden

There is the argument that Biden doesn’t need to get his job approval numbers in the positive range to win re-election because of Trump’s weaknesses and own unpopularity, but there’s an issue with that thought – Biden currently has worse favorable ratings than Trump. Biden has been averaging favorable ratings over at 538 of around -18. Trump’s favorable rating average in comparison? -11. Both awful numbers but Trump is enjoying the lead in the favorability gap, something he didn’t have in either 2016 or 2020.

Soak that in. A convicted felon has higher favorable ratings than the sitting president of the United States. And keep in mind these same polls have shown most respondents agree with the jury verdict on Trump’s conviction, so it’s not even a situation where the electorate is sympathetic to Trump’s legal plights. Polling also makes it clear Biden wins most questions on honesty and character. But polling has also shown that Biden’s age issues are of more of a concern to voters than the conviction or how they think of the candidates’ personal morals.

I personally don’t for one bit buy Biden is senile and out of it mentally; I do buy he’s not as sharp as he used to be and looks and sounds like a man in his eighties. But the electorate at large does believe Biden is too old and out of it, to the point they prefer a convicted felon to him because they are that convinced he’s not fit for office. If Biden is to pull off what I’d argue would be a historic comeback, he’d have to change this perception and I just find it hard to see how he does that given the debate only made concerns about his age and mental health expand even further among the electorate.

 

 

– Incumbents Trailing At The Start Of July Almost Always Go On To Lose

Another argument one might choose in favor of a Biden comeback is that he’s staying competitive in polling and trails by small margins. I would agree that could be a legit glimmer of hope for him. The guy is incredibly unpopular and yet still remains competitive. However going back in polling history I found that successfully re-elected incumbents almost always lead at this point in the race. The only aberrations being Truman in 1948 of course, and Bush the son having a rough Summer in 2004. That said, there is something to note about the fact the table below highlights how things can still shift in horse race polling between now and November. But also note how small the shifts between the final four months have been post Clinton’s reelection. Based on the history, Biden could take a two point deficit and change it to a two point lead (which would put an electoral college misfire in play), or we can see Trump’s lead grow to four points. Out of all the negative trends I’ve found for Biden this one is easily his most realistic to turn around, but the numbers are pretty clear that it’s not nothing either that he is trailing with four months left.

PS: I should probably also point out that while plenty of incumbents have lost the first debate and still gone on to win the election (Reagan, W Bush, Obama), those examples all lead polls by the time of the debate. Those who trailed going into and lost the debate (Ford, Carter, HW Bush, Trump) all went on to lose the election. Biden is in the group of the latter.

 

 

– Americans Remain In An Elongated Period Of Anti Status Quo Sentiment

One thing to keep in mind about the mood of the electorate is that regardless who has been in power, Americans have been unhappy with the state of the nation more than not post the 2004 Bush re-election. Since then only twice has a sitting president been in the green in approval numbers in time for an election. Thus, the party that has held the White House has arguably last seen a good year nearly twelve years ago during the 2012 Obama re-election that saw Democrats hold the White House and senate. Every single cycle since has seen the party that controls the executive branch lose control of something. Democrats lost the Senate in 2014 and then the White House in 2016. Republicans lost the house in 2018 and then both the White House and senate in 2020. Democrats then lost the house in 2022. That’s a long period of anti status quo sentiment and unfortunately for Biden it seems to have only stuck around this cycle. There’s been a persistent malaise among voters in the country that has gone back a decade-plus. It kind of makes Obama’s 2012 triumph only look more impressive in hindsight.

My thinking had been this streak has to eventually come to an end, in the same way I kept pondering that we were getting overdue for an incumbent President losing their re-election bid going into the 2020 cycle; or being arguably overdue for a quieter less wave-type midterm going into 2022. But with just four months to go the electorate is not happy and when the electorate is not happy it doesn’t tend to be good for the party in the White House. Even if you bring up Democrats’ overperformance in 2022, it doesn’t change the fact Biden’s unpopularity cost them the house. It’s very hard for me to see how Biden can win re-election if this mood amongst voters doesn’t change dramatically in the coming weeks and months of the campaign.

But after watching Bush and Obama have to fight for their e-elections, and watching Trump go down to defeat, it has not been since Clinton’s 1996 re-election twenty-eight years ago that we’ve seen an incumbent basically cruise-control to a second term. I was really curious if the right pieces would land on the board to make this streak of competitive races for the incumbents end, but it seems like I’ll have to wait a little longer to see another such easy win for a sitting president happen again.

 

 

– Is There Any Hope Biden Can Still Come From Behind And Win This?

Clearly there’s a lot of troubling signs for Biden’s chances to win this rematch. But to be fair there are some legitimate potential silver linings for the president that in hindsight could prove to tell us a comeback was plausible. So I listed as many as I could find…

1. It’s extremely rare for an incumbent who defeated their predecessor to lose re-election. It’s happened literally twice in a century – in 1980 when Reagan ousted Carter who ousted Ford in 1976, and in 1892 when Cleveland ousted Harrison who ousted Cleveland himself in 1888.

2. We tend to re-elect our incumbents. A little over 60% of the time we have re-elected our incumbent presidents going all the way back to Washington, and that figure only goes up when only looking at the modern age post-WWII era.

3. Overall economic indicators actually favor a Biden re-election. Public sentiment about the economy is in the dumps and inflation has hurt wallets, but objective economic data would historically point to a 2-4 point Biden victory according to the latest numbers from models that look at this.

4. Non-polling based, historical-trends based predictive models, with great track records, are bullish on Biden. This includes a hobbyist model I created that strictly looks at historical trends, and even with accounting for the history against Biden when it comes to his deep unpopularity, it currently shows Biden is 59% likely to win if I don’t account for current head-to-head polling (Should note this number becomes a 53% likelihood of a Trump win if I did include them).

5. Biden is massively over-performing his approval ratings in ways past presidents could only dream of, thanks to staying competitive with soft disapprovers and “double haters”. As of this writing Biden is over-performing his approval ratings versus his horse race numbers by double digit margins.

6. Biden’s get-out-the vote and on-the-ground operations have been outpacing Trump’s since the start of the year. Biden has field offices across various swing states and reach states including defenses set up in leaning blue states that could get tight. Trump is just getting around to doing this work. In 2020 Trump’s overperformance could have been linked to his team having a better field operation thanks to how both campaigns confronted COVID so differently.

7. With likely lower turnout than the previous election, 2024 could see a repeat of 2022 where persuadable, more college educated, in-tuned with the news, voters help Biden to overperform expectations. Polling and special election trends are clear that lower turnout scenarios would be beneficial for Biden.

8. Presidents tend to get more popular and win late-deciders the closer we get to election day. With Biden’s base so fragmented it’s easy to see a late surge in younger, non-white voters “coming back home”.

9. Since 1992, all but one time (1996), the incumbent president has over-performed polling expectations whether in victory or defeat. Easy to see a scenario Biden is down by 1-2 points come election day but squeaks by with a typical poll error that sees him win by 1-2 points nationally and barely edge out an electoral college win with a slightly reduced electoral college bias from 2020 (Something current modeling over at 538 thinks is likely).

10. Democrats are over-performing down the ballot at some breathtaking levels. The same polls showing Biden in deep trouble show Republicans barely flipping the senate with losses in some major swing states, and still having a very weak house majority. This could be a sign of the room to grow for Biden, or the success of these down-ballot Democratic candidates might actually drag him across the finish line in a perfect storm of circumstances.

11. Trump is still Trump. While currently less unpopular than Biden, his favorables are still not good and no successful challenger to a sitting president has had negative favorables, even Biden in 2020 had a slight positive favorable line. His personality and legal troubles probably play a part in why he’s been struggling to put a race away where he gets to challenge a very unpopular incumbent the public has lost faith in and thinks isn’t mentally all there.

12. Both candidates are not exactly at the top of their health game. It’s unlikely but not impossible that certain health-related circumstances that happen to pop up during the campaign lead to a dramatic shift in voters thinking Trump is the one they fear can’t finish an entire term. It should be noted that the recent post-debate CBS poll found that while around two-thirds had concerns about Biden’s mental sharpness – half of the same respondents felt the same about Trump.

 

– The Clock Is Ticking, And Time Is Running Out

While I’m sympathetic to arguments Biden can still turn this around, I hope the evidence I’ve presented in this piece at the very least helps you understand why there is a strong argument that Trump needs to start being treated as the clear favorite in the race. As much history as Biden is fighting against, his margin of error for a comeback is larger now than it will be the closer we get to election day if these trends in favor of Trump don’t start to change. The clock is ticking and before you know it the conventions will come and go, Labor Day will arrive, mail ballots will get sent out, and election day will be here. If you truly believe Biden can still win this, the sooner he starts getting momentum the better.

If my early inkling of a Trump victory in November proves wrong I give President Biden all the justification to print this piece out and hold it up at his victory rally in the same way President Truman held the Chicago Tribune’s “Dewey Wins” headline when he won. Not just because I would rightfully have to eat crow, but because if he somehow does win he’ll have pulled off what I believe would be a historic comeback of the likes that would overshadow even Truman’s.