The Shifting Politics of Abortion

The last few weeks have been a bit of an upheaval in abortion politics. Two weeks ago, the Arizona Supreme Court decided that an 1864 law banning all abortions, passed 48 years before Arizona women got the right to vote, was effectively the law of the land.

Attempts by Democrats to repeal that law have failed. Republicans have been scrambling for cover on the issue, notably failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R-Toontown) who made pro-choice noises before affirming her supposed pro-life stance. Soon after, failed Presidential candidate Donald Trump (R-OANN) indicated he would wouldn’t seek an abortion ban if re-elected and almost sounded pro-choice in calling for any ban to kick in toward the middle of the second trimester, all while still taking credit for the Dobbs decision that struck down Roe. This was not long after the Florida Supreme Court signed off on Florida’s ban at six weeks, which is proving unpopular enough that a referendum on the issue is likely to hit the ballot in November.

All of this has given the Democrats high hopes going into what looks to be a tough election year. They face a huge uphill battle to hold the Senate. They are trying to take the House back. And Biden is unpopular and statistically tied with Trump in the election (which actually means he’s losing because Trump can lose the popular vote by five or six points and still win an electoral majority). They feel like if they can make abortion a big part of the campaign, their electoral prospects will improve.

The result is the biggest shift in abortion politics ever. Republicans are suddenly on the defensive and Democrats are on the attack. But … this is not surprising. This change in the politics of abortion in the post-Dobbs era was as predictable as an Atlanta Hawks playoff flop. While Roe still stood:

• The Republicans were free to say anything they wanted on abortion, knowing they would never have to deliver. Oh, they could nibble on the edges of the issue with things like parental notification laws. But, in the end, Roe kept them from enacting the most unpopular parts of their agenda and gave them someone else to blame for it. Abortion moderates could vote for them knowing it was unlikely they’d ever fulfill their promises.
• The Democrats constantly threatened that Roe would be struck down if Republicans won even a single election. But for forty years, nothing happened. The threat was abstract. In the meantime, they were forced to demonstrate their abortion bona fides by taking positions that were popular with the base but unpopular with the public, such as legalizing abortion up until birth. Even worse, cultural figures would have “salutes to abortion” and “shout your abortion” that tried to portray the destruction of a potential human life as a good thing, which riled the mushy middle, where most Americans have settled on this issue. Many people see abortion as necessary; few see it as something worth celebrating.

Post-Dobbs, things have changed. The Democrats can now take defensible positions on the issue while the Republicans suddenly have to deliver what they have been promising. And since complete bans on abortion poll at about 13% while “legal up to 20 weeks; legal for reasons thereafter” polls at 70%, the Democrats are on the attack.

In this light, what Trump and Lake are doing is, on the surface at least, sensible — stating a personal opposition to abortion while touting limits as a political necessity. In fact, this is where the vast majority of the public is. Even most “pro-life” people would accept abortion early in pregnancy if it were banned late. And most “pro-choice” people would accept limits as long as it remains legal early and there are exceptions. This is a standard political two-step that politicians have been doing since Urgh ran for Chief of Olduvai Gorge. The Democrats did this for years with “safe, legal and rare”.

The problem for the Republicans is this: for twenty years, the GOP has portrayed any compromise on any issue as RINOism in the First Degree. For eight years, the Republicans have burned every principle — morality in high office, fiscal conservatism, balanced budgets, free trade — on the alter of Trumpism. Abortion was the only issue they did not sacrifice and the only issue they can claim actual legislative success on. For eight years, the Republican Party has moved away from capable politicians to people like … well, like Donald Trump and Kari Lake — political populists unmoored from anything approaching a principle defined entirely by their demonization of the other side.

In this environment, it is almost impossible for any Republican to compromise on the issue without enraging a base that has come to expect absolute adherence to whatever they believe at the moment. But it’s also almost impossible for them to get elected without compromising on the issue. In very red states, they can win. In blue states, they aren’t winning anyway. But in purple states like Arizona, the issue is likely to be a political death sentence. Republicans can’t win the primary without being extremely pro-life. But they can’t win the general while being extremely pro-life.

Trump is in a unique position on this, of course, because the Cult would support him even if he were performing abortions on the White House lawn. Furthermore, both pro-choice and pro-life advocates know that anything he says about the issue is meaningless. If the Republicans take Congress and pass a national abortion law, he will sign it no matter what he says. He will continue to appoint Federalist Society judges who will do whacky things like decide an 1864 law is governing precedent or that they have the power to overturn a quarter-century old FDA decision based on junk science. So the end result, like everything in this era, may be to advance his political prospects while damaging the rest of the GOP.

The gripping hand with Trump and abortion is that he does not really care about the issue. He’s not a woman. He’s not a fetus. And abortion will always be legal for the rich. So I expect him to bend and sway with whatever populist breeze that blows. He can do that because of his devoted following. The rest of the GOP can’t. And that may make a big difference come November.