Back towards the middle-end of September after all the major festivals (Save for New York and AFI) held their screenings, my analysis on the Best Picture race was that the Summer blockbuster hit Oppenheimer remained the movie to beat after early frontrunner Killers Of The Flower Moon seem to falter a bit at the top. Post-Halloween and with the kick-off to critical groups’ awards, AFI and NBR top 10 mentions, and nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and Hollywood Creative Alliance just a month-plus away, I still believe Christopher Nolan’s latest is the movie to beat. The praise for the movie among industry giants, its historic box office haul, its great audience scores, and the feeling it’s “Nolan’s moment” continue to make it the frontrunner.
But like with The Fabelmans a year ago I still don’t feel confident in it as the frontrunner. Gun to head it’d be my prediction as of this writing, but I’m not sure I’ll feel the same way come March. For one Oppenheimer is trying to become the first non-festival premiering film to win the Oscar since The Departed nearly two decades ago – even last year’s early-released whacky genre-comedy winner, Everything Everywhere All At Once, premiered at a festival. Two, only once in the expanded ballot era (That time being when Birdman won) has the Best Picture winner’s director been nominated for the prize before – Nolan was nominated before for his great directorial work with Dunkirk. That said given what a monumental achievement Oppenheimer is I wouldn’t be surprised if this is an outlier year in regards to those two patterns. There’s a very real chance this is our modern day Lawrence Of Arabia.
Looking at the rest of the Picture lineup I believe Scorsese’s latest in Killers Of The Flower Moon, the whacky-looking comedic feminist fairy tale Poor Things, and the crowd pleasing Christmas flick The Holdovers are absolute locks to get nominated. After that we have the musical adaptation of The Color Purple which I’m still gambling on being a huge thing even though as I write this no one has seen it yet (Though screenings will begin Thanksgiving week) and its awards’ strategy so far has left much to be desired if you ask me. Barbie should be safe as the populist pick of the year, and Netflix’s top contender in the Leonard Bernstein bio-pic Maestro seems very likely to get in. After those seven slots things get more dicey.
Surprise comedy hit American Fiction has stormed into the race after winning audience awards at Toronto, Middleburg, and Mill Valley film festivals. It could be a sleeper top-tier contender if this momentum keeps up. I’ve replaced Rustin (Which has seen a steep drop since my last projections in its chances to get in) with the crowd pleasing social satire. After that its all about which smaller studio acclaimed hit can get the final two slots. I currently have A24’s intimate and small critical darling Past Lives and the Cannes festival winner Anatomy Of A Fall getting in but Air, Saltburn, The Zone Of Interest, Napoleon, Priscilla, among others are eying those final spots with some longshots hoping for a last second surge when the industry starts attending screening events. The latter include films like The Iron Claw, Wonka, and John Wick: Chapter 4 all which I thought were out of the race but have made some noise to get back into range.
I’ve also begun to look past just the Best Picture race and you will find my current projections for Director, all four acting categories, and the two screenplay categories. This makes up the eight above-the-line races. These races are still VERY much in flux and I have no doubt my final nomination predictions will have changed significantly come late January. Last season we saw seven of these eight races go to one movie, but I’m pretty sure things will be much more competitive this time around as the season progresses.
It’ll be interesting to see where things are when I next update my projections in early December. After all the hub-bub during the festival season, we’re seemingly back to a “calm before the storm” situation. We are a month away from every organization under the sun trying to award their favorite films in a process that will take a little over three months to play out. When we get there, then we’ll really start to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
At this point last year I had correctly predicted 6 of the eventual 10 Picture nominees to get into the race, with the other 4 no lower than the top 20. I also had a few would-be acting nominations off the board or listed outside my predicted 5 for each category. In other words while it may not feel like it given all the festival season buzz, we are still in an insanely early stage and the makeup of the Oscars still has plenty room to change between now and nomination morning.
Best Picture: Tilts Oppenheimer
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 10
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
06. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. American Fiction (+3 Since Last Update)
09. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
11. Air (+1 Since Last Update)
12. Saltburn (+1 Since Last Update)
13. The Zone Of Interest (+2 Since Last Update)
14. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Napoleon (+1 Since Last Update)
16. Priscilla (+1 Since Last Update)
17. Rustin (-9 Since Last Update)
18. The Iron Claw (Returning To The Board Since Last Update)
19. May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
20. All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
21. The Bikeriders (-3 Since Last Update)
22. Nyad (+4 Since Last Update)
23. Ferrari (+6 Since Last Update)
24. The Boy And The Heron (-2 Since Last Update)
25. Perfect Days (-8 Since Last Update)
26. The Promised Land (-3 Since Last Update)
27. Asteroid City (-2 Since Last Update)
28. Wish (+2 Since Last Update)
29. Wonka (Returning To The Board Since Last Update)
30. John Wick: Chapter 4 (Returning To The Board Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Bottoms, Dumb Money, Elemental, Hitman, Next Goal Wins, Origin, The Killer, The Taste Of Things
Best Director: Tilts Nolan
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer
02. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things
04. Alexander Payne; The Holdovers
05. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Greta Gerwig; Barbie
07. Celine Song; Past Lives
08. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest
09. Bradley Cooper; Maestro
10. Blitz Bazawule; The Color Purple
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Cord Jefferson; American Fiction
12. Emerald Fennell; Saltburn
13. Ridley Scott; Napoleon
14. Sofia Coppola; Priscilla
15. Wim Wenders; Perfect Days
Best Actor: Tilts Cooper
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Bradley Cooper; Maestro
02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer
03. Leonardo DiCaprio; Killers Of The Flower Moon
04. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers
05. Colman Domingo; Rustin
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction
07. Barry Keoghan; Saltburn
08. Joaquin Phoenix; Napoleon
09. Teo Yoo; Past Lives
10. Andrew Scott; All Of Us Strangers
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Zac Efron; The Iron Claw
12. Austin Butler; The Bikeriders
13. Adam Driver; Ferrari
14. Mads Mikkelsen; The Promised Land
15. Koji Yakusho; Perfect Days
Best Actress: Tilts Stone
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things
02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Fantasia Barrino; The Color Purple
04. Carey Mulligan; Maestro
05. Natalie Portman; May December
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall
07. Greta Lee; Past Lives
08. Margot Robbie; Barbie
09. Annette Benning; Nyad
10. Cailee Spaeny; Priscilla
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Teyana Taylor; One Thousand And One
12. Jodie Comer; The Bikeriders
13. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor; Origin
14. Helen Mirren; Golda
15. Trace Lysette; Monica
Best Supporting Actor: Tilts Downey JR
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Robert Downey JR; Oppenheimer
02. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things
04. William Dafoe; Poor Things
05. Ryan Gosling; Barbie
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Charles Melton; May December
07. Colman Domingo; The Color Purple
08. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction
09. Dominic Sessa; The Holdovers
10. Matt Damon; Oppenheimer
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. John Magaro; Past Lives
12. Paul Mescal; All Of Us Strangers
13. Glenn Howerton; Blackberry
14. Jesse Plemons; Killers Of The Flower Moon
15. Jacob Elordi; Priscilla
Best Supporting Actress: Tilts Brooks
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple
02. Taraji P Henson; The Color Purple
03. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers
04. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer
05. Julianne Moore; May December
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Viola Davis; Air
07. Jodi Foster; Nyad
08. Vanessa Kirby; Napoleon
09. Penelope Cruz; Ferrari
10. American Ferrera; Barbie
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Racheal McAdams; Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret
12. Cara Jade Myers; Killers Of The Flower Moon
13. Rosamund Pike; Saltburn
14. Claire Foy; All Of Us Strangers
15. Niecy Nash-Betts; Origin
Best Original Screenplay: Tilts The Holdovers
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. The Holdovers
02. Barbie
03. Past Lives
04. Anatomy Of A Fall
05. Air
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Maestro
07. Saltburn
08. May December
09. Napoleon
10. Priscilla
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Rustin
12. The Iron Claw
13. The Bikeriders
14. Asteroid City
15. Origin
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tilts Oppenheimer
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Poor Things
04. American Fiction
05. The Zone Of Interest
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. The Color Purple
07. All Of Us Strangers
08. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
09. Nyad
10. Ferrari
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret
12. Blackberry
13. Wonka
14. Next Goal Wins
15. Dumb Money
