The last time I sat down and wrote about the upcoming race for the Best Picture Oscar statuette was way back in March weeks after Everything Everywhere All At Once won the grand prize, back when it was more about fun reckless speculation than serious predicting. Personal struggle through a rough Summer led me to take a break, which meant I missed out getting to opine during the early stages of the race that saw “Barbenheimer” shake the race up a bit followed by the industry strikes that caused a major player like Dune: Part Two to leave the race and instead opt to compete for next season. My return comes just in time for the come and go of the major fall film festivals, and now we’ve officially entered what I like to call the fall film festivals high. That period between the Summer box office and awards season ramping up around Thanksgiving where the reception at the festivals control the prism from which the race is seen through.
At about this time last year I had correctly placed six of the ten eventual Picture nominees in my top ten. I had correctly placed all ten of them within my top twenty. Even more impressive, it was at about this time two years ago that I had correctly predicted eight of the eventual nominees in my predicted ten. That means that chances are that if you’re not within striking distance by now, its gonna’ be tough to get in. Even more tough for the longshots will be the fact that unlike last year the Fall Festivals delivered and many top-tier contenders remain so as the studios start to plan out their strategies and priorities. This means I don’t think the race is going to produce as populist a lineup as we got last year, so expect a more traditional slate of contenders to be announced come nominations morning. But at the same time we do have the ongoing mystery that are the strikes and how that might cause some more major delays given how key star power can be to help these films campaign for awards. Hell there’s a shot even the Oscars ceremony itself could still get delayed by a month or so.
Looking at the race and where it stands today I currently have 35 films among 7 tiers that I consider to be competitive for a Best Picture nomination at differing levels. From films almost assured a spot in the race to movies with very long odds but which I can still foresee a path for if the perfect storm of events happen. Here’s my take on the Best Picture race in mid-September.
Tier 1: The Post Fall Film Festivals Frontrunners
– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 01. Oppenheimer; 02. Killers Of The Flower Moon; 03. Poor Things; 04. The Holdovers; 05. The Color Purple
– Details: Back in March and holding serve after a great reception at Cannes a few months later, the new Scorsese flick Killers Of The Flower Moon seemed like the early frontrunner to beat. But then Nolan’s Oppenheimer not only released during the Summer to rave reviews but it ended up being one of the biggest box office hits of the year and garnered great audience scores to boot. The feeling that its “Nolan’s moment” has led it to be the undeniable current frontrunner to win the grand prize followed by the aforementioned previous top contender. But if ‘Killers” and ‘Oppy’ enjoyed a great Summer coming out, the new film from Yorgos in Poor Things came out of the fall festivals as the most raved about among their lineups. I have questions as to whether the Academy will give the grand prize to a weird genre film in back-to-back years, and I wonder if audiences will respond to this one as well as they did last year’s winner, but the Emma Stone led gothic comedy has positioned itself to be competitive for a win. And of course we have the prototypical crowd pleaser in The Holdovers which has jumped up many spots from where I had it back in the Spring thanks to great word of mouth and awards buzz after it placed among the top three of TIFF’s audience award. Rounding out the top five is The Color Purple which I remain bullish on potentially being huge, but the strikes could still delay it to next year.
Tier 2: The Post Fall Film Festivals Heavyweight Contenders
– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 06. Barbie; 07. Maestro; 08. Rustin; 09. Past Lives; 10. Anatomy Of A Fall
– Details: I had doubts as to whether Barbie could get into the Picture race when Warner Brothers had both The Color Purple and Dune: Part Two to campaign, but given the latter’s confirmed delay and the former’s potential delay, we can now safely predict the highest grossing film of the year will be the populist contender of the year. I’ve seen some bullish its a top five contender but I think the fact its ultimately an IP product will cause it to hit some ceilings – not to mention Poor Things seems to have kneecap a lot of its tech potential and taken its feminist driven narrative. Meastro continues to look like Netflix’s top priority after it garnered positive word of mouth at Venice. Netflix’s other priority comes in with Rustin which I think many are underrating as a Picture player even though we always get that conventional biopic that the industry loves more than critics. I’ve finally given up and placed A24’s Past Lives in the predicted ten but I continue to think this is a weaker player than others think it is given how small and intimate it is – plus it made no real noise at the box office. And of course we always get that one international player and this year it seems like France’s courtroom thriller Anatomy Of A Fall could be that film barring them choosing another film as their representative by the time this publishes.
Tier 3: The Post Fall Film Festivals “On The Bubble” Contenders
– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 11. American Fiction; 12. Air; 13. Saltburn; 14. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse; 15. The Zone Of Interest
– Details: In a major stunner MGM’s comedic satire on black art American Fiction won the top spot as the TIFF audience choice. More than not the top choice goes on to be nominated for Picture and the last few years has even left the fall festivals the frontrunner, but this movie is smaller and was never meant to be a major player by MGM so for now I’m cautious as to whether it gets in or not but I do have it on the borderline of making it. The crowd pleaser that is Air keeps hanging around but its early release has kept it struggling from being a major player just yet. I still see a world where Amazon pushes it late and it finds a way in, but right now it feels like its on the outside looking in. MGM’s would-be top priority in Saltburn has proven a divisive player which has me thinking this will be this year’s Babylon in that it’ll have its passionate fans but ultimately come up short of a nomination. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse remains the likely Animated Feature winner and the strongest chance at us seeing an animated film get in the race, but I think its early release is costing it a better chance to get in. And then we have The Zone Of Interest which has great reviews, but the subject matter about following a Nazi family that lives next to a concentration camp and the slow burn pacing makes me think it’ll be one of those “critics love it, audiences are bored by it” films.
Tier 4: The Post Fall Film Festivals Longshots On The Verge Of Being Taken Serious
– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 16. Napoleon; 17. Priscilla; 18. The Bikeriders; 19. May December; 20. All Of Us Strangers
– Details: Apple’s Napoleon looks like it’ll be coming out this year and could end up being Ridley Scott’s ticket back to the Oscars. Coming off right after we saw a film about Elvis get into the Picture race last year, a movie about his wife Priscilla has garnered such strong word of mouth out of Venice it could be on the verge of being an actual Picture player as well. The Bikeriders enjoyed some early good word of mouth out of Telluride, but the buzz has died down for it a bit – lets see how it fares when it releases wide. Netflix’s May December is likely more of an acting vehicle than a Picture player but Hayne’s films have come close to a nomination before. And then there’s the incredibly well reviewed queer romantic fantasy All Of Us Strangers which could be one major push by critics away from being Searchlight’s second competitor in the race.
Tier 5: The Post Fall Film Festivals Longshots Within Striking Distance
– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 21. Perfect Days; 22. The Boy And The Heron; 23. The Promised Land; 24. The Taste Of Things; 25. Asteroid City
– Details: Japan’s official submission for their International Feature is Perfect Days which it chose over bigger titles with bigger name Directors, which makes me suspect it has a shot to take off as the industry pick for their favorite International feature. Miyazaki’s latest in The Boy And The Heron placed as a TIFF audience choice and could be trouble for ‘Spiderverse’ as the top Animated contender. Denmark’s The Promised Land could be one to watch, and if France stuns us and picks The Taste Of Things over Anatomy Of A Fall, it could be a major International player. Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City has proven not to be Focus Feature’s priority, but I can’t say its completely out of the race just yet.
Tier 6: The Post Fall Film Festivals Longshots With A Slim Path
– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 26. Nyad; 27. Hitman; 28. The Killer; 29. Ferrari; 30. Origin
– Details: I think a slim path exists for three other Netflix fall festival titles in Nyad which could be Annette Benning’s vehicle to an Oscar, or Richard Linklater’s surprise festival hit Hitman, or the newest David Fincher in The Killer. The former of those last two being a comedy and the latter more of a thriller but touching on a similar subject matter. Ferrari could be Michael Mann’s ticket to the Oscars but the movie seems to be a pretty conventional film with more praise for Penelope Cruz as an acting contender than the film itself. And then we have Origin which is Ava DuVernay’s newest film that got a pretty good reception at the festivals but its semi-documentary nature could be a hinderance to its chances.
Tier 7: The Longest Of Longshots With Some Slim Hope Left
– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 31. Elemental; 32. Wish; 33. Bottoms; 34. Next Goal Wins; 35. Dumb Money
– Details: Among the longest of longshots that I nonetheless think have a very slim path still available to them we have the two big Disney animated players in Elemental and Wish but the former needs a major late push and the latter probably needs to become a major cultural moment when it releases later in the year. Bottoms has garnered amazing reviews and has actually done real well as a small film at the box office and I wonder if a big critics push could give it a chance to rocket up the board in the coming months. Then we have two crowd pleasing ensemble films with mixed reviews that could prove to be more popular with the industry in Next Goal Wins and Dumb Money. I should note I find it very hard to see any of these five staying on the board much longer, but I’m just not quite ready to take them off yet either. Let’s see if any of these are still around when I take a look at the Picture race again after Halloween.
Off The Board Since The Last Update In March
– Beau Is Afraid: Not Accessible At All; Came And Went
– Blitz: Not Releasing This Year
– Bob Marley – One Love: Seemingly Not Releasing This Year
– Creed III: Came And Went
– Dune: Part Two: Not Releasing This Year
– Fast X: Unsurprisingly Wasn’t Anything Awards-Buzzy
– Golda: Came And Went
– Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny: Came And Went
– John Wick – Chapter 4: Came And Went
– Joy Ride: Came And Went
– Magazine Dreams: Not A Priority For Searchlight Pictures Post-Majors’ Issues
– Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One: Didn’t Become Next Top Gun: Maverick
– Our Apprenticeship: Not Releasing This Year
– Shirley: Not Releasing This Year
– Spaceman: Not Releasing This Year
– Talk To Me: Came And Went
– Tetris: Not A Priority For Apple Studios Anymore; Came And Went
– The Book Of Clearance: Seemingly Not Releasing This Year
– The Iron Claw: Doesn’t Seem To Have Any Real Path To Be A Picture Contender
– The Little Mermaid: Unsurprisingly Wasn’t Anything Awards-Buzzy
– The Piano Lesson: Not Releasing This Year
– The Way Of The Wind: Not Releasing This Year
– The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar: More Of A Shorts Collection Than A Feature
– Theatre Camp: Came And Went
– Wonka: Doesn’t Seem To Have Any Real Path To Be A Picture Contender
Having read the book and being a huge Scorsese fan, I’m really looking forward to seeing Killers of the Flower Moon. Such a crazy, brutally tragic story in his hands is a must watch.
Also want to see what Ridley Scott does with Napoleon.
I read the book and love Scorsese, so I’m excited to watch Killers of the Flower Moon. A bizarre, brutally terrible narrative in his hands is must-see.